Player Discussion: Ehlers

[Buffdog]

I wonder what Ehlers absolute numbers would look like if he signs in Edmonton or Montreal.

What are his numbers with MY team? That's what a GM will be thinking.

P/60 is just a fancy way of saying "coulda, would, shoulda"

Who is an example of getting more on their contract because of the points they didn’t score?

PLD

 

[TS Quint]

@TS Quint and @Adam da bomb
I am sorry for using the laughing emoji. That was unnecessary and disrespectful. I should have replied to your comments instead.

@TS Quint
As for comparables, I don't see any. Ehlers is quite unique. AFAIK, no other present players has consistently put up 60+ points pace with similar usage - middle-6 5v5 and limited PP. Or PPG points pace with his present usage - middle-6 5v5 and PP1.
Players with higher point totals than Ehlers consistently play top-6, PP1 and have higher total TOI.
@TS Quint Which player(s) do you see as comparables for his new contract taking points AND usage into account?

As I see it, you can't disregard usage, when discussing contract. Someone will wanna sign Ehlers to a topline role, play him accordingly (Top-6 and PP1) expecting PPG production... and pay him accordingly, that's $8m+.

The Jets will not sign him to a topline role (that's Connor, Vilardi for the foreseeable future on the wings), but may still re-sign him to the present role/usage (middle-6 and PP1). I'd be very surprised, if Ehlers signs anywhere for less than $8m. I expect $8-8,5m if it's with the Jets. May be higher somewhere else depending on health and playoff success this year.

I think Ehlers is a tough call. You are right there is a lot of things to factor in that can’t be qualified. But at the end of the day P/60 isn’t real. The actual points put up are. Sure, I can see Ehlers putting up some good point pace but at then of the day we see it’s not often he will play a full season.

Should the Jets be happy paying for scoring rate Vs actual scoring? I think if Ehlers averages 50 point/year for the next 7 years, which is about his career average should the Jets be considered lucky? Are we expecting him to become the same player in the playoffs as the regular season at the age of 29? Because that’s important over the span of his next contract.

For me, i feel like the Jets should be paying for a 60-65 point player. All the other “pace” and mystery box of what he might be if he got every single advantage in the world don’t matter as much to me. You don’t win games from the trainers room. Over $8 long term feels crazy. But but I’d be interested in the compareables over that mark. I just don’t feel he’s in that Scheifele / Hellebuyck level.

P/60 is just a fancy way of saying "coulda, would, shoulda"

PLD

How’s that turning out?

 

[Buffdog]

How’s that turning out?

Not as badly as it did in LA. He has 27 points in 36 games and his shot metrics, goal differential and xGF% are all good. 3rd on the Caps forwards in TOI

 

[DRW204]

So you agree we can't sign top 6. Names isn't a true top 6.

I would have traded him with 2 years left. He's not a playoff performer often injured and a perimeter player. Plus you're trying to win a Cup no ? We have a talented team that's not enough you need to get the right mix. They keep trying to pound a square peg into a round hole. This dog ain't gonna hunt in late April.

We need both D and 2nd line help. He could have possibly been moved for that.

Anyhow we'll see come playoffs. I'll just sit back and wait fool me once fool me twice but not 3 times.

excellent sales job. here's our supposed under-performing 2nd line player who you will have to make a trade or sign decision a year from now, for a better 2nd liner + D help. where does an opposing GM sign up for that?

and sure, no true top-6ers, just players who have come in and performed fine in top-6/9 (i am hesitant to call the Jets 3rd line a true bottom-6 line) roles for lesser contracts, seem like that should be characterized good value? rather than being saddled with anchors.

there's also a case for a while the Jets really didn't need big name UFA from 2021 until this past off-season. the Jets top-6 was composed of some combo of: connor, schiefele, wheeler, pld, ehlers, stastny/perfetti.... then: connor, scheifele, vilardi, ehlers, perfetti, namestnikov-who was great in the top-6 last season. this year, they returned essentially the same lineup, but couple players have been underperforming. other than monahan, who the Jets were in the final running for who else is a true top-6er they should have gotten?
Lindholm? Stamkos? doing nothing is better than signing the latter two at those deals.

lastly, if the Jets are void of true top-6ers as you say, then it'd be absences from the 2nd line, not the 1st. so ehlers has been playing with a bunch of fake top-6ers and expected to be what, way more produtive while being in the 15.5min range? he's a v good player, but this isn't patrick kane.

 

[ps241]

I think Ehlers is a tough call. You are right there is a lot of things to factor in that can’t be qualified. But at the end of the day P/60 isn’t real. The actual points put up are. Sure, I can see Ehlers putting up some good point pace but at then of the day we see it’s not often he will play a full season.

Should the Jets be happy paying for scoring rate Vs actual scoring? I think if Ehlers averages 50 point/year for the next 7 years, which is about his career average should the Jets be considered lucky? Are we expecting him to become the same player in the playoffs as the regular season at the age of 29? Because that’s important over the span of his next contract.

For me, i feel like the Jets should be paying for a 60-65 point player. All the other “pace” and mystery box of what he might be if he got every single advantage in the world don’t matter as much to me. You don’t win games from the trainers room. Over $8 long term feels crazy. But but I’d be interested in the compareables over that mark. I just don’t feel he’s in that Scheifele / Hellebuyck level.


How’s that turning out?

It will be interesting to see how this changes with what could be an aggressive cap inflation. Friedman was talking about $103-$105 million cap by as soon as the 2026-27 season. I think % of cap will be more applicable in a more turbulent market.

Now I’m not sure if that will materially impact Ehlers next contract. I don’t think it will if he extends here, but It will be one of the elements I look at if he goes to the open market on July 1st.

 

[DRW204]

I think Ehlers is a tough call. You are right there is a lot of things to factor in that can’t be qualified. But at the end of the day P/60 isn’t real. The actual points put up are. Sure, I can see Ehlers putting up some good point pace but at then of the day we see it’s not often he will play a full season.

Should the Jets be happy paying for scoring rate Vs actual scoring? I think if Ehlers averages 50 point/year for the next 7 years, which is about his career average should the Jets be considered lucky? Are we expecting him to become the same player in the playoffs as the regular season at the age of 29? Because that’s important over the span of his next contract.

For me, i feel like the Jets should be paying for a 60-65 point player. All the other “pace” and mystery box of what he might be if he got every single advantage in the world don’t matter as much to me. You don’t win games from the trainers room. Over $8 long term feels crazy. But but I’d be interested in the compareables over that mark. I just don’t feel he’s in that Scheifele / Hellebuyck level.


How’s that turning out?

he'll get paid based on his actual production for sure. points/60 just contextualizes his points based on his gp's TOI and measures efficiency. not sure how points and TOI are not real. but anyway i do agree, it's actual production that will get you paid. 60-65 pts at sub-16min/night isn't some small feat. i think given PP1 this season he may end up in the low 70s.

fwiw: evolvinghockey who run at pretty high accuracy had him around 7.5-8m depending on term prior to this season. he signed at 7.5% of the cap hit back in the day, on a 92.5m cap that's essentially 7M. idk if he hits 8, but i can see in the 7s.

 

[ps241]

excellent sales job. here's our supposed under-performing 2nd line player who you will have to make a trade or sign decision a year from now, for a better 2nd liner + D help. where does an opposing GM sign up for that?

and sure, no true top-6ers, just players who have come in and performed fine in top-6/9 (i am hesitant to call the Jets 3rd line a true bottom-6 line) roles for lesser contracts, seem like that should be characterized good value? rather than being saddled with anchors.

there's also a case for a while the Jets really didn't need big name UFA from 2021 until this past off-season. the Jets top-6 was composed of some combo of: connor, schiefele, wheeler, pld, ehlers, stastny/perfetti.... then: connor, scheifele, vilardi, ehlers, perfetti, namestnikov-who was great in the top-6 last season. this year, they returned essentially the same lineup, but couple players have been underperforming. other than monahan, who the Jets were in the final running for who else is a true top-6er they should have gotten?
Lindholm? Stamkos? doing nothing is better than signing the latter two at those deals.

lastly, if the Jets are void of true top-6ers as you say, then it'd be absences from the 2nd line, not the 1st. so ehlers has been playing with a bunch of fake top-6ers and expected to be what, way more produtive while being in the 15.5min range? he's a v good player, but this isn't patrick kane.

I saw Patrik and thought you were going to say Laine

 

[TS Quint]

he'll get paid based on his actual production for sure. points/60 just contextualizes his points based on his gp's TOI and measures efficiency. not sure how points and TOI are not real. but anyway i do agree, it's actual production that will get you paid. 60-65 pts at sub-16min/night isn't some small feat. i think given PP1 this season he may end up in the low 70s.

fwiw: evolvinghockey who run at pretty high accuracy had him around 7.5-8m depending on term prior to this season. he signed at 7.5% of the cap hit back in the day, on a 92.5m cap that's essentially 7M. idk if he hits 8, but i can see in the 7s.

Pace isn’t real. He could pace for 100 points/year for the length of his next contract but he never puts up more than 50, then his value to the team is a 50 point player. Those 100 points are never realized therefore are not real.

 

[10Ducky10]

The way Connor has played this year he will get 11+, if he keeps it up. And Ehlers will get 9.

Not in Winnipeg they won't.

 

[Weezeric]

Not in Winnipeg they won't.

If Connor scores 50g and 100p this year, and he is willing to stay, the Jets will give him whatever he wants.

 

[WaveRaven]

excellent sales job. here's our supposed under-performing 2nd line player who you will have to make a trade or sign decision a year from now, for a better 2nd liner + D help. where does an opposing GM sign up for that?

and sure, no true top-6ers, just players who have come in and performed fine in top-6/9 (i am hesitant to call the Jets 3rd line a true bottom-6 line) roles for lesser contracts, seem like that should be characterized good value? rather than being saddled with anchors.

there's also a case for a while the Jets really didn't need big name UFA from 2021 until this past off-season. the Jets top-6 was composed of some combo of: connor, schiefele, wheeler, pld, ehlers, stastny/perfetti.... then: connor, scheifele, vilardi, ehlers, perfetti, namestnikov-who was great in the top-6 last season. this year, they returned essentially the same lineup, but couple players have been underperforming. other than monahan, who the Jets were in the final running for who else is a true top-6er they should have gotten?
Lindholm? Stamkos? doing nothing is better than signing the latter two at those deals.

lastly, if the Jets are void of true top-6ers as you say, then it'd be absences from the 2nd line, not the 1st. so ehlers has been playing with a bunch of fake top-6ers and expected to be what, way more produtive while being in the 15.5min range? he's a v good player, but this isn't patrick kane.

Boy talk about putting words in people's mouths.

What I'm saying is we can't replace him via FA so letting him walk is stupid.

I never said go out and sign FAs. Though one has to admit it would be nice once in awhile.Monahan wasn't a solution but they sure wanted to double down on that.

Who said they are devoid of top 6 players not me. What I've said is that this roster as constructed cant win when it counts. So just maybe like I said you could have gotten top 6 OR D by packaging him with something. This team has badly needed a 2 C and 1 RD forever you're not getting one for nothing. Now it's a rental situation trading Nik with nothing to show for last year but a bad taste.

 

[BarnabyJones PI]

Yep, but, those are only x / 60 and not absolute stats, which I think are the important ones.

I'm no fan of rate metrics. For those that put stock in it though, who overlap with those who feel that he's been underutilized on the PP, why pay no attention to that stat? How can his routinely finishing last on the team (PP GF/60), justify his being promoted on the 1st line?

Also note, the team is entering the zone by committee. Morrissey, Scheifele, and Connor. Ehlers has been good in his role, which is exactly where he needs to be.

I think it's a pump and dump. Their problems aren't going to magically disappear in the 3rd go-round.

 

[Gm0ney]

Chevy has never gone the own rental route on a player as important as Ehlers, and I don't expect it to happen now.

Has Chevy ever had an Ehlers-level player heading for UFA? Ladd I suppose - but the Jets weren't a threat to make the playoffs that year so "own rental" wasn't an option.

 

[DRW204]

Pace isn’t real. He could pace for 100 points/year for the length of his next contract but he never puts up more than 50, then his value to the team is a 50 point player. Those 100 points are never realized therefore are not real.

I don't think anyone has said anything remotely close to this example but I haven't read every post in this thread.

Personally i think ppl shit on him a lot b/c he's just a 60ish pt player, when achieving that with his TOI is actually rare, and then consider the turnstile of fake top-6ers he has to deal with (tongue in cheek/ here). points is really usage based esp when PP1 is involved. he's getting PP1this year and is playing at a PPG level, despite still in the overall 15-16min/gp range.

anyway, he'll get paid based on what he has done for sure. i don't think anyone is saying he should be surpassing scheifele, or 9M here.... just a straight % of cap hit from his previous contract, would put him at 7M. I don't think that's outlandish.

 

[Buffdog]

I don't think anyone has said anything remotely close to this example but I haven't read every post in this thread.

Personally i think ppl shit on him a lot b/c he's just a 60ish pt player, when achieving that with his TOI is actually rare, and then consider the turnstile of fake top-6ers he has to deal with (tongue in cheek/ here). points is really usage based esp when PP1 is involved. he's getting PP1this year and is playing at a PPG level, despite still in the overall 15-16min/gp range.

anyway, he'll get paid based on what he has done for sure. i don't think anyone is saying he should be surpassing scheifele, or 9M here.... just a straight % of cap hit from his previous contract, would put him at 7M. I don't think that's outlandish.

I'd be happy with Ehlers at 7M

 

[DRW204]

Has Chevy ever had an Ehlers-level player heading for UFA? Ladd I suppose - but the Jets weren't a threat to make the playoffs that year so "own rental" wasn't an option.

at the level of ehlers, no. generally the jets extended players a year earlier like wheeler, little and scheifele.

they have had top-4D walk like dillon, myers and chiarot. frolik was a top-6 F at the time (bad fwd group). wouldn't say any are ehlers' level, but did play in the upper half of the depth chart.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Not in Winnipeg they won't.

Winnipeg gets exactly the same cap space as every other team. Most other teams have at least 1 and frequently 2,3,4 salaries higher than the Jets highest. Even with an 11 & a 9 many teams will have 1 or 2 higher. That 11 won't be until the year after next. With those numbers we are probably not even keeping up with the league.

Edit: Alternate response to your post - Then they won't be in Winnipeg. You want them to play in Winnipeg AND take a pay cut.

 

[WolfHouse]

I just want to see our powerplay fancy stats with and without ehleres...

 

[DRW204]

I'm no fan of rate metrics. For those that put stock in it though, who overlap with those who feel that he's been underutilized on the PP, why pay no attention to that stat? How can his routinely finishing last on the team (PP GF/60), justify his being promoted on the 1st line?

Also note, the team is entering the zone by committee. Morrissey, Scheifele, and Connor. Ehlers has been good in his role, which is exactly where he needs to be.

I think it's a pump and dump. Their problems aren't going to magically disappear in the 3rd go-round.

when the PP1 unit is composed entirely of the guys you mentioned what do you expect?
is a unit w/ a combo of ehlers, namestnikov, perfetti, pionk, or lowry going to score better than a combo of scheifele, connor, vilardi & morrissey?

this year ehlers has been on the PP1 and they've looked great. both units have actually. which leads me to believe there was an upgrade in coaching and found a good mix of player personnel.

 

[10Ducky10]

If Connor scores 50g and 100p this year, and he is willing to stay, the Jets will give him whatever he wants.

You must have just moved here or just started following the team.

Winnipeg gets exactly the same cap space as every other team. Most other teams have at least 1 and frequently 2,3,4 salaries higher than the Jets highest. Even with an 11 & a 9 many teams will have 1 or 2 higher. That 11 won't be until the year after next. With those numbers we are probably not even keeping up with the league.

Edit: Alternate response to your post - Then they won't be in Winnipeg. You want them to play in Winnipeg AND take a pay cut.

I will make you a bet right now that he gets less than 11 million in Winnipeg.

 

[Gm0ney]

I just want to see our powerplay fancy stats with and without ehleres...

This year at 5v4:

	TOI	CF/60	FF/60	SF/60	GF/60	xGF/60	SCF/60
with Ehlers	76:04	104.12	81.24	59.16	12.62	8.95	59.16
w/o Ehlers	86:55	80.77	65.58	43.49	11.74	6.38	40.73
	-10:51	+23.35	+15.66	+15.67	+0.88	+2.57	+18.43

Top powerplay unit only at 5v4:

	TOI	CF/60	FF/60	SF/60	GF/60	xGF/60	SCF/60
with Ehlers	73:19	106.39	82.66	60.56	13.09	9.00	59.74
w/o Ehlers	31:46	88.73	71.74	45.31	9.44	6.85	47.19
	+42:27	+17.66	+10.92	+15.25	+3.65	+2.15	+12.55

Small sample alert, and all that...but PP1 cooks when Ehlers is out there creating stuff in the offensive zone. But as someone mentioned earlier, somewhere, the top unit is seemingly designed to take advantage of Ehlers.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You must have just moved here or just started following the team.


I will make you a bet right now that he gets less than 11 million in Winnipeg.

If Connor continues playing like he has so far this year? Guaranteed he will get at least 11. If not in Wpg then somewhere else.

It isn't just his scoring this year. It is all of his game. If he had played this way earlier in his career he would have got 8.5 last time - in Wpg. So you are betting his play drops off.

 

[DRW204]

Boy talk about putting words in people's mouths.

What I'm saying is we can't replace him via FA so letting him walk is stupid.

I never said go out and sign FAs. Though one has to admit it would be nice once in awhile.Monahan wasn't a solution but they sure wanted to double down on that.

Who said they are devoid of top 6 players not me. What I've said is that this roster as constructed cant win when it counts. So just maybe like I said you could have gotten top 6 OR D by packaging him with something. This team has badly needed a 2 C and 1 RD forever you're not getting one for nothing. Now it's a rental situation trading Nik with nothing to show for last year but a bad taste.

"We need both D and 2nd line help. He could have possibly been moved for that."
that's from you. Didn't see any mentions of packaging in that post. If you meant OR rather than AND, then my bad on reading and interpreting your writing. anyway, i still doubt he returns either of them given he's oft-injured, under-performer. even with a conceivable Jets addition, who are the possible teams trading Ehlers+ for their surefire 2C or 1RD?

"Letting him walk for nothing is dumb in a city that can't sign 3rd liners never mind top 6."
i am not going to disagree with you to much on the Jets being a haven for FAs. i think they do re-sign 3rd liners adequately, again from Jets POV 3rd line is more or less an additional 2nd line, the key is getting them here first via trade it seems.

I just don't think they have desperately needed top-6ers in recent years. so, when Dec 2025 comes around and the Jets failed to address an Ehlers departure or 2C, i will be with you to judge or criticize their aggressiveness in top-6 FAs.

i am not going to shit on them to hard given how this year's FA class has turned out. they tried with Monahan, he wanted to be in Columbus w/ Gaudreau. that's for sure an L for the Jets. but i don't think anyone should feel bad on missing out on some of the other marquee names given their seasons to date (lindholm, stamkose, stephenson), or still giving namestnikov a chance given the 2nd line's play last year.

on the same token. high name valued FAs lead to more bad contracts than not, so more times than not, it may be more beneficial to stay away from that market given how these contracts usually age. i don't think you can have it both ways. Chevy will likely be the GM to see the end of their terms too

"So you agree we can't sign top 6. Names isn't a true top 6."
this is from you again. so if he is not a true top-6, then we are devoid of a top-6er. Namestnikov stats are similar to Perfetti's so that would be the same label for him as well.

if you trade a true top-6er in ehlers or another true top-6er, we still have fake top-6ers on the 2nd line.

 

[Cnile]

If Connor continues playing like he has so far this year? Guaranteed he will get at least 11. If not in Wpg then somewhere else.

It isn't just his scoring this year. It is all of his game. If he had played this way earlier in his career he would have got 8.5 last time - in Wpg. So you are betting his play drops off.

I think he’d stay for under 11 think 10.5 would keep him here

 

[Adam da bomb]

I think he’d stay for under 11 think 10.5 would keep him here

Depends on what ehlers gets. If ehlers gets 9 there is no way he agrees to less than 11.