Confirmed with Link: [EDM/CGY] James Neal <--> Milan Lucic ($750K Ret.) + Cond. 3rd '20 (Goals Scored Related vs. Looch)

[Cypress]

HaHa, HaHa! (throws confetti)

 

[Skolman]

it would be kinda funny if Neal ended up getting selected by Seattle for expansion

It's just his lot in life

If he bounces back, it's possible. They will be looking for some leadership.

 

[Cypress]

Wouldn't it be so Oilers tho if Lucic became an effective player only against Edmonton, and blasted McDavid headfirst into the boards one game because Oilers?

Though I do look forward to McDavid stealing the puck from Lucic, then skating an extra circle around him just because, then going in for a breakaway immediately after.

 

[McFlyingV]

As absurd as it sounds, someone on TV last season said the company who made his stick/blade stopped for a reason I can't recall and his shot suffered. He was using different ones for the majority of the season I believe.

Interesting. I'm sure he could find a company that can make him a similar stick if that is the case.

 

[McFlyingV]

Wouldn't it be so Oilers tho if Lucic became an effective player only against Edmonton, and blasted McDavid headfirst into the boards one game because Oilers?

Lucic could never catch McDavid even if he wanted to. I imagine he will be a complete no-show in terms of physicality in games against Edmonton much like he was against LA and Boston.

 

[bobbythebrain]

Looks like it will cost us a 3rd. Neal slated for top 6 while Holland admitted Cgy has theirs set.

Still a good deal

 

[Skolman]

Wouldn't it be so Oilers tho if Lucic became an effective player only against Edmonton, and blasted McDavid headfirst into the boards one game because Oilers?

I highly doubt the Flames are going to let Lucic on the ice with McDavid.

I hope they do though, I hope he's on the ice for every single shift McDavid plays against the Flames.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Good thing the oilers cap only went up 500k, not 750k.

The flaw with your relative stats, is Neal has played on a much better team than Lucic, so of course his rel will look worse than Lucic's.

You can't hand wave away negative stats by just saying a player plays on a better team...

Here's the raw stats over the past 3 seasons when Neal is on the ice at ES :

109 GF 121 GA

Now when Lucic is on the ice at ES (same 3 seasons):

117 GF 121 GA

Of course the adjusted stats up above that I posted in my previous post are much more accurate an indicator of the two players play because they take more factors and more contextual stats into account... but this shows that Neal is WORSE on good teams than Lucic is on a poorer team.

Ok and yes you are right it's a net differential of $500,000 but my point still stands... that $500,000 plus another $250,000 could have been used for a hungry young UFA addition like Lindberg.

 

[McFlyingV]

Looks like it will cost us a 3rd. Neal slated for top 6 while Holland admitted Cgy has theirs set.

Still a good deal

I think it's actually better for us if we give up the 3rd. It means Neal scored 20+ goals and improved our top 6.

 

[Beerfish]

As usual the oilers fan base hate of a certain player makes them overvalue the compensation coming back. This has not gone bad before.

The deal may be much better, it has the potential but it is no slam dunk at all.

People happy to get him out of the dressing room bewilder me as I do not think he was an issue whereas Neal has bounced form team to team and has issues.

Tough to say in the finance part of it but in the long run sounds better for us.

Lucic adds more toughness, more hits and some of his advanced stats were much better.

If Neal rebounds into a 20 plus goal scorer we are the winners most likely but this is not the slam dunk big oiler win that some are making it out to be.

 

[MessierII]

Looks like it will cost us a 3rd. Neal slated for top 6 while Holland admitted Cgy has theirs set.

Still a good deal

If it costs us a 3rd that means we won the trade hands down. No lose situation.

 

[jukon]

Here's hoping Neal scores 40 goals and Lucic scores 6! lol

 

[bobbythebrain]

Pretty confident from Kens int that Neal will get a look w/ McD

Let's hope this works out for years to come

 

[Skolman]

As usual the oilers fan base hate of a certain player makes them overvalue the compensation coming back. This has not gone bad before.

The deal may be much better, it has the potential but it is no slam dunk at all.

People happy to get him out of the dressing room bewilder me as I do not think he was an issue whereas Neal has bounced form team to team and has issues.

Tough to say in the finance part of it but in the long run sounds better for us.

Lucic adds more toughness, more hits and some of his advanced stats were much better.

If Neal rebounds into a 20 plus goal scorer we are the winners most likely but this is not the slam dunk big oiler win that some are making it out to be.

It's funny. If Neal is such a "issue" in the dressing room like you claim he is.

Why does every single team that he goes to strap an "A" on his chest?

 

[CupofOil]

As usual the oilers fan base hate of a certain player makes them overvalue the compensation coming back. This has not gone bad before.

The deal may be much better, it has the potential but it is no slam dunk at all.

People happy to get him out of the dressing room bewilder me as I do not think he was an issue whereas Neal has bounced form team to team and has issues.

Tough to say in the finance part of it but in the long run sounds better for us.

Lucic adds more toughness, more hits and some of his advanced stats were much better.

If Neal rebounds into a 20 plus goal scorer we are the winners most likely but this is not the slam dunk big oiler win that some are making it out to be.

Even if both players stink it up like they did this past season and probably will again next season, it's still a win because the Neal contract is more manageable in regards to potential buyout, trade and expansion draft protection due to no NMC. If he performs well, that's merely a bonus but he doesn't have to perform well in order for this to be a win for the Oilers.

It's not really a slam dunk trade but you can't fault people for seeing this as a win for the Oilers. If Neal provides 20+ goals without being a big negative then it becomes a slam dunk trade.

 

[Mr Positive]

You can't hand wave away negative stats by just saying a player plays on a better team...

Here's the raw stats over the past 3 seasons when Neal is on the ice at ES :

109 GF 121 GA

Now when Lucic is on the ice at ES (same 3 seasons):

117 GF 121 GA

Of course the adjusted stats up above that I posted in my previous post are much more accurate an indicator of the two players play because they take more factors and more contextual stats into account... but this shows that Neal is WORSE on good teams than Lucic is on a poorer team.

Ok and yes you are right it's a net differential of $500,000 but my point still stands... that $500,000 plus another $250,000 could have been used for a hungry young UFA addition like Lindberg.

being on a better team isn't necessarily a boost though. Here it seemed like Lucic was given a lot of leash just because there weren't better options, and there's more time to "get the player going" when the season is lost by putting him minutes and linemates he didn't deserve.

There's also the distraction factor. It was the right thing to trade him because the player basically wanted out (although he was willing to stay), the fans wanted him out, and he just wasn't meshing. Finding a trade was the right thing to do, and it helps you sign guys when they see you treating players right.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Neal bounced around from team to team? He played for Dallas, Pittsburg and Nashville. Vegas claimed him in expansion cause Nashville had tons of defenders to protect, Calgary signed him and now traded him. That's not bouncing around

 

[Tobias Kahun]

You can't hand wave away negative stats by just saying a player plays on a better team...

Here's the raw stats over the past 3 seasons when Neal is on the ice at ES :

109 GF 121 GA

Now when Lucic is on the ice at ES (same 3 seasons):

117 GF 121 GA

Of course the adjusted stats up above that I posted in my previous post are much more accurate an indicator of the two players play because they take more factors and more contextual stats into account... but this shows that Neal is WORSE on good teams than Lucic is on a poorer team.

Ok and yes you are right it's a net differential of $500,000 but my point still stands... that $500,000 plus another $250,000 could have been used for a hungry young UFA addition like Lindberg.

So they're comparable players.

So you just proved how little your relative stats actually showed.

 

[Hopelesslucicfan]

Neal being on the outs with the coach, having two short offseasons in a row, and shooting at less than half his career average has me optimistic about him in a top 6 role here.

He isn't going to go back to 30 or 40 goal form, but I really think he can pot 20 on the second line playing with Nuge and probably Benson.

At the very least, I don't have to worry about protecting lucic in the expansion draft anymore which was a major issue for me.

 

[nexttothemoon]

being on a better team isn't necessarily a boost though. Here it seemed like Lucic was given a lot of leash just because there weren't better options, and there's more time to "get the player going" when the season is lost by putting him minutes and linemates he didn't deserve.

There's also the distraction factor. It was the right thing to trade him because the player basically wanted out (although he was willing to stay), the fans wanted him out, and he just wasn't meshing. Finding a trade was the right thing to do, and it helps you sign guys when they see you treating players right.

I will agree with that... sometimes a change is a decent boost for both players involved in a "change of scenery" situation and as you say when players aren't working out in their current situation... which looks to be the case with Neal and Lucic.. then a change can be a positive... maybe.


I just am not looking at this trade as such a clear win because based on recent history this is a negative player heading out for another even more negative player coming in and now that bigger negative player has an effective contract of $6.5 million. I do see the buyout cost for Neal is slightly better so that is a positive.

 

[Cypress]

I think it's actually better for us if we give up the 3rd. It means Neal scored 20+ goals and improved our top 6.

Yeah, when i first heard conditional 3rd round pick before details were posted, I was worried it would be more like "guaranteeed 3rd, becomes a first if [present conditions]"

 

[Del Preston]

After reading the Nielson quote about Lucic/Puljujarvi, I'm guessing Lucic is someone JP's agent was talking about when he said the team was still the same as last season. But I thought there was a rumour that a few players called Jesse after the trade request and Lucic was one of them.

 

[nexttothemoon]

So they're comparable players.

So you just proved how little your relative stats actually showed.

The relative stats show that Neal has been the worse player... not sure how you see them as the same.

Neal makes a good team much WORSE when he's on the ice.
Lucic makes a poorer team just slightly worse when he's on the ice.

If Neal makes a good team worse... don't you think he'd make a poorer team even worse as well?

This is after looking at contextual stats such as teammate quality, zone starts, score effects etc.


Some more context...

Over the past 3 seasons at ES the Oilers team has an adjusted GF% of 49.02% That's essentially your baseline for comparing positive/neutral/negative players on the team.

Lucic over those past 3 seasons... 48.81% adjusted GF%


Over those same past 3 seasons here's the aggregate adjusted GF% of the 3 teams Neal has played on... 53.37% adjusted GF%

Neal over those past 3 seasons... 46.5% adjusted GF%



From there you look at adjusted RelT stats which take into account zone starts, teammate quality when they were on the ice, score effects, home/away differential etc (which I've shown in a previous post).

Neal has definitely been the more relatively negative player on his teams over the past 3 years.. hence his bouncing from org to org.

Again, the future isn't necessarily going to be the past and numbers often jump around and are variable (as we've seen with the severe dropoff in both Neal and Lucic)... but I just wanted to show that Neal is definitely a very negative player and this isn't necessarily a clear win as it might 1st appear.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

The relative stats show that Neal has been the worse player... not sure how you see them as the same.

Neal makes a good team WORSE when he's on the ice.
Lucic makes a poorer team just slightly worse when he's on the ice.

If Neal makes a good team worse... don't you think he'd make a poorer team even worse as well?

This is after looking at contextual stats such as teammate quality, zone starts, score effects etc.


Some more context...

Over the past 3 seasons at ES the Oilers team has an adjusted GF% of 49.02% That's essentially your baseline for comparing positive/neutral/negative players on the team.

Lucic over those past 3 seasons... 48.81% adjusted GF%


Over those same past 3 seasons here's the aggregate adjusted GF% of the 3 teams Neal has played on... 53.37% adjusted GF%

Neal over those past 3 seasons... 46.5% adjusted GF%



From there you look at adjusted RelT stats which take into account zone starts, teammate quality when they were on the ice, score effects, home/away differential etc.

Neal has definitely been the more relatively negative player on his teams over the past 3 years.. hence his bouncing from org to org.

Again, the future isn't necessarily going to be the past and numbers often jump around and are variable (as we've seen with the severe dropoff in both Neal and Lucic)... but I just wanted to show that Neal is definitely a very negative player and this isn't a clear win as it might 1st appear.

Did you not proof read the bolded?

So you're saying that they're similar players.

And your line about him bouncing around is laughable, you know what the expansion draft is right?

 

[CycloneSweep]

After reading the Nielson quote about Lucic/Puljujarvi, I'm guessing Lucic is someone JP's agent was talking about when he said the team was still the same as last season. But I thought there was a rumour that a few players called Jesse after the trade request and Lucic was one of them.

Yeah he called to say "You better leave pizza boy, I'm hungry." Jk