Ehlers why Didnt We Trade Him

[scelaton]

... A career 60 point 2nd line winger is a lot easier to replace. We also have players in the org who have the potential to do that, but admittedly no one who will likely just step in and do it. Then you have to consider what the Jets need NOW which are guys who perform in the playoffs....

If this is how Chevy starts the convo with Ehlers' agent, that might explain why he is biding his time for UFA. It basically says we don't see you as anything special and justifies their past utilization of him.
There are multiple teams in the league who will tell Ehlers agent they see a first line winger with game-breaking talent and will play and promote hime as such, BUT his AAV and contract length also have to have a risk premium built in. That is a very different message.

My question would be can Perfetti replace Ehelers production next year if given Ehlers increased minutes. He's been roughly a ppg the last 23 gamed with less then ideal usage. If he can then you are really looking at someone to replace 40 to 50 points in Cole's current role which I think would be more doable for a guy like Lambert.

Pionk is tough for me. He's going to cost around 8 million and he's not a perfect player. Problem is Salomonsson is still likely a couple years away from top 4.

Why not both Ehlers and Perfetti on the top 6 if we can afford them?
Re Pionk, I agree with the bolded. Also, Samberg's evolution has changed the equation, since he is no longer just a complementary #4 for Pionk. If Snerg is developing into a #3 two-way LD, then we don't necessarily need a small offensive RD as his partner.

 

[ps241]

If this is how Chevy starts the convo with Ehlers' agent, that might explain why he is biding his time for UFA. It basically says we don't see you as anything special and justifies their past utilization of him.
There are multiple teams in the league who will tell Ehlers agent they see a first line winger with game-breaking talent and will play and promote hime as such, BUT his AAV and contract length also have to have a risk premium built in. That is a very different message.

Why not both Ehlers and Perfetti on the top 6 if we can afford them?
Re Pionk, I agree with the bolded. Also, Samberg's evolution has changed the equation, since he is no longer just a complementary #4 for Pionk. If Snerg is developing into a #3 two-way LD, then we don't necessarily need a small offensive RD as his partner.

I see Snerg already developing into a #2 top pairing level two-way defender that is capable of carrying a lesser defender to decent results on our 2nd pairing. Doesn’t mean we can’t use Neil’s offense but that is the level Dylan is already getting to IMO. Not shitting on Neil he is doing well on the 2nd pair this season and he does bring offense it’s just that he has had some bad seasons too.

 

[surixon]

Without a 2nd line centre and without Ehlers I just think that is too much to expect. They had trouble this season at times and that is with a prime Nik, and an emerging Perfetti. I think they would need a 60 point type winger if they want to rebuild the second line.

$8 million is really expensive for a guy like Neil but it is what it is.

My hope is that they transition Cole back to center next year. He's already playing like the a second center on his line currently that they might as well make it permanent.

But I agree that they could use another proven offensive guy. Maybe they make a trade for a gritty guy with size with some offense to play with Cole and then you put Lambert as the speedy transition winger on the right.

 

[WolfHouse]

My question would be can Perfetti replace Ehelers production next year if given Ehlers increased minutes. He's been roughly a ppg the last 23 gamed with less then ideal usage. If he can then you are really looking at someone to replace 40 to 50 points in Cole's current role which I think would be more doable for a guy like Lambert.

Pionk is tough for me. He's going to cost around 8 million and he's not a perfect player. Problem is Salomonsson is still likely a couple years away from top 4.

Im still in the camp of Perfetti replacing Vilardi on the top line rather than as an alternative to Ehlers... Ehlers has that x-factor that can win games, Perfetti is still a couple years away from that I think

Agreed on Pionk - I'd overpay Samberg with an 8 year contract before keeping Pionk

KFC-Scheif-Perfetti
Ehlers-Lowry-Vilardi
Nino-Names-Lambert
Tanev-Barron-Chibrikov
Kupari/Gus

Jomo-DeMelo
Samberg-Miller
Schenn-Salo

I don't think we should make the same mistake by 'over-developing' D in the A just to pressbox them... get Salo trial by fire

That being said, I don't see a scenario where Chevy doesn't sign Pionk - solidifying the 'win' in the Trouba trade...

 

[surixon]

If this is how Chevy starts the convo with Ehlers' agent, that might explain why he is biding his time for UFA. It basically says we don't see you as anything special and justifies their past utilization of him.
There are multiple teams in the league who will tell Ehlers agent they see a first line winger with game-breaking talent and will play and promote hime as such, BUT his AAV and contract length also have to have a risk premium built in. That is a very different message.

Why not both Ehlers and Perfetti on the top 6 if we can afford them?
Re Pionk, I agree with the bolded. Also, Samberg's evolution has changed the equation, since he is no longer just a complementary #4 for Pionk. If Snerg is developing into a #3 two-way LD, then we don't necessarily need a small offensive RD as his partner.

Ideally Ehlers stays and Cole plays 2C and they bring in a gritty winger with size to round out the line and create two balanced top caliber lines.

This was just me musing on how we could make up his production if he left though.

CSV
Fly Fetts gritty winger
Name Lowry Nino
Chibrikov Barron Tanev

Seems like a good and balanced lineup with size, speed and skill on each line.

 

[ps241]

My hope is that they transition Cole back to center next year. He's already playing like the a second center on his line currently that they might as well make it permanent.

But I agree that they could use another proven offensive guy. Maybe they make a trade for a gritty guy with size with some offense to play with Cole and then you put Lambert as the speedy transition winger on the right.

I am not sold on Lambert as a future top 6 asset at this point but I will remain hopeful. I am probably going to just wait and see what happens with Nik at this point. If he is done after we win the Stanley Cup then I will start thinking more about the future without him.

 

[surixon]

Im still in the camp of Perfetti replacing Vilardi on the top line rather than as an alternative to Ehlers... Ehlers has that x-factor that can win games, Perfetti is still a couple years away from that I think

Agreed on Pionk - I'd overpay Samberg with an 8 year contract before keeping Pionk

KFC-Scheif-Perfetti
Ehlers-Lowry-Vilardi
Nino-Names-Lambert
Tanev-Barron-Chibrikov
Kupari/Gus

Jomo-DeMelo
Samberg-Miller
Schenn-Salo

I don't think we should make the same mistake by 'over-developing' D in the A just to pressbox them... get Salo trial by fire

That being said, I don't see a scenario where Chevy doesn't sign Pionk - solidifying the 'win' in the Trouba trade...

I expect Salomonsson to make the team year after next in his d plus 5 as that is when both Miller and Schenn's contracts expire for the bottom pairing RD spot. Seems like it is purposefully set up for a spot to open for him then.

He won't be hurt by a second AHL year imo.

 

[surixon]

I am not sold on Lambert as a top 6 asset at this point. I am probably going to just wait and see what happens with Nik at this point. If he is done after we win the Stanley Cup then I will start thinking a bit more about the future.

Oh I'm not either, he's just the closest to ready we have if we have to pivot that way.

Ideally they find some way to keep fly and then use Lambert plus to fill the second line winger spot with a skilled player with size and grit to balance that line.

 

[10Ducky10]

Pionk 7 x 7.5m.
10m
10m
10m
6m
6m
5.5m
5m

 

[GNP]

All this talk here about signing Pionk, and it reminds me of how good a GM that Chevy is. His back was up against the wall, with Trouba only wanting to go to NY. Still Chevy was able to acquire even a better defenseman than Trouba, by getting Pionk. Chevy and his scouts are on top of things. Trouba has basically struggled since going to NY, whereas Pionk has flourished.

As for signing Pionk, I don’t know what to think ? but talk of $ 8 mil, is too high in my opinion. I think around $ 6.5 to 7 would be ok.

Be interesting to see what Chevy and the Jets value Pionk at ??

I think Ehlers is the most important signing tho, and I’ve expressed my opinion on the importance of signing him. He makes the 2nd line work.

 

[Whileee]

I think they'll likely both be paid 'too much'.

The considerations have to be:

• Team need
• Potential longevity
• How 'too much'

The Jets organizationally have no one who's going to touch replacing Pionk in the near future, in their contending window. A top 4 RHD with proven offensive production is going to be difficult to acquire. A career 60 point 2nd line winger is a lot easier to replace. We also have players in the org who have the potential to do that, but admittedly no one who will likely just step in and do it. Then you have to consider what the Jets need NOW which are guys who perform in the playoffs. Pretty much all of the Jets have something to prove here but at least Pionk has shown he can do it.

Ehlers is often injured and his game revolves around his speed. He's pretty likely to underperform his contract and could end up a buyout. Pionk has been injured recently too, but probably has a bit of an edge here.

No idea which player would be more overpaid, but it might be Pionk wth the premium on top 4 RHD.

I think your statement is more based on emotional attachment than reality for the org.

I'm not so sure about the relative values in your assessment. The Jets have Miller and Salomonsson that they could probably slot into a 2/3 RD scenario without losing a bunch of value in the next few years (which is the Jets' ideal competitive window). I'm not sure why, but many seem to undervalue Miller. The Jets also have Schenn signed for next season, though I see him more as a fringe roster player. Pionk wasn't a big difference maker in the playoffs in the past few seasons, in my view.

I really don't see any upcoming F options that will come close to Ehlers' impact in a secondary scoring role in the next couple of seasons. Chibrikov and Lambert are the only likely options in the pipeline, and neither has shown potential to score close to a 25-30 goal and 70 point pace at the NHL level.

Realistically, the Jets have no other plausible ways to add a strong top-6 offensive threat for next season without trading valuable assets. Free agency is usually a non-starter. So unless Ehlers and the Jets have a bad playoff run, the cheapest way to return a lineup with a strong and deep offense for the next few years is signing Ehlers. The Jets have no real pressure on their cap now and no real stars that they have to save for in the pipeline, so they don't really have more useful ways to use their cap space in the coming years. Even this TDL Chevy left cap space on the table because he couldn't find a top F on the trade market that was affordable and willing to move to Wpg.

Chevy can sign both Pionk and Ehlers, so it's not likely either/or, anyway.

 

[DRW204]

If Ehlers is gone, and Connor's 2way engagement is here to stay, breaking up Connor and Scheifele could mitigate some of the departures of offensive creativity from Ehlers on the second line. Connor should be able to drive a line with his speed, puck carrying and chance creation. I don't really see those high tier attributes from any other Fwd other than Scheifele.

Based on this year, after CSV the 5v5 offense ain't that good other than Ehlers. Lowry can chip in time to time but I wouldn't consider him a reliable offensive threat. So spreading elite talent may be a way to cushion the departure. Just a thought.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I'm not so sure about the relative values in your assessment. The Jets have Miller and Salomonsson that they could probably slot into a 2/3 RD scenario without losing a bunch of value in the next few years (which is the Jets' ideal competitive window). I'm not sure why, but many seem to undervalue Miller. The Jets also have Schenn signed for next season, though I see him more as a fringe roster player. Pionk wasn't a big difference maker in the playoffs in the past few seasons, in my view.

I really don't see any upcoming F options that will come close to Ehlers' impact in a secondary scoring role in the next couple of seasons. Chibrikov and Lambert are the only likely options in the pipeline, and neither has shown potential to score close to a 25-30 goal and 70 point pace at the NHL level.

Realistically, the Jets have no other plausible ways to add a strong top-6 offensive threat for next season without trading valuable assets. Free agency is usually a non-starter. So unless Ehlers and the Jets have a bad playoff run, the cheapest way to return a lineup with a strong and deep offense for the next few years is signing Ehlers. The Jets have no real pressure on their cap now and no real stars that they have to save for in the pipeline, so they don't really have more useful ways to use their cap space in the coming years. Even this TDL Chevy left cap space on the table because he couldn't find a top F on the trade market that was affordable and willing to move to Wpg.

Chevy can sign both Pionk and Ehlers, so it's not likely either/or, anyway.

But neither lamb or chib need to hit 70 they need to hit 50. Perfetti needs to hit 70.

Also they need to save for Connor who will be paid like a player near the top, not just like a player near the top per minute.

 

[Whileee]

But neither lamb or chib need to hit 70 they need to hit 50. Perfetti needs to hit 70.

Also they need to save for Connor who will be paid like a player near the top, not just like a player near the top per minute.

They will have plenty of cap space for Connor. I just don't see that future cap space is going to be a major constraint. More likely that an internal unofficial salary structure will be the issue, with Scheifele and Hellebuyck setting a standard for everyone except maybe Connor.

Jets would need to overpay for Ehlers' later years, but just about every contender ends up in that situation with core players at some point. The issue is that their window is now and the next 2-3 years. How else can they use cap space to improve the roster in the next few seasons? No good UFAs that would likely sign with the Jets.

As for next year's roster, why not have Ehlers, Perfetti and another good young F in the middle 6? Can't really have too many talented, scoring forwards if you have the cap space. No need to take Ehlers from the mix.

 

[Jet]

I'm not so sure about the relative values in your assessment. The Jets have Miller and Salomonsson that they could probably slot into a 2/3 RD scenario without losing a bunch of value in the next few years (which is the Jets' ideal competitive window). I'm not sure why, but many seem to undervalue Miller. The Jets also have Schenn signed for next season, though I see him more as a fringe roster player. Pionk wasn't a big difference maker in the playoffs in the past few seasons, in my view.

I really don't see any upcoming F options that will come close to Ehlers' impact in a secondary scoring role in the next couple of seasons. Chibrikov and Lambert are the only likely options in the pipeline, and neither has shown potential to score close to a 25-30 goal and 70 point pace at the NHL level.

Realistically, the Jets have no other plausible ways to add a strong top-6 offensive threat for next season without trading valuable assets. Free agency is usually a non-starter. So unless Ehlers and the Jets have a bad playoff run, the cheapest way to return a lineup with a strong and deep offense for the next few years is signing Ehlers. The Jets have no real pressure on their cap now and no real stars that they have to save for in the pipeline, so they don't really have more useful ways to use their cap space in the coming years. Even this TDL Chevy left cap space on the table because he couldn't find a top F on the trade market that was affordable and willing to move to Wpg.

Chevy can sign both Pionk and Ehlers, so it's not likely either/or, anyway.

I disagree

Go Jets Go!!

 

[WolfHouse]

They will have plenty of cap space for Connor. I just don't see that future cap space is going to be a major constraint. More likely that an internal unofficial salary structure will be the issue, with Scheifele and Hellebuyck setting a standard for everyone except maybe Connor.

Jets would need to overpay for Ehlers' later years, but just about every contender ends up in that situation with core players at some point. The issue is that their window is now and the next 2-3 years. How else can they use cap space to improve the roster in the next few seasons? No good UFAs that would likely sign with the Jets.

As for next year's roster, why not have Ehlers, Perfetti and another good young F in the middle 6? Can't really have too many talented, scoring forwards if you have the cap space. No need to take Ehlers from the mix.

100%

 

[PhilJets]

For Ehlers:

Does any team need a top LW player next year and if so can they afford Ehlers if he commands 8M per year?

 

[KingJoffrey]

The biggest reason why Ehlers won't resign is his still poor usage. His TOI is way too low for player of his caliber.

There are at least ten teams who will promise him true 1st line minutes and more money. Only thing what Jets can show him is false promise of more playing time and 8th year.

 

[Gil Fisher]

The biggest reason why Ehlers won't resign is his still poor usage. His TOI is way too low for player of his caliber.

There are at least ten teams who will promise him true 1st line minutes and more money. Only thing what Jets can show him is false promise of more playing time and 8th year.

The Cap is going to $115m over a couple years; every team can afford him at $8m.

 

[Flair Hay]

For Ehlers:

Does any team need a top LW player next year and if so can they afford Ehlers if he commands 8M per year?

Detroit, Vancouver, Carolina, New Jersey, Montreal, Boston... I haven't micro-analyzed each cap situation, but there is plenty of room on half the league for him on their top line. And some are a good fit with the style the team plays.

Hopefully we are able to keep him.

 

[Whileee]

I still think the Jets will really miss Ehlers' offense in the middle 6 if he's gone next year. He generates for just about any line.

Last night the Jets were in a slog with Vancouver at 1-1. Then Ehlers pulls off a terrific play out of a routine cycle by spinning and firing the puck to the net-front before the Canucks were set to defend there. He does that sort of unexpected thing routinely, and it's why every line gets an offensive boost from him.

It won't be easy to replace his offense and teams will just clamp down on the Scheifele line. It'll cost the Jets more games than many seem to think.