Ehlers is a legit 1st line NHL winger who happens to play 2nd/3rd line minutes. It's unlikely you're going to get that kind of production out of any of the Jets "NHL ready" prospects, unless one of them takes a huge (and I mean HUGE) leap forward.
Ehlers why Didnt We Trade Him
- Thread starter tarozi
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I keep hearing that who trades a guy when in first. That's why you have to move him before the season for a couple reasons for one most guys who don't sign rarely if ever sign in season. Two those who run it out almost always leave.
He's not a playoff style player has not excelled to date in the PO plus he wouldn't sign so I don't understand the why it was essential to keep him. Especially considering this cores lack of success.
He's not a playoff style player has not excelled to date in the PO plus he wouldn't sign so I don't understand the why it was essential to keep him. Especially considering this cores lack of success.
I don't think we are the #1 team in the league or have the best powerplay in the league without Ehlers in the lineup.
I'd say he's pretty essential to our success this year
He's going to be essential to our success in the playoffs as well. We need regular season Ehlers to show up in the post season or there is a good chance we are a 1 and done this year. Having that 2nd line firing on all cylinders is going to be crucial and a good showing from him in the post season could very well drive his price up and if that is the case I'd be more than happy if the Jets paid it.
Vancouver and Carolina are two teams that I think will heavily pursue him in free agency and likely pay him far more than we will. So him playing well in the playoffs and us going deep are probably going to be big factors in the mutual agreement for him to stay. If he has a bad showing and we bow out early the Jets and Ehlers may be looking to move on.
Let's see he sure hasn't proven it nor has this team. The regular season is meaningless if you quickly exit the playoffs again. It's not like this team is a proven playoff performer it's been bad in playoffs and is unlikely to change with the same core. That's why I'd have moved him long ago as we need help elsewhere like center or right d or a more physical player.
Im sure I'll hear the other teams do it look at Marner. Toronto isn't on every no trade list we are and replacement level free agents won't come here.
Im sure I'll hear the other teams do it look at Marner. Toronto isn't on every no trade list we are and replacement level free agents won't come here.
Ehlers just can't help himself from trying those risky cross ice passes in the offensive zone that inevitably get picked off and lead to a scoring chance the other way. Now he's fast enough to catch the puck carrier, at times, to stop the attack but he created that trouble to begin with.
He must have a love/hate relationship with the coaches and management at times. Love the skill and creativity, hate the inopportune turnovers. He'll be the first person to say he has to get that out of his game in the playoffs but just can't help himself. Very curious to see what happens in the playoffs and offseason.
He must have a love/hate relationship with the coaches and management at times. Love the skill and creativity, hate the inopportune turnovers. He'll be the first person to say he has to get that out of his game in the playoffs but just can't help himself. Very curious to see what happens in the playoffs and offseason.
call it blind hope, but i think both ehlers and helle will show up big this PO run.... they'll essentially have to if the Jets want to go far.
Ehlers has about $16 million riding on how he performs in this years playoffs. Will the Jets offer him seven or nine?
That’s about the size of it. So Ehlers has a lot of $ $ riding on these up and coming playoffs. I guess this is what the Jets want to see, before dealing with him. If the Jets make a deep push in the playoffs, to the 3rd round, and Ehlers performs great, then they’ll offer him top dollar,( $9mil ?) but if he disappears, they’ll offer him the lower amount, at around $ 7 mil. Good post. This is what it amounts too.
Is he though? Do we have sufficient data of him playing in that role (minutes/ matchups) that says that?
You can say he looks like he could be a 1st line winger but he isn't until he is.
It will be interesting to see when he moves on to a team that gives him that opportunity if he will live up to it, or if his production and metrics will suffer. I'm not saying he can't but we've seen it happen before when a guy who wants more and moves to another team can't handle it for one reason or another.
Sometimes it's easier to produce when you aren't THE GUY - some players are just fantastic complimentary pieces.
The Jets won't pay Ehlers more than Schiefele in my mind. They'll pay Connor more because he's such a reliable scorer and stays healthy.
- Mar 10, 2010
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- 30,960
Good time for Connor to be having a career season heading into the last year of his contract just as the cap projections are going through the roof. I think he could help his case even more if the first line lead us on a deep run in the playoffs but either way he is getting paid.
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I agree which is why I feel he's got one foot out the door. Someone will pay him 9 to 9.5 on the market whereas we likely cap him at 8.25
He’s fabulous now, but,signing him long term is a big risk. His body has a lot of mileage on it.
Yeah i feel like his neck injury is probably going to become a big problem for him unfortunately.
Its more difficult to produce when you aren't out there as often than it is playing with better players against tougher competition.
Ehlers playing at a 90 point pace when he plays top line mins with a 1C when he is healthy is about the safest bet you can make.
Any normal drop off in efficiency playing bigger mins would be minor compared to playing 20 mins instead of 14, and playing with a 1C instead of a solid glue guy like Namestnikov.
What's best for the Jets lineup, injury history, playoff performances and personal dynamics is one thing... this projection of his production in a true top line role to me is basically a sure thing based of Ehlers career.
When no NHL player in the past 20 years has produced a point per game season in the amount of ice time he gets that is a pretty clear sign.
Which line gets the other teams checking line? Scheif's or Ehlers' line?
Scheifele's. I thought it is pretty well known that playing with better players has a more positive impact on raw production than playing checking lines has negative.
Like would we expect Connor to score more points playing 15 mins/game instead of 20 with Namestnikov and Perfetti than he does now?
Maybe that's not what you are saying but that's what I'm inferring from the question.
You make some real good points, and I fully agree with them. I have to ask myself, if I was the owner, would I want to pony up $ 9 mil per year, over 6 or 7 years, considering his injury history, and that he rarely plays a full hockey season. It is a huge risk, if you put yourself in the owners shoes.
As much as I love Ehlers, and watching him play, I’m not sure I’d take the gamble on him ?? I’d surely go $ 7 on him, but above that, I’m not sure ? It’s risky.
What I was meaning by that post was how well would he do against the other team's top checkers. I'm guessing he rarely sees the other team's top checking line.
These playoffs will tell me whether he deserves a big fat contract or not.
Even the most optimistic view of Ehlers, as the above certainly is, we’re still talking about “pace”.
Here’s three players 5v5 production and minutes over the last few years. Which one do you want to give 9M to?
Player A: 2387 minutes, 2.51 p/60
Player B: 1600 minutes, 2.48 p/60
Player C: 2691 minutes, 2.41 p/60
Absolutely it is only pace and not actual production. I don't want to hide his flaws, I tried to mention them all in my original post.
I just want to make it extremely clear the calibre of player we have because his raw point totals are not reflective of his talent level league wide.
He has missed 10 games this season and last which is a lot more acceptable. It will always be a consideration for him until it's not, I see that part.
Judging off his career stats with Scheifele vs without, he would do even better on top line facing tough competition.
If you mean how would he do with Perfetti and Namestnikov vs top checkling lines? Then yeah there would be a drop off. My guess is 10-15%?
Re - this Ehlers contract - I do like the way Joe Salic in Colorado handled the Rattenan situation. He could see the player wanted about $ 12 mil, and thought that was way too much for that player.
He then traded him to the Canes, and got Necras I believe, who has been very solid for Colorado.
At least in this situation, the Avs got a decent player in return, rather than getting nothing back for him if he became a UFA.
The Jets are really gambling in my opinion with Ehlers, and we could get nothing back for him. If you decided you weren’t going to pay him, you should have traded him mid season like the Avs did with Rattenan.
Looks like the Jets are using Ehlers as a pure rental, but I’m not sure this was the right way to go here ?
He then traded him to the Canes, and got Necras I believe, who has been very solid for Colorado.
At least in this situation, the Avs got a decent player in return, rather than getting nothing back for him if he became a UFA.
The Jets are really gambling in my opinion with Ehlers, and we could get nothing back for him. If you decided you weren’t going to pay him, you should have traded him mid season like the Avs did with Rattenan.
Looks like the Jets are using Ehlers as a pure rental, but I’m not sure this was the right way to go here ?
