Player Discussion: Ehlers

[Buffdog]

If Toronto and Edmonton can find a way to pay all their star players, and keep them on the roster, there is no reason they can't pony up the cash to sign Ehlers. He's an integral piece to this team, and one of the reasons we have such a great record. Letting him walk, is a big mistake.

The way they find a way to pay those guys is by gutting their depth. The results of that choice are obvious

Mcdavid and Matthews are generational talents in thr prime of their careers - you do what you have to to pay them. Ehlers is an excellent piece but probably equivalent to Nylander.

 

[Adam da bomb]

If Toronto and Edmonton can find a way to pay all their star players, and keep them on the roster, there is no reason they can't pony up the cash to sign Ehlers. He's an integral piece to this team, and one of the reasons we have such a great record. Letting him walk, is a big mistake.

To and edm’s goalies are cheap. We also spend more on depth I think. Edmonton and To’s cap situations are horrible as they are forced to give up good players for free.

The way they find a way to pay those guys is by gutting their depth. The results of that choice are obvious

Mcdavid and Matthews are generational talents in thr prime of their careers - you do what you have to to pay them. Ehlers is an excellent piece but probably equivalent to Nylander.

And ppl also think Edmonton would be better building around drai and using mcd money on depth.

 

[GNP]

To and edm’s goalies are cheap. We also spend more on depth I think. Edmonton and To’s cap situations are horrible as they are forced to give up good players for free.

We can still keep our depth players and sign Ehlers. It's like he'd likely be signed for around $ 8 to 8.5 mil per season, which is ok. From my understanding Draisaital was signed for $ 14 mil, and likely McDavid makes in that range, so we can keep upper middle guys without sacrificing depth in my opinion.

 

[Adam da bomb]

We can still keep our depth players and sign Ehlers. It's like he'd likely be signed for around $ 8 to 8.5 mil per season, which is ok. From my understanding Draisaital was signed for $ 14 mil, and likely McDavid makes in that range, so we can keep upper middle guys without sacrificing depth in my opinion.

Hope you are right as he is fun to watch.

 

[Buffdog]

To and edm’s goalies are cheap. We also spend more on depth I think. Edmonton and To’s cap situations are horrible as they are forced to give up good players for free.


And ppl also think Edmonton would be better building around drai and using mcd money on depth.

Its crazy to think that we had Jomo, Schief, Connor, Ehlers and Helle in their primes for roughly $31M combined before this season and Edmonton has McDrai for $21M

Would you rather have our 5 guys or Edmonton's 2 with 3 more players at an average of 3.3M each including a dman and a goalie)?

 

[scelaton]

The way they find a way to pay those guys is by gutting their depth. The results of that choice are obvious

Mcdavid and Matthews are generational talents in thr prime of their careers - you do what you have to to pay them. Ehlers is an excellent piece but probably equivalent to Nylander.

I think Nylander is a reasonable comparator. Nylander has produced a lot more recently (till this season) but has also been given significantly more opportunity and TOI.

But the contract the Leafs signed him to is nuts--$92M over 8 years with $11.5 AAV. There is no way Ehlers or Nylander are worth that, but it does distort the marketplace for an upcoming UFA.

High level players like Ehlers are looking to win, to have a good locker room, make as much money as possible, be given opportunity to play, and live in a good city. If the Jets aren't going to offer Ehlers Nylander money--and I'm on record as saying they should not go above 8.5 under any circumstance--then they have to optimize the other things. Fortunately, they have achieved the first two in spades this season, so far anyway.

 

[Flair Hay]

Scott Arniel's job is not to appease each and every player. They all know their roles by now. Special teams are going to be a factor in ice time. Also which zone the faceoffs are in, as I would say the 2nd line is likely the 4th choice for defensive zone assignments.

Let's be fair getting promoted to the top PP is a chance for Ehlers to pad his stats, maybe hit the 80 point mark for the first time in his career. That alone will make the guy some money this offseason, whether it be here or elsewhere. So he should be grateful.

I like his game this year more than any other year. I used to always criticize him for never getting inside the circles for scoring chances, and he's doing it now. Be interested to know what was said between him and Arniel this offseason.

This is fair, can't always keep everyone happy. And we are winning so much it's impossible to move away from what we are doing right now.

I think it's fair to question why the 91-7-27 line would be 4th choice over the boards for defensive zone. Depending on how much you value faceoffs they are arguably the clear 2nd choice for that role. That's definitely a consideration for why Ehlers specifically gets less ice time though you are very right.

I don't think Ehlers is doing anything different than he has. It's probably easier to get to the front of the net and the dangerous areas in October than it is in April.

But Ehlers has always scored like crazy on the team per minute in the ice time he gets. Only now that PP opportunity has increased significantly and it is a successful PP so his numbers are increasing to what everyone knew they likely would be in this role.

 

[GNP]

I think the Jets may free up some cap space to sign Ehlers ( 8.5) then Connor next year at $ 9.5 to 10, just by letting Iaffalo walk and saving $ 4.5 mil per year, and likely letting Pionk go, saving about $ 6 mil.

This is what I think will likely happen. Should be interesting.

 

[Jet]

The biggest stregth i see Ehlers bringing to the PP is his zone entry wizardry

The Jets really struggled to get the puck in the zone and set up last season (and then still sucked even when they did)

It's funny though, I've been watching really carefully and pretty much everyone on pp1 is making smart entry decisions.

I think coaching is the biggest change here.

Ehlers adds another deft puck handler, part, and heavy shot option. There's too many weapons to defend.

Then pp2 just grinds it out

 

[Weezeric]

I think the Jets may free up some cap space to sign Ehlers ( 8.5) then Connor next year at $ 9.5 to 10, just by letting Iaffalo walk and saving $ 4.5 mil per year, and likely letting Pionk go, saving about $ 6 mil.

This is what I think will likely happen. Should be interesting.

There should be lots of cap space to sign everyone. I think the Jets see Pionk and Samberg as a long term pairing.

 

[Jets 31]

I think Nylander is a reasonable comparator. Nylander has produced a lot more recently (till this season) but has also been given significantly more opportunity and TOI.

But the contract the Leafs signed him to is nuts--$92M over 8 years with $11.5 AAV. There is no way Ehlers or Nylander are worth that, but it does distort the marketplace for an upcoming UFA.

High level players like Ehlers are looking to win, to have a good locker room, make as much money as possible, be given opportunity to play, and live in a good city. If the Jets aren't going to offer Ehlers Nylander money--and I'm on record as saying they should not go above 8.5 under any circumstance--then they have to optimize the other things. Fortunately, they have achieved the first two in spades this season, so far anyway.

I love watching Ehlers play and i definitely want him to stay a Jet and i really think Chevy re-signs Ehlers. Now having said that we need way more out of him come playoffs , 4 goals and 10 assists in 37 games just isn't good enough for a player with his talent.

 

[GNP]

There should be lots of cap space to sign everyone. I think the Jets see Pionk and Samberg as a long term pairing.

I'm sure your quite right on this, as I haven't really done the math, regarding staying under the Cap, and keeping all the guys. If we can sign Ehlers, and he fits, and doesn't throw our Cap situation out of line, that's great. I do think they'll let Iaffalo go tho, as $ 4.5 mil, is way too much for what he brings, in my opinion. We'll see how it plays out.

 

[JetsFan815]

Scott Arniel's job is not to appease each and every player. They all know their roles by now. Special teams are going to be a factor in ice time. Also which zone the faceoffs are in, as I would say the 2nd line is likely the 4th choice for defensive zone assignments.

Let's be fair getting promoted to the top PP is a chance for Ehlers to pad his stats, maybe hit the 80 point mark for the first time in his career. That alone will make the guy some money this offseason, whether it be here or elsewhere. So he should be grateful.

I like his game this year more than any other year. I used to always criticize him for never getting inside the circles for scoring chances, and he's doing it now. Be interested to know what was said between him and Arniel this offseason.

Ehlers is a pending UFA, he has a lot of leverage. There is give and take involved in anything related to running a franchise, 16 mins a night is not asking for much. If you are not willing to give a little on that, you may not get anything back if he decides to move to other pastures as a UFA.

 

[Flair Hay]

Good post, and I agree with it. It's very important to keep core players, and Ehlers is an important core player for the Jets. They should try hard to sign him, and I'm sure they would like too.

If it is the case where Ehlers can command $ 8.5 to 9 mil per year as a UFA, do you sign him for equal or more than Helle and Scheifele ? That will be a hurdle that will have to be overcome. Maybe Ehlers takes less, not to rock the boat, but this all depends on how much he likes it here, and wants to stay ?

I think what will happen with Ehlers, is the Jets will see how his year goes just past the New Year, and start making decisions. If he keeps up his current rate of production, they'd have no choice but to pay him, if they want to keep him. I'd like to see him resigned.

Not sure what everyone else thinks... I have zero hesitation signing Ehlers to same deal as Helle and Scheif.

If it's cheaper? Great.

 

[Jet]

Not sure what everyone else thinks... I have zero hesitation signing Ehlers to same deal as Helle and Scheif.

If it's cheaper? Great.

I don't think he's earned that pay tier. I'm also worried about his durability.

 

[voyageur]

Not sure what everyone else thinks... I have zero hesitation signing Ehlers to same deal as Helle and Scheif.

If it's cheaper? Great.

Not me.

You need to have a pecking order and right now you have 2 franchise players locked up.

I'd be looking at Vilardi around $6.75 million AAV
Pionk $6.25 million AAV (same as Josh)
Samberg $5 million AAV
Appleton $3.25 million AAV
Namestnikov $4 million AAV
Kupari $1.5 million AAV
Barron $1.5 million AAV
Fleury $850 000 AAV

That is another $29 million in Cap added to the $51+ million in Cap space invested. Cap room to give healthy increases to Connor, Perfetti and Lowry for the following season.

And a roster spot open in the top of the lineup for Yager/Lambert and bottom for JAD/Chibrikov.

Like this year's team minimal changes, one or two players to replace.

Ehlers gets paid (probably higher than the combo of Scheif/Helle) on the open market and the next chapter begins.

Unpopular but the way I would go.

 

[Flair Hay]

I don't think he's earned that pay tier. I'm also worried about his durability.

Scared money don't make money

 

[Jet]

Scared money don't make money

Scared money also doesn't end up living under a bridge because their cousin Vinnie had a great tip about crypto

 

[Flair Hay]

Not me.

You need to have a pecking order and right now you have 2 franchise players locked up.

I'd be looking at Vilardi around $6.75 million AAV
Pionk $6.25 million AAV (same as Josh)
Samberg $5 million AAV
Appleton $3.25 million AAV
Namestnikov $4 million AAV
Kupari $1.5 million AAV
Barron $1.5 million AAV
Fleury $850 000 AAV

That is another $29 million in Cap added to the $51+ million in Cap space invested. Cap room to give healthy increases to Connor and Lowry for the following season.

And a roster spot open in the top of the lineup for Yager/Lambert and bottom for JAD/Chibrikov.

Like this year's team minimal changes, one or two players to replace.

Ehlers gets paid (probably higher than the combo of Scheif/Helle) on the open market and the next chapter begins.

Unpopular but the way I would go.

Of course. Can't have Ehlers making what Scheif and Helle are making.

Also, pay Pionk exactly what Morrissey is making?

Weall see it differently and that's okay. Is this what you expect to happen, or what you would do if it were your decision?

 

[Flair Hay]

Scared money also doesn't end up living under a bridge because their cousin Vinnie had a great tip about crypto

My philosophy is injuries are harder to predict than we think. Some guys can't stay healthy at all, until they can.

I don't want Ehlers best, most durable years spent somewhere else. Not saying that's a sure thing that happens! But what if it does?

 

[voyageur]

Of course. Can't have Ehlers making what Scheif and Helle are making.

Also, pay Pionk exactly what Morrissey is making?

Weall see it differently and that's okay. Is this what you expect to happen, or what you would do if it were your decision?

A little from column A and column B. Morrissey signed such a sweetheart deal that his number is so low for his actual value. I don't think you can decrease Pionk's salary given what he is doing this year, on the open market his production would get more than Morrissey's. So that's a compromise. And hopefully the Jets are around long enough to reward Josh for his final contract.

If I am blowing high dough it's on Connor because a potential 50 goal scorer is something you can't replace.

My number for Ehlers would be only slightly higher than Vilardi.

But I'm not GM and it's always hard to figure out who is playing their best for their next and probably last big contract and who is going to age well, fits into the core, etc.

 

[Flair Hay]

A little from column A and column B. Morrissey signed such a sweetheart deal that his number is so low for his actual value. I don't think you can decrease Pionk's salary given what he is doing this year, on the open market his production would get more than Morrissey's. So that's a compromise. And hopefully the Jets are around long enough to reward Josh for his final contract.

If I am blowing high dough it's on Connor because a potential 50 goal scorer is something you can't replace.

My number for Ehlers would be only slightly higher than Vilardi.

But I'm not GM and it's always hard to figure out who is playing their best for their next and probably last big contract and who is going to age well, fits into the core, etc.

Fair enough. More interested in what you would do, how you truly feel. I have my concerns with how the team may see it.

Everyone sees things differently. To me the hierarchy of priority should be:

Ehlers this year
Connor next year

Perfetti next year
Lowry next year
Samberg next year

Pionk this year
Appleton this year
Namestnikov this year

Iafallo this year

That's what their value they've provided over the last several years. That's obviously subjective...

I love the idea of integrating Yager, Lambert and/or Chibrikov

I think we are more likely to have smaller drop off in performance from Namestnikov to Yager or Appleton to Chibrikov than we are Ehlers to Lambert. Or for that matter, Pionk to Colin Miller...

 

[Buffdog]

Of course. Can't have Ehlers making what Scheif and Helle are making.

Also, pay Pionk exactly what Morrissey is making?

Weall see it differently and that's okay. Is this what you expect to happen, or what you would do if it were your decision?

Pionk and Ehlers would be making less according to % of the cap when the deals would be signed, which makes a difference

 

[Flair Hay]

Pionk and Ehlers would be making less according to % of the cap when the deals would be signed, which makes a difference

Absolutely. That's part of the reason I'm okay with the same raw AAV for Nik.

Morrissey did sign a while ago so that not really relevant anymore. Youre right there for sure. Just thought it was odd to mention it is the exact same AAV as Josh. Probably just the way I read the wording that threw me off.

I can't see what world Ehlers hasn't earned $8.5, but Pionk has earned a raise. I see it as Ehlers performed like a $8-9M player the last few years - but has a history of no showing in playoffs and injuries throughout the middle of his 8 year career. Where as Pionk has (imo) performed like a $3-4M player since Morrissey supplanted him on the top PP unit a few years back.

Both have been great to start the year though! My opinion on Pionk will change the longer he is able to sustain his play.

 

[voyageur]

Fair enough. More interested in what you would do, how you truly feel. I have my concerns with how the team may see it.

Everyone sees things differently. To me the hierarchy of priority should be:

Ehlers this year
Connor next year

Perfetti next year
Lowry next year
Samberg next year

Pionk this year
Appleton this year
Namestnikov this year

Iafallo this year

That's what their value they've provided over the last several years. That's obviously subjective...

I love the idea of integrating Yager, Lambert and/or Chibrikov

I think we are more likely to have smaller drop off in performance from Namestnikov to Yager or Appleton to Chibrikov than we are Ehlers to Lambert. Or for that matter, Pionk to Colin Miller...

I would definitely re-sign Pionk and Apples. I think Pionk and Samberg are showing themselves to be a decent top 4 pairing, competitive. And the two are close, so I think it makes sense to keep them.. The Jets defense doesn't have a lot of depth. I see the potential for Salomonsson to jump up on the top pair, and a bottom pairing of Stanley-De Melo has some value, and is proven. Colin Miller may or may not be part of the future of the Jets, he's only signed for 2 years, so I wouldnt bank on him. Losing a d-man would leave the Jets with zero depth on defense. Lundmark is the only guy who would be in the system next year with any value, so it would be plugs, and if you can pass waivers, you are probably not a top 4 potential d-man. Or even a good NHL defenseman. I do think Heinola may get traded this year to address this issue.

Appleton is the underrated guy on the Lowry line. Lowry has had good numbers with him, and the Jets have made the playoffs every year with that duo being healthy. So that's a chemistry thing for me, where the actual value of the player is relative to his linemates and role.

I don't see Chibrikov and a defensively responsible player to offset Appleton. I think he's a guy who maybe gets on a defensively sound 4th line, and adds some offense on the PP, like Iafallo. Could play his way on to the 2nd line as an injury replacement. I think the Jets need to make room for him, because I don't know if he will do another tour in the A or ask for opportunity elsewhere.

Ehlers is the toughest one for me. The Jets run the risk of spending upwards of $30 million in the future on top 6 wingers (if Perfetti gets a nice raise too) and that gets to be dangerous territory because wingers are generally the easiest to replace. Vilardi is important because he is big and physical and the Jets can't be too optimistic about Barlow being able to fill his shoes. KC is the best pure scorer on the team , when he is on that's when the Jets are most dangerous.

I absolutely love the way Ehlers is playing this year, but I don't know if he can sustainably play that way. Seeing him in the crease poking at pucks, taking shots after whistles, I've waited years for that. That's playing to score goals. Zone entries and all that is nice, but scoring goals takes a bit of courage and some lumps. I don't have a solid opinion on this one, I'll watch it play out.

I've really come to appreciate Namestnikov's game. He's even been a fairly reliable centre on the draw, but I like the way he plays away from the puck, I think his versatility is something the Jets would like to keep.

I'm not the boss, just a fan, and I don't know the inside of the locker room, so I'll trust the qualified people to make the decisions.