Confirmed with Link: [EDM/CGY] James Neal <--> Milan Lucic ($750K Ret.) + Cond. 3rd '20 (Goals Scored Related vs. Looch)

[herestohoping]

Only downside about this trade is now I'll have to read multiple people talk about "Neil" along with "Russel".​

 

[harpoon]

Why would he have to? When's the last time Lucic did something worth "stepping up" for? 2010?

You’re dreaming. Every game I would see players give Lucic an extra wide berth. The after the whistle extra-curriculars are greatly reduced when a player like Lucic is looking in your direction. Or even just standing there.

I’m not complaining about the trade at all, but let’s not pretend that Lucic isn’t still an intimidating presence on the ice.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Only downside about this trade is now I'll have to read multiple people talk about "Neil" along with "Russel".​

Chris Russel and Jaymes Neil

 

[Del Preston]

Only downside about this trade is now I'll have to read multiple people talk about "Neil" along with "Russel".​

Don't forget MacDavid and Nugget-Hopskin.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Did you not proof read the bolded?

So you're saying that they're similar players.

And your line about him bouncing around is laughable, you know what the expansion draft is right?

No... you actually have to look at the stats and see that Neal is a more negative player than Lucic... do you understand the concept of more than and less than? Players aren't "the same" amount of good or bad... there are shades and degrees of goodness and badness.

I'm not even talking about just these 2 players here. It's like comparing Kucherov and McDavid for example... both are great players but McDavid is notably better on a relative basis taking into account many contextual factors.

Call his moving from team what you will. Played in Vegas then in Calgary... now with the Oilers. That's a fact... but yes that's in addition to the fact that he's a clearly negative player. If he'd been a positive player these past 3 seasons my strong assumption is that he wouldn't be on the Oilers right now.

 

[Beerfish]

It's funny. If Neal is such a "issue" in the dressing room like you claim he is.

Why does every single team that he goes to strap an "A" on his chest?

On his 6th team despite scoring on a regular pace in this league.

 

[McVirginOil]

Positives:
-Buyout costs less with Neal
- No NMC so no forced expansion draft protection
- Neal is a better counting stats player that will most likely shoot more than 4%
- Could work out here, we already know what we had with Lucic
- Pretty good conditionals set for the 3rd rounder

Negatives:
- Salary retaining was a little more rich than I would’ve hoped
- Lucic is a bit better driving play believe it or not

Overall grade: B+ to A-, pretty good trade for Holland here. Oilers win imo

 

[PaPaDee]

Positives:
-Buyout costs less with Neal
- No NMC so no forced expansion draft protection
- Neal is a better counting stats player that will most likely shoot more than 4%
- Could work out here, we already know what we had with Lucic
- Pretty good conditionals set for the 3rd rounder

Negatives:
- Salary retaining was a little more rich than I would’ve hoped
- Lucic is a bit better driving play believe it or not

Overall grade: B+ to A-, pretty good trade for Holland here. Oilers win imo

Lucic drives the play? Does not compute.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

On his 6th team despite scoring on a regular pace in this league.

His trade from Dallas to Pittsburgh was a hockey trade to get Dallas a good D man.

His trade from Penguins to Nashville was to balance their lineup with Hornqvist.

His move from Nashville to Vegas was due to Nashville protecting 4 D.

His move from Vegas to Calgary was due to free agency.

His move from Calgary to Edmonton was cause he had a bad year.

He's literally been moved once in his career as a throwaway.

 

[Aerchon]

There is a ton of moving parts to this deal but some people are really trying to spin this as a positive with just bad logic.

Realistically at best this ends up being a third round pick, and 6.5 mill cap hit for a player that is garbage but may score some goals.

Staple him to McDavid and move Draisaitl to another line and maybe... just maybe this works out for the team.

Neal sucks. I mean suuuuuuuucks. Worse than Lucic sucks. Sure, he has a "better" chance of rebounding than Lucic but that chance is still low. Neal is a power forward who has lost his power. In the new nhl that's not worth 1m let alone 6.5.

Neal is rumored to be a locker room distraction.

His deal is effectively buyout proof. Holland is even a bigger idiot than I think he is if he buys out Neal.

His contract status does not matter in regards to the expansion draft. We don't have any forwards worth protecting outside of McDavid Draisaitl and Nuge. We will probably protect 4 defenders because our forwards are so bad. Anyone using that to rational this move is grasping.

I very much get the feeling both fan bases want to "win" the trade when barring a miracle both players will be so bad they hurt the team and will be scorned universally by Christmas.

And since the Oilers retained salary like they did that means it's likely the Oil lose the trade.

 

[McVirginOil]

You can't hand wave away negative stats by just saying a player plays on a better team...

Here's the raw stats over the past 3 seasons when Neal is on the ice at ES :

109 GF 121 GA

Now when Lucic is on the ice at ES (same 3 seasons):

117 GF 121 GA

Of course the adjusted stats up above that I posted in my previous post are much more accurate an indicator of the two players play because they take more factors and more contextual stats into account... but this shows that Neal is WORSE on good teams than Lucic is on a poorer team.

Ok and yes you are right it's a net differential of $500,000 but my point still stands... that $500,000 plus another $250,000 could have been used for a hungry young UFA addition like Lindberg.

Good analysis but imo it would be better to look at QoT and/or QoC rather than simply stating “Neal was on better teams/Lucic was on good teams”. Lucic was benefiting being on the ice with McDavid for far too long and Neal doesn’t really have a comparable player that he’s played with on McDavid level. Moreover, raw goals in general isn’t a good predictive stat because goalies are extremely variable on both ends.

 

[McVirginOil]

Lucic drives the play? Does not compute.

He does but it’s nothing drastically good, he’s just a different player than Neal who’s more of a spot-up and shoot type of guy.

 

[Del Preston]

His deal is effectively buyout proof.

It's a standard contract without any signing bonuses, pretty much what a team would want a contract to look like if they were going to buy it out.

 

[pabst blue ribbon]

The relative stats show that Neal has been the worse player... not sure how you see them as the same.

Neal makes a good team much WORSE when he's on the ice.
Lucic makes a poorer team just slightly worse when he's on the ice.

If Neal makes a good team worse... don't you think he'd make a poorer team even worse as well?

This is after looking at contextual stats such as teammate quality, zone starts, score effects etc.


Some more context...

Over the past 3 seasons at ES the Oilers team has an adjusted GF% of 49.02% That's essentially your baseline for comparing positive/neutral/negative players on the team.

Lucic over those past 3 seasons... 48.81% adjusted GF%


Over those same past 3 seasons here's the aggregate adjusted GF% of the 3 teams Neal has played on... 53.37% adjusted GF%

Neal over those past 3 seasons... 46.5% adjusted GF%



From there you look at adjusted RelT stats which take into account zone starts, teammate quality when they were on the ice, score effects, home/away differential etc (which I've shown in a previous post).

Neal has definitely been the more relatively negative player on his teams over the past 3 years.. hence his bouncing from org to org.

Again, the future isn't necessarily going to be the past and numbers often jump around and are variable (as we've seen with the severe dropoff in both Neal and Lucic)... but I just wanted to show that Neal is definitely a very negative player and this isn't necessarily a clear win as it might 1st appear.

A lot of posters concocting dream scenarios where Neal sees a massive bounce back are being overly optimistic, his underlying numbers have fallen off pretty hard and his production is starting to follow suit.

It's still a very nice trade for the Oilers because Neal's contract is nowhere near the poison pill that the Lucic deal is, the on ice performance of both the players involved won't be much of a factor in this trade since both players will likely remain very bad

 

[onetweasy]

The relative stats show that Neal has been the worse player... not sure how you see them as the same.

Neal makes a good team much WORSE when he's on the ice.
Lucic makes a poorer team just slightly worse when he's on the ice.

If Neal makes a good team worse... don't you think he'd make a poorer team even worse as well?

This is after looking at contextual stats such as teammate quality, zone starts, score effects etc.


Some more context...

Over the past 3 seasons at ES the Oilers team has an adjusted GF% of 49.02% That's essentially your baseline for comparing positive/neutral/negative players on the team.

Lucic over those past 3 seasons... 48.81% adjusted GF%


Over those same past 3 seasons here's the aggregate adjusted GF% of the 3 teams Neal has played on... 53.37% adjusted GF%

Neal over those past 3 seasons... 46.5% adjusted GF%



From there you look at adjusted RelT stats which take into account zone starts, teammate quality when they were on the ice, score effects, home/away differential etc (which I've shown in a previous post).

Neal has definitely been the more relatively negative player on his teams over the past 3 years.. hence his bouncing from org to org.

Again, the future isn't necessarily going to be the past and numbers often jump around and are variable (as we've seen with the severe dropoff in both Neal and Lucic)... but I just wanted to show that Neal is definitely a very negative player and this isn't necessarily a clear win as it might 1st appear.

Neal can take and transition a pass from the half boards. That’s worth more than any of your stats......

 

[Soundwave]

There is a ton of moving parts to this deal but some people are really trying to spin this as a positive with just bad logic.

Realistically at best this ends up being a third round pick, and 6.5 mill cap hit for a player that is garbage but may score some goals.

Staple him to McDavid and move Draisaitl to another line and maybe... just maybe this works out for the team.

Neal sucks. I mean suuuuuuuucks. Worse than Lucic sucks. Sure, he has a "better" chance of rebounding than Lucic but that chance is still low. Neal is a power forward who has lost his power. In the new nhl that's not worth 1m let alone 6.5.

Neal is rumored to be a locker room distraction.

His deal is effectively buyout proof. Holland is even a bigger idiot than I think he is if he buys out Neal.

His contract status does not matter in regards to the expansion draft. We don't have any forwards worth protecting outside of McDavid Draisaitl and Nuge. We will probably protect 4 defenders because our forwards are so bad. Anyone using that to rational this move is grasping.

I very much get the feeling both fan bases want to "win" the trade when barring a miracle both players will be so bad they hurt the team and will be scorned universally by Christmas.

And since the Oilers retained salary like they did that means it's likely the Oil lose the trade.

What's the alternative? Sitting around and waiting 4 years for Lucic's contract to come off the books?

He doesn't work here, not even with McDavid.

With Neal you got options at least. If he can score at a rate comparable to Kassian did with McDavid, odds are you can at least find a taker for him in a year or two.

With Lucic really the Oilers were looking at 50% retention (so $3 mill cap penalty) + a 1st or high 2nd round pick minimum to lose Lucic next summer.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Good analysis but imo it would be better to look at QoT and/or QoC rather than simply stating “Neal was on better teams/Lucic was on good teams”. Lucic was benefiting being on the ice with McDavid for far too long and Neal doesn’t really have a comparable player that he’s played with on McDavid level. Moreover, raw goals in general isn’t a good predictive stat because goalies are extremely variable on both ends.

Yes... already showed the stats for that in a previous post a couple pages back.

After taking into account pretty much every notable factor... zone starts, score effects, home/away play, QoT, QoC.. the end result is that Neal has been a more negative player than Lucic over the past 3 seasons.. and now we wait to see if that continues (at effectively $6.5 million per year) or Neal rebounds into becoming a positive player for his team again... like he was 4+ years ago.

 

[McFlyingV]

There is a ton of moving parts to this deal but some people are really trying to spin this as a positive with just bad logic.

Realistically at best this ends up being a third round pick, and 6.5 mill cap hit for a player that is garbage but may score some goals.

Staple him to McDavid and move Draisaitl to another line and maybe... just maybe this works out for the team.

Neal sucks. I mean suuuuuuuucks. Worse than Lucic sucks. Sure, he has a "better" chance of rebounding than Lucic but that chance is still low. Neal is a power forward who has lost his power. In the new nhl that's not worth 1m let alone 6.5.

Neal is rumored to be a locker room distraction.

His deal is effectively buyout proof. Holland is even a bigger idiot than I think he is if he buys out Neal.

His contract status does not matter in regards to the expansion draft. We don't have any forwards worth protecting outside of McDavid Draisaitl and Nuge. We will probably protect 4 defenders because our forwards are so bad. Anyone using that to rational this move is grasping.

I very much get the feeling both fan bases want to "win" the trade when barring a miracle both players will be so bad they hurt the team and will be scorned universally by Christmas.

And since the Oilers retained salary like they did that means it's likely the Oil lose the trade.

How exactly is Neal's contract buyout proof? If he bought him out next year the Oilers take on 1.9M cap hit for 6 years plus 750k for the next 3 from Lucic retention. That would mean they would save 3.35M cap space for 3 years at the cost of losing 1.9M cap space in the following 3 years. Alternatively, lets say Neal contributes scores some goals and they keep him next year, but then his game falls apart and they decide to buy him out the following year. He would then be a 1.9M cap hit for 4 years meaning they would save 3.35M cap space for 2 years at the cost of a 1.9M hit for the following 2.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

There is a ton of moving parts to this deal but some people are really trying to spin this as a positive with just bad logic.

Realistically at best this ends up being a third round pick, and 6.5 mill cap hit for a player that is garbage but may score some goals.

Staple him to McDavid and move Draisaitl to another line and maybe... just maybe this works out for the team.

Neal sucks. I mean suuuuuuuucks. Worse than Lucic sucks. Sure, he has a "better" chance of rebounding than Lucic but that chance is still low. Neal is a power forward who has lost his power. In the new nhl that's not worth 1m let alone 6.5.

ummm, Neal had 1 more goal than Lucic in 16 less games....wtf are you talking about lol

His deal is effectively buyout proof. Holland is even a bigger idiot than I think he is if he buys out Neal.

surely you're talking about Lucic here right? right?
tell me you know how bad Looch's contract is

 

[GRadio]

Nothing but good things to say about Lucic the man, he just signed a contract that was worth way more than he is. We all would have done it.

He was a great guy and a great locker room presence, that said I’m stoked on Neal. I wanted him when the Flames signed him.

Thanks Looch!

 

[Not Canada Drai]

According to my calculations, Lucic's retention is not added to Neal's cap hit or salary so I'm not really sure why people are tacking it on. Another one of HFOil's finest's tricks to discredit and cry about everything.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Yes... already showed the stats for that in a previous post a couple pages back.

After taking into account pretty much every notable factor... zone starts, score effects, home/away play, QoT, QoC.. the end result is that Neal has been a more negative player than Lucic over the past 3 seasons.. and now we wait to see if that continues (at effectively $6.5 million per year) or Neal rebounds into becoming a positive player for his team again... like he was 4+ years ago.

I don't anyone here is saying Neal is suddenly going to turn into Mark Stone
both players have bad contracts and both players had bad seasons

the reason it's a big "win" for the Oilers IMO is that the Oilers get out from under that NMC and buyout -proof contract...everything else is gravy

 

[McFlyingV]

Yes... already showed the stats for that in a previous post a couple pages back.

After taking into account pretty much every notable factor... zone starts, score effects, home/away play, QoT, QoC.. the end result is that Neal has been a more negative player than Lucic over the past 3 seasons.. and now we wait to see if that continues (at effectively $6.5 million per year) or Neal rebounds into becoming a positive player for his team again... like he was 4+ years ago.

How is QoT measured though? I'm sure it's based off advanced stats like CF%, when in reality that stat shows McDavid as a worse player than a lot of 3rd liners. I think the truly incredible stat to look at is Lucic's abysmal goal and point production the past two seasons while playing significant minutes with all of McDavid, Drai, and Nuge, while also getting significant top unit PP time, and at worst 2nd PP time. The only season that Neal has seen Lucic like production was when he was playing almost exclusively 3rd line with 30 point line mates, and 2nd PP time.

In fact, the only season Lucic ever produced anything in Edmonton was a complete anomaly season where he scored 50% of his points and goals on the PP as a guy who has never been a good PP producer. All while spending most of the year stapled to McDavid and Draisaitl.

 

[Senor Catface]

His trade from Dallas to Pittsburgh was a hockey trade to get Dallas a good D man.

His trade from Penguins to Nashville was to balance their lineup with Hornqvist.

His move from Nashville to Vegas was due to Nashville protecting 4 D.

His move from Vegas to Calgary was due to free agency.

His move from Calgary to Edmonton was cause he had a bad year.

He's literally been moved once in his career as a throwaway.

Not that you will get a response

 

[nexttothemoon]

If the Oilers do buyout Neal next summer... it's another $1.9 million of cap space taken up for 7 years... and add to that the $750,00 on the books for Lucic's retained salary for 3 more years after next summer) as well.

The total cap savings over 7 years would be about $2.2 million buying out Neal next summer rather than just buying out Lucic next summer. Modest difference.