Epic Calder Race 2024-25

[admiralcadillac]

You'd be wrong here Celebrini is till the frontrunner.

That makes no sense

 

[leopod]

Trophy Tracker: Hutson of Canadiens picked to win Calder as rookie of year | NHL.com

Celebrini, Wolf also among favorites at 3-quarter mark of season by NHL.com panel

www.nhl.com

Close race indeed. Hutson being the frontrunner but certainly not running away with it

 

[wetcoast]

That makes no sense

Vegas odds and the last poll of actual voters?

 

[Frank Drebin]

You'd be wrong here Celebrini is till the frontrunner.

 

[wetcoast]

Trophy Tracker: Hutson of Canadiens picked to win Calder as rookie of year | NHL.com

Celebrini, Wolf also among favorites at 3-quarter mark of season by NHL.com panel

www.nhl.com

Close race indeed. Hutson being the frontrunner but certainly not running away with it

Didn't see this until after posting are the 16 panel members on NHL.com all voters?

also from the panel,

Hutson received 69 voting points (six first-place votes) from NHL.com's 16-person panel. He edged out San Jose Sharks forward Macklin Celebrini, who was second with 66 points (seven first-place votes).

 

[wetcoast]

View attachment 990992

As of right now I'd say yes given the voting odds last ESPN panel of voters and looking at how each player has done since that poll.

 

[Sleeper Shark]

That makes no sense

Well, it would start to make sense if you stepped back for a moment to consider the role Celebrini is playing on his team vs Hutson and the effect they have on play relative to the team around them.

Hutson is having a great year, no doubt, but is on a team that has performed above expectations across the board. He's able to have a leading role on the powerplay, while vets like Matheson, Guhle, and others soak up difficult defensive assignments.

Mack is a no doubt 1C at 18 (!) years old and has taken on a defensively responsible game while getting a higher PPG than any rookie in this class. Hutson is a fantastic 21 y/o defenseman, but he is very clearly still has a negative defensive impact on the whole. I get that he has takeaways are higher and such, but Hutson's O-zone starts are higher (65%) vs Mack (55%) and Mack has a better overall impact on his teams chances (51.3% CF) vs Hutson at 50.7% CF. Mack is controlling the puck more (on a worse possession team) and getting than Hutson is while getting less time in the offensive zone.

I don't generally rely on the advance stats to tell the whole story about a player, but in a strong Calder race like this one, I think deployment and impact make a difference. Eye test is one thing, and both fan bases will say their guy is the best, so why not look at objective measures?

 

[Mattb124]

If Hutson and Wolfe lead their clubs to the playoffs while having comparable statistics to Celebrini, then absolutely the voters should take that into account.

it would be just as easy for a voter to lean toward Celebrini if their stats are similar because he is generating those results with a less talented supporting cast. Again, the Calder is related to player performance and not team results, and the only player in the Calder race that could been seen to be “lead(ing) their clubs to the play-offs” is Wolf, but even that is a stretch.

 

[coooldude]

Didn't see this until after posting are the 16 panel members on NHL.com all voters?

also from the panel,

Based on what you quoted (linked again here), I think it's fair to say that the race is neck and neck between Celebrini and Hutson. I'd be surprised if the Vegas lines don't move them closer together.

Yes, it's NHL.com and not a panel of PHWA voters who will actually vote, but I have to believe it's fairly representative of the conversations happening. But we will see!

Hutson received 69 voting points (six first-place votes) from NHL.com's 16-person panel. He edged out San Jose Sharks forward Macklin Celebrini, who was second with 66 points (seven first-place votes).

 

[Fraser28]

If Hutson and Wolfe lead their clubs to the playoffs while having comparable statistics to Celebrini, then absolutely the voters should take that into account.

It’s strange that despite all the pumping of Wolf’s tires you don’t even know how to spell his name in any of your posts.

 

[Rubi]

it would be just as easy for a voter to lean toward Celebrini if their stats are similar because he is generating those results with a less talented supporting cast. Again, the Calder is related to player performance and not team results, and the only player in the Calder race that could been seen to be “lead(ing) their clubs to the play-offs” is Wolf, but even that is a stretch.

How can you ignore the impact a player has on their team's performance? And if that player's impact ends up as the major contributing factor in achieving a playoff spot, I think to ignore that one is being wilfully blind.
I suspect that if SJ was in a playoff spot or at least close to achieving that goal, you too would be beating that drum.

 

[Rubi]

It’s strange that despite all the pumping of Wolf’s tires you don’t even know how to spell his name in any of your posts.

It's obvious that @Fatass prefers to use the original English spelling of the surname rather than encourage and endorse the usage of the bastardized Americanized version.
Major General James Wolfe, a hero to all Canadians, fought and defeated the scurrilous American invaders on the Plains of Abraham of Upper Canada, and it's only right we defend the correct spelling of his name.

 

[admiralcadillac]

Hutson is p

Well, it would start to make sense if you stepped back for a moment to consider the role Celebrini is playing on his team vs Hutson and the effect they have on play relative to the team around them.

Hutson is having a great year, no doubt, but is on a team that has performed above expectations across the board. He's able to have a leading role on the powerplay, while vets like Matheson, Guhle, and others soak up difficult defensive assignments.

Mack is a no doubt 1C at 18 (!) years old and has taken on a defensively responsible game while getting a higher PPG than any rookie in this class. Hutson is a fantastic 21 y/o defenseman, but he is very clearly still has a negative defensive impact on the whole. I get that he has takeaways are higher and such, but Hutson's O-zone starts are higher (65%) vs Mack (55%) and Mack has a better overall impact on his teams chances (51.3% CF) vs Hutson at 50.7% CF. Mack is controlling the puck more (on a worse possession team) and getting than Hutson is while getting less time in the offensive zone.

I don't generally rely on the advance stats to tell the whole story about a player, but in a strong Calder race like this one, I think deployment and impact make a difference. Eye test is one thing, and both fan bases will say their guy is the best, so why not look at objective measures?

Hutson is playing first pairing minutes, running the PP and is in the top 8 of league scoring for d men.

It’s not a question of who will end up a better player, but Hutson is simply having a better season.

I’d add that while San Jose is certainly a worse team, the Habs are not a powerhouse either. If they’re nearing the playoffs it is largely due to Hutson.

 

[Frank Drebin]

hutson 46th in TOI/60 for dmen (top 28% of top pairing ATOI)
Celebrini 34th for forwards (top 64% of top line forwards)
Michkov way too low to count
Wolf 20/32 for MP amongst starters (top 38% for NHL starter)

Just to put into context of usage/importance to their respective teams. Celebrini arguably taking the largest role.

 

[Mattb124]

How can you ignore the impact a player has on their team's performance? And if that player's impact ends up as the major contributing factor in achieving a playoff spot, I think to ignore that one is being wilfully blind.
I suspect that if SJ was in a playoff spot or at least close to achieving that goal, you too would be beating that drum.

How can you isolate it?

And as I previously explained, the last 3 Calder winners were on teams that were not in the play-off hunt. I would think hockey fans would understand that the best young players tend to be on bad teams on account of how the NHL draft works. History and common sense seem to indicate that team ranking isn’t a material factor in Calder voting.

And yet some people suggest so anyhow….

 

[luiginb]

Yes, you’re in the right for that hypothetical, however Wolf is single-handedly pushing the Flames to the playoffs, meanwhile we’re last in GF, and makes his rookie career so much more impressive. Celebrini and Michkov aren’t propelling their teams towards success (Hutson I give a pass to, he’s also making the Habs successful, although he has a better supporting cast than what Wolf has)

Prime Gretzky couldn't propel this year's Sharks team towards success