Ehlers why Didnt We Trade Him

[DRW204]

A generic 60 point player who is capable of driving the play, or a 40 point player who is a good complimentary piece, but, isn't driving the play, but, can Pk.
Ehlers usually creates his own goals. Iafallo's last goal was from being at the net when the focus was on Connor. We also have Nino and Apple who while not as good as Iafallo can do what he does. The only players who can do what Ehlers does is Connor and Perfetti.

iafallo is not a 40 pt player on this team. when the team is healthy he customarily is a 4th liner. he's a solid player dont get me wrong. he's an UDFA and has scored above 0.5 ppg 3x in 8 years - if the Jets drafting is all that it's made out to be he should be replaceable easier.

regardless, the Jets have the 5th most cap space in the league. they could probably fit both. now one of tanev or appleton has to go. but i think chibirkov can fill that spot.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Production-wise (over their careers), 2 Iafallos > 1 Ehlers... and Ehlers has had better linemates and usage than Iafallo for the vast majority of their careers

How about this... would you rather have a generic 60 point winger, or two generic 40 point wingers?

I sense there could be some emotional attachment to Ehlers, which would be completely normal and understanding

You can't compare 2 - 1 like that. It is 1 60 pt winger + 1 other winger vs 2 40 pt wingers. I'll say 'other winger' is a 30 pt winger, so I still take Ehlers, I mean '60 pt winger'.

Your OP didn't mention we were getting both at age 20 and starting from scratch. I'm assuming 1 now Ehlers vs 2 now Iafallo's.

I don't think Ehlers is a generic 60 pt winger. I think his influence on Ws & Ls is greater than simply his point count. His skating is intimidating. He creates space for others. And then there are the never ending, much debated, usage issues.

Take this hypothetical a step further. 1 team has 12 Iafallos. The other has 6 Ehlers and 6 Barrons. Who wins?

 

[Gm0ney]

Two Andrew Copps don't out-produce one Mark Schiefele by 10% historically though. How about a Brayden Schenn and Kotkaniemi?

Over the last 5 years Scheifele has scored 1.00 points/game and Copp has put up 0.55 points/game...so 2 Copps do outproduce Scheifele by 10%.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

How do you define and measure "driving play"? Zone exits/entries?

I'm by no means anti-Ehlers and would love to see him retire as a Jet. My point is that he is replaceable, or at least his production is.

Chevy's biggest challenge is to increase the talent ceiling on the forward group. Since that's something that's largely out of his control, he's done the next best thing - increased the talent floor. If he could find two really good middle six forwards somehow, I think that the group as a whole wouldn't take as much of a step back as people think they would if Nik walks

Maybe not "as much" but still some. That isn't much different than coming up with a better 2C (doesn't have to be an all-star 2C) and shifting wingers around.

If your point is that the Jets can still be successful without Nik then I agree, they can. But some other things need to work out. It doesn't have to be pie in the sky complete replacement for all of Nik's value. It can be reshaping the team with the addition of some other top 6 player.

 

[WolfHouse]

If we do need to move on from ehlers it would be interesting to see how the current jets are ranked for zone entries... maybe i am overestimating the ehlers effect

I am still pretty hesitant to move on from ehlers on pp1 in the first season that our powerplay has actually been a strength in years...

 

[10Ducky10]

Perfetti Volare Lambo
...if Ehlers walks.

 

[DRW204]

If we do need to move on from ehlers it would be interesting to see how the current jets are ranked for zone entries... maybe i am overestimating the ehlers effect

I am still pretty hesitant to move on from ehlers on pp1 in the first season that our powerplay has actually been a strength in years...

really i see there's a big gap b/w the Jets big-4 on offense (CSV, Ehlers) and the rest.

CSV play together one line, so it's not like the talent is spread out, & then it's Ehlers....and then the rest. Perfetti has been good the last couple months, but really has lacked consistency the past 2 seasons. obviously there's some growth for improvement. essentially, the Jets would need some one to step up, or trade or UFA (both unlikely b/c trade market is thin for the Jets, and UFA is pretty thin iirc).

regardless, i think the Jets re-sign Ehlers. If they had some semblance that he was not extending, i really do think they would have traded him last off-season. Yes they have had a few key players depart in UFA, none really to the caliber of ehlers, or who had replacements internally (ie: Dillon->Samberg, Frolik->Ehlers).

In general, I think it's rare 1 player being gone will completely destroy a team. the team will go and find replacement (Stamkos->Guentzel, Stephenson->Hertl), maybe galvanize the team (Tavares gone and NYI making ECFs, TBL missing Kucherov for an entire season). so i don't think the team will go in shambles without ehlers. really as long as they have Helle this team's floor will be high.

 

[Buffdog]

Over the last 5 years Scheifele has scored 1.00 points/game and Copp has put up 0.55 points/game...so 2 Copps do outproduce Scheifele by 10%.

Re-check your math on Copp over the past 2 years. 56 points in 135 games

Edit: you said 5 years, sorry

Any reason you picked 5 years when I used career stats for Iafallo and Ehlers? You'd NEVER cherrypick data to make your point, right?

 

[Hunter368]

Sure, every spot gets filled. There is more than that to replacing though.

Sure, that goes without saying depending on who you’re replacing.

 

[Flair Hay]

How do you define and measure "driving play"? Zone exits/entries?

I'm by no means anti-Ehlers and would love to see him retire as a Jet. My point is that he is replaceable, or at least his production is.

Chevy's biggest challenge is to increase the talent ceiling on the forward group. Since that's something that's largely out of his control, he's done the next best thing - increased the talent floor. If he could find two really good middle six forwards somehow, I think that the group as a whole wouldn't take as much of a step back as people think they would if Nik walks

I think relative corsi is not perfect but if you are looking for an all encompassing metric that describes "drives pkay" that probably gets you most of the way there

 

[Gm0ney]

Re-check your math on Copp over the past 2 years. 56 points in 135 games

Edit: you said 5 years, sorry

Any reason you picked 5 years when I used career stats for Iafallo and Ehlers? You'd NEVER cherrypick data to make your point, right?

Just a coincidence. When you go to the NHL stats page and click the seasons dropdown, 5 years back is the default without scrolling. So I picked 5 years, looked at Scheifele's points and points/game and then looked back...and there was Copp, a guy we all know.

 

[voyageur]

I think relative corsi is not perfect but if you are looking for an all encompassing metric that describes "drives pkay" that probably gets you most of the way there

I think zone time is the defining metric of this team. And it's too bad those stats aren't publicly available. I don't know if rush chances are publicly tracked either, but defending them is a key aspect of this team. And the first goal last night came in transition, creating an odd man rush, from a good read by the defense.

 

[Flair Hay]

I think zone time is the defining metric of this team. And it's too bad those stats aren't publicly available. I don't know if rush chances are publicly tracked either, but defending them is a key aspect of this team. And the first goal last night came in transition, creating an odd man rush, from a good read by the defense.

All true, I was talking about players on an individual level and how you measure who drives play. These are all really important aspects of what makes us a good team

 

[Gm0ney]

I think zone time is the defining metric of this team. And it's too bad those stats aren't publicly available. I don't know if rush chances are publicly tracked either, but defending them is a key aspect of this team. And the first goal last night came in transition, creating an odd man rush, from a good read by the defense.

NHL Edge has even-strength zone time. Here's the data for the Jets:

They don't let you drill down into it at all (look at it by situation or by date), but according to the tracking, the Jets are not especially good at controlling the play in the offensive zone.

NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking Statistics - Teams

NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking Statistics for teams including skating speed, skating distance, shot speed, shot location, and zone time.

edge.nhl.com

This aligns with the Jets CF% - often used as a zone time proxy before Edge. Ranked 14th, top end of the middle of the pack, nothing special.

Natural Stat Trick has their post-4Nations CF% at ES at 51.95% - ranked 8th, so low end of pretty good (pre-4Nations it was 18th at 49.06%). So if you're willing to let Corsi into your heart and accept it as your personal savior a valid proxy for offensive zone time, then they've been better lately.

But I think what the Jets are mainly doing well is in converting their offensive zone time into dangerous chances - and converting a lot of those dangerous chances into goals.

 

[WolfHouse]

NHL Edge has even-strength zone time. Here's the data for the Jets:

View attachment 1011586

They don't let you drill down into it at all (look at it by situation or by date), but according to the tracking, the Jets are not especially good at controlling the play in the offensive zone.

NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking Statistics - Teams

NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking Statistics for teams including skating speed, skating distance, shot speed, shot location, and zone time.

edge.nhl.com

This aligns with the Jets CF% - often used as a zone time proxy before Edge. Ranked 14th, top end of the middle of the pack, nothing special.

Natural Stat Trick has their post-4Nations CF% at ES at 51.95% - ranked 8th, so low end of pretty good (pre-4Nations it was 18th at 49.06%). So if you're willing to let Corsi into your heart and accept it as your personal savior a valid proxy for offensive zone time, then they've been better lately.

But I think what the Jets are mainly doing well is in converting their offensive zone time into dangerous chances - and converting a lot of those dangerous chances into goals.

So basically a dominant team that probably should shoot more...

 

[Gm0ney]

So basically a dominant team that probably should shoot more...

I don't know about that. Shot spamming from everywhere for its own sake might not be very helpful. They're good at creating quality not necessarily quantity.