I have been following with interest the discussion regarding possible trades, and what Erie's strategy should be, both approaching the trade deadline and for next year.
I think it is very hard to posit specific potential trades, as we do not know what is going on behind the scenes. That is not to say that it isn't entertaining to think about what could be.
To me, though, the question is a more general one. i.e., whether Erie should be a buyer, a seller, or stand pat. I think the answer to that question depends on what is a realistic end game for Erie in the Western Conference.
Today, January 1, Erie sits in the fourth seed with 40 points. Of the teams ahead of them, Windsor is a lock for the first or second seed, as it has all but wrapped up the West Division title. For Erie to move up, it would need to catch either London or Kitchener, or both.
Erie is 13 points behind Kitchener and 18 points behind London, with three games in hand on each. There is no indication that either of those two teams is running out of gas. Given our injury situation and less than adequate BUG, I cannot see any realistic trade(s) that would enable Erie to close the gap between Erie and either of those two teams. As a practical matter, I think Erie's ceiling is the No. 4 seed.
On the other end, Erie is 15 points ahead of the No. 9 team in the conference, Owen Sound, with three games in hand. Even if Erie did absolutely nothing to improve its roster, I cannot see Erie falling so far as to not make the playoffs.
Saginaw is presently the fifth seed with 35 points, Flint is the sixth seed with 34 points, Sarnia is the seventh seed with 31 points and Sault Ste. Marie is the eighth seed with 30 points. Erie has three games in hand on each of those teams, except Sarnia. Erie has six games in hand on Sarnia.
It is hard to say, but I think Erie can hang unto the fourth seed even if it makes no moves. But regardless of whether if it does or does not hang unto the fourth seed, it is still headed toward a first round match up against most likely Saginaw or Flint. The only difference might be home ice advantage.
The winner of that first round match up will almost certainly be facing London in the second round. Even if Erie upgrades substantially, I do not see Erie beating London in the second round.
In sum, the only reasons I see for Erie upgrading at the trade deadline would be: (1) to enhance its chances to secure home ice advantage in the first round; and (2) to enhance its chances of beating Saginaw/Flint in the first round.
Conversely, if Erie stands pat, it will still be in the playoffs, will still have a decent chance of hanging unto the fourth seed, will still most likely be facing either Saginaw or Flint, and will still have a decent chance of winning that first round match up.
I do not wish to overly downplay the value in getting to the second round. That would be a significant step forward, given where the franchise has been since it last won the OHL title.
That being said, if this analysis of the situation is correct, the relative value of upgrading versus standing pat simply is not that great. It does not justify spending a lot of assets that mortgages the future. At the moment, I would say that making a move to upgrade the BUG that does not cost a lot of assets should be done, if for no other reason than to avoid running Erliden into the ground and getting some insurance against an injury to Erliden. Beyond that, I think any trade would need to be extremely attractive and not cost a lot to be justified.
Erie has three more games before the trade deadline on January 10, at Kitchener on the 3rd, home against Windsor on the 4th, and at Guelph on the 8th. It shall be very interesting to see how those games go, and what impact they might have on what Erie does at the deadline.
