Player Discussion: Ehlers

[voyageur]

I think Pavel Buchnevich contract would be what he would be looking for 6x8. Be interesting in the off season how this plays out.

You don't think Ehlers gets 7-11 on the open market? That's the kind of contract I see him retiring on. And Chevy would have a hard time matching that. And maybe that's what it comes down to. With Scheifele here Ehlers will never be the franchise player. But there has to be a team that would deem him as that. That's probably the allure of free agency.

 

[lanky]

I typically don't weigh in on handing out titles like "franchise player" - they're a bit arbitrary. But I have to disagree here, IMO there are no teams that would consider Ehlers a franchise player.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

You don't think Ehlers gets 7-11 on the open market? That's the kind of contract I see him retiring on. And Chevy would have a hard time matching that. And maybe that's what it comes down to. With Scheifele here Ehlers will never be the franchise player. But there has to be a team that would deem him as that. That's probably the allure of free agency.

If someone wants to pay him that much go for it but it won't be us. He isn't in that echelon of player and he is only getting older not younger

 

[Adam da bomb]

You don't think Ehlers gets 7-11 on the open market? That's the kind of contract I see him retiring on. And Chevy would have a hard time matching that. And maybe that's what it comes down to. With Scheifele here Ehlers will never be the franchise player. But there has to be a team that would deem him as that. That's probably the allure of free agency.

He is far from our franchise player some of the names ahead of him mo, Helly.
I wonder which team doesn’t have at least one guy better than him. Maybe Columbus.

 

[voyageur]

I typically don't weigh in on handing out titles like "franchise player" - they're a bit arbitrary. But I have to disagree here, IMO there are no teams that would consider Ehlers a franchise player.

NY Isles come to mind. With Horvat-Barzal. I think the Isles were one of the teams who asked about him at the draft.

Detroit would probably have a good spot for him, not as a franchise player but a game breaker.

Offseason is likely a great time for agents, with some record setting bad contracts too.

 

[Adam da bomb]

NY Isles come to mind. With Horvat-Barzal. I think the Isles were one of the teams who asked about him at the draft.

Detroit would probably have a good spot for him, not as a franchise player but a game breaker.

Offseason is likely a great time for agents, with some record setting bad contracts too.

Detroit already has Larkin, Seider, Raymond, so I doubt they break open their piggy banks for the guy, therefore, making them have to overpay their own guys. Islanders look like they are about to start a re-build and would see him from stopping them from bottoming out and possibly getting some game breaking talent.

 

[voyageur]

Detroit already has Larkin, Seider, Raymond, so I doubt they break open their piggy banks for the guy, therefore, making them have to overpay their own guys. Islanders look like they are about to start a re-build and would see him from stopping them from bottoming out and possibly getting some game breaking talent.

Lamierello doesn't rebuild. He'll spend his last draft pick. He's finally kept a few 1sts. He'd have to step down. Patrick Roy isn't Trotz he'll open it up a bit can't do that with the Trotz roster though. So something has to move.

Yzerman has to win now, bank on prospects to take next step. They still need a Sergachev/Trouba type d-man. But I think if Yzerman was bidding on Stamkos last offseason he'll bid high on more talent.

 

[DRW204]

You don't think Ehlers gets 7-11 on the open market? That's the kind of contract I see him retiring on. And Chevy would have a hard time matching that. And maybe that's what it comes down to. With Scheifele here Ehlers will never be the franchise player. But there has to be a team that would deem him as that. That's probably the allure of free agency.

Ehlers is v good. But no one is giving him 11m lol.

 

[GNP]

Just reading the comments on Ehlers here, and his contract situation.
It is my opinion, that Chevy will be grinding his teeth very hard to go a penny over $ 8 mil on Ehlers.
I love the guy, he’s a great exciting player to watch, but everyone has their market value.
With this being said, as a UFA, I can see some team offers him a lot — like $ 9.5 mil yr, and I think Chevy walks away on that.

 

[Buffdog]

Just reading the comments on Ehlers here, and his contract situation.
It is my opinion, that Chevy will be grinding his teeth very hard to go a penny over $ 8 mil on Ehlers.
I love the guy, he’s a great exciting player to watch, but everyone has their market value.
With this being said, as a UFA, I can see some team offers him a lot — like $ 9.5 mil yr, and I think Chevy walks away on that.

Schief and Helle signed for 9.66% of the cap at the time

If you are going to have a salary heirchy, it needs to ba based off of that. So where does ehlers fit? 8.5%? That's 8.12M x 8 with a cap of 95.5M

At 9% it's 8.6M x 8

 

[Huffer]

Schief and Helle signed for 9.66% of the cap at the time

If you are going to have a salary heirchy, it needs to ba based off of that. So where does ehlers fit? 8.5%? That's 8.12M x 8 with a cap of 95.5M

At 9% it's 8.6M x 8

Based on this thread an others here, people are having a real problem getting their heads around Cap% and absolute $ numbers.

When the cap took very small increases you could more easily look at absolute $ number to compare players. Now with the cap taking massive jumps, it's cap% all the way (likely always has been for agents).

 

[DRW204]

Based on this thread an others here, people are having a real problem getting their heads around Cap% and absolute $ numbers.

When the cap took very small increases you could more easily look at absolute $ number to compare players. Now with the cap taking massive jumps, it's cap% all the way (likely always has been for agents).

I agree to an extent but do you think the Jets want middle 6 players making more or equal to Scheifele? I think they have Connor and Scheifele as the pace setters on salary for fwds. I don't expect Ehlers to be above 8.5m.

There was a contract projection for Ehlers last offseason by EvolvingHockey I beleive had him at 7.5*5. Another source had him at 7.5*6 recently which would take into account this year's numbers to date. I think from Jets POV mid-to-high 7s is what to expect from Ehlers.

Even with cap jumps... 11m just ain't it as mentioned earlier in this thread.

 

[Flair Hay]

Based on this thread an others here, people are having a real problem getting their heads around Cap% and absolute $ numbers.

When the cap took very small increases you could more easily look at absolute $ number to compare players. Now with the cap taking massive jumps, it's cap% all the way (likely always has been for agents).

Yup, like comparing a house sale price 6 months before Covid started to what it was 12 months later.

That $400k home would be worth $500k today. Your buddy needs to pay 400k, or even above that for something that would have cost 350k when you bought. Sucks for him, but the timing is what it is.

We can pass on this "property" at its inflated price, or try to replace it with a cheaper, but also inflated "property."

Probably a terrible example but it made sense to me as i typed it, lol. First hand experience.

I agree to an extent but do you think the Jets want middle 6 players making more or equal to Scheifele? I think they have Connor and Scheifele as the pace setters on salary for fwds. I don't expect Ehlers to be above 8.5m.

There was a contract projection for Ehlers last offseason by EvolvingHockey I beleive had him at 7.5*5. Another source had him at 7.5*6 recently which would take into account this year's numbers to date. I think from Jets POV mid-to-high 7s is what to expect from Ehlers.

Even with cap jumps... 11m just ain't it as mentioned earlier in this thread.

The cap increase may be a wild card here. Not sure if the Evolving Wild takes that into account already or not? That $7.5 may have just become $8.5 due to the projection of a 30% increase over next 3 seasons. Its still a projection, but it has to have a massive influence. It will on the GMs in July, and the agents will leverage that.

 

[DRW204]

Yup, like comparing a house sale price 6 months before Covid started to what it was 12 months later.

That $400k home would be worth $500k today. Your buddy needs to pay 400k, or even above that for something that would have cost 350k when you bought. Sucks for him, but the timing is what it is.

We can pass on this "property" at its inflated price, or try to replace it with a cheaper, but also inflated "property."

Probably a terrible example but it made sense to me as i typed it, lol. First hand experience.


The cap increase may be a wild card here. Not sure if the Evolving Wild takes that into account already or not? That $7.5 may have just become $8.5 due to the projection of a 30% increase over next 3 seasons. Its still a projection, but it has to have a massive influence. It will on the GMs in July, and the agents will leverage that.

Probably not with EW since it was last off season, and his production this year is not taken into account.

AFP Analystics assumes 95.5m cap, and was a mid season projection.

Regardless, my key message was that I think there may be a possibility that the Jets may not want to have fwds lower in the depth chart making more than Scheifele.

Also, using % of cap hit doesn't take into account the Jets are getting smashed on exchange. IE: 8% of the cap in 2025 is not the same as 2019 for instance bc the exchange is worse from jets POV.

 

[HighFlyingJets]

If someone wants to pay him that much go for it but it won't be us. He isn't in that echelon of player and he is only getting older not younger

Facts!

 

[Buffdog]

I agree to an extent but do you think the Jets want middle 6 players making more or equal to Scheifele? I think they have Connor and Scheifele as the pace setters on salary for fwds. I don't expect Ehlers to be above 8.5m.

There was a contract projection for Ehlers last offseason by EvolvingHockey I beleive had him at 7.5*5. Another source had him at 7.5*6 recently which would take into account this year's numbers to date. I think from Jets POV mid-to-high 7s is what to expect from Ehlers.

Even with cap jumps... 11m just ain't it as mentioned earlier in this thread.

Those evolving hockey projections were probably based on this year's cap

They'd have changed with the new projections

 

[Huffer]

I agree to an extent but do you think the Jets want middle 6 players making more or equal to Scheifele? I think they have Connor and Scheifele as the pace setters on salary for fwds. I don't expect Ehlers to be above 8.5m.

There was a contract projection for Ehlers last offseason by EvolvingHockey I beleive had him at 7.5*5. Another source had him at 7.5*6 recently which would take into account this year's numbers to date. I think from Jets POV mid-to-high 7s is what to expect from Ehlers.

Even with cap jumps... 11m just ain't it as mentioned earlier in this thread.

11M has no basis in cap% reality for sure. As others have said, I'm not sure if the EH projections had any idea on the huge cap increases.

From an optics perspective I don't doubt teams don't want players making more $ than their more key guys. But when have we seen cap increases this large? With cap jumps this much, I think you could still have Ehlers at a less cap % than Scheifele and Connor, and still end up making more $ per year depending on the cap number the agent and GM agree on.

It's going to be a wild offseason IMO when these guys start signing.

 

[Jets 31]

If Scheifele and Helly had to be signed for next year they would both probably get 9 or 10 million a season because the cap is higher next year. That's why i would be willing to go to 8 a year for Ehlers, if Ehlers needed to be signed at the same time as Scheifele and Helly i would have given him 7 but no higher.