Series Talk: ECF: New York Rangers vs Florida Panthers *Game 1 Wednesday 5/22 @ 8pm ET*

[Clark Kellogg]

I really like Boyle, but hard to take Mollie seriously. She's a total stoner or just a puck bunny.

The last four shows and an appearance on another podcast she appeared to be fully baked.
The sad part is that she turned herself into a passenger.

 

[bhamill]

No he won't. He won't be on the ice with Bennett and Tkachuk. They won't care what he does otherwise. There are no deterrents. If Rempe fights some goon, so what.

Rempe wasn't shy to pay CAR's goalie a visit after Svech ran into Igor. Didn't see that happen again... That's a page out of the Joey Kucor Big Book of Enforcing. Someone takes a run at a star player you don't just fight a goon, you send a message that THEIR stars are fair game as well. THAT is the only way you get deterrence for that shit.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

The last four shows and an appearance on another podcast she appeared to be fully baked.
The sad part is that she turned herself into a passenger.

Let her blaze.

 

[Boris Zubov]

The last four shows and an appearance on another podcast she appeared to be fully baked.
The sad part is that she turned herself into a passenger.

I watched my first episode maybe 2 weeks ago & I was really surprised this was her personality, because I do think her writing is very professional.

 

[Brutananadilewski]

The team won the President's Trophy. Kreider and Mika had moments this season that made me tear my hair out (Mika dropping his stick in OT against the Sharks, wtf was that?) but they were criticized far to harshly imo. It's not like these are guys trying to prove themselves to our fanbase. They have a lifetime of good play on this team to fall back on, and now they are ripping it up in the playoffs again.

How long did Zibs go without scoring a goal, 5v5? How many "bets" were made with Zibs one-timing the puck wide? The odd man rushes that turned to crap? The calls of Laf to go on the PP?

Both statements can be true: they found a step in the playoffs, they were behind a step this regular season.

 

[LOFIN]

The team won the President's Trophy. Kreider and Mika had moments this season that made me tear my hair out (Mika dropping his stick in OT against the Sharks, wtf was that?) but they were criticized far to harshly imo. It's not like these are guys trying to prove themselves to our fanbase. They have a lifetime of good play on this team to fall back on, and now they are ripping it up in the playoffs again.

Disagreed. They absolutely deserved every bit of criticism and then some. Especially Zibanejad, he was atrocious.

Also, they deserve a ton of credit on how they are playing right now. And I think we all prefer it this way around, step up in the playoffs.

 

[chosen]

Well, for starters, I don't think that series was that lopsided.

The Hurricanes only had an xG advantage of 14.47-13.49 at 5v5 in the series. Considering that Carolina more or less specializes in the current publicly available analytics, I would say we played absolutely fantastic.

My stance on goaltending has always been that it's exceedingly important to get good goaltending in the playoffs, but that a cavalcade of bad goaltenders have gotten hot for the 24 or so games.

More bad ones have Cups than elite ones.

Would I play the way we do without Shesterkin? No, but if we didn't have him, we wouldn't play this way. It's a non-starter.

This is where I disagree, and it's whatever, because you know what I think about the eye test.

But just in my opinion, I don't think Kakko produces all these great chances like people say. I think it's just more frustrating and more memorable when he or one of his linemates shank a chance, because he never scores.

The Panarin-Lafreniere-Trocheck line biffs a good chance every other shift. They generate more, they blow more, they score more.

Do you disagree that a swap of goalies is either a Carolina sweep or a win in 5?

Does this mean that the analytics discussed here exclude goaltending? If so there remains a gaping hole in this set of analytics.

 

[bhamill]

And if he's going to be a 3B/4A, he's probably worth more in a trade than he is on this roster with his qualifying offer.

His QO is only 2.4m. You aren't going to get many quality 3rd liners, which he is, with upside, which he has, for less than that. His cap hit is NOT the issue.

 

[chosen]

Cuylle Wenny Vesey would be a terrible line.

Rempe Goodrow Kakko would actually score goals.

Each of those lines would be incredibly lucky to get 5 goals total in a 7-game series. 3 would probably be the over-under.

 

[JohnC]

Zibanejad earned every bit of criticism he got this year. His season reminded me of Brad Richards during the 2013 lockout season.

He was abysmal.

 

[Boris Zubov]

Do you disagree that a swap of goalies is either a Carolina sweep or a win in 5?

Does this mean that the analytics discussed here exclude goaltending? If so there remains a gaping hole in this set of analytics.

I disagree. Machinehead posted the ex goals 5v5 & they were basically a dead heat.

Our special teams won the series, pure & simple.

 

[chosen]

We really need to get him unstrapped from the Lindenberg.

His mobility is sub-par for him, especially on offense.

I disagree. Machinehead posted the ex goals 5v5 & they were basically a dead heat.

Our special teams won the series, pure & simple.

That's not my point. Shesty was stopping everything while the other guy was giving up cheapies.

 

[Machinehead]

Do you disagree that a swap of goalies is either a Carolina sweep or a win in 5?

Couldn't disagree more.

Carolina probably wins but it goes 6 or 7.

Anderson gave up one bad goal (albeit at an inopportune time, sure). The Rangers scored a half a goal above expected in the series.

The Hurricanes scored just under 3 below expected. So, Igor was very good, and 3 makes a difference in a tight series, but it was a tight series.

This was not an Igor heist at all.

If you wanna see a heist, not getting swept by Jersey last year was a heist. Beating Pittsburgh in 2022 was an affront to God. Pittsburgh literally had a double-digit edge in expected goals.

This wasn't it.

Does this mean that the analytics discussed here exclude goaltending? If so there remains a gaping hole in this set of analytics.

Of course analytics exclude goaltending.

Why would you include goaltending in stats that are mostly based on shooting? It's like using hitting in your pitching stats.

It's common knowledge that goaltending can close gaps between teams in analytics output, although 1) I wouldn't bet my house on it and not just improve the roster if I can, and 2) that didn't happen in this series.

 

[LOFIN]

I disagree. Machinehead posted the ex goals 5v5 & they were basically a dead heat.

Our special teams won the series, pure & simple.

 

[Clark Kellogg]

Rare Chris Drury Siting:

 

[Machinehead]

Not to mention Skjei's winner in game 4 was softer than baby shit.

Igor was great but didn't steal the series.

Both of those can be true.

 

[Clark Kellogg]

 

[chosen]

Couldn't disagree more.

Carolina probably wins but it goes 6 or 7.

Anderson gave up one bad goal (albeit at an inopportune time, sure). The Rangers scored a half a goal above expected in the series.

The Hurricanes scored just under 3 below expected. So, Igor was very good, and 3 makes a difference in a tight series, but it was a tight series.

This was not an Igor heist at all.

If you wanna see a heist, not getting swept by Jersey last year was a heist. Beating Pittsburgh in 2022 was an affront to God. Pittsburgh literally had a double-digit edge in expected goals.

This wasn't it.

Of course analytics exclude goaltending.

Why would you include goaltending in stats that are mostly based on shooting? It's like using hitting in your pitching stats.

It's common knowledge that goaltending can close gaps between teams in analytics output, although 1) I wouldn't bet my house on it and not just improve the roster if I can, and 2) that didn't happen in this series.

I vehemently disagree. It's not just about a single weak goal. You're ignoring how many great stops and how many shots Shesty faced. If Shesty faced the Rangers, you believe Johnsen would have kept the Rangers in it with those high quality of shots and the barrage against him?

I definitely don't.

There's a reason Carolina is looking to get rid of Andersen.

Analytics, by ignoring goaltending can't be totally accurate.

Eventually there will be an incorporation of goaltending into a set of analytics.

This goes back to a discussion I had with you 3 or 4 years ago where I maintained that analytics would still change greatly in the years to come, that you disagreed with.

 

[chosen]

Not to mention Skjei's winner in game 4 was softer than baby shit.

Igor was great but didn't steal the series.

Both of those can be true.

It's not about him stealing. It's about how would Andersen have fared as the Ranger goaltender in the series while Shesty backstopped Carolina.

Analytics don't address that.

 

[Machinehead]

It's not about him stealing. It's about how would Andersen have fared as the Ranger goaltender in the series while Shesty backstopped Carolina.

Analytics don't address that.

Ok. They don't address my love life either.

 

[Machinehead]

The one thing I'm concerned about is that I still think it's possible to turn off this Rangers team offensively with the right scheme.

Washington, I thought, did a pretty good job with us. They just have no talent and couldn't get goals of their own.

Carolina didn't care. Stubborn as always, they just did their thing.

Our analytics tend to be worse against bad teams. I think it's because 1) they look at the W-L records and immediately come in with that defensive mindset and 2) I don't think we care. If we win because we scored twice on the powerplay, then fine. Our energy has been great and I think saving it was clearly a priority. We didn't get dragged into rock fights in the regular season. It's doubly impressive that we still secured home ice while taking a measured approach. Game 82, we played Ottawa with a chance to clinch home ice. We usually suck against Ottawa. We beat the hair off their ass. That's that Rangers.

I worry that Florida can shut us down if they really try to. If they try to trade with us, they're gonna lose like Carolina did.

 

[Clark Kellogg]

 

[DanielBrassard]

Well, for starters, I don't think that series was that lopsided.

The Hurricanes only had an xG advantage of 14.47-13.49 at 5v5 in the series. Considering that Carolina more or less specializes in the current publicly available analytics, I would say we played absolutely fantastic.

My stance on goaltending has always been that it's exceedingly important to get good goaltending in the playoffs, but that a cavalcade of bad goaltenders have gotten hot for the 24 or so games.

More bad ones have Cups than elite ones.

Would I play the way we do without Shesterkin? No, but if we didn't have him, we wouldn't play this way. It's a non-starter.

This is where I disagree, and it's whatever, because you know what I think about the eye test.

But just in my opinion, I don't think Kakko produces all these great chances like people say. I think it's just more frustrating and more memorable when he or one of his linemates shank a chance, because he never scores.

The Panarin-Lafreniere-Trocheck line biffs a good chance every other shift. They generate more, they blow more, they score more.

Kakko doesn’t generate that many scoring chances for himself or his linemates. There’s numbers to back that up it’s not just an opinion. People just remember all the chances that are flubbed because of how infrequent they are. I like Kakko and I actually like his play style because he’s so,some you can trust defensively. And it’s nice that he can wheel around the offensive zone and maintain possession. But he is not creating that many scoring chances.

 

[Atax]

Tired of waiting.

 

[Machinehead]

Tired of waiting.

I'm not. As I get older, I love the time off.

Not so much in the regular season, but this shit is a workout in the playoffs.