Ehlers why Didnt We Trade Him

[Buffdog]

5v5 average shift time for forwards is 46.2 seconds so far this season.

Ehlers' average at 5v5 is 46.6 seconds. Scheifele's is 56.4. Connor's is 54.4.

Nearly 10 seconds per shift more for Scheifele than Ehlers...x 1307 shifts.

Scheif's got the 5th longest average shift length for a forward at 5v5 in the NHL (out of 443 forwards with 200+ TOI), behind Kaprizov, McDavid, Rossi and Zuccarello (Minnesota seems to prefer long shift lengths in general).

Connor's got the 8th longest average shift length, with Matt Boldy and Marcus Johansson between him and Schief (really, wtf is Minnesota doing?)

Ehlers is 197th.

So it seems like either Arniel is pushing Scheifele and Connor out there for longer shifts, or they're deciding themselves to stay out longer and he's not objecting to it.

So what you're saying is that someone really needs to get that McDavid under control?

I'd have to pay closer attention, but I'd wager that CSV takes longer shifts because they tend to have extended zone times... unfortunately, at both ends of the ice

When they get hemmed in (as they do), they obviously can't get off the ice. When they go to work in the O zone, it's less taxing to be the chased rather than the chaser... so, again, they'll be out there longer

At the end of the day, posters on here are clearly more concerned about it than the coaching staff - and I'm not sure why. People seeking "shift length justice" for Ehelrs is a headscratcher

 

[raideralex99]

I heard in a podcast from someone who interviewed Ehlers a few months ago and he told him that winning the Stanley Cup is very important to him .... does that sound famiiar?

 

[Gm0ney]

Or maybe it’s just a reflection of play style. Scheifele and Connor like to get in the zone and play a puck possession game down low, leading to more zone time and longer shifts. Ehlers likes to skate in to the zone and either get a chance off the rush, or shoot from anywhere. That leads to either a frozen puck if he hits the net or wraps around the boards and out of the zone if he misses. Either way he changes.

The NHLEdge data shows Ehlers (right) spends more of his time in the offensive zone, and less in the defensive zone than Scheifele (left):

 

[Gm0ney]

So what you're saying is that someone really needs to get that McDavid under control?

I'd have to pay closer attention, but I'd wager that CSV takes longer shifts because they tend to have extended zone times... unfortunately, at both ends of the ice

When they get hemmed in (as they do), they obviously can't get off the ice. When they go to work in the O zone, it's less taxing to be the chased rather than the chaser... so, again, they'll be out there longer

At the end of the day, posters on here are clearly more concerned about it than the coaching staff - and I'm not sure why. People seeking "shift length justice" for Ehelrs is a headscratcher

If you remove the weird Minnesota penchant for long shifts, McDavid - Scheifele - Connor are 1-2-3 in average forward shift length. Somehow Vilardi is at 51.3 seconds per shift - 5.1 seconds less than Scheifele, despite playing on the same line. Maybe he's closer to the bench or something...lol.

It does seem odd for a team with depth like the Jets to overload like that. The Oilers have decent forward depth too, but "More McDavid!" has been every Edmonton coach's Plan A, B, and C since he was drafted.

It looks like Scheifele and Connor at least have the green light to extend their shifts. All the rest of the Jets are closer to league average, with the 4th line getting below average shift lengths (which makes sense because they'll situationally get subbed out on faceoffs).

 

[voyageur]

The NHLEdge data shows Ehlers (right) spends more of his time in the offensive zone, and less in the defensive zone than Scheifele (left):
View attachment 1004670

Does it show where though? There was a play last night I remember where Ehlers is manning the point but Fleury is also there on the same side, so Fleury changes, because Nik is not in an attack position. Jets ended up giving the puck away because they were outmanned down low. If Nik is up on the blue line, which is part of where he plays, away from the net, then he should be the first forward off.

 

[Gm0ney]

Does it show where though? There was a play last night I remember where Ehlers is manning the point but Fleury is also there on the same side, so Fleury changes, because Nik is not in an attack position. Jets ended up giving the puck away because they were outmanned down low. If Nik is up on the blue line, which is part of where he plays, away from the net, then he should be the first forward off.

Edge doesn't share the player's location data to that extent. The best they've got is the shot maps:

Scheifele takes more shots from the dangerous areas (54%) and fewer shots from the outside. But Ehlers is an indiscriminate shooter who puts a lot of pucks on net from everywhere. He takes about 38% of his shots from the danger areas. By "danger areas" I mean the crease, and the low and high slot up the middle.

In terms of rates, Scheifele is 4.15/60 from the danger areas, and Ehlers is 4.64/60.

If you want to limit it to crease and low slot, it's 3.52/60 for Scheif and 2.90/60 for Ehlers.

 

[Weezeric]

The NHLEdge data shows Ehlers (right) spends more of his time in the offensive zone, and less in the defensive zone than Scheifele (left):
View attachment 1004670

I’m glad we’re debating .4% differences now…

 

[DRW204]

Edge doesn't share the player's location data to that extent. The best they've got is the shot maps:
View attachment 1004743

Scheifele takes more shots from the dangerous areas (54%) and fewer shots from the outside. But Ehlers is an indiscriminate shooter who puts a lot of pucks on net from everywhere. He takes about 38% of his shots from the danger areas. By "danger areas" I mean the crease, and the low and high slot up the middle.

In terms of rates, Scheifele is 4.15/60 from the danger areas, and Ehlers is 4.64/60.

If you want to limit it to crease and low slot, it's 3.52/60 for Scheif and 2.90/60 for Ehlers.

money puck has it too:

MoneyPuck.com -Shot Maps

Career and Game by Game Stats and Shot Maps For Each NHL Player

moneypuck.com

 

[surixon]

So what you're saying is that someone really needs to get that McDavid under control?

I'd have to pay closer attention, but I'd wager that CSV takes longer shifts because they tend to have extended zone times... unfortunately, at both ends of the ice

When they get hemmed in (as they do), they obviously can't get off the ice. When they go to work in the O zone, it's less taxing to be the chased rather than the chaser... so, again, they'll be out there longer

At the end of the day, posters on here are clearly more concerned about it than the coaching staff - and I'm not sure why. People seeking "shift length justice" for Ehelrs is a headscratcher

McDavid absolutely does need to get it under control. Most Oiler fans haven't been super impressed with his play this year.

Anyhow I think it should be a bit concerning that both of those two are near the top of the list especially with playoffs approaching.

I mean it's a cater to your stars league. If both Mark and Kyle like staying on for extra offense then what is Arniel really going to do as long as it's not greatly hurting the team. He's not going to repeatedly sit his top players to get them to shorten their shifts. We see how that approach works for guys like Torts.

 

[Gm0ney]

I’m glad we’re debating .4% differences now…

The topic of debate was the discrepancy between Scheifele/Connor and Ehlers shift lengths.

You thought that the difference might have something to do with the different playing styles: Scheifele and Connor play a possession game and Ehlers is one-and-done. But the NHLEdge zone time share doesn't appear to support that - although maybe Ehlers' extra neutral zone time is when he's skating to the bench?

Anyway, if Scheifele was spending a lot of that extra 10 seconds per shift in the offensive zone, it would likely show up here.

 

[Jet]

During Maurice's last two years Wheeler was actual coach and Maurice were his puppet (which was so humiliating to Maurice he quit).

Scheifele was during Coach Wheeler's tenure his willing right hand man. So it is no surprise there is still after so many years some behavior which he does that is unacceptable.

When the team wins it won't raise discussion. But you all remembered how it looked when entitled players played poorly and still did their antics.

Arniel don't have clout or even a valid reason to cut Scheifele's antics. But when things go bad in future, Arniel can't do anything to monster he endured during sunny days.

Ehlers is probably tired to be always the guy who gets short stick.

You should write fantasy novels

 

[DRW204]

The NHLEdge data shows Ehlers (right) spends more of his time in the offensive zone, and less in the defensive zone than Scheifele (left):
View attachment 1004670

these % differences are so small.

like can anyone actually see 44.3% vs 44.7% difference?

& this works both ways or sides of the argument.

 

[Weezeric]

The topic of debate was the discrepancy between Scheifele/Connor and Ehlers shift lengths.

You thought that the difference might have something to do with the different playing styles: Scheifele and Connor play a possession game and Ehlers is one-and-done. But the NHLEdge zone time share doesn't appear to support that - although maybe Ehlers' extra neutral zone time is when he's skating to the bench?

Anyway, if Scheifele was spending a lot of that extra 10 seconds per shift in the offensive zone, it would likely show up here.

Well the same percentage of a longer shift would mean more time in the offensive zone

 

[DRW204]

If you remove the weird Minnesota penchant for long shifts, McDavid - Scheifele - Connor are 1-2-3 in average forward shift length. Somehow Vilardi is at 51.3 seconds per shift - 5.1 seconds less than Scheifele, despite playing on the same line. Maybe he's closer to the bench or something...lol.

It does seem odd for a team with depth like the Jets to overload like that. The Oilers have decent forward depth too, but "More McDavid!" has been every Edmonton coach's Plan A, B, and C since he was drafted.

It looks like Scheifele and Connor at least have the green light to extend their shifts. All the rest of the Jets are closer to league average, with the 4th line getting below average shift lengths (which makes sense because they'll situationally get subbed out on faceoffs).

and how often does the "they're tired" or "they're gassed" excuse gets paraded around here or by the team? i get it if you're fighting for the POs and down in a bunch of games, or if the rest of the line-up are scrubs... but none of that fits this team.

 

[Johnny HFBOARDS]

Pay Ehlers or he will retire in the sun like many before him and pretend to care.

 

[Flair Hay]

Pay Ehlers or he will retire in the sun like many before him and pretend to care.

This got me thinking about take home pay in Winnipeg vs take home pay in one of the tax free states.

I asked AI to estimate, given players are taxed according to where they "work", etc, what AAV/total contract value would be needed for Ehlers take home on a 7 year deal today match an AAV of $8.250 here ($66M total)

This is what i got:

If Winnipeg offers Ehlers an 8-year deal at $8.25M AAV ($66M total), a no-tax state would need to offer a 7-year deal at $8.37M AAV ($58.59M total) to match his take-home pay of $35.016M. The slight AAV increase ($0.12M) reflects the tax-free state’s efficiency (no state tax on home games), while Winnipeg’s extra year adds gross value but not net pay.

So not an exact science, but a compass of what Ehlers may be willing to accept from other teams, or we may need to offer to be the best offer.