Value of: Elias Pettersson

[Canucks LB]

More than ppl think

 

[Peter Griffin]

I think Elias Pettersson is 100% in control of his legacy. He clearly has the skill but does he have it between the ears? The parts of his game that are lacking are typically things that don't take a ton of extra talent. It's the discipline and willpower.

Penguins would likely be interested. The Pens board seems reasonably favorable to a Novak+Koivunen+2nd offer.

That’s not a particularly exciting offer considering some of the others being discussed in this thread. I think there’s also some ability to improve the value from a Canucks’ POV by taking on Ryan Graves’ deadweight, effectively reducing Pettersson’s negative contract value for the next 3 seasons.

 

[SEALBound]

That’s not a particularly exciting offer considering some of the others being discussed in this thread. I think there’s also some ability to improve the value from a Canucks’ POV by taking on Ryan Graves’ deadweight, effectively reducing Pettersson’s negative contract value for the next 3 seasons.

So a couple of things here:
1. I think some of the offers here for Pettersson are absolutely insane. I do not believe he will pull the value some posters are suggesting. So I mean, in the context of purely imaginative make-believe here on HF, sure so with those other offers. But some of us are discussing what we believe will be realistic packages that might actually manifest. Players and picks may not be exact, the overall value will be.
2. If Canucks want Graves, they can have him. No issues boosting the package to Graves, Novak, Koivunen, 2nd. The Penguins are in no position to have to pay someone to take Graves though, so we won't be doing it. I am 99.99% certain that a trade which has Dubas paying value to move Graves will not happen. A situation that could very well be playing out is the Penguins offer Novak, Koivunen, 2nd for Petts @ $8mil. Canucks say no so they say, okay add Graves and take Pettersson at full tilt, which would be fine by me.
3. I think if a team is willing to take the chance on Pettersson, they likely aren't considering his contract "negative value" for next three seasons. If they are willing to do it, it likely means they believe he will rebound and fill a roster hole successfully.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I proposed something near this on the Blues forum.

27 1st top 10 protected (my guess would be a late teens early 20s pick)
3rd
Drouin or Suter
Buchnelikov
(+?)

For EP ideally with 2-3mil retained but I think its possible my package only works for Van w/o retenton.

Absolutely no chance I would move a '27 1st for EP. You could talk me into moving #15 this year. But with how hot and cold this team is we should be keeping our 1st rounders.

 

[57special]

I do believe that the guy might have one or two bounce back seasons of about 65-70 points, but do not think that he will 5 seasons(the length of his remaining contract) of elite #1C production, like he showed in order to get his huge contract.

I think that the play for VAN will be to trade him for something like a mid/late 1st or a decent prospect/young player(Cristall/Dvorsky/ Kasper) and a partial cap dump( 1/2 x 4-5M) for a year or two so as to make the trade happen more easily.

I could be totally off, though. All it takes is one GM to see a comeback in EP's future. The guy is still relatively young - I can't really explain just how badly things of gone for him, unless he is hiding an injury or there is some mental anguish behind the scenes.

 

[Peter Griffin]

So a couple of things here:
1. I think some of the offers here for Pettersson are absolutely insane. I do not believe he will pull the value some posters are suggesting. So I mean, in the context of purely imaginative make-believe here on HF, sure so with those other offers. But some of us are discussing what we believe will be realistic packages that might actually manifest. Players and picks may not be exact, the overall value will be.
2. If Canucks want Graves, they can have him. No issues boosting the package to Graves, Novak, Koivunen, 2nd. The Penguins are in no position to have to pay someone to take Graves though, so we won't be doing it. I am 99.99% certain that a trade which has Dubas paying value to move Graves will not happen. A situation that could very well be playing out is the Penguins offer Novak, Koivunen, 2nd for Petts @ $8mil. Canucks say no so they say, okay add Graves and take Pettersson at full tilt, which would be fine by me.

Lol expecting to get Pettersson at $8M for that package and “settling” for sending Graves for that same package shows that your valuation is completely off. Pettersson at $8M would have great value. I doubt Vancouver has any interest in “dumping” Pettersson which is what this trade would be.

3. I think if a team is willing to take the chance on Pettersson, they likely aren't considering his contract "negative value" for next three seasons. If they are willing to do it, it likely means they believe he will rebound and fill a roster hole successfully.

And a 3rd line center, small, 23 year old AHL winger and a 2nd round pick isn’t going to be a remotely competitive offer.

 

[PuckFegula]

I proposed something near this on the Blues forum.

27 1st top 10 protected (my guess would be a late teens early 20s pick)
3rd
Drouin or Suter
Buchnelikov
(+?)

For EP ideally with 2-3mil retained but I think its possible my package only works for Van w/o retenton.

Blues are one of the few teams I think it’d make sense for- I don’t hate it. You’re trading a bunch of parts to see if your 3 real good forwards can help EP regain his form, decent gamble.

 

[Qwijibo]

More than ppl think

Doubtful

 

[johnnybbadd]

I’m not a Canucks fan but the offers here are offensive to their fans. Also way too much talk of predicting points totals. Trade value is much more correlated to cap hit and lineup position. EP is the Canucks 1st line centre so any offer must include something that at least comes close to or is a future player that can play either 1st or 2nd line centre or the Canucks won’t be interested. Any team trying to acquire him will put him on either their 1st or 2nd line and play him on the PP. A bunch of fillers won’t cut it and with the cap ready to take off 11 million will be low end 1st line centre money within 2 years.

 

[cfj007]

"NHL insider Frank Seravalli has reported a growing suspicion around the league that the Vancouver Canucks are open to trading Elias Pettersson and that there is significant interest from other teams. According to Seravalli, the potential trade return for Pettersson is highly valued, potentially exceeding the return from the J.T. Miller trade."

I take that with a grain of salt, but value it more than some of these subjective opinions that he has no value. Centre values are a premium right now and Vnacouver has the leverage.

 

[ExJbeck]

Absolutely no chance I would move a '27 1st for EP. You could talk me into moving #15 this year. But with how hot and cold this team is we should be keeping our 1st rounders.

Fair. My preference is to keep the picks this year (to hopefully trade up) because with EP I think our first next year will be higher but not as high as 29 this season. If I knew I wasn't trading up, I would be ok with using 15, but it would have to be with retention

 

[Bourne Endeavor]

"NHL insider Frank Seravalli has reported a growing suspicion around the league that the Vancouver Canucks are open to trading Elias Pettersson and that there is significant interest from other teams. According to Seravalli, the potential trade return for Pettersson is highly valued, potentially exceeding the return from the J.T. Miller trade."

I take that with a grain of salt, but value it more than some of these subjective opinions that he has no value. Centre values are a premium right now and Vnacouver has the leverage.

That's from five months ago.

 

[Ryder71]

I think Elias Pettersson is 100% in control of his legacy. He clearly has the skill but does he have it between the ears? The parts of his game that are lacking are typically things that don't take a ton of extra talent. It's the discipline and willpower.

Penguins would likely be interested. The Pens board seems reasonably favorable to a Novak+Koivunen+2nd offer.

The between the ears part is what concerns me. Hard pass!

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

Blues ; Dvorsky
for
VAN : EP

Fair >?

Seems more than fair to me . Dvorsky looks good/promising and EP makes too much for the play he provides. Not sure why St Louis does this unless they deal Thomas and a trying to fill a positional void . Also can’t Dvorsky play c a bit ?

 

[cfj007]

That's from five months ago.

Thanks, value is the same if not higher.

 

[Agent007]

is anybody else offering a prospect/young player that high in value?

As a blues fan I’d prefer to keep the roster in tact since Dvorsky is already playing in the NHL and better for our window.

Does pick #15 plus other picks or prospects not in the NHL get Vancouver at least thinking about it?

Would definitely build a trade around pick 15

 

[Em etah Eh]

Seems more than fair to me . Dvorsky looks good/promising and EP makes too much for the play he provides. Not sure why St Louis does this unless they deal Thomas and a trying to fill a positional void . Also can’t Dvorsky play c a bit ?

The plan would to be to roll Thomas and EP as the top 2 centers and have them both on the top PP unit. Thomas having an 8M caphit makes the logistics better for the blues. 20M for your top 2Cs isn’t bad at all with the landscape that’s about to take over the NHL.

Holloway Thomas Snug
Buch EP Kyrou
Neighbors Dyvorsky X

Blues would have essentially flipped Faulk and Schenn For Petterson plus picks/prospects.

Do the blues and Steen feel like Petterson is worth the risk is the question.

 

[PromisedLand]

He can still play. He is not a Loui Eriksson. His defensive play is excellent. But he often appears disinterested. Like his passion for the game is gone. At a minimum, on a decent team, he is still a 60 point 2 way Center. If not for an 11m+ contract he would have plenty of value. I believe the Tocchet, JT Miller drama killed his love for the game. I still believe he has the talent to be 90+ again but obviously there is real risk in that.

There is zero chance Vancouver retains 50% of the contract. If they did they are going to want full value for Pettersson. Which means multiple first round picks. EP40 at under 6 million would be insane value. I suspect any retained salary would be under 2m. With the rising cap EP's salary does not look near as bad. Just wait to see some the deals that are gonna hit in the next couple of years.

Of course HFBoards are all going to try to convince you that even at 50% retained EP40 is worth a second rounder or something. But you and I both know HFBoards are terrible evaluators of talent when it comes to Canadian teams.

i am really out of the touch with hockey news past few years. what really happened b/w EP and JT Miller?

 

[PeoriaBlues309]

If you have to state that we can "flip" an inclusion into a trade, it's acknowledging that that asset has no value in this trade. I wouldn't mind Suter being included and returned to us, but if you have to preface his and Drouin's inclusion that way, its telling us you realise they hold little value to us. If they're cap dumps, fine, but we can't value cap as "adds" in this trade.

Fischer is fine, but I'm not excited by him, that could entirely personal bias on my part though. Presently we have Buium, two Petterssons, Kudryatsev, Joseph (RFA) and Mynio still in the system on the left, and I don't know if I can see him fitting in now or in the future. Like, we just traded Woo for Clayton (also sticking around) and I see way too many similarities to discount the comparison entirely. Again, bias.

A late first is then the main return here, and....meh. I think we can find better.

Agree to disagree on my reasoning for mentioning that part.

Vancouver is rebuilding and doesn’t want to take on big long term contracts. I would say that acquiring rentals to eventually flip at the deadline for more picks is what smart organizations do. EP’s contract/production means cap dumps are coming back, so it would make sense to get Suter/Drouin types back over say a Ryan Graves.

Also, as far as Fischer, I have zero issues swapping him with a forward prospect in the same tier like a Stancl/Pekarcik.

If a bidding war happens, I’d begrudgingly include 15, but I want to use that and pick 11 to either trade up in the draft, or use for another big trade lol.

 

[Cogburn]

To be clear, I never said he was a 40 point player who spiked and then returned to 40. My understanding was he was pretty much a point per game player, who spiked to the 80-100 point range and then slumped for 2 years. I was just trying to find examples of other star players who recovered from 2 consecutive down years.

I do appreciate you pointing out the games played in his last two seasons though. It really wasn't a 40 point season, as he was on pace for about 57 points in both down years.

On rereading, you're right, and although I tried to keep things cordial, my comments may have had me looking like I came out the gate hot here. I'm sure you can see having the numbers and argument ready to go, that this isn't my first time pointing this out to people that have claimed the strawman argument I thought you were alluding towards.

And I mean...57 points isn't a scoring target for an 11.6 million dollar player, but yes, context seems to be left by the way side looking at nothing but point totals. And I still haven't found a player falling off or bouncing back the way you've described. 100 to 40 to 40 to 80ish points isn't a common trajectory, you're right on there.

 

[Cogburn]

RNH , Howard+ 1st for Petterson at 9 million

Great offer, but the retention is 100% not happening without a big, big, big change to our owners mindframe. Guys throwing a hissy fit because every candidate anyone else agreed to is deadset on rebuilding and is unwilling to contribute anything but the absolute minimum, including retention.

 

[Cogburn]

Blues ; Dvorsky
for
VAN : EP

Fair >?

Dvorsky's a heck of a prospect, and were he the centerpiece of a deal for Vancouver, that's about what we'd want valuewise. Other pieces would have to be included, not necessarily tons more value from the Blues, but simply eating 11.6 million means, to me, that St Louis would want to send some kind of cap back.

is anybody else offering a prospect/young player that high in value?

As a blues fan I’d prefer to keep the roster in tact since Dvorsky is already playing in the NHL and better for our window.

Does pick #15 plus other picks or prospects not in the NHL get Vancouver at least thinking about it?

#15 is a good start too. The inclusion of a forward prospect, a top 6 prospect hopefully, and some cap would probably settle to what we want.

I proposed something near this on the Blues forum.

27 1st top 10 protected (my guess would be a late teens early 20s pick)
3rd
Drouin or Suter
Buchnelikov
(+?)

For EP ideally with 2-3mil retained but I think its possible my package only works for Van w/o retenton.

That's honestly not a lot of value coming back our way. Drouin and Suter mean nothing, valuewise, for us. A pick next season, that can't even be a lottery pick at huge longshot odds, isn't super appealing either. Buch (Buch Jr? Mini-Buch?) also seems like an alright inclusion.

If we can remove the pick protections, or move it back to being like a top 3 pick deferral or something, or swap the first for this year's pick, I can get behind this.

And my normal disclosure, there can't be any retention on Pettersson according to our owners, at least until they suffer a small head injury pulling their heads out of their rear ends and change their perspective on the matter. Another cap dump can be included if that would sewer the deal otherwise.

 

[GoldenSeal]

I'm a weirdo, I'd keep Dvo and pass entirely on EP. I don't think he is the solution to whatever it is we're looking for.

Note the bold before responding.

 

[Em etah Eh]

I'm a weirdo, I'd keep Dvo and pass entirely on EP. I don't think he is the solution to whatever it is we're looking for.

Note the bold before responding.

Fair enough. It’s going to be very interesting if EP gets moved. You’re going to have 10+ fanbases observing from the outside to see if the deal is a massive fail, a massive success or just meh.

I feel like the blues have a great situation to make it so the chances of it being a massive fail are slim. My gut tells me that most fanbases are going to be kicking themselves for not beating the winning offer.

Top centers don’t become available ever so the ones that do will have warts. We’ll see which team identifies EP as a worthwhile risk in the end. This could be a ROR2.0 for the blues if it hits.

 

[Cogburn]

Agree to disagree on my reasoning for mentioning that part.

Vancouver is rebuilding and doesn’t want to take on big long term contracts. I would say that acquiring rentals to eventually flip at the deadline for more picks is what smart organizations do. EP’s contract/production means cap dumps are coming back, so it would make sense to get Suter/Drouin types back over say a Ryan Graves.

Also, as far as Fischer, I have zero issues swapping him with a forward prospect in the same tier like a Stancl/Pekarcik.

If a bidding war happens, I’d begrudgingly include 15, but I want to use that and pick 11 to either trade up in the draft, or use for another big trade lol.

We haven't been outright banned from taking big, long term contracts, so I think most fans accept something is coming back, short or long term. That doesn't mean we assign any value what so ever to the cap dumps though. Graves, or Drouin, or Nurse even, are a cost of doing business, but they aren't pieces adding to the value of what ever package we get. The cap being included isn't a factor for me, but that either as a plus or minus.

I know Stancl was in my back yard in Kelowna, but tbh I didn't get a chance to see any games this year. Either of them seem fine on paper, and even if it requires a longer stay in the minors or AHL, which would you say is likely to have the highest ceiling?

And yes, that 15 would probably get it done with one of the listed prospect. Obviously I can say that I'd prefer the higher pick, and St Louis would prefer the later pick. We have a few of our guys that want the Ruck twins with our later first and either our second or another acquired pick, but I honestly don't care for the meme factor here. Ryan Lin, speaking of playing in my back yard, or Belchetz or Command are a lot more appealing prospects than anyone I can see in that 25-30 spot. If someone like Rogowski drops down, I'd be a lot more inclined, but I don't know if the drop is likely, or that the Sedins/Johnson make a trade like that on a whim or condition.