ECQF: (1) Washington Capitals vs. (WC2) Toronto Maple Leafs

[biotk]

There is a 23 point gap between Washington and Toronto. Going back to 2006 these are the playoff series that had wider gaps:

2016 Wash (+24) beat Philly in 6 games
2014 Anaheim (+25) beat Dallas in 6 games
2014 Boston (+24) beat Detroit in 5 games
2010 Montreal (-33) beat Washington in 7 games
2009 Anaheim (-26) beat San Jose in 6 games
2008 Detroit (+24) beat Nash in 6 games
2006 Edmonton (-29) beat Detroit in 6 games.

Overall the much better teams won 4 series and lost 3, with a total of 23 wins and 19 losses. In none of those 7 series did the much weaker team get swept, and only one was beaten in 5 games.

Here are last 10 playoff sweeps that have occurred - and why I think there is very little chance Toronto will get swept:

Anaheim (+10) swept Winnipeg in 2015
Chicago (+2) swept Minnesota in 2015
Montreal (-1) swept Tampa Bay in 2014
San Jose (-2) swept Vancouver in 2013
Boston (-10) swept Pittsburgh in 2013
Los Angelas (-14) swept St Louis in 2012
Detroit (+5) swept Phoenix in 2011
Tampa Bay (-4) swept Washington in 2011
Boston (-3) swept Philly in 2011
Chicago (-1) swept San Jose in 2010

In 7 of the 10 sweeps, the sweeping team was worse in the regular season. I have mentioned before that I think this is due to the worse team playing the start of the series on the road, where a win in the first game provides a strong psychological advantage for the weaker team and a strong psychological disadvantage to the stronger team - which does not happen when it is the other way around - the stronger team is expecting to win the first game at home, and the weaker team is not concerned with the loss of the first game on the road.

I have also mentioned that since Toronto's last decent break (3 days off) they are 12-5-1 in 18 games. That includes the 1-3-0 that they finished off the season. Over those last 18 games, they played at 114 point/82 game pace and were better than the Caps over their final 18 games (11-6-1) and the only teams that I can think of to have a better record over their final 18 games is Edmonton (13-4-1) and Anaheim (13-2-3) (Montreal is also 12-5-1).

I think that those who assume that Toronto is going to get crushed in 4 or 5 games might be in for a surprise.

 

[mobilus]

Leafs in 6. Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition.

 

[ryan callahan]

Habs fan here. Don't underrate the Leafs too much. If their offense keeps being hot it will be a much much closer series than people think and maybe the Leafs could steal it in 7 if Andersen has a decent series.

 

[Thread The Needle]

Leafs in 6. Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition.

Only the pirates expect the Spanish Inquisition.

 

[Liferleafer]

Saying Caps in 5. Watching Toronto against Pittsburgh and Columbus, its hard to imagine them winning a playoff game, although i think they can steal one.I won't be suprised if the Caps choke in game 4 and 5 but then finally win game 6. Voted capsin 4 by mistake

Our starter was knocked out in the Pens game. And we lost 2 D as well as playing our backup against the Jackets in the 2nd of a back to back. Not that i think we will win, but using those to games as the metric isn't quite genuine.

 

[Portable Mink]

Shouldnt be close.
Hoping its not close.

Game one, Caps either blow them out of the water or its super close and the gap widens with each game.

Should be interesting to see what level the Caps can bring. At their best, it should be over quick.

 

[txpd]

I am entertained with this analysis that the Leafs defense corp is comparable to the Capitals group.

Also funny. Depth defenseman are depth defensemen. Nate Schmidt is top 4 on the Leafs. He lost his job to Shattenkirk.

 

[McHaNugYakEbNurDra]

 

[Grabovski]

Stats wise looks close, but we all know Washington is vastly greater than Toronto. That's why I always love cheering for the underdog, less pressure.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Leafs shouldn't even show up...They should just forfeit.

 

[Syckle78]

Awesome. Dave was the voice of the wings when I started following hockey. Happy he's able to get back in the booth.

 

[pocketrockets]

This is wonderful on a lot of levels!

 

[deadpenguin]

I am entertained with this analysis that the Leafs defense corp is comparable to the Capitals group.

Also funny. Depth defenseman are depth defensemen. Nate Schmidt is top 4 on the Leafs. He lost his job to Shattenkirk.

Definitely one of the most amusing ramblings of this thread

 

[ColePens]

If I was a Caps fan, i'd weirdly want this to go 6 games. You want to see Toronto's speed over a 6 game series, get the guys competing at a high level, and it will prepare you for rd 2. I know it sounds weird, but I think Toronto is a nice strong test to prepare for what's next in either CBJ/Pens.

Facing a little adversity early on wouldn't be a bad thing.

 

[Mitts Marner*]

Leafs in 6. Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition.

Matthews?

 

[cupcrazyman]

Golf season for the Leafs after game 6

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

If I was a Caps fan, i'd weirdly want this to go 6 games. You want to see Toronto's speed over a 6 game series, get the guys competing at a high level, and it will prepare you for rd 2. I know it sounds weird, but I think Toronto is a nice strong test to prepare for what's next in either CBJ/Pens.

Facing a little adversity early on wouldn't be a bad thing.

Caps shouldn't take any unnecessary risks, beat the Leafs as fast as possible and finish them off as soon as they have 3 wins. Teams that win in 4 or 5 games generally have better results in the following round than the teams that finish in 6 or 7.

I didn't like the fact that it took us an extra two games to finish off the Flyers last year. Meanwhile your team beat the Rangers in 5 and had ample time to prepare for the 2nd round clash. One series at a time my friend.

 

[Muggs]

Leafs shouldn't even show up...They should just forfeit.

Exactly. Why are they wasting our precious time. Caps have a Cup to win, sheeesh.

 

[ColePens]

Caps shouldn't take any unnecessary risks, beat the Leafs as fast as possible and finish them off as soon as they have 3 wins. Teams that win in 4 or 5 games generally have better results in the following round than the teams that finish in 6 or 7.

I didn't like the fact that it took us an extra two games to finish off the Flyers last year. Meanwhile your team beat the Rangers in 5 and had ample time to prepare for the 2nd round clash. One series at a time my friend.

Meh fair enough. I guess you are right. For the record, I have Caps in a sweep.

 

[ColePens]

Exactly. Why are they wasting our precious time. Caps have a Cup to win, sheeesh.

Leafs shouldn't even show up...They should just forfeit.

Don't really understand posts like this. Leafs are a clear dog in this fight. Doesn't mean it's over, but it's okay to admit you are going up against the one team that has probably the best chance of coming out of the East. We've all seen stranger things in the NHL Playoffs, but ultimately the cards are stacked against you guys. You are going up against guys who know/understand the playoffs and are hungry to get a monkey off their back.

Not an easy task.

 

[David71]

caps are too good all around. leafs will only win 1 but it will be a good experince for all the 1st year rookies on their team.

 

[Muggs]

Don't really understand posts like this. Leafs are a clear dog in this fight. Doesn't mean it's over, but it's okay to admit you are going up against the one team that has probably the best chance of coming out of the East. We've all seen stranger things in the NHL Playoffs, but ultimately the cards are stacked against you guys. You are going up against guys who know/understand the playoffs and are hungry to get a monkey off their back.

Not an easy task.

I picked Washington to win in 4 on poll, but I also know it's sports, anything can happen. I bet most Caps fans wouldn't even bet a substantial amount based on the teams recent history. It was a troll response aimed at troll posters.

I am a realist. Leafs D is poor and will likely get exposed. Kids will have to do yeoman's work to say the least...

 

[zeke]

I am entertained with this analysis that the Leafs defense corp is comparable to the Capitals group.

Also funny. Depth defenseman are depth defensemen. Nate Schmidt is top 4 on the Leafs. He lost his job to Shattenkirk.

and I am amused that you are amused.

 

[HarrisonFord]

Matthews?

I actually like this nickname for Matthews a lot

 

[crump]

I picked Washington to win in 4 on poll, but I also know it's sports, anything can happen. I bet most Caps fans wouldn't even bet a substantial amount based on the teams recent history. It was a troll response aimed at troll posters.

I am a realist. Leafs D is poor and will likely get exposed. Kids will have to do yeoman's work to say the least...

I picked Caps in 6 (but anything can happen with a hot goalie) maybe 4 or 5 if Andersen, Zaitsev, Polak are still injured. Only if Andersen is healthy will we steal a few. I think we will be in most games and it won't be as easy for the Caps as many believe. The last week or so was played on pure adrenaline with 3 back to backs in a short period of time. The last week is not typical of the Leafs game. I am looking forward to seeing which rookies step up to the physical challenge of a playoff series. Its all gravy for sure.