Epic Calder Race 2024-25

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Or perhaps Hutson just isn’t as productive at 5 vs 5 even strength hockey? Less than 50% of his points are from 5 vs 5? That isn’t digging. It’s just reality. For Celebrini, 71% of his points are from ES and more than 60% are from pure 5 vs 5. He can’t rack up PP points when our PP is mediocre and he’s has no PPG talent to play with.

That's a fairly common ratio...

 

[JIMVINNY]

It seems like I don't need to answer then since you want to speak for me?

Along with this guy,


Hutson has obviously closed some of the gap and the Habs have been on quite a run but some of the hyperbole used then and even more now is ridiculous and when he cools down it will turn to he's just unlucky ect, ect ect.

Hutson is producing but he is also playing with much better players, ie his partner Mathieson and the top unit.

I haven't watched every minute of every rookie play and I seriously doubt that many here posting have either but I won't speak for you or others except to say that in hockey one can goo look at 3 or 4 different game reports from people who actually watched the game and follow the team, ie broadcasters and one will often find a different 3 star selection so sometimes people see what they want to see and that goes both ways.

I have seen both players in around a half dozen full games and read a lot about hockey and watch clips and Celebrini plays a more complete game with lesser players.

How the voters will view the race depends on how things go down the stretch obviously and the gap ahs been closed but like I said up post get ready for the excuses when the Habs go into a funk and the points don't come as easy much like when Michkov was struggling but has now basically fallen out of the race for all intensive purposes.

As for Hutsons defensive game, he has been playing extremely sheltered minutes during this hot stretch and Celebrini for a rookie much less so but in fairness to Hutson the actual voters probably won't consider this fact very much.

it will be an interesting race to watch and hopefully you continue to be gracious in your posts like many Sharks fans with balanced and thoughtful posts throughout this thread than handful of somewhat enthusiastic Habs fans and of course your enlightening fact based posts as well.

I've you indeed think that Hutson is playing sheltered minutes, then you clearly haven't watched him since the first month of the season. As for his play with Matheson, again, it's clear you haven't watched any Habs games since October. Matheson was absolute dogsh*t this year before being paired with Hutson. Both players have been playing better since they were paired together, but Matheson's play has been elevated far more than Hutson's has. It's clear to anyone that watches the Habs that Matheson is benefitting most by being a part of that pairing. Since you clearly DON'T watch the Habs, you wouldn't know any of this.

 

[StrawHatEklund]

That's a fairly common ratio...

So most elite players aren’t producing at well over 50% at 5 vs 5 ES hockey?

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Or perhaps Hutson just isn’t as productive at 5 vs 5 even strength hockey? Less than 50% of his points are from 5 vs 5? That isn’t digging. It’s just reality.

That's the reality for all dmen, you genius.

Quinn Hughes has 22 of his 44 points (50%) at 5v5. Werenski has 27 of his 50 points (54%).

Hutson has 17 of 35, just a little under 50%. Hutson also plays a little less ES time than they do.

Hutson is 16th among all dmen for 5v5 points. As a friggin rookie.

He started to break out since nov 27th and in those 22 games he has 11 5v5 pts. 5th among all dmen since nov 27th.

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

If we're getting to the point where we're digging into 5v5 production and total PPTOI I think both sides can come together and admit it's a coin toss lmao

 

[wetcoast]

I've you indeed think that Hutson is playing sheltered minutes, then you clearly haven't watched him since the first month of the season.

I have actually.

As for his play with Matheson, again, it's clear you haven't watched any Habs games since October.

Again I have.

Matheson was absolute dogsh*t this year before being paired with Hutson. Both players have been playing better since they were paired together, but Matheson's play has been elevated far more than Hutson's has.

Matheson has a track record and the Canadiens defense has been solidified since the trade for Carrier, and the return of Laine has helped the team overall as well.

It's clear to anyone that watches the Habs that Matheson is benefitting most by being a part of that pairing. Since you clearly DON'T watch the Habs, you wouldn't know any of this.

Sure okay that's exactly what your fellow Hab fans say in the trade sections here too right?

Well not really, like I said he has a track record and your post is a great example of what this poster is saying.

There's the counter argument in that.

Take a guy from my team. I watch him 82 games a year, every season. I know his subtleties, I know his strengths, I know every detail of his game. I know the value he brings to the team and I can justify his flaws better. Compare him to a guy who plays the similar role on another team, of course I'm over rating my guy vs that other guy.

Others might not be the best evaluation of his individual skills or abilities but they are a better judge of his comparable skills.

Individual fans are the worst evaluators of their own teams.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

So most elite players aren’t producing at well over 50% at 5 vs 5 ES hockey?

Yes, most elite defenseman produce roughly 50% of their points at 5v5, give or take:

Here are the current top scoring dmen:
Makar: 21/50 = 42%
Werenski: 27/50 = 54%
Q Hughes: 22/47 = 46.8%
Morrissey: 17/39 = 43.5%
Theodore: 18/36 = 50%
Hutson: 17/35 = 48.5%

That's only 1 guy above 50%

This stuff is easy to research.

 

[StrawHatEklund]

That's the reality for all dmen, you genius.

Quinn Hughes has 22 of his 44 points (50%) at 5v5. Werenski has 27 of his 50 points (54%).

Hutson has 17 of 35, just a little under 50%. Hutson also plays a little less ES time than they do.

Hutson is 16th among all dmen for 5v5 points. As a friggin rookie.

He started to break out since nov 27th and in those 22 games he has 11 5v5 pts. 5th among all dmen since nov 27th.

You’re comparing him to Celebrini. Not all d-men. He is an offensive d-man so ofc his 5 vs 5 numbers will look more efficient compared to other offensive d-man than to Celebrini who has elite 5 vs 5 production

And we’re comparing the entire season no? Or are you okay with me cherry-picking Celebrini’s stats when he was on a hot streak?

Yes, most elite defenseman produce roughly 50% of their points at 5v5, give or take:

Here are the current top scoring dmen:
Makar: 21/50 = 42%
Werenski: 27/50 = 54%
Q Hughes: 22/47 = 46.8%
Morrissey: 17/39 = 43.5%
Theodore: 18/36 = 50%
Hutson: 17/35 = 48.5%

That's only 1 guy above 50%

This stuff is easy to research.

If you want to compare him to other D-men rather than Celebrini, perhaps try another thread (a Norris one?). I said elite players. Not just elite D-men.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

If we're getting to the point where we're digging into 5v5 production and total PPTOI I think both sides can come together and admit it's a coin toss lmao

It's not close.

If people think it's close, it's because they're in denial of the differences in production between forwards and dmen.

The closer we head torwards the end of the season, the closer Hutson will be closing in on historical milestones that will make him the undeniable frontrunner, and Macklin won't be near any C rookie milestones unless he starts producing more.

Hutson is pacing for top 10 all time rookie D in points, maybe top 5, maybe top 3.

He's pacing to finish at least 2nd if not 1st in all-time rookie D assists. Top 5 for rookie D ES points, if not #1 all-time.

[MOD]

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

You’re comparing him to Celebrini. Not all d-men. He is an offensive d-man so ofc his 5 vs 5 numbers will look more efficient compared to other offensive d-man than to Celebrini who has elite 5 vs 5 production

And we’re comparing the entire season no? Or are you okay with me cherry-picking Celebrini’s stats when he was on a hot streak?


If you want to compare him to other D-men rather than Celebrini, perhaps try another thread? I said elite players. Not just elite D-men.

Its not just dmen, a lot of top forwards get less than 50% of their points at 5v5.

Only 28 of Mackinnon's 70 points have come 5v5.

 

[JIMVINNY]

You’re comparing him to Celebrini. Not all d-men. He is an offensive d-man so ofc his 5 vs 5 numbers will look more efficient compared to other offensive d-man.

And we’re comparing the entire season no? Or are you okay with me cherry-picking Celebrini’s stats when he was on a hot streak?

So one second you're saying, "Don't compare him to Celebrini, compare him to all d-men."

If you want to compare him to other D-men rather than Celebrini, perhaps try another thread? I said elite players. Not just elite D-men.

Now you're saying, "Don't compare him to the elite d-men, compare him to OTHER elite players, that aren't at his position."

Talk about moving the goal posts....

 

[StrawHatEklund]

So one second you're saying, "Don't compare him to Celebrini, compare him to all d-men."


Now you're saying, "Don't compare him to the elite d-men, compare him to OTHER elite players, that aren't at his position."

Talk about moving the goal posts....

Talk about disingenuous. I never said compare him to other elite offensive defenseman. I was comparing Celebrini and Hutson directly. So, ofc I would compare them to other elite players and not just their respective position.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

So one second you're saying, "Don't compare him to Celebrini, compare him to all d-men."


Now you're saying, "Don't compare him to the elite d-men, compare him to OTHER elite players, that aren't at his position."

Talk about moving the goal posts....

It's simple: (can't find historical stats for rookie 5v5)

Center rookie record for ES points
Stastny 76 in 77 for 0.96 ESPPG
Dman rookie record
Murphy 40 in 80 for 0.50 ESPPG

Celebrini 22 in 34 for 0.65 ESPPG
Hutson 21 in 43 for 0.49 ESPPG

 

[StrawHatEklund]

Its not just dmen, a lot of top forwards get less than 50% of their points at 5v5.

Only 28 of Mackinnon's 70 points have come 5v5.

That’s extremely low. Is this an outlier season for him?

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

Talk about disingenuous. I never said compare him to other elite offensive defenseman. I was comparing Celebrini and Hutson directly. So, ofc I would compare them to other elite players and not just their respective position.

It's not like Hutson's ratio of 5v5 production vs overall production is anomalous relative to other defensemen though, so I'm not sure what your point is beyond grasping at straws

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

That’s extremely low. Is this an outlier season for him?

You'll see tons of top line forwards with ~50% or less. The stats are public. Even Celebrini is only at 58%.

 

[StrawHatEklund]

You'll see tons of top line forwards with ~50% or less. The stats are public. Even Celebrini is only at 58%.

I’m well aware of the 50% range but MacKinnon isn’t even sniffing 50%. That’s why I’m asking if it was an outlier since you already pulled his stats. Though, I know the Avalanche have some inflated stats from their elite EN scoring.

 

[Goalfield13]

It's not like Hutson's ratio of 5v5 production vs overall production is anomalous relative to other defensemen though, so I'm not sure what your point is beyond grasping at straws

I see what you did there.

 

[StrawHatEklund]

It's not like Hutson's ratio of 5v5 production vs overall production is anomalous relative to other defensemen though, so I'm not sure what your point is beyond grasping at straws

It was originally brought up in context of the PP TOI conversation when I noted that Hutson had nearly 4x the PP time of Celebrini yesterday in their 2 and 3 point performances.

The point is Celebrini’s stats suffer from being on a poor Sharks team with a mediocre PP. Hutson’s are boosted playing with guys like Caulfield and Suzuki and Laine on the PP.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I’m well aware of the 50% range but MacKinnon isn’t even sniffing 50%. That’s why I’m asking if it was an outlier since you already pulled his stats. Though, I know the Avalanche have some inflated stats from their elite EN scoring.

Then why are you so critical of Hutson's 5v5 scoring?

 

[StrawHatEklund]

Then why are you so critical of Hutson's 5v5 scoring?

Because Hutson’s PP stats are boosted playing with the likes of Caulfield, Suzuki and Laine while Celebrini is hurt by both his 5 vs 5 and PP linemates but that is totally discounted in this thread.

 

[JIMVINNY]

It was originally brought up in context of the PP TOI conversation when I noted that Hutson had nearly 4x the PP time of Celebrini yesterday in their 2 and 3 point performances.

The point is Celebrini’s stats suffer from being on a poor Sharks team with a mediocre PP. Hutson’s are boosted playing with guys like Caulfield and Suzuki and Laine on the PP.

The 3 EV assists and +3 last night don't really support your theory. Sure, last time he had three points, 2 were on the PP, but now you're literally cherry picking single game performances to support your badly formed opinions.

 

[StrawHatEklund]

The 3 EV assists and +3 last night don't really support your theory. Sure, last time he had three points, 2 were on the PP, but now you're literally cherry picking single game performances to support your badly formed opinions.

You’re the one cherry picking a game to make your point. Besides, it was originally a Habs fan who brought up yesterday’s games to bait the Sharks and denigrate Celebrini. Afterwards, I was talking about their performances in general. Not single game performances.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Because Hutson’s PP stats are boosted playing with the likes of Caulfield, Suzuki and Laine while Celebrini is hurt by both his 5 vs 5 and PP linemates but that is totally discounted in this thread.

He leads his team in PP scoring despite playing the first half of the season on PP2... Sure, he benefits from better teammates, but Celebrini still trails Granlund and Toffoli in PP points (and Granlund in PP points/gp).

 

[StrawHatEklund]

He leads his team in PP scoring despite playing the first half of the season on PP2... Sure, he benefits from better teammates, but Celebrini still trails Granlund and Toffoli in PP points (and Granlund in PP points/gp).

Celebrini is tied with Toffoli on PP points despite playing 12 less games and only trails Granlund by 4 PP points despite 10 less games.