Erie Otters 2022-23 Off-Season Thread (Part 2)

[Mata]

Misiak has commited to Erie.

Watched his interview and my takeaway: It sounds like this was heavily influenced by Chicago as a place he could come, get a ton of ice, and develop for the next level.

It may not make sense from an age perspective, but only time will tell in how we perform in the upcoming season.

 

[OHL4Life]

Watched his interview and my takeaway: It sounds like this was heavily influenced by Chicago as a place he could come, get a ton of ice, and develop for the next level.

It may not make sense from an age perspective, but only time will tell in how we perform in the upcoming season.

he played pro in europe so he was not eligible for an ncaa commit.

 

[SeniorJuniorFan]

Congratulations to Malcolm Spence on scoring spectacular OT gold medal winner CAN vs. CZE at the Gretzky/Hlinka U-18 tournament. You just might have a player there!

 

[I Loveallsports]

Malcolm Spence wins it in OT as Canada beats Czechia to win Hlinka Gretzky Cup | TSN

Forward Malcolm Spence scored a game-winner with seven seconds left in the first overtime period as Canada beat Czechia 3-2 to capture gold at the Hlinka Gretzky Cup on Saturday.

www.tsn.ca

 

[Bra Wavers]

Any chance Landon Watson gets signed by the Otters?
He's a PA boy and a big Dman that Burnett would like.

 

[ohloutsider]

Any chance Landon Watson gets signed by the Otters?
He's a PA boy and a big Dman that Burnett would like.

Stan- George what's in a name anyway?!?!

 

[Bra Wavers]

Stan- George what's in a name anyway?!?!

haha.....brain fart
btw I think Burnett would like him just as much as Butler

 

[dirty12]

I think it will be very interesting to see where people line up, but I can't imagine the 1st overall import going to the 3rd line especially after being drafted in the 2nd round by the Blackhawks.

What ripple down effects it will cause is also going to shakeup some veterans and how someone like Saganiuk fits into the scheme as they now have listed Terrance, Fimis, Misiak, McDonald, Edwards, and the top overall u18 draft pick Brett Hammond as Centers. Outside of Terrance, Fimis, and Misiak I'd have to say Saganiuk is probably our 4th best center, but as an OA, that's not very appealing to keep if we are looking to make playoffs this year and maybe have a deeper run next.

Curiously enough, Gilmartin may be in the same boat as Saganiuk being an OA player but at winger. I could see Molnar, Bressette, Alfano, and Spence ahead of him which means he could be looming comfortably at a 3rd line spot and is that where you want an OA?

Sure, OAs on a 3rd line that is equal to the 2nd line shows the Otters’ outstanding depth. Though trading one of Bressette or Gilmartin would make sense.
Depth chart could look something like this?
Molnar-Terrance-Misiak
Spence-Fimis-Alfano
Gilmartin-Bressette-Sagniuk-Smith
Artichuk-McDonald-Hammond-Rolston
Edwards, Signoretti

Both him and Colby could be kept for more of a mentorship type role for younger players on lines 3/4, but that all depends on how our younger kids progressed. We had a lot of 1st year players see a lot of ice and it could bode poorly for our OA group.

 

[ZinErie]

When does training camp start?

 

[OffIceMan]

When does training camp start?

Not sure of the exact date, but there will be scrimmages on the 28th and 29th. Both days have a 9:00 scrimmage. 28th scrimmage at 4:00 29th scrimmage at 3:00. Not sure if open to the public though (in years past they have been).

 

[NOA]

Almost that time of year..

Overall, I don’t know how I feel about the team going into camp. On one hand they have some real talent in the forward group for the first time in a long time but on the other hand, I’m very skeptical of their backend/goalies. While coaching should be more steady, the coaches are defensive minded which clashes with the strength of this team. It really comes down to development of the young talent they do have. I’m somewhat confident they will be more disciplined and structured overall, but will that be enough to generate wins consistently if the young talent doesn’t develop?

Potential lineup:

Spence - Terrance - Misiak
Molnar - Fimis - Bressette
Smith - Saganiuk - Alfano
Artichuk - McDonald - Hammond
Royston

Daviault - Sova
Schaefer - Johnston
Henry - Sauder

Considering they spent a 1 overall import pick on a 19 year old, Misiak better be top 6. Though Gilmartin is probably better than Saganiuk, off size alone, Erie likely owes LDN a conditional 3rd in 2025 if Gilmartin is back. Imo, with the limited assets thanks to DB’s bad management, I don’t think Gilmartin is worth that as a middle 6 forward. Saganiuk fits better on a third line and he’s basically free in the sense that you don’t lose another asset to retain him.

I think you have to keep Johnston on the backend because 1) you need some experience there if you plan on having at least 2 rookies in Henry/Schaefer and 2) they have limited R shot options without him. I’m hoping Johnston can be a veteran safety net for Schaefer.

The success of the team, imo, largely hinges on 3 players: Lalonde, Spence, Sova. Of course others still need to step up but you aren’t going anywhere without major goalie improvement, your best young talent stepping up, and someone becoming a reliable leader on defense.

 

[OffIceMan]

someone becoming a reliable leader on defense.

I nominate Daviault. I watched him a lot after coming over from Sarnia. He's not flashy, but he (almost) always makes a nice 1st pass out of the defensive zone. He also seemed to find a forward that was moving forward and not just standing still. I'd like to see some improvement on his work in the D zone as well. Too many times watching guys behind the net and not being more aware of skaters cutting to the front of the net.

 

[NOA]

I nominate Daviault. I watched him a lot after coming over from Sarnia. He's not flashy, but he (almost) always makes a nice 1st pass out of the defensive zone. He also seemed to find a forward that was moving forward and not just standing still. I'd like to see some improvement on his work in the D zone as well. Too many times watching guys behind the net and not being more aware of skaters cutting to the front of the net.

Well, either way, has to be someone. I mentioned Sova because he has the most talent and the size to be the guy

 

[7D442]

Others thoughts on Gilmartin ?? That extra or conditional 3rd rnd to London matters in these next few years .. not sure if the 35 pt avg or Aprox 15 goals and 20 assist per season is worth it moving forward..about half a ppg avg…

Also what about Messier - he did seem to see more playing time at the end of last year.. wonder what transpires this year for him w that size ???

I think these 2 and others production will matter more this coming year than in years past ..

 

[dirty12]

Others thoughts on Gilmartin ?? That extra or conditional 3rd rnd to London matters in these next few years .. not sure if the 35 pt avg or Aprox 15 goals and 20 assist per season is worth it moving forward..about half a ppg avg…

Also what about Messier - he did seem to see more playing time at the end of last year.. wonder what transpires this year for him w that size ???

I think these 2 and others production will matter more this coming year than in years past ..

Gilmartin is probably playing in the league somewhere meaning London will get that pick. If you think the 3rd pick is that important, at least one of him, Bressette or Sagniuk will need to be traded

 

[NOA]

Gilmartin is probably playing in the league somewhere meaning London will get that pick. If you think the 3rd pick is that important, at least one of him, Bressette or Sagniuk will need to be traded

We never fully know what the conditions actually mean in these scenarios. Like if Erie released him, would they then be obligated to still pay LDN that 3rd if someone picks him up? Not sure and there is really no way of knowing what the conditions even are tied to - though it seems likely that it is tied to him playing an OA season

I don’t think a 3rd in itself is important but once again, because of DB’s impatience and poor asset management - Erie has less picks than they should at this point. Fimis/Gilmartin alone cost them

2nd 2023
2nd 2024
3rd 2024
3rd 2024
2nd 2025
3rd 2025*
3rd 2025
2nd 2026

That’s a lot for 2 guys who don’t swing the needle much in any direction. I would rather they never made those trades and had an additional 2nd round 2007 prospect, and 7 high end picks over the next 3 drafts. In that scenario, you could add a 2005 or 2006 piece this year and be in a good spot to make a small run going into 2024-25 with a core of Spence, Terrance, Schaefer. Unfortunately, they are really not set up for anything in the short term due to roster construction and asset management

This year: too young on defense and no draft picks to make a run but enough talent combined with franchise desperation after an OHL record length playoff drought. Next year they likely lose 2 top 6 forwards and 3/4 in the top 9, plus one would expect they don’t sell enough this year to generate or replace their draft capital to build up next season’s team. Too early to look beyond that.

 

[NOA]

Others thoughts on Gilmartin ?? That extra or conditional 3rd rnd to London matters in these next few years .. not sure if the 35 pt avg or Aprox 15 goals and 20 assist per season is worth it moving forward..about half a ppg avg…

Also what about Messier - he did seem to see more playing time at the end of last year.. wonder what transpires this year for him w that size ???

I think these 2 and others production will matter more this coming year than in years past ..

Regardless of the OA decision - seems likely their top 9 will consist of:

Terrance
Spence
Misiak
Molnar
Fimis
Bressette
Alfano
Saganiuk OR Gilmartin

That leaves a spot for someone in the top 9. It’s possible another player emerges and forces Erie’s hand to go younger, trade off or move on from 2 of their OA forwards. Imo Smith has way more upside, and still has some size, than Messier. Between McDonald, Messier, Artichuk - someone is likely getting released from that group given their age and production.

 

[dirty12]

We never fully know what the conditions actually mean in these scenarios. Like if Erie released him, would they then be obligated to still pay LDN that 3rd if someone picks him up? Not sure and there is really no way of knowing what the conditions even are tied to - though it seems likely that it is tied to him playing an OA season

I don’t think a 3rd in itself is important but once again, because of DB’s impatience and poor asset management - Erie has less picks than they should at this point. Fimis/Gilmartin alone cost them

2nd 2023
2nd 2024
3rd 2024
3rd 2024
2nd 2025
3rd 2025*
3rd 2025
2nd 2026

That’s a lot for 2 guys who don’t swing the needle much in any direction. I would rather they never made those trades and had an additional 2nd round 2007 prospect, and 7 high end picks over the next 3 drafts. In that scenario, you could add a 2005 or 2006 piece this year and be in a good spot to make a small run going into 2024-25 with a core of Spence, Terrance, Schaefer. Unfortunately, they are really not set up for anything in the short term due to roster construction and asset management

This year: too young on defense and no draft picks to make a run but enough talent combined with franchise desperation after an OHL record .length playoff drought. Next year they likely lose 2 top 6 forwards and 3/4 in the top 9, plus one would expect they don’t sell enough this year to generate or replace their draft capital to build up next season’s team. Too early to look beyond that.

If Gilmartin plays in the league, London will get the pick. I can’t imagine anyone, especially M.Hunter would agree to a pick contingent on his player playing only for Erie. If the condition was performance based, it would have very likely started as something like a 6th.

Personnel wise, I think Erie did better in the last year than at any point the previous five.

 

[Mata]

Others thoughts on Gilmartin ?? That extra or conditional 3rd rnd to London matters in these next few years .. not sure if the 35 pt avg or Aprox 15 goals and 20 assist per season is worth it moving forward..about half a ppg avg…

Also what about Messier - he did seem to see more playing time at the end of last year.. wonder what transpires this year for him w that size ???

I think these 2 and others production will matter more this coming year than in years past ..

I don't see Gilmartin filling any need. As others have said, he's not really going to make or break our season as an OA. If he stays in the league and we do have to forfeit a 3rd as a conditional, just throw this into the graveyard of bad decisions from Dave Brown.

Overagers - Bressette is the only one holding value. He should be kept at almost all cost, unless he brings significant trade value to reinvest for the next year or two. Saganiuk and Johnston can bring steady play and mentorship, but again I don't think they are eye popping.

Terrance, Spence, and Bressette will dictate how successful we are up front. We need a massive production increase from Spence and he should hopefully be motivated to lead with Terrance. Molnar, Misiak, Alfano, and Fimis will determine how much we can compete against stronger teams and will all hopefully be above average for us this season. The rest of whomever is selected will be young or role players and we hope they can compete, learn, and grow.

Defensively, as some have stated, Sova will need to be a guy who finally shines alone and carries our back line. After Kyrou was traded his overall production dropped and unless Stan changed how he wanted Sova to play, his growth seemed to slow. Daviault IMO is still behind him. Schaefer has the talent to push himself into the top 3 for defenders and SHOULD be at the very least starting in the top 4. Albloim/Sauder will be the ones who determine if we can compete against stronger teams and we have to hope Henry is ready for this transition (I think he is and will be a pleasant surprise in the back).

Goaltending - I quite literally just give up in wishing and hoping. Perhaps Gibbons unseats Lalonde and Downey? I just don't know.

Overall our talent seems to be the highest in years. A new coach with a track record of consistency throughout the years. No idea what to even expect.

 

[NOA]

Looking at some recent top 3 forward picks and their production in year 2:
Musty: 31pts to 78pts
Ritchie: 45pts to 59pts
Byfield: 61pts to 82pts
Vierling: 27pts to 44pts (only 43gp in yr 2)
Cuylle: 41pts to 42pts
Suzuki: 44pts to 75pts

This doesn’t account for other players picked outside the top 3 making a year 2 leap. In Erie’s own franchise history:
McKegg: 18pts to 85pts
O’Reilly: 52pts to 66pts

Spence is coming off a 42pt rookie season on a pretty bad team with multiple coaches. History suggests that a realistic best case is to see him jump to around 70pts. If Terrance can build off last year and Erie gets reliable depth offense from Bressette, Fimis, imports then I think they could have a solid forward group. But I still have concerns that the coaching staff fits a style that is opposite the team’s strengths and the goaltending has been a complete mess in such a long time, even when they have great teams around them

 

[7D442]

Agree -BUT -we have to somehow have that 3rd conditional built back within a possible trade for Gilmartin though ..even if it’s 4 yrs out down the road we need to not let that 3 rd go … ie have it within the next deal somehow - someway when and if you trade Gilmartin

Just plan on NOT dealing w London anymore - how’s that for simplicity

 

[Mata]

As noted above about what we gave up for Gilmartin and Fimis, the current draft database shows us with no 2nd or 3rd round picks in each of the next 2 seasons.



That's a huge issue for a team wishing to make a run in the next 2 seasons. We will either have to develop assets, trade to aquire more assets, or a combination of both, but DB is just awful and his mismanagement continues to be a very big concern for the franchise as a whole.

 

[dirty12]

I am fairly certain Erie is in possession of Niagara ‘24-2nd
Am I missing someone or net picks from last year’s transactions?

In: Alfano, Daviault, Downey, Fimis, Gilmartin, 4, 5

Out: Kyrou, Lockhart, 2, *3, 6

Seems ok to me.

 

[NOA]

As noted above about what we gave up for Gilmartin and Fimis, the current draft database shows us with no 2nd or 3rd round picks in each of the next 2 seasons.



That's a huge issue for a team wishing to make a run in the next 2 seasons. We will either have to develop assets, trade to aquire more assets, or a combination of both, but DB is just awful and his mismanagement continues to be a very big concern for the franchise as a whole.

The database is not accurate all the time and not a reliable source. I’ve been tracking Erie’s picks on my own for years now which is detailed in the “early standings prediction” thread. The info about picks in the database is wrong. I’m about 99 percent confident with my personal list. Erie has a 2024 2nd, and I believe it is Sarnia’s but regardless they have 1 2nd. The 3rd in 2025 is conditional as part of Gilmartin trade. Likely they lose that but time will tell

 

[dirty12]

The database is not accurate all the time and not a reliable source. I’ve been tracking Erie’s picks on my own for years now which is detailed in the “early standings prediction” thread. The info about picks in the database is wrong. I’m about 99 percent confident with my personal list. Erie has a 2024 2nd, and I believe it is Sarnia’s but regardless they have 1 2nd. The 3rd in 2025 is conditional as part of Gilmartin trade. Likely they lose that but time will tell

There is some weird stuff. The OHL media notes shows Petes traded OS ‘23 to Sudbury in the Stilllman deal even though NB had conditionally traded that pick to Saginaw in the Fantili deal; NB used that pick this past draft.