Confirmed with Link: [EDM/BUF] McLeod + Tullio for Matt Savoie

[Canovin]

One comparison that people like to make with Savoie is Brayden Point (Moose Jaw connection).

I was just listening to an interview with Mathieu Darche, and he mentioned Point and how he fell to the 3rd round because at the time he had concerns with his skating. Point put the work in with their skating coach. They really focus on finding guys with a "growth mindset" and help their prospects development. I think we will find out if Savoie has that same drive to be better every day and willing to put the work in. With Kalle Larsson stepping in, I would imagine that Savoie has every resource at his disposal to get stronger.

Anyways, Point was able to make the jump to the NHL in his Draft +3 and put up 40 points. Given that Savoie is entering his Draft +3 I think a realistic expectation is that Savoie puts up similar production. Given how much higher he was drafted, as long as he has the same opportunity, he could eventually grow into that 80-point player in a few years.

If he plays C, I can definitely see the Point route. If he plays W, I can also see Caufield or Eberle. if he breaks out, we have the roster to help him sustain it as well.

 

[Donner]

Anyways, Point was able to make the jump to the NHL in his Draft +3 and put up 40 points. Given that Savoie is entering his Draft +3 I think a realistic expectation is that Savoie puts up similar production. Given how much higher he was drafted, as long as he has the same opportunity, he could eventually grow into that 80-point player in a few years.

I do think that in order for him to show he has top line potential (or more), he has to have a minimum PPG in the NHL next year of 0.42 (35 point pace) and 0.8-1 PPG in the AHL. Hes in his draft +3 year so should show some impact. Then the year after 40-45 points mininum

If he doesnt hit these, I wouldnt be dissappointed, but these figures are what a tracking top line+ talent puts up. If hes putting up less, thats ok but likely means hes not a top line talent. The numbers above would be similar to Eberle at a similar stage

 

[Broberg Speed]

Being a hometown player I wouldn't be surprised if Savoie is extra motivated...

 

[brentashton]

Being a hometown player I wouldn't be surprised if Savoie is extra motivated...

It could work for or against him. It depends on his ability to use the pressure that will come with it productively. It’s a crap shoot element really.

 

[The Nuge]

As much as I love Rico and Perry, we are a significantly slower team with Foegele and Clouder gone. A lot of 'team speed' was lost.

We are in danger of being 'old and slow'.

Arvidsson and Holloway aren’t exactly slow as their replacements, and they’re MUCH more skilled. I wouldn’t say we’re significantly slower. Especially since McLeod and Foegele were both healthy scratched in the playoffs, and they would have been 4th liners for us this year. It’s not like we’re getting slower at the top of the lineup

I think Savoie’s ELC makes him far too valuable for us to trade

100%. It’s very likely he has a 60+ point season while on his ELC. Contenders dream of having a prospect like Savoie. Usually you have to tank, and then they’re off their ELC before you’re a winning team.

Too small and too injury prone. Those reasons for us moving on from him haven't changed.

Except by far the biggest reason was his contract

 

[Stoneman89]

Arvidsson and Holloway aren’t exactly slow as their replacements, and they’re MUCH more skilled. I wouldn’t say we’re significantly slower. Especially since McLeod and Foegele were both healthy scratched in the playoffs, and they would have been 4th liners for us this year. It’s not like we’re getting slower at the top of the lineup



100%. It’s very likely he has a 60+ point season while on his ELC. Contenders dream of having a prospect like Savoie. Usually you have to tank, and then they’re off their ELC before you’re a winning team.



Except by far the biggest reason was his contract

Had he lived up to the contract, it would have been a non-factor.

 

[DL44]

I saw this today and was sooooo confused for a sec...

Oilers do not qualify Savoie

https://dailyhive.com/edmonton/oilers-prospect-overseas

 

[Thomas Tatar]

It could work for or against him. It depends on his ability to use the pressure that will come with it productively. It’s a crap shoot element really.

But there is no real pressure on him. I think that is what will help him succeed. We finally have an organization that doesn't need to rush our prospects or have them perform because no one else will. Having a veteran leadership core like McDrai will help ease this kid in. I could see him excelling in this environment.

 

[brentashton]

But there is no real pressure on him. I think that is what will help him succeed. We finally have an organization that doesn't need to rush our prospects or have them perform because no one else will. Having a veteran leadership core like McDrai will help ease this kid in. I could see him excelling in this environment.

The pressure I refer to is of a local kid trying to make and stick and live up to the hype on the hometown pro team.

Like I said, it depends on his ability to use that for or against.

The situation you describe helps take the edge off for sure but I don’t believe we will know until we know how he manages that dynamic.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

The pressure I refer to is of a local kid trying to make and stick and live up to the hype on the hometown pro team.

Like I said, it depends on his ability to use that for or against.

The situation you describe helps take the edge off for sure but I don’t believe we will know until we know how he manages that dynamic.

I'd imagine that's a point Kulak and especially Stu can/will help him with.

Weirdly another local kid might be a solid comparison stylistically for Savoie: Ray Whitney.
Let's just hope he doesn't get tossed to the curb in the same way right before his breakout.

 

[Fourier]

I'd imagine that's a point Kulak and especially Stu can/will help him with.

Weirdly another local kid might be a solid comparison stylistically for Savoie: Ray Whitney.
Let's just hope he doesn't get tossed to the curb in the same way right before his breakout.

The good news is that Whitney played at a time where smaller skill guys were really discounted. I am not so sure that is as true today.

 

[McTonyBrar]

If Savoie and Broberg break out this season, we could be looking at a 3 years dynasty

Broberg has broken out. Savoie we will see after the deadline and he will breakout around then. We got our Mike Comrie 2.0 without the Hilary Duff situation

 

[On The Prowl]

Being a hometown player I wouldn't be surprised if Savoie is extra motivated...

Didnt work very well for Drouin and the Habs, it seemed to make him worse even.

 

[McJadeddog]

Didnt work very well for Drouin and the Habs, it seemed to make him worse even.

I think the "hometown effect" is overblown no matter how the player turns out. I think its a very small impact, if any, in the vast majority of cases.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Broberg has broken out. Savoie we will see after the deadline and he will breakout around then. We got our Mike Comrie 2.0 without the Hilary Duff situation

That’s kind of a stretch. Need a bit more than 10 decent games to say a player broke out imo.

 

[Fourier]

With Leon signing for $14M this trade becomes even more crucial. If Savoie can play regularly with any success by 2025-26 it would be huge.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

I think savoie on his ELC will be a huge driver in keeping us at the top.

 

[bucks_oil]

With Leon signing for $14M this trade becomes even more crucial. If Savoie can play regularly with any success by 2025-26 it would be huge.

Agree with this... by 2026, our lineup needs to look something like this:

Nuge (5.1) McD (16) Hyman (5.5)
Savoie (1 ELC) Draisaitl (14) New Winger (5)
Checker (3) Shutdown C (5) Checker (3)
Janmark (1.5) Vet C (1.5) Young Player (1 ELC)

Ekholm (6) Bouch (10)
Nurse (9.25) 2RD (6)
Vet (1.5) Wanner/Akey (1 ELC)

Skinner (4)
Rodrigue (1 ELC)

Even that's bursting at the seems cap wise.

When you map it out like that it really makes you realize how limited our AHL/prospect depth really is. I mean we need three guys to be contributing on ELC and who do we really have that will be ready in two years?

On Defense it's Wanner, Akey... maybe Munzenberger? Yevseyev? It gets thin pretty quick.

Up front the story is even worse... after Savoie, who? O'Reilly shouldn't be rushed, probably needs at least his draft +2 to be outside the NHL. Who else? Berezkin? This article summarized things quite bleakly, but it is tough to disagree with. Mass fail of Edmonton Oilers forward prospects a shocker -- but don't count out top KHL attacker

The point is, we need a lot to go right... I still feel like letting Holloway get away was a mistake.

 

[Fourier]

Agree with this... by 2026, our lineup needs to look something like this:

Nuge (5.1) McD (16) Hyman (5.5)
Savoie (1 ELC) Draisaitl (14) New Winger (5)
Checker (3) Shutdown C (5) Checker (3)
Janmark (1.5) Vet C (1.5) Young Player (1 ELC)

Ekholm (6) Bouch (10)
Nurse (9.25) 2RD (6)
Vet (1.5) Wanner/Akey (1 ELC)

Skinner (4)
Rodrigue (1 ELC)

Even that's bursting at the seems cap wise.

When you map it out like that it really makes you realize how limited our AHL/prospect depth really is. I mean we need three guys to be contributing on ELC and who do we really have that will be ready in two years?

On Defense it's Wanner, Akey... maybe Munzenberger? Yevseyev? It gets thin pretty quick.

Up front the story is even worse... after Savoie, who? O'Reilly shouldn't be rushed, probably needs at least his draft +2 to be outside the NHL. Who else? Berezkin? This article summarized things quite bleakly, but it is tough to disagree with. Mass fail of Edmonton Oilers forward prospects a shocker -- but don't count out top KHL attacker

The point is, we need a lot to go right... I still feel like letting Holloway get away was a mistake.

I am more bullish on the Oilers prospect pool than most I suspect. But its not because I think it should be ranked higher than it is. No question it is one of the bottom dwellers in terms of traditional rankings. However, the reason teams get ranked high is almost always because of a few high-end talents. The reason most teams have those high end talents is because they are bad and drafted high. Because they are bad for the team to succeed those high-end guys typically have to become the drivers, #1C or top pairing defensemen. The Oilers don't need that out of their pool. Aside from perhaps Savoie becoming a complementary top six forward, the Oilers primarily need to fill in cheap secondary and tertiary roles which makes life a lot easier.

If we grant that the second pairing rhd is probably not coming internally in the next few years the Oilers need to fill out the #5,6 and 7 defensemen as well as to find probably a #4C and then some bottom 6 wingers that are cheap.

The year McDavid starts his new contract will be O'Reilly's D+3 year. If he reaches his potential he may well be ready for the #4C role and with good fortune be poised to take over from Henrique when his deal is up. But until then they do have both Hamblin and Philp that could step in and fill the not so big shoes of Derek Ryan. Aside from Ryan's work on the pk I suspect Hamblin today could fill Ryan's role in the #4C spot. Philp has NHL size and showed very well in the AHL. We will see if he can step back in where he left off but he certainly looked like he could at least give Ryan a run for that spot in his last year in the AHL.

On the wings I still have hope for Lavoie. But there are two other young guys who are solid prospects to be NHL players in Podkolzin and Jarventie. Podkolzin plays a game that is fairly well suited to a bottom 6 role already. He scored 14 goals as a rookie and definitely has some upside to go along with excellent speed and an aggressive physical game. I don't know much about Jarventie outside of his injury but if his knee holds up he could be a solid bottom 6 winger who can also play center. Beyond these two there are guys like Berezkin and my pick as a dark horse Matvei Petrov. If you can effectively fill two or three of the bottom six winger slots cheaply with these guys you are good.

On the back end I like both Akey and Wanner on the right side They could easily be your cheap bottom pairing defensemen when McDavid's deal kicks in. If you are really lucky a guy like Akey steps into the #4 slot and Wanner fills the bottom slot on the right. The left side is more up in the air, but cheap bottom pairing LHD are probably the easiest things to find form outside your organization.


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