Confirmed Signing with Link: [EDM] F Leon Draisaitl signs extension with the Oilers (8 years, $14M AAV; begins 2025-26)

[McDNicks17]

Draisaitl jumped from 11.33% of the cap to 15.91%. That's a 4.58% increase. McDavid is currently at 15.72%. An equivalent increase to Draisaitl's jump would put him at 20.30%. I believe a team can only go as high as 20%. If the cap increases to $92-93m that translates to $18.4-$18.6m for McDavid. How much of a discount is McDavid expected to give?

Draisaitl's current contract is a lot lower than market value than McDavid's.

It wouldn't be as simple as applying the same %.

 

[Rubi]

What cap number did you use for 2025 to get this percentage jump? I honestly didn't know the 2025 cap had been released?

In 2024, today, he makes 8.5.

In 2025, he gets his new salary. So what is the cap in 2025?

I got it off of Puckpedia

 

[Rubi]

Draisaitl's current contract is a lot lower than market value than McDavid's.

It wouldn't be as simple as applying the same %.

I can easily see a McDavid salary bump to at least 18% of cap from his current 15.72%. 18% of a $97-98m 2026-27 cap would average out to $17.5m. I think those who expect him to sign for $16m are going to be disappointed.

 

[Rubi]

I see the 2026 Oilers will suck theme is still going.lol

Are there any other teams that we know so much about 2 seasons from now?

No other team's fanbase has complained as much and so vociferously about being cap strapped and management mismanagement, for the last few years. So it's not at all unusual that other fans are acutely aware of Edmonton's cap situation and difficulties.

 

[Czechboy]

I got it off of Puckpedia

View attachment 905644

So what is the cap in 2025/26?

That 15.91 is based on the 2024 cap, no? Or has a 2025 cap been announced? Hell, I'll google it...

So there isn't one. How can anyone calculate a percentage of an unknown number?

That 15.9 is based on 2024 88 million cap hit but he's not making 14 million this season.

 

[Czechboy]

management mismanagement,

Nice term! I always typed Oilers (mis) management.lol

For sure... we were absolute shit for a long time with buyouts, shitty players, incomplete rosters and a lousy cap situation.

It has significantly improved (along with our on ice results) in the last few years. Last year was pretty good to be honest. No one loves the Nurse contract but people seem to forget that Bouch was making less than 4 mill last year. 4 million for 82 points in regular season and 32 more in playoffs is one of the best deals in the NHL. The rest of the D core was paid around fair value. Same with forwards.. Drai at 8.5 was one of the best contracts in the NHL. So was McD at 12.5. There may have been a few forwards slightly overpaid but nothing insane to my eye. Hyman was a steal at 5.5


Campbell was the only major flaw last season. Now he's in the buyout bin with Neal (Flames ended up winning that) for about 3 mill wasted this season. I don't think it's that bad at all and we may get a Vegas LTIR type situation with Kane too.

 

[Dan Kelly]

Easy path, could barely beat a rookie goalie and even then, had the luck of a top 6 winger being out and still facing a 3rd string rookie in net. Very easy path but still struggled.

This nonsense about Silovs being a "3rd string goalie" like he was nothing and very easy to beat in order to support a weak argument is just plain silly ! Every team in the league wishes they could find another Silovs!! Yes they were missing a couple of key players but give Silovs some credit for standing on his head and almost stealing the series for the Canucks! Just admit you hate the Oilers and move on !!

 

[Yuke]

So definitely not a discount by Draisatl. The Oilers paid more to keep him.

Paid market value

 

[Rubi]

So what is the cap in 2025/26?

That 15.91 is based on the 2024 cap, no? Or has a 2025 cap been announced? Hell, I'll google it...

View attachment 905648

So there isn't one. How can anyone calculate a percentage of an unknown number?

That 15.9 is based on 2024 88 million cap hit but he's not making 14 million this season.

People are making an educated guestimate of $92-93m cap which is a $4-5m increase over the set $88m cap for the 2024-25 season. That guess sounds reasonable to me. Businesses use projections, which are basically educated guesses, all the time when calculating budgets. I don't see why NHL teams and fans should be any different.
I used the same $4-5m increase for the 2026-27 cap. Could be less. Could be more... but I wouldn't be surprised if it's in the ball park barring some kind of catastrophe/pandemic.

Edit: You're right. Puckpedia used 2024-25 $88m cap when calculating the 15.9 cap% for Draisaitl. I don't think that's right. They should be using, right now, an estimated cap of $92-93m, which would drop his % to 15.2-15.05. They should put an asterisk beside the number since it would be a guesstimate.

 

[Rubi]

we may get a Vegas LTIR type situation with Kane too.

I always wondered how Oilers fans figure they can stretch Kane's IR into a season long LTIR. From what I've heard he can go under the knife and be ready to play again in 3-1/2 months. I don't see the Oilers getting any cap relief until sometime in January if they juggle the surgery date for the best cap outcome?

 

[Rubi]

This nonsense about Silovs being a "3rd string goalie" like he was nothing and very easy to beat in order to support a weak argument is just plain silly ! Every team in the league wishes they could find another Silovs!! Yes they were missing a couple of key players but give Silovs some credit for standing on his head and almost stealing the series for the Canucks! Just admit you hate the Oilers and move on !!

Silovs played well but he's no Demko. I imagine most Oilers fans were ecstatic when they heard Demko was injured and unable to play. Demko is one of the top 5 goalies in the league. He has the ability to win a series all by himself. If the Oilers had Demko in net for them they would be the 2024 Champs.

 

[Czechboy]

People are making an educated guestimate of $92-93m cap which is a $4-5m increase over the set $88m cap for the 2024-25 season. That guess sounds reasonable to me. Businesses use projections, which are basically educated guesses, all the time when calculating budgets. I don't see why NHL teams and fans should be any different.
I used the same $4-5m increase for the 2026-27 cap. Could be less. Could be more... but I wouldn't be surprised if it's in the ball park barring some kind of catastrophe/pandemic.

Edit: You're right. Puckpedia used 2024-25 $88m cap when calculating the 15.9 cap% for Draisaitl. I don't think that's right. They should be using, right now, an estimated cap of $92-93m, which would drop his % to 15.2-15.05. They should put an asterisk beside the number since it would be a guesstimate.

It's funny because looking at 2026 (when we are allegedly paying 40 million for 3 guys)... there are not many guys signed for 2026. Others gone by 2026 as of now
Both our Goalies
Skinner and Pickard

These forwards
McDavid
Kane
Arvidson
Henrique
Skinner
Perry
Brown
Podkolzin
Ryan

These D
Ekholm
Bouch
Kulak
Emberson
Stecher

I was excited for a second because Neal goes off the books and we save a million.

However, Campbells buyout goes from 1 mill to 2 mill so we still have 2 mill in dead cap.

My point, 2026 is a long ways away and a LOT can change.

Eg. I love Bouch but a lot of HF guys thinks he sucks and is carried, maybe Oilers management sees it the same and trades him at his peak instead of signs him?

The only 2 D we have signed are Nurse and Josh F'n Brown.lmao

Forwards are Drai, Hyman, RNH and Janmark.

So 6 guys are currently signed for 2026. 36 million. They could also be traded by then.

I'm going to stick to 2024 where I think we have a great cap situation:

23 mil for Bouch/Drai/McD offsets Nurse overpay IMO

OR

Put another way, 32 million for Bouch/Drai/McD/Nurse is actually good value as 3 guys are underpaid and only one is overpaid.

 

[spaghtti]

There's still a chance McDavid could leave. nothing is guaranteed. but I think Drai extending puts McDavid like 95% likely to extend.
as fun as it would be to get McDavid if he leaves Edmonton I don't think it's Toronto he's going to. I bet somewhere warm. I think what really matters is what does Mrs. McDavid want?

I'm guessing Mrs. McDavid wants to live next door to her long time friend whos engaged to Draisaitl. For thoswho don’t know Draisaitl just bought the house next door to McDavid

 

[Arthur Morgan]

I'm guessing Mrs. McDavid wants to live next door to her long time friend whos engaged to Draisaitl. For thoswho don’t know Draisaitl just bought the house next door to McDavid

ahh nice, sounds more and more like McDavid will extend

 

[Soundwave]

ahh nice, sounds more and more like McDavid will extend

0% chance Draisaitl didn't consult with McDavid before agreeing to this extension. McDavid was even in Germany when Draisaitl (also in Germany) signed the extension, lol. Their wives (well Leon's bride to be) are best friends too, I mean so yeah.

 

[behemolari]

Oilers will never win the cup when two players are spending third of cap space

 

[Soundwave]

Also looking at a team like the 2018 Cup champion Washington Capitals who even had Carlson on a bargain contract, the top 9 salaries on that team

Ovy - 9.5
Kuznetsov - 7.8
Backstrom - 6.7
Holtby - 6.1
Niskanen - 5.75
Oshie - 5.75
Orpik - 5.5
Orlov - 5.1
Carlson - 3.96

= 56.16 mill against a 75 mill cap is roughly 75% of the cap on 9 players.

Translating that to the Oilers when McDavid's next contract would kick in in two years and extrapolating a cap rise of 4 mill next year followed by 5 mill the following year (TV deal renewal in Canada) for a 97 million cap, hypothetically a roster like this

McDavid - 16
Draisaitl - 14
Bouchard - 8.75 (bridged)
Nurse - 9.25
Hyman - 5.5
RNH - 5.125
UFA winger (deadline add?) - 5
Skinner - 5 (?)
Ekholm - 4.5 (re-upped at slightly lower given his age)

= 73 mill against a 97 mill cap, that's 75% of your cap for 9 players.

They don't have space to do stupid things like Chiarelli and Holland did at times (hello Lucic and Campbell contracts) and they may have to bridge Bouchard now rather than going 8 years with him, but I think you do that. In 2-3 years, Nurse's NMC has expired and moving him becomes an option.

 

[Frank Drebin]

Oilers will never win the cup when two players are spending third of cap space

Between mcdavid, nurse, Jack campbell and james neal making a combined 28.7m or 34% of the cap the oilers came within one goal of winning it all

Playing mcdrai a combined 30m on a 100m+ cap won’t be the issue for the oilers

 

[Soundwave]

Between mcdavid, nurse, Jack campbell and james neal making a combined 28.7m or 34% of the cap the oilers came within one goal of winning it all

Playing mcdrai a combined 30m on a 100m+ cap won’t be the issue for the oilers

People really don't understand percentages, compounding, inflation cost, etc.

I hate to say it, but it's not a shocker most people aside from the already wealthy aren't good at investing their money or don't grasp what a dollar today could be worth down the line.

 

[Rubi]

I think people are deluding themselves into thinking that McDavid will sign one year from now for $16m. Right now there is a $4m difference between Draisaitl and McDavid. Draisaitl and McDavid signed $8.5m and $12.5m contracts one year apart. McDavid is well worth $4m more. He's the engine that drives the team. When McDavid signs a new contract I expect he'll get that $4m again. Why on earth would he accept less?

 

[Frank Drebin]

I think people are deluding themselves into thinking that McDavid will sign one year from now for $16m. Right now there is a $4m difference between Draisaitl and McDavid. Draisaitl and McDavid signed $8.5m and $12.5m contracts one year apart. McDavid is well worth $4m more. He's the engine that drives the team. When McDavid signs a new contract I expect he'll get that $4m again. Why on earth would he accept less?

Still going on about this i see

 

[behemolari]

Between mcdavid, nurse, Jack campbell and james neal making a combined 28.7m or 34% of the cap the oilers came within one goal of winning it all

Playing mcdrai a combined 30m on a 100m+ cap won’t be the issue for the oilers

one goal away is not winning and it was before Drai new contract, its already showing their team is falling apart

 

[Rubi]

Still going on about this i see

Still pretending that McDavid is going leave a ton of cash on the table and sign for $16m I see. I also liked that $100m+ cap bit in the 2026-27 season. Hilarious

 

[spaghtti]

Still pretending that McDavid is going leave a ton of cash on the table and sign for $16m I see. I also liked that $100m+ cap bit in the 2026-27 season. Hilarious

II will bet you that McDavid doesn't sign for more than 16% of the cap

 

[Frank Drebin]

II will bet you that McDavid doesn't sign for more than 16% of the cap

I would also bet him but chances are he doesn’t exist to me next year