Since nelli closed the off-season thread right after my post…
My last thoughts before the season starts, which is what I said a few months back: Spence, Sova, Lalonde imo are 3 most important players for this team in terms of floor vs ceiling. If at the end of the year, Spence established himself as a PPG player, Sova is a legit 1/2, and Lalonde is at least middle of the pack among starters - then Erie probably had a successful season. Conversely, if those 3 don’t perform, particularly with Sova and Lalonde, I don’t see how they can be anything more than a team fighting around a 7-9 seed yet again.
If you look back on the best team since the rebuild, 2019-20, that team went 26-26-4-7 in a COVID shortened year and in a tough division with what we now know is a bad head coach and probably a bad coaching staff overall. They also lost what seemed like a record amount of extra time, close games. This Erie roster has a chance to be at least as talented collectively as that team but imo has far more depth. Not to mention their coaching, even if average, is better than what they had in 2019-20 since that’s a low bar to cross. Imo having a full season of games, more depth, and a better coaching staff could equate to 10-15 more wins compared to that 2019-20 team.
I also want to put on the record that there are no longer size issues with this team. In 2019-20, Erie had 5 players (4 forwards) that were 5’9 or below and a total of 12 players that were 5’11 or below. Around that time, I said they needed to address this and flip the roster but that it would take time - you can’t just completely flip the roster overnight. They started making some progress in 2021-2022, having 6 players (all forwards) at 5’9 or below and a total of 8 players that were 5’11 or below. But I said from the beginning it would probably be an issue until 2022 or 2023 because it takes time to correct those numbers. Now, here we are. Yes, the SB hiring helped but it was already trending this way for a while and DB has been on record with it. Regardless of SB, they would be in this spot. The start of this year, there will be a maximum of 2 players (Bressette, Edwards) at 5’9 or below and only 5 players (all forwards) at 5’11 or below. This is very much normal when compared to much of the league and they no longer have size issues.
I think the combination of more size, potential for more high end talent, better depth overall, and a steady, veteran coach could see the team surprise everyone. The hard part is they play in the toughest division vs for example, like playing in the East division, which probably gives them at least 4-5 more wins. Combine a tough division with the last 5 years, basically resulting in a losing culture and PTSD, and it gives me some pause. It wouldn’t shock me if this team competes for a 4-5 seed, assuming a lot of things go right. I am predicting them to be closer to a 7th seed because of the last 5 years. But I’ll admit, the vibe with this team overall feels promising
Lets have a great season!!
