Speculation: Elephant in the room: Is McDavid going to be the biggest UFA ever in 2026?

[Iggys Dome]

I was reading this article from thescore and a few quotes stood out to me: McDavid: Winning 'all that matters to me at this point in my career'

"I want to win. That's it," McDavid told The Athletic's Daniel Nugent-Bowman. "That's all that matters to me at this point in my career."

McDavid is set to become an unrestricted free agent in 2026. The Edmonton Oilers can sign him to an extension no earlier than July 1, 2025.


"My priority is to win," McDavid added. "My priority is to take care of my family. Those are the two things I worry about. Those are my two obligations."

"We're just leaving it because we're not talking contract (right now)," Jackson said. "With the relationship that we have and the relationship I have with (McDavid's agent) Judd (Moldaver), there's an understanding that we'll get to discussions when it's appropriate.

"Right now, we're focused on where we are in the season. It's too early for that. I'm confident we're going to keep Connor here for a long time, but that's his decision in the end."

Jackson doesn't feel Draisaitl's eight-year extension will impact McDavid's future decision.

"They're buddies," Jackson said. "Everybody ties them at the hip, and that's the logical thing for everyone to do, but (McDavid's) his own man. He'll make his own decision. I think if we have a team that he thinks is going to compete, he'll be fine."

These comments don't strike me as someone who's burning to stay in Edmonton. I feel the vibes were very different around Draisaitl and his extension.

What do people think? Can Oilers fans give some insight on what they think is likely going to happen after this season? He's eligible to sign his extension July 1st, 2025.

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[ViD]

He would be a fool to not hit UFA if he doesn’t win a cup in Edmonton by 2026

 

[The Nuge]

Draisaitl wouldn’t have stayed if McDavid was planning to leave. He was McDavid’s best man at his wedding. You think they wouldn’t have talked about it?

 

[SEALBound]

Might depend on how he feels about the moves the Oilers make to surround him with a team capable of winning.

That said, it might end up being hard to ignore the truck yacht-load of money the Oilers will throw at him. Drai is at $14mil. Would not be shocking to see McDavid get offered something around $16mil per on a long-term deal. Maybe more if they think he might be a flight risk.

 

[MNRube]

Draisaitl wouldn’t have stayed if McDavid was planning to leave. He was McDavid’s best man at his wedding. You think they wouldn’t have talked about it?

I think McDavid and his wife will have a bigger impact on his decision than Drai. He will have leverage and if he doesn’t have a Cup by then I imagine he will be hyper focused on where he can get a couple. He will be thinking about his legacy, not about the best man at his wedding

 

[Sideline]

McDavid isn't currently eligible to sign an extension. There's no indication Edmonton will offer anything less than a blank cheque. Talk to me if he's not signed this time next year.

 

[ToDavid]

As much as we like to joke about him coming home, there’s absolutely zero reason to believe he’s not extending with Edmonton at the moment. Not much to talk about.

Edmonton has had its ups and downs but they’re as competitive as anyone in the league right now.

 

[AcerComputer]

I'd be surprised if he doesn't sign with the Leafs in 2026

 

[Dumais]

Can't imagine EDM not offering a max contract. So if he doesn't resign it won't be because of money. Which would lower his value as a rental. Maybe 8 x1st 4x2nd and 3 NHL players who scored over 100pts last season. They may not want a future's package tho, maybe a LHD and an AHL goalie.

 

[Akrapovince]

Winning a championship with the that drafted you and retiring with the team that drafted you is something he might value as well. That’s something we don’t know.

 

[DJJones]

Can't imagine EDM not offering a max contract. So if he doesn't resign it won't be because of money. Which would lower his value as a rental. Maybe 8 x1st 4x2nd and 3 NHL players who scored over 100pts last season. They may not want a future's package tho, maybe a LHD and an AHL goalie.

I don't think Edmonton goes to the cap. That would be like 18-19M.

If he doesn't resign they would 100% just go full rebuild.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Probably not because nothing interesting happens anymore , he’ll just extend in Edmonton zzzz

 

[Iggys Dome]

This discussion isn’t needed until after the summer of 2025. Right now it seems like a troll attempt

One of the greatest players of all time is eligible for an extension in 6 months. I just wanted to gauge how people feel around here. Nothing to troll about.

 

[LOFIN]

I'd be surprised if he doesn't sign with the Leafs in 2026

Prepare to be surprised. How are the Leafs going to afford him when they have Matthews, Marner and Nylander already tied up around 40M bucks?

If McDavid was to hit the UFA, the Rangers would be all in.

 

[kerrabria]

This would be worth discussing if Draisaitl still wasn't signed. But Drai did sign an extension (I seriously thought he'd walk). So unless actual news comes out, there really isn't anything to discuss beyond personal opinion and guesswork.

 

[Mr Positive]

Could happen but I doubt it. I wonder if Toronto spends that Tavares cap space this year or keeps it to make a run for McDavid. Enough of their fans at my work seem to think so

 

[Three On Zero]

The odds of McDavid going to Free Agency are about as high as the Leafs odds of winning the cup this season.

He has the attitude and personality of plain white rice, just don’t think he has it in him to put himself in the spotlight like that.

 

[kerrabria]

Remember that an 8-year-contract doesn't actually lock McDavid in Edmonton for the rest of his career. If he changes his mind, he can demand a trade, and he'll be traded to a team of his choice.

McDavid is bigger than Edmonton. Far lesser players have forced their way off teams. And since he'll have the NMC, and since pretty much any GM would trade for him, the Oilers will have to take the package of picks and cap dumps offered.

There's really no reason for McMeme to walk as a UFA, forego the eighth year, and force a team to clear out $17m in cap space with no notice.

 

[MoneyManny]

Draisaitl wouldn’t have stayed if McDavid was planning to leave. He was McDavid’s best man at his wedding. You think they wouldn’t have talked about it?

Even if McDavid told him he was leaving, you think Drai is going to follow him everywhere? Pretty sure he'd feel good being #1 in Edmonton if it comes to it.

 

[2023FriendshipTour]

Obviously if he gets to UFA he would be just like he'll be by far the highest paid player if he stays.. He'll be 29 nearing 30 when next contact kicks in so you're going to be paying for some non prime years.

 

[JiricekSaveUs]

I think he’s a lifelong oiler

 

[Oates2Neely]

Prediction:

He’ll leave for warmer weather. While Edmonton can offer the extra year, a team like Dallas Vegas Tampa or Florida has the benefit of no state tax.

McDavid to Dallas or Florida

 

[BluesyShoes]

This just in, McDavid to sign at league minimum, “all that matters is winning.”

 

[LTIR]

Can't imagine EDM not offering a max contract. So if he doesn't resign it won't be because of money. Which would lower his value as a rental. Maybe 8 x1st 4x2nd and 3 NHL players who scored over 100pts last season. They may not want a future's package tho, maybe a LHD and an AHL goalie.

McDavid says he want to win and if he is taking league max he won't be on a winning team.
He will become the highest paid player no doubt but it won't be league max

 

[Nostradumbass]

The odds of McDavid going to Free Agency are about as high as the Leafs odds of winning the cup this season.

He has the attitude and personality of plain white rice, just don’t think he has it in him to put himself in the spotlight like that.

“You really mean he’s 100% hitting free agency?” - Leafs fans everywhere