Epic Calder Race 2024-25

[wetcoast]

Is it still AINEC? @Zegs2sendhelp @wetcoast

You never did answer my question. What in your eyes does Lane have to do to close the AINEC gap?

Haven't you been reading the thread, I have answered plenty of times and the not even close part was a report at the time of a polling of eligible voters, something some people can't wrap their homer heads around.

But I'll rephrase a summary of my views and we will have to wait for the next report on the voters.

Hutson has closed the gap but some of the hyperbole doesn't make it a slam dunk that Hutson is now the frontrunner as Celebrini continues to do less with more.

The statistical record shows this and to be fair I'm not sure how the eligible voters will see this and we will have to wait.

Also Celebrini's 2 way game is going to help his case more than Hutson's defensive game, anyone thinking otherwise is out to lunch....perhaps at Schwartz's deli or some poutine joint.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I think it's fair to say it's not a strength of his game (and that it probably never will be), but his overall game has been a lot better than some people seem to think, especially in the last 6-8 weeks. He's certainly proving he has the ability to play on a top defensive pair alongside a strong skating partner.

Some of the underrating of his defensive play is probably due to the fact that he was really not good defensively in the first 2 months of the season. That likely anchored some poster's opinions early on, but I don't know what people expected from a smaller rookie OFD.

In addition to getting better at picking his spots, I think a lot of his improvement comes from his teammates adapting to his tendencies (and getting away from a sluggish Savard). Hutson is a very unique player stylistically, which I could imagine takes some getting used to. But Montreal forwards seem much more aware that Hutson might pinch below the dots for sustained periods of time, and that good things often come from that so long as they cover for him (which they have done much better lately than they were doing earlier in the year)

With the way he's been utilized within Montreal's system recently, he's played like a top 10-20 dman in the league. Crazy impressive for a rookie dman.

The US is turning into quite the factory for defenseman - look at the depth of U26 dman in the league:

Hughes x2
Hutson
Faber
Vlasic
Sanderson
York
Miller
Lacombe
Kesselring
Lohrei
Samuelsson

Plus they have the following guys in the wings:
Casey
C Hutson
Buium
Rinzel
Chesley

As has been said many times, he will always have limitations in what he can do. Nothing will ever change that.

But he’s a solid blueliner in his own zone. Yeah, he’ll lose some physical battles. Cant clear the crease the way others can. That’s all true. But he’s great at stealing pucks, wins more than his share of corner battles and is all around great at controlling the puck.

 

[wetcoast]

I see much more of a case for wolf atm than celebrini or michkov

He’d have to start 70% of calgarys remaining games while maintaining current stats is the caveat. 42 starts won’t cut it. Has to be 50 ish

GP will probably hold Wolf back but 25 more games in the next 37 isn't out of the question for him either.

 

[coooldude]

To be fair, this is not a "Sharks fan" argument. This is a bad argument used by fans of many teams throughout this thread, and used poorly. For example, earlier on, Michkov fans were arguing that Michkov was putting up his numbers with 3rd line talent while Celebrini had 1st line talent, but doesn't that mean Michkov is getting easier competition and Celebrini is getting harder competition, but then again... around and around in circles. Even you, hinting that Hutson's defensive struggles are Matheson's fault, are kind of saying the same thing.

A better way to try to assess this would be to look at underlying stats (quality of teammates vs quality of opposition, zone starts, etc) rather than just arguing out your ass, but then again, arguing out your ass is easier.

Just following this one up, here is some actual data using teammate/opponent ice time as a proxy for quality of teammates/opposition. Some insight here, although caveats include: 5v5 only and PP does matter; this analysis is averaged over the whole season, and we all know Michkov had a tear, currently has good underlying but not the points, had some very bad stretches, Hutson has been playing amazingly some games and less amazingly others; injuries; Celebrini spikes and slumps, etc. etc. etc.

tl;dr for those of you who don't like charts, Celebrini has the hardest minutes with medium support, Hutson has the best support with medium opposition, and Michkov has the worst support against the easiest competition.

• SJ: Link to chart
• The "Blue Box": Celebrini has the 6th highest average Forward teammate icetime on the team, at ~17:10 avg TOI for his iced F teammates. He has a very middle-of-the-pack D teammate profile, so he's not getting the top pairing supporting him any more than any other player.
• The "White Box": He has the 2nd or 3rd (very close) highest average Defenseman opponent TOI at ~20:30, and the 4th highest F opponent TOI. So, he's matched up against ~1st/2nd line forwards, and top-pair D more than anyone except Granlund, with 2nd line teammates and 2nd pairing D teammates. He's not getting favorable treatment and he's getting top opposition.

• MTL: Link to Chart
• "The Green Box": Hutson plays with top-minutes D men (2nd highest after Carrier) and top-tier forwards (2nd highest after Matheson).
• "The White Box": He plays the 4th hardest minutes against, with Carrier, Guhle, and Matheson all facing roughly the same opponents (F's with 16.4min TOI and D's with 20.5min TOI), and Hutson playing against at F's with just under 16min TOI and D with just over 20min TOI.
• Hutson is playing with his team's best, against his opponents' second lines and pairings. So he's "slightly" sheltered, but not to a big extent.

And why not...

PHI: Link to Chart

• "The Purple Box": Michkov gets the 7th best F teammates and the 12th best D teammates. He's being given 3rd line teammates and bottom line D minutes. Not being put in good positions.
• "The White Box:" Not much different. Michkov gets the 11th "hardest" F opponent minutes, so not hard competition, and he gets the 8th hardest "D" minutes, meaning 7 of his teammates get harder matchups than him.
• He's not being given support, but he's also not playing against difficult competition.

 

[FlyguyOX]

Haven't you been reading the thread, I have answered plenty of times and the not even close part was a report at the time of a polling of eligible voters, something some people can't wrap their homer heads around.

But I'll rephrase a summary of my views and we will have to wait for the next report on the voters.

Hutson has closed the gap but some of the hyperbole doesn't make it a slam dunk that Hutson is now the frontrunner as Celebrini continues to do less with more.

The statistical record shows this and to be fair I'm not sure how the eligible voters will see this and we will have to wait.

Also Celebrini's 2 way game is going to help his case more than Hutson's defensive game, anyone thinking otherwise is out to lunch....perhaps at Schwartz's deli or some poutine joint.

Numbers say Michkov has the top 2way game of all three.

Just following this one up, here is some actual data using teammate/opponent ice time as a proxy for quality of teammates/opposition. Some insight here, although caveats include: 5v5 only and PP does matter; this analysis is averaged over the whole season, and we all know Michkov had a tear, currently has good underlying but not the points, had some very bad stretches, Hutson has been playing amazingly some games and less amazingly others; injuries; Celebrini spikes and slumps, etc. etc. etc.

tl;dr for those of you who don't like charts, Celebrini has the hardest minutes with medium support, Hutson has the best support with medium opposition, and Michkov has the worst support against the easiest competition.

• SJ: Link to chart
• The "Blue Box": Celebrini has the 6th highest average Forward teammate icetime on the team, at ~17:10 avg TOI for his iced F teammates. He has a very middle-of-the-pack D teammate profile, so he's not getting the top pairing supporting him any more than any other player.
• The "White Box": He has the 2nd or 3rd (very close) highest average Defenseman opponent TOI at ~20:30, and the 4th highest F opponent TOI. So, he's matched up against ~1st/2nd line forwards, and top-pair D more than anyone except Granlund, with 2nd line teammates and 2nd pairing D teammates. He's not getting favorable treatment and he's getting top opposition.

View attachment 965366

• MTL: Link to Chart
• "The Green Box": Hutson plays with top-minutes D men (2nd highest after Carrier) and top-tier forwards (2nd highest after Matheson).
• "The White Box": He plays the 4th hardest minutes against, with Carrier, Guhle, and Matheson all facing roughly the same opponents (F's with 16.4min TOI and D's with 20.5min TOI), and Hutson playing against at F's with just under 16min TOI and D with just over 20min TOI.
• Hutson is playing with his team's best, against his opponents' second lines and pairings. So he's "slightly" sheltered, but not to a big extent.

View attachment 965370
And why not...

PHI: Link to Chart

• "The Purple Box": Michkov gets the 7th best F teammates and the 12th best D teammates. He's being given 3rd line teammates and bottom line D minutes. Not being put in good positions.
• "The White Box:" Not much different. Michkov gets the 11th "hardest" F opponent minutes, so not hard competition, and he gets the 8th hardest "D" minutes, meaning 7 of his teammates get harder matchups than him.
• He's not being given support, but he's also not playing against difficult competition.

View attachment 965371

Dude, just use RAPM. It accounts for all of that, plus situations, usage, etc

 

[coooldude]

Numbers say Michkov has the top 2way game of all three.


Dude, just use RAPM. It accounts for all of that, plus situations, usage, etc

Nothing wraps everything up into one number. It helps to disaggregate, and to understand the strengths and weaknesses of any underlying analysis. I recall you getting your ass handed to you on RAPM earlier in the thread - it's not the be-all end-all you're saying.

 

[wetcoast]

...try watching him...on his pairing (with Matheson), he's the "more reliable" defender despite his small stature...

The thing is that this past saturday a lot of people did watch him and then the excuses started like usual.

If Hutson played in Nashville or Columbus this thread would have 1/4 the posts that it does but some select Hab fans have to go into hyper hyperbole mode and then cry when they are called out on it.

A while back some poster just flat out got the facts wrong about the Habs PP since December 2nd and I corrected the facts for him and I see his laughing emoji but that's the way things go on HF Boards, post an incorrect message and then hide.

I get that all fanbases have a certain group that goes overboard but the Calder race isn't Hutson and not even close right now and probably won't end up that way either.

We will get a better idea on where the actual race is when we get another report from a sampling of the voters.

 

[FlyguyOX]

Nothing wraps everything up into one number. It helps to disaggregate, and to understand the strengths and weaknesses of any underlying analysis. I recall you getting your ass handed to you on RAPM earlier in the thread - it's not the be-all end-all you're saying.

I recall people not understanding and/or knowing how to read.

"RAPM seeks to account for all these factors by using a statistical technique called linear regression (specifically, a regularized linear regression called ridge regression). This allows us to control for all teammates, opponents, score state, zone starts, etc. at the same time further increasing the accuracy of a specific player’s rating."

If you want a singular number, you can use GAR or xGAR. GAR has celebrini the leader, but as seen in the Appleyard post Michkov has had some terrible puck luck/teammates..

GAR:

xGAR:

 

[wetcoast]

Celebrini and Michkov score goals, and Hutson doesn't.

Dude this isn't the Crosby/Ovi thread and even there it's a bad MJ take and it's much worse here.

There are lots of arguments to be made by a rookie Dman goals compared to forwards has to be one of the worst ones I have seen in this thread.

 

[BigDaddyLurch]

The thing is that this past saturday a lot of people did watch him and then the excuses started like usual.

If Hutson played in Nashville or Columbus this thread would have 1/4 the posts that it does but some select Hab fans have to go into hyper hyperbole mode and then cry when they are called out on it.

A while back some poster just flat out got the facts wrong about the Habs PP since December 2nd and I corrected the facts for him and I see his laughing emoji but that's the way things go on HF Boards, post an incorrect message and then hide.

I get that all fanbases have a certain group that goes overboard but the Calder race isn't Hutson and not even close right now and probably won't end up that way either.

We will get a better idea on where the actual race is when we get another report from a sampling of the voters.

...you are aware that Hutson appears on pretty much every "talking head" Calder Finalist list, right??...again, try watching instead of just chirping...

 

[wetcoast]

Celebrini hasn’t even played 40 games and he’s also on the worst team in the league that’s so bad they blow 5-1 leads.

Dude he was talking about Michkov who has 14 goals in 46 games played but his whole argument is shite.

 

[FlyguyOX]

idk 2nd percentile seems bad to me mate. Quite the PP merchant.

 

[wetcoast]

N
Agreed. When the Habs were behind or tie, Hutson usually the spark plug to allow the Habs to score the next goal to either narrow the other team lead or tie the game or to go ahead.

Do you have stats for this or are you just making this up?

I literally haven't seen any stats on this anywhere?

Also your post seems to be saying that the Habs don't have other important players, ie the ones on the ice with Hutson are significantly greater than his Calder competitors right?

You are opening the door here, let's see some light.

 

[FlyguyOX]

Hold up, Michkov isn't bad at defense, what??? Narratives shattered.

*"Overall" takes into Draw/take penalties. Michkov a dog who doesn't back down from anyone so he takes a hit there.

 

[StrawHatEklund]

Dude he was talking about Michkov who has 14 goals in 46 games played but his whole argument is shite.

AFAIK he was referring to both Celebrini and Michkov as both have 14 goals and the user noted that in the original statement regarding point production/goals.

 

[wetcoast]

My favorite argument used by Sharks fans is the quality of teammates that each guy gets to play with. Yes, Hutson plays with more skilled players, enabling his point production. He also is on a pairing with one of the WORST defenders in the league. So if you're going to use his quality of teammate against him in his offensive production, you better be willing to admit that his D partner is not very good at D, and that a lot of Hutson's defensive struggles can be attributed to playing with Matheson. If Weber were still here, for example, Hutson would be playing with him, and his defensive play would look a lot better.

Makes me wonder then why so many Habs fans are asking so much for Matheson in the Trades section if he actually is one of the worst defenders in the league.

What a bunch of crap but maybe Hab fans will support your view I doubt it.

AFAIK he was referring to both Celebrini and Michkov as both have 14 goals and the user in the original statement regarding point production/goals noted that.

Nope the poster said scored 14 goals in nearly 50 games and that would be Michkov not Celebrini.

Either way the whole goals scored between forwards and Dmen argument from that poster is just so weak and a non factor.

 

[wetcoast]

...you are aware that Hutson appears on pretty much every "talking head" Calder Finalist list, right??...again, try watching instead of just chirping...

Yes I'm aware of that and he has been in my top 2 for quite a while but let's get back to what you actually were arguing that other people aren't watching Hutson, just a lame argument nevermind a baseless one.

I don't know what games or players anyone watches in this thread and newsflash neither do you.

I also think that you misread my post as the argument was that for those saying that it's Hutson a lock for #1 and it's not close is just pure fantasy at this point.

 

[BigDaddyLurch]

Yes I'm aware of that and he has been in my top 2 for quite a while but let's get back to what you actually were arguing that other people aren't watching Hutson, just a lame argument nevermind a baseless one.

I don't know what games or players anyone watches in this thread and newsflash neither do you.

...well, ill-informed posts are a great clue...so...

 

[StrawHatEklund]

Nope the poster said scored 14 goals in nearly 50 games and that would be Michkov not Celebrini.

Either way the whole goals scored between forwards and Dmen argument from that poster is just so weak and a non factor.

The original post noted both Celebrini and Michkov had 14 goals and users in this thread have forgotten that Celebrini has played 9–10 less games than both Hutson and Michkov when noting their point totals. The user I quoted didn’t even contest they only meant Michkov when they responded.

 

[wetcoast]

...well, ill-informed posts are a great clue...so...

Well part of your disclaimer really is true eh?

 

[wetcoast]

The original post noted both Celebrini and Michkov had 14 goals and users in this thread have forgotten that Celebrini has played 9–10 less games than both Hutson and Michkov when noting their point totals. The user in question didn’t even contest they only meant Michkov.

This is what he said.

If we’re going to value players on goals scored only, 14 goals through almost 50 games played isn’t all that impressive.

If you can't decipher that he was referring to Michkov when I not only gave you the map but also drove you to the destination I can't help you.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Not much of a race.....


Also LOL at the poster posting charts claiming michkov is better defensively than Celebrini , I swear you can't make up some of the stuff people who don't watch games come in here with just to troll

 

[FlyguyOX]

Not much of a race.....


Also LOL at the poster posting charts claiming michkov is better defensively than Celebrini , I swear you can't make up some of the stuff people who don't watch games come in here with just to troll

You can just say you don't understand analytics.

 

[karltonian]

I promise you no team will fare well with ty Dellandrea or Barclay goodrow on the first line.

Just following this one up, here is some actual data using teammate/opponent ice time as a proxy for quality of teammates/opposition. Some insight here, although caveats include: 5v5 only and PP does matter; this analysis is averaged over the whole season, and we all know Michkov had a tear, currently has good underlying but not the points, had some very bad stretches, Hutson has been playing amazingly some games and less amazingly others; injuries; Celebrini spikes and slumps, etc. etc. etc.

tl;dr for those of you who don't like charts, Celebrini has the hardest minutes with medium support, Hutson has the best support with medium opposition, and Michkov has the worst support against the easiest competition.

• SJ: Link to chart
• The "Blue Box": Celebrini has the 6th highest average Forward teammate icetime on the team, at ~17:10 avg TOI for his iced F teammates. He has a very middle-of-the-pack D teammate profile, so he's not getting the top pairing supporting him any more than any other player.
• The "White Box": He has the 2nd or 3rd (very close) highest average Defenseman opponent TOI at ~20:30, and the 4th highest F opponent TOI. So, he's matched up against ~1st/2nd line forwards, and top-pair D more than anyone except Granlund, with 2nd line teammates and 2nd pairing D teammates. He's not getting favorable treatment and he's getting top opposition.

View attachment 965366

• MTL: Link to Chart
• "The Green Box": Hutson plays with top-minutes D men (2nd highest after Carrier) and top-tier forwards (2nd highest after Matheson).
• "The White Box": He plays the 4th hardest minutes against, with Carrier, Guhle, and Matheson all facing roughly the same opponents (F's with 16.4min TOI and D's with 20.5min TOI), and Hutson playing against at F's with just under 16min TOI and D with just over 20min TOI.
• Hutson is playing with his team's best, against his opponents' second lines and pairings. So he's "slightly" sheltered, but not to a big extent.

View attachment 965370
And why not...

PHI: Link to Chart

• "The Purple Box": Michkov gets the 7th best F teammates and the 12th best D teammates. He's being given 3rd line teammates and bottom line D minutes. Not being put in good positions.
• "The White Box:" Not much different. Michkov gets the 11th "hardest" F opponent minutes, so not hard competition, and he gets the 8th hardest "D" minutes, meaning 7 of his teammates get harder matchups than him.
• He's not being given support, but he's also not playing against difficult competition.

View attachment 965371

Well done.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

idk 2nd percentile seems bad to me mate. Quite the PP merchant.

View attachment 965384

What are the two asterisk marks referencing for ES GAR?