Proposal: EDM - SEA Goalie Swap+

[TFHockey]

Just think Seattle would get more than players like Lagesson and Ryan if they trade Gio and Appleton separately. If we break down the OP:

Grubauer/Soucy for Koski/Keith favours the Oilers
Gio @ 50% for Lagesson favours the Oilers
Appleton for Ryan favours the Oilers

Does a mid to late first and a 3rd cover the difference, I don't think so.

A 1st and a 2nd. I'd add a B prospect like Lavoie if it evened things out.

 

[Empoleon8771]

This deal just looks like the Oilers trading bad players for better players and not really paying much to do it. Soucy and Appleton have legit value, their combined value is at minimum the 1st and 2nd the Oilers are throwing in and probably more. Then the rest is Koskinen, Keith, Laegesson and Ryan for Grubauer and Giordano at 50%, which is awful for Seattle.

 

[TFHockey]

This deal just looks like the Oilers trading bad players for better players and not really paying much to do it. Soucy and Appleton have legit value, their combined value is at minimum the 1st and 2nd the Oilers are throwing in and probably more. Then the rest is Koskinen, Keith, Laegesson and Ryan for Grubauer and Giordano at 50%, which is awful for Seattle.

I legit don't know what Grubauer's worth. You say this is terrible for Seattle, so I assume you see him as a valuable asset. His numbers and contract ($5.9 Million AAV until 2027) might argue otherwise. But is he?
Grubauer could've been a mediocre goaltender behind a great Avs team.
Or he could be a good goalie behind a terrible Seattle team.

He was great last year. He has been abysmal this year. Worse than Koskinen and he is signed for five years longer at a higher number. I am betting Grubauer turns it around. If he doesn't this a great trade for Seattle.

I don't know. There is a risk the Oilers are taking here and I think that is reflected in the offer.

 

[ManofSteel55]

As a Kraken fan, I would be all for this. I mean it COULD be premature to move Grubauer since he's only played a little over 20 games on an expansion team, but that contract is VERY long if he doesn't rebound. Koskinen's expiring contract is attractive as hell. Your idea feels too good for Seattle, but maybe Grubauer would fit in better with the system Edmonton plays (is that possible? haha)

Soucy and Gio should be able to get more from another team than being involved in a deal with Edmonton, so I agree on that.

Well Seattle could always retain a little on Grubauer to make it more even.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Just think Seattle would get more than players like Lagesson and Ryan if they trade Gio and Appleton separately. If we break down the OP:

Grubauer/Soucy for Koski/Keith favours the Oilers
Gio @ 50% for Lagesson favours the Oilers
Appleton for Ryan favours the Oilers

Does a mid to late first and a 3rd cover the difference, I don't think so.

In all fairness, its quite possible that the 1st is the most valuable piece in this deal. Soucy is the only individual part that might have the value of a first. I do think it is lopsided here, but its not all amazing pieces going one way and garbage going the other either. The big part of the deal is going to be a debate here (Grubauer).

 

[bucks_oil]

I don't think it's too big of an issue if you can pay for it. I have a friend that has been heading down to Seattle from Vancouver every weekend for the last month.

The issue is in the other direction. From Canada to US, all that you need is a Rapid Test, which normally you can find for $25 in a drugstore. Your friend is probably coming back within 72 hours, so he wouldn't need any test.

But going from US to Canada requires a PCR test, which (if you are lucky) is free (otherwise ~$200), but difficult to schedule within 72 hours of travel AND get your results back before travel.

 

[Sniped90]

I won't pretend to know what's going on in Seattle, but I can't imagine that trading Appleton and Soucy in a futures deal is high on their list of priorities. I also think Francis would want more coming back to take on all of those pieces. Leave out the d-men, that won't happen in this type of deal. Let's sort it out based on this:

To Edmonton - Philip Grubauer (5.9M) and Mason Appleton (900K)

To Seattle - Mikko Koskinen (4.5M - expiring), Kailer Yamamoto (1.175M), Kyle Turris (1.650M), 2nd round pick, mid round pick

The 2nd round pick is for Grubauer and taking on Koskinen, Appleton and Yamamoto are nearly a wash, and Turris needs to be included for the cap to work, so we're tossing in a mid round pick to compensate for that.

I think Giordano and Soucy are guys that Seattle can move separately if they want to for decent returns. I would old onto Soucy long term if was them, but Gio can possibly even bring back a first. I could see Calgary bringing him back for a playoff run.

I think we would need to focus on improving our defense depth through a different trade. I just don't see how it can happen in this one.

Think seattle could add lauzon?

 

[McJedi]

Phillip Grubauer 30, G ($5.9 Million AAV until 2027, NTC and then M-NTC) 3.30 GAA .882 sv% this year
Mark Giordano 38, LHD @ 50% ($3.375 Million AAV last year then UFA)
Carson Soucy 27, LHD ($2.75 Million AAV for this year and next, then UFA)
Mason Appleton 25, C ($900,000 AAV last year and then RFA)

Total $$$ coming in: $12.925 Million



Mikko Koskinen 33 G ($4.5 Million AAV last year then UFA) 3.19 GAA .900 sv% this year
Duncan Keith 38 LHD ($5.538 Million AAV this year and next, then UFA)
William Lagesson 25 LHD ($725,000 AAV this year then RFA)
Derek Ryan 35 C ($1.25 Million AAV this year and next, then UFA)

Oilers 2022 1st, 2023 2nd

Total coming in $12.013 Million + retention of $3.375 Million for the remainder of this year only.

I think the Oilers get an upgrade at every position with Grubauer being the biggest gamble, a long term contract with a fair amount of cap tied up if he does not work out. Edmonton remakes the left side this year and has a bit more cap room afterwards. This allows them to make a charge at the playoffs this year.

Seattle clears a long term contract in Grubauer out and has a ton of cap room next year plus a 1st and a 2nd. Fair?

This is awful for Seattle. They can easily get a first for Giordano. They can probably get a second for Appleton. Can get a decent pick for Soucy. They are all worth something if traded alone. Why would Seattle want the terrible Keith contract that runs another year? Why Koskinen? Why Ryan? The answer is they don’t.

oil would need to add at least a Holloway to this to make it make any sense for Seattle. And that’s still likely not enough.

otherwise, Seattle does their own deals piece by piece. And gets all those picks and more plus doesn’t need to eat the Keith contract.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Think seattle could add lauzon?

I don't think we have much need for him. We already have a pile of tweener #6/7 LD.

 

[ManofSteel55]

This is awful for Seattle. They can easily get a first for Giordano. They can probably get a second for Appleton. Can get a decent pick for Soucy. They are all worth something if traded alone. Why would Seattle want the terrible Keith contract that runs another year? Why Koskinen? Why Ryan? The answer is they don’t.

oil would need to add. Holloway to this to make it make any sense for Seattle.

It's not a given that Gio goes for a 1st, so let's not say Seattle will easily get a 1st for him.

Someone (a Kraken fan) suggested that the Koskinen deal looks better to them than the Grubauer deal because it is expiring. Try to look deeper here.

 

[ElPrimeTime]

In all fairness, its quite possible that the 1st is the most valuable piece in this deal. Soucy is the only individual part that might have the value of a first. I do think it is lopsided here, but its not all amazing pieces going one way and garbage going the other either. The big part of the deal is going to be a debate here (Grubauer).

Yeah I don't think a top prospect is needed to even it out. But a B prospect might be enough. Probably have to see what Kraken fans say about it.

 

[McJedi]

It's not a given that Gio goes for a 1st, so let's not say Seattle will easily get a 1st for him.

Someone (a Kraken fan) suggested that the Koskinen deal looks better to them than the Grubauer deal because it is expiring. Try to look deeper here.

If chariot is expected to net a first. Guess what. So will Giordano.

i think Grubs has a contract that doesn’t look to be positive value. Nor does Koskinen. But Grubs is coming off two stellar seasons. He could turn it around.

when was Koskinen ever up for a major award.

you need to look deeper and take off those glasses. This deal is awful for Seattle.

 

[CaptainCrunch67]

Seattle would hard pass, they're not here to solve Edmonton's issues, and guys like Gio will probably get way more positive pieces for Seattle at the deadline.

 

[ManofSteel55]

If chariot is expected to net a first. Guess what. So will Giordano.

i think Grubs has a contract that doesn’t look to be positive value. Nor does Koskinen. But Grubs is coming off two stellar seasons. He could turn it around.

when was Koskinen ever up for a major award.

you need to look deeper and take off those glasses. This deal is awful for Seattle.

I'm still not sold on Chairot getting a 1st. I don't think either are guaranteed to bring back 1sts.

Koskinen's contract expires at the end of the year. He doesn't really have any value at this point. He just kind of exists. Nobody will go out of their way to trade for him, but if they need to take Koskinen's expiring deal to move their mistake of a contract and get a 1st while doing it, they'll take him, play him out the rest of the season, and let him walk away as a free agent. What we don't know is if Seattle is interested in trying to get out of this big, long contract by trading it for what they can, or if they think he will adjust and be a capable piece moving forward. That's the real key, as I don't see many teams lining up to take Grubauer.

I never said the deal wasn't bad. I admitted it as much many times in this thread. Where we disagree is that Giordano will get a first, Soucy will get a 1st (if Gio does, Soucy will), Appleton gets a 2nd for sure, etc.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Not enough going back to seattle. Other GMs will beat that just trading for those other pieces separately.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

I'm still not sold on Chairot getting a 1st. I don't think either are guaranteed to bring back 1sts.

Koskinen's contract expires at the end of the year. He doesn't really have any value at this point. He just kind of exists. Nobody will go out of their way to trade for him, but if they need to take Koskinen's expiring deal to move their mistake of a contract and get a 1st while doing it, they'll take him, play him out the rest of the season, and let him walk away as a free agent. What we don't know is if Seattle is interested in trying to get out of this big, long contract by trading it for what they can, or if they think he will adjust and be a capable piece moving forward. That's the real key, as I don't see many teams lining up to take Grubauer.

I never said the deal wasn't bad. I admitted it as much many times in this thread. Where we disagree is that Giordano will get a first, Soucy will get a 1st (if Gio does, Soucy will), Appleton gets a 2nd for sure, etc.

Don't forget, the OP deal has Giordano at a 50% retention too. If Savard gets a first, I don't see how Giordano gets less as a rental.

Appleton should get a 2nd for sure, those picks aren't that valuable.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

I think just make this deal simpler. Koskinen Plus Ryan for Grubs straight up and hope to god that Grubs bounces back. He's at least an adequate starter behind a garbage coach right now.

 

[ManofSteel55]

I think just make this deal simpler. Koskinen Plus Ryan for Grubs straight up and hope to god that Grubs bounces back. He's at least an adequate starter behind a garbage coach right now.

This makes sense. It's a big gamble for both teams. If he rebounds, Seattle looks dumb for trading him, if he doesn't, the Oilers may as well have extended Koskinen for 4 more years.

 

[Stuzchuk]

I don't see anyone in that list warranting a top prospect but I could be convinced to offer another piece to make it fairer. Like a B prospect?

no, more like 6 picks mixed of 2nd & 3rd but the point is moot because Appleton & Soucy are part of the immediate core of this team

 

[ManofSteel55]

Don't forget, the OP deal has Giordano at a 50% retention too. If Savard gets a first, I don't see how Giordano gets less as a rental.

Appleton should get a 2nd for sure, those picks aren't that valuable.

People have to let go of the Savard comparison. It's a different market this year. Savard was basically the only top 4 defenseman rental available after Nashville decided not to move Ekholm. Savard had filled a top pair role and is a versatile guy, having played both offensive and defensive roles. The next best defenseman traded around the deadline last year was who. Mike Reilly (3rd)? Brandon Montour (3rd?) Dmitri Kulikov (4th)? Savard went for a king's ransom because he was literally the only proven top 4 defenseman out there last year. Not like this year, where guys like Chairot and Giordano could be joined on the trade board by guys like Letang, Klingberg, Leddy, Ristolainen, Stralman, Lindholm, Manson, Murphy and veteran depth guys like DeKeyser, de Haan, Braun. There are far more defensemen out there this year and that could hurt the top end of the market for guys like Giordano.

 

[McJedi]

I'm still not sold on Chairot getting a 1st. I don't think either are guaranteed to bring back 1sts.

Koskinen's contract expires at the end of the year. He doesn't really have any value at this point. He just kind of exists. Nobody will go out of their way to trade for him, but if they need to take Koskinen's expiring deal to move their mistake of a contract and get a 1st while doing it, they'll take him, play him out the rest of the season, and let him walk away as a free agent. What we don't know is if Seattle is interested in trying to get out of this big, long contract by trading it for what they can, or if they think he will adjust and be a capable piece moving forward. That's the real key, as I don't see many teams lining up to take Grubauer.

I never said the deal wasn't bad. I admitted it as much many times in this thread. Where we disagree is that Giordano will get a first, Soucy will get a 1st (if Gio does, Soucy will), Appleton gets a 2nd for sure, etc.

And none of the players Edmonton sends out will fetch anything. They are all no or negative value contacts.

It’s atrocious for Seattle. Doesn’t matter how you look at it. It’s grossly one sided. A Habs like proposal.

Seattle isn’t going to trade Grubs three months into a six year deal. They are an expansion franchise. None of these guys know how to play together. They’ll take a few years to build chemistry and structure.

Edmonton woild need to add your best prospect and another high pick to make this make any sense for Seattle.

 

[McVespa99]

I think the biggest issue is how to value Grubauer. He's been awful in Seattle, but I don't think GM's are in the business of selling guys at an all time low value after only a few months on the team. I can see why other GM's wouldn't want to pay much for him, but its probably not worth it for Francis to just give him away at his lowest value either.

Unless Francis wants to get rid of the long term contract now that he has seen more of him....

 

[ManofSteel55]

And none of the players Edmonton sends out will fetch anything. They are all no or negative value contacts.

It’s atrocious for Seattle. Doesn’t matter how you look at it. It’s grossly one sided. A Habs like proposal.

Seattle isn’t going to trade Grubs three months into a six year deal. They are an expansion franchise. None of these guys know how to play together. They’ll take a few years to build chemistry and structure.

Edmonton woild need to add your best prospect and another high pick to make this make any sense for Seattle.

Dude, I think you're picking a fight where there isn't one. Most Oiler fans have said as much, without being aggressive about it.

In terms of value of the parts, the value of the pieces in this deal is Soucy, huge gap, Oilers 1st/Giordano (not sold he gets a 1st but he will get a 2nd I believe), Keith, another huge gap, Appleton, 3rd round pick, and then Ryan, Koskinen and Grubauer all hold no value (potentially negative value) with their current play and contracts. If there is one contract in the deal that is a huge gamble its Grubauer's, its the only one that could be a huge anchor to an organization long term.

 

[Sniped90]

I don't think we have much need for him. We already have a pile of tweener #6/7 LD.

oilers need grit and lauzon is damn near the top in hits i think oilers definitly need him and get rid of barrie somewhere

 

[McJedi]

Dude, I think you're picking a fight where there isn't one. Most Oiler fans have said as much, without being aggressive about it.

In terms of value of the parts, the value of the pieces in this deal is Soucy, huge gap, Oilers 1st/Giordano (not sold he gets a 1st but he will get a 2nd I believe), Keith, another huge gap, Appleton, 3rd round pick, and then Ryan, Koskinen and Grubauer all hold no value (potentially negative value) with their current play and contracts. If there is one contract in the deal that is a huge gamble its Grubauer's, its the only one that could be a huge anchor to an organization long term.

Seattle will take a few years to find out how Grubs fits their organization. I’m 99.99% sure their GM isn’t looking to take a big loss on a trade today just to shed his deal. Seattle isn’t in cap trouble. Francis didn’t make a bunch of dumb picks with long term deals so Seattle has a ton of cap space and flexibility to wait out Grubs slow start.

the OPs proposal is way off the mark.