Ehlers why Didnt We Trade Him

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Which line gets the other teams checking line? Scheif's or Ehlers' line?
they're both kind of equal in the spent against what is considered elite competition by WoodMoney's quality of competition stat. they have 3 tiers of opposition: elite, middle, gritensity. you can read more on how they came about it online, but it's criteria using pts/60, TOI/gp, Relative Corsi and a weighted Fencwick stat (essentially assign a value to shot attempts without counting the blocked ones) to classify Fwds across the NHL.

i think i prefer this rather than where a player might be on the depth chart b/c there are times non-elite or weaker players are higher up, and elite ones are down (ie: in EDM: Perry & Drai are both considered 2nd liners but obviously there's a huge difference in quality of player that's where defined groupings may help).

this is against "elite"
the difference b/w ehlers and CSV is negligible. CSV is that jumbled group just slightly above Ehlers.

1742662594018.png


and this is "middle"
1742662933015.png


so against Elite+Middle
CSV: is around 70% of the time
Names+Perfetti is: 64%
and Ehlers is 67% (b/w the two above groups).

and then obviously the "gritensity" fwds are the remaining group.
 
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they're both kind of equal in the spent against what is considered elite competition by WoodMoney's quality of competition stat. they have 3 tiers of opposition: elite, middle, gritensity. you can read more on how they came about it online, but it's criteria using pts/60, TOI/gp, Relative Corsi and a weighted Fencwick stat (essentially assign a value to shot attempts without counting the blocked ones) to classify players across the NHL.

i think i prefer this rather than where a player might be on the depth chart b/c there are times non-elite or weaker players are higher up, and elite ones are down (ie: in EDM: Perry & Drai are both considered 2nd liners but obviously there's a huge difference in quality of player that's why defined groupings help).

this is against "elite"
the difference b/w ehlers and CSV is negligible. CSV is that jumbled in just slightly above Ehlers.

View attachment 997328

and this is "middle"
View attachment 997332

so against Elite+Middle
CSV: is around 70% of the time
Names+Perfetti is: 64%
and Ehlers is 67% (b/w the two).
Thanks for posting i never would have thought it was that close myself.
 
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Scheifele's. I thought it is pretty well known that playing with better players has a more positive impact on raw production than playing checking lines has negative.

Like would we expect Connor to score more points playing 15 mins/game instead of 20 with Namestnikov and Perfetti than he does now?

Maybe that's not what you are saying but that's what I'm inferring from the question.
yeah agreed. connor has been on another level this year, so id expect his production to still be around PPG or more if roles reversed. However what does that say about vilardi for instance?
Ehlers is ahead in ppg. 0.97 vs 0.86, playing ~25% of the time w/ scheifele vs ~95% of the time. i think vilardi's last couple months regression has been a bit under the radar among fans.
 
Scheifele's. I thought it is pretty well known that playing with better players has a more positive impact on raw production than playing checking lines has negative.

Like would we expect Connor to score more points playing 15 mins/game instead of 20 with Namestnikov and Perfetti than he does now?

Maybe that's not what you are saying but that's what I'm inferring from the question.
I don't know - both Connor and Ehlers tend to create thier own chances a lot more than the average player.

I'd be curious to see if Connor having more room out there with less effective checking would counter the reduction of minutes. I'd also wonder if less minutes would give him more gas when he is on the ice.
 
I don't know - both Connor and Ehlers tend to create thier own chances a lot more than the average player.

I'd be curious to see if Connor having more room out there with less effective checking would counter the reduction of minutes. I'd also wonder if less minutes would give him more gas when he is on the ice.

Connor has played very well with Perfetti when they've been together over the past 3 plus years. For him I'd think it's more a question about playing with players that have a high level of hockey IQ and can read and react off him.
 
I keep hearing that who trades a guy when in first. That's why you have to move him before the season for a couple reasons for one most guys who don't sign rarely if ever sign in season. Two those who run it out almost always leave.

He's not a playoff style player has not excelled to date in the PO plus he wouldn't sign so I don't understand the why it was essential to keep him. Especially considering this cores lack of success.

What we don't know is how hard Chevy tried to trade him in the off-season, if at all, and what kind of offers he got.
 
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I genuinely believe losing Ehlers would be catastrophic for our offense.

If Ehlers finishes above PPG this season (he is very close) he will do it with the least average TOI since time on ice has been recorded. He is hyper-efficient in his minutes and I honestly think if you gave him 20 minutes a night, top line, top PP he'd be scoring right there with Connor.

We don't have anyone internal to replace him. Lambert replacing him next year is a pipe dream at this point, I would love to be wrong but he hasn't shown nearly enough to pencil into a top 6 line driving role.

Chevy has to find a way to get this done.
 
What we don't know is how hard Chevy tried to trade him in the off-season, if at all, and what kind of offers he got.
Very good point you make. Chevy is a very shrewd businessman, and we don’t know if, or what kind of offers he made to the Ehlers camp. We also don’t know if he tried to trade him, and what offers he got back ? Very interesting.

I would think he likely made them a very conservative offer, but they decided they’d shop the market.
 
The Jets won't pay Ehlers more than Schiefele in my mind. They'll pay Connor more because he's such a reliable scorer and stays healthy.

If that is their thinking then the only way they keep him is if he lays another egg in the PO. Even then it wouldn't be automatic.
 
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Internal pay limits don't work when the cap starts skyrocketing.

We struggle to bring in any kind of stars through FA or trade as people don't want to play here. If you can keep him you should be fine with overpaying by a bit to keep him. We can't replace him.
 
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I genuinely believe losing Ehlers would be catastrophic for our offense.

If Ehlers finishes above PPG this season (he is very close) he will do it with the least average TOI since time on ice has been recorded. He is hyper-efficient in his minutes and I honestly think if you gave him 20 minutes a night, top line, top PP he'd be scoring right there with Connor.

We don't have anyone internal to replace him. Lambert replacing him next year is a pipe dream at this point, I would love to be wrong but he hasn't shown nearly enough to pencil into a top 6 line driving role.

Chevy has to find a way to get this done.
All very true what you say, and I agree totally. I think the thing that’s holding the Jets up on this Ehlers contract, is his durability. He doesn’t play a full season that often, and has neck problems, and had a hernia operation.

No question, he is ultra talented as you say, and we really need him. I think because what I’ve mentioned is the Jets are very very nervous about this contract, and undecided, as are many of the posters here, who have commented on the Ehlers contract.

I’d love to see him get signed, but it’s a matter of how much ? and weighing the risk involved.
 
He’s fabulous now, but,signing him long term is a big risk. His body has a lot of mileage on it.

Most of this conversation is about AAV, not term. I would pay the man, but I wouldn't give him 8 years, or even 7. I think 6 years is the top term. Some team might go 7 in FA.
 
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I don't think we are the #1 team in the league or have the best powerplay in the league without Ehlers in the lineup.

I'd say he's pretty essential to our success this year
I don't think Ehlers is even top 5 in contributing to the success of the team. The entire 1st line, Samberg, Morrissey and Hellebuyck all mean more. I'd also put Lowry into consideration.
 
All very true what you say, and I agree totally. I think the thing that’s holding the Jets up on this Ehlers contract, is his durability. He doesn’t play a full season that often, and has neck problems, and had a hernia operation.

No question, he is ultra talented as you say, and we really need him. I think because what I’ve mentioned is the Jets are very very nervous about this contract, and undecided, as are many of the posters here, who have commented on the Ehlers contract.

I’d love to see him get signed, but it’s a matter of how much ? and weighing the risk involved.
If people think he is as good as Connor and he thinks that he is walking to an opportunity where he can prove it.
 
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I wonder if there is any guys on any other second line in league who their fans are arguing are just as valuable as their leading point getter/ scorer.
There isn't many teams that have their historically most efficient 5v5 scorer on their 2nd line and 2nd PP.

They have two comparable guys and only one top line LW spot if they want a balanced attack. This isn't difficult once you acknowledge the impact his ice time has on his points.
 
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Is he though? Do we have sufficient data of him playing in that role (minutes/ matchups) that says that?

You can say he looks like he could be a 1st line winger but he isn't until he is.

It will be interesting to see when he moves on to a team that gives him that opportunity if he will live up to it, or if his production and metrics will suffer. I'm not saying he can't but we've seen it happen before when a guy who wants more and moves to another team can't handle it for one reason or another.

Sometimes it's easier to produce when you aren't THE GUY - some players are just fantastic complimentary pieces.
depends on what amount you consider sufficient. he's barely played with scheifele this year. last season he played a good chunk of time with him (around 40%). the splits of each from last season below

at 5v5: Ehlers does get a bump in production rate, which is what you would expect since scheifele > namestnikov, monahan. but even w/o that 1st line time he is still pretty strong at point rate.

scheifele received a bigger all-around bump. he was a +14 for the season last year, which came all from x-scheifele-ehlers (x being either vilardi or connor primarily). he did spend time with connor + iafallo who the latter was probably miscasted as a top liner which hurts his stats though.

1742668735205.png


id argue that ehlers is the guy of his line over namestnikov and perfeti. i think a low chance either of those 2 hit 20 goals as top-6ers/PP players. and i wouldn't classify either as the primary puck handler, pt producer, offensive creator on that line... not that they're crap players but just not the catalysts offensively. the amount of team-carrying wingers are few and between i think. if signed elsewhere, i don't think he will be playing with a bunch of crap linemates and be tasked to take them to the promised land b/c that's just not common in the nhl.
 
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Very good point you make. Chevy is a very shrewd businessman, and we don’t know if, or what kind of offers he made to the Ehlers camp. We also don’t know if he tried to trade him, and what offers he got back ? Very interesting.

I would think he likely made them a very conservative offer, but they decided they’d shop the market.

Yes - and I think Chevy chose to wait and see what Ehlers does with this season before committing to a less conservative offer. Also likely waiting for some clarity on the cap going forward.

Obviously Chevy knows the risk in waiting to make a strong offer to a key player. He decided to accept that risk. Right or wrong.
 

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