Epic Calder Race 2024-25

[FlyguyOX]

What are the two asterisk marks referencing for ES GAR?

- An indication of '**' after the titles of the EV Offense or EV Defense plots indicates the player's value for that specific chart was outside the default plotting range. The default plotting range for the component charts (y-axis) are the 2.5% (min) and 97.5% (max) percentiles for the entire specific dataset per position.

They had to expand the default Y axis value range because the values were so poor.

 

[Walksss]

Jesus so much time spent trying to discredit a guy that's gonna win the Calder anyways. Time to find a new hobby guys.

 

[bud12]

Still Hutson to lose!

 

[StrawHatEklund]

This is what he said.




If you can't decipher that he was referring to Michkov when I not only gave you the map but also drove you to the destination I can't help you.

You forgot to include him quoting the user that specifically mentioned both Celebrini and Michkov scoring 14 goals. Again, he replied to me noting that Celebrini has only played 38 games and didn’t reiterate he only meant Michkov when both players are being discussed. So, if he didn’t clarify that, why do you feel the need to speak for him? And in such a condescending manner? You’ve created a pointless discussion arguing on behalf of another user’s point which he could have clarified/specified himself.

Hutson has 3 goals while Celebrini and Michkov have 14. I mean even technically goals >>> assists because there are way more assists than goals.

Celebrini and Michkov score goals, and Hutson doesn't.

If we’re going to value players on goals scored only, 14 goals through almost 50 games played isn’t all that impressive.

 

[Mattb124]

Numbers say Michkov has the top 2way game of all three.

Way to discredit numbers.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

- An indication of '**' after the titles of the EV Offense or EV Defense plots indicates the player's value for that specific chart was outside the default plotting range. The default plotting range for the component charts (y-axis) are the 2.5% (min) and 97.5% (max) percentiles for the entire specific dataset per position.

They had to expand the default Y axis value range because the values were so poor.

Okay - am I correct in assuming the ES includes empty net scenarios in this analysis?

 

[FlyguyOX]

Okay - am I correct in assuming the ES includes empty net scenarios in this analysis?

"Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM) is a method for evaluating skater performance that seeks to improve on the known issues with on-ice metrics (such as raw on-ice Corsi For %, etc.). Raw on-ice skater ratings are inherently impacted by the teammates a player plays with, the opponents they play against, a player’s percentage of zone starts in the offensive or defensive zone, back to back games, etc. There are many aspects of the game that players have no control over. The goal of RAPM is to control for these aspects and provide a better measure of a player’s offensive or defensive ability.

RAPM seeks to account for all these factors by using a statistical technique called linear regression (specifically, a regularized linear regression called ridge regression). This allows us to control for all teammates, opponents, score state, zone starts, etc. at the same time further increasing the accuracy of a specific player’s rating. The method can be used at various strength states and for various metrics. On Evolving-Hockey, we provide 2 strength states (EV & PP/SH) with 3 separate metrics (Goals, Expected Goals, and Corsi). Each regression is run for each season and players are separated by team (traded players are split into multiple versions of themselves – one version for each team they played for in each season)."

RAPM takes into account game state.

More in depth info on GAR here:

Evolving-Hockey

evolving-hockey.com

 

[Beendair Donedat]

I don’t see the other guys that much, other than the highlights, so I can’t truly comment on their performance and what they actually mean to their teams performance.

I can comment on Hutson though, as I watch every Habs game. I think what he is accomplishing as a rookie defenseman, on a team that was one of the worst teams in the league (at one point), is extremely impressive and merits some serious consideration for ROTY.

Hutson didn’t start on the top powerplay. Hutson did not start on the top pairing. He forced the team to play him in those spots because he was just that good. He is usually playing either the most or second most minutes out of all the defensemen on the Habs, as a greatly undersized rookie. That’s incredibly impressive. Playing the harder position AND putting up more points than the other rookie forwards? That is incredibly impressive.

Hutson has made the Habs powerplay lethal, as he’s the QB, and he factors in the majority of the Habs scoring in that regard. He’s on a current 9 game point streak which also coincides with the best hockey the Habs have been playing this season.

Bottom line is that there are few players that affect the overall success of their teams dramatically… and Hutson is one of them, as a rookie. I’ve been watching the Habs for more decades than I care to remember, and I can’t remember one where a rookie defenseman came in and was this crucial to the overall performance of the team. I suppose Chelios would merit some consideration, and even then he didn’t lead all rookies in scoring.

He’s the real deal, and it’s pretty stunning how easily he became a number one defenseman so quickly.

As I wrote previously, no disrespect or criticism towards any of the other fine rookies. I just don’t see enough of them to be a fair judge of abilities. I can say that Hutson is in some elite company as far as what he’s accomplished to date as a rookie, and I won’t be surprised if he hits the 60 point mark. I think he should win it hands down for the previously mentioned arguments, but I realize my scope is limited and understand I’m not as knowledgeable on the others.

 

[waitin425]

Kouleas and Biron were talking on NHL on sirius. Both have Hutson then Wolf for what its worth. Not sure if they get votes.

 

[Domonsky]

The more Hutson is getting points, the more we see all sorts of stats and charts justifying whatever....

I don't recall seen those when Celebrini or Michkov were simply expected to have more points than a defenceman....

 

[Sombastate]

The dick measuring contest in here is wild. There's 4 REALLY good rookies and a bunch of other good ones, too. This is fun.

The die has been cast, let's see how they land.

 

[Kshahdoo]

Dude this isn't the Crosby/Ovi thread and even there it's a bad MJ take and it's much worse here.

There are lots of arguments to be made by a rookie Dman goals compared to forwards has to be one of the worst ones I have seen in this thread.

There's reasons why defensemen never win Hart, and those reasons are exactly what I'm talking about Hutson...

 

[Doom Bot]

There's reasons why defensemen never win Hart, and those reasons are exactly what I'm talking about Hutson...

If a defenceman ever outscored all the forwards he would probably win the Hart unanimously

 

[Frank Drebin]

There's reasons why defensemen never win Hart, and those reasons are exactly what I'm talking about Hutson...

Calder is for most valuable rookie?

Kouleas and Biron were talking on NHL on sirius. Both have Hutson then Wolf for what its worth. Not sure if they get votes.

that’s what i see right now
Wolf firmly in second. The forwards fighting it out for third

Things could look totally different in a week from now

 

[Frank Drebin]

You forgot to include him quoting the user that specifically mentioned both Celebrini and Michkov scoring 14 goals. Again, he replied to me noting that Celebrini has only played 38 games and didn’t reiterate he only meant Michkov when both players are being discussed. So, if he didn’t clarify that, why do you feel the need to speak for him? And in such a condescending manner? You’ve created a pointless discussion arguing on behalf of another user’s point which he could have clarified/specified himself.

I really wasn’t speaking about either player, just that by isolating their seasons to goals scored only makes both of them less impressive then they actually are

 

[thadd]

If a defenceman ever outscored all the forwards he would probably win the Hart unanimously

His name was Bobby Orr.

Most of the kids on these boards now never heard of him.

The only way Hutson doesn't win the Calder at this point is by suffering a long term injury.

Celebrini #2. He is way too hard to play against for a player of his age.

 

[Xirik]

Stats really make a lot of people leave for awhile in this thread.

 

[Frank Drebin]

Stats really make a lot of people leave for awhile in this thread.

Probably don't like the stats they see

 

[wetcoast]

There's reasons why defensemen never win Hart, and those reasons are exactly what I'm talking about Hutson...

This thread is about the Calder which is different than the Hart and no those reasons don't exist in Calder voting.

 

[Tw1ster]

Probably don't like the stats they see

I feel like it’s been like this the whole season. When Michkov was lighting it up, Philly fans were loud, when Celebrini went on a tear, Sharks fans were loudest, and now we’re seeing it with Hutson. At this point, I believe it’s Hutson’s but that could change if another one of those guys goes on a tear. It’s weird how personal it gets for people, it’s really not an important award in the long run

 

[Frank Drebin]

I feel like it’s been like this the whole season. When Michkov was lighting it up, Philly fans were loud, when Celebrini went on a tear, Sharks fans were loudest, and now we’re seeing it with Hutson. At this point, I believe it’s Hutson’s but that could change if another one of those guys goes on a tear. It’s weird how personal it gets for people, it’s really not an important award in the long run

its not at all. And I've stressed that its just a trophy for the best season. Thats it. Doesn't mean player A will be better than player B or even that player A is better than player B right now. Teammates, usage, age, coaching, culture (in the case of Michkov) all play a role in how effective these players are as rookies.

Of all the trophies to get upset about, this one isn't it. There are 4 in contention and all you can do is hope your guy does the best. Cheering against the other guys is dumb.

 

[Bouboumaster]

The haters should just make peace with the fact that Hutson is going to inevitably win that trophy, and start enjoying his glorious rookie year. He's going to win it, because he's putting up numbers that are stacking up on a Historical level. Is he always going to be the best player of his rookie class? Perhaps not, but he is right now, without a shadow of a doubt.

The fact that Hutson is The One, doesn't mean that Wolf, Celebrini or Mitchkov are bad; on the contrary, this Calder race is one of the more interesting in recent years. Celebrini projects to be a great two-way centers, Mitchkov have shown glimpse of brilliance, and Wolf could be the next great goalie. We don't know.
At the end of the day, they might end up with a better career than Hutson.

But as of now, you can bitch and moan all you want, use your weird "advanced stats" that nobody cares about to form some stupid argument that don't make senses to nobody but yourself to justify why Hutson should end up as the second best player, behind your own favorite player, etc, in the end, it ain't going to matter: Hutson is almost PPG as a rookie defenseman, which is f***ing insane, and shows no signs of stopping.

Unless Hutson gets hurt or stops producing, the Calder is his