Post-Game Talk: East, more like LEast amirite? Jets win 3-1, Pavelec hits century mark for wins.

[CorgisPer60]

Why, oh why does my computer have to be broken?This was one game I really want to watch.

 

[ICdave]

Coach Noel post-game audio - Assessment of the game. Were the sacrifices the difference? Will it mean something for the team that Scheifele and Kane broke slumps? Juggling the lines in the 3rd period. Price to pay to win games. Thoughts on Trouba. Playing in the East.

To listen click here.

 

[Positive]

Huh, last year we loved James Wright. He was a pet project like Peluso/Ellerby. Am I the only one who remembers all the posts where people extolled him?

 

[Blue Shakehead]

Stuart can defend okay but he gets lost in his d-zone a lot, loses his man, his poke checking is just sad, no footspeed to keep up, and is in the NHL top 10 worst d-men for succeeding in zone exits, which is why he tends to be one of the most out shot D in the league...

Wait, zone exits don't come from NHL data, so you're saying you manually tracked every zone exit from every defenceman in the league in every single game, compiled a list and Stuart was in the bottom 10? I'd love to see this list.

 

[pcanuck]

juggle the lines more, I'd love to see Kane in net instead of pavs or put bigger buff in there

 

[garret9]

Huh, last year we loved James Wright. He was a pet project like Peluso/Ellerby. Am I the only one who remembers all the posts where people extolled him?

What I said was he's good defensively and you can see it in the numbers with his shot repression with really low against numbers (yes you can see defensive acumen in Corsi). He's terrible offensively and can't promote much chances. Overall though I claimed an upgrade on Tanner Glass.

I still hold that opinion. He's a fourth liner on a fourth line and I'm fine with that. I think he sometimes gets too many minutes and Frolik probably is a better PKer but meh.

 

[Positive]

What I said was he's good defensively and you can see it in the numbers with his shot repression with really low against numbers (yes you can see defensive acumen in Corsi). He's terrible offensively and can't promote much chances. Overall though I claimed an upgrade on Tanner Glass.

I still hold that opinion. He's a fourth liner on a fourth line and I'm fine with that. I think he sometimes gets too many minutes and Frolik probably is a better PKer but meh.

I don't think he's deserves as much heat as he gets. He's a 4th liner on the 4th line. He was well-liked here last year but somehow got into the doghouse amongst this community before the season even started.

IMHO the mob sort of needed a punching bag and picked Wright. Also wanted another way to damn Noel. i.e. 'Look how incompetent Noel is by playing a guy like Wright'.

 

[wilty00]

Huh, last year we loved James Wright. He was a pet project like Peluso/Ellerby. Am I the only one who remembers all the posts where people extolled him?

That's sortof what I was referring to earlier in the thread. When we first picked him up he was actually somewhat of a force out there, just couldn't finish on the chances he was creating for various reasons. For once the change in tone around here is not just a cause cause of overzealous fandom, he's just not even close to the player he was for us in his first 15-20 last season and everybody can see it (both on the ice and in his stats).

I don't know of many NHL players who can play 26 games, not put up a single point, and have people defend him saying "oh but he's brilliant at getting in passing lanes" as if that's something that justifies having him on an NHL roster. I get that he's a defensively responsible player and does a half decent job at killing penalties but again... how many times do you see a guy just so horrendously inept at offense who's not out there for the sole purpose of breaking faces keep an every day job in the NHL? Especially with the carousel of wingers we've had coming in and out on the bottom two lines and HE is the one who has played in all 26 games?

 

[garret9]

Wait, zone exits don't come from NHL data, so you're saying you manually tracked every zone exit from every defenceman in the league in every single game, compiled a list and Stuart was in the bottom 10? I'd love to see this list.

I'm one of many on the project. Corey Sznajder and Eric Tulsky are the main heads.

We have multiple people doing the same game who come from each fanbase so that we can remove scorer bias.

Some of the early work was published on Hockey Prospectus, but the finished product comes out at the next SLOAN. It's a sister project of the Zone Entry stuff the same group published at last SLOAN.

EDIT: PS Corey actually tracked on his own EVERY NHL game last season... Guy is nuts.

 

[blueandgoldguy]

Jets with the solid road effort for the win.

Leafs get blown out 6-0.

Overall, a great night to be Jets fan.

 

[Tarks]

Jets with the solid road effort for the win.

Leafs get blown out 6-0.

Overall, a great night to be Jets fan.

The Canucks need to lose. Then I'm satisfied!

 

[scelaton]

I have seriously never been more infuriated with a Noel move. Up 2-0? Juggles every line. There's a shining example of how a coach can lose a hockey game. He's lucky he didn't.

Did you see Noel's post game? We was asked why he was juggling the lines. Injuries was not the reason, sadly.

Ellerby was pretty consistently a '+' in shot metrics until the last two games.

Now he's been severely minus.

Hmmm... What changed for Ellerby two games ago?

I thought for a minute that the straw man was a caricature of Pavs in a hat, with an enlarged 5-hole. [edit]

Seriously guys, timing is everything and tonight is not the time to crap on Stuart, Noel or whoever your favourite target is.
FWIW, I thought Stuart had one of his better games and, aside from a frightening loss of confidence for 10 minutes of the third, it was a damn fine game by the whole team, minus LLW (which makes it even more impressive).

 

[StronGeer]

Please, I would like to see at least two of the following MIA players score a goal. Not just register an assist/secondary assist, or a deflection off their butt, but two genuine off-the-tape goals:

Kane
Wheeler
Setoguchi
Scheifele

Just remembered this from the GDT and wanted to say thanks!

 

[JC Numminen]

******* sportscenter
Leaf highlights
Oilers highlights
Canuck highlights of a game thats not over
Sens injury
Erat wants out
Payton manning
....... No jets

 

[Andy6]

I also don't judge just by Corsi but:
* scoring chances +/-
* zone exits success/fails
* unforced possession loses in the d-zone relative to number of puck possessions
* etc.

EDIT: oh ya and my eyes

I don't think that's what you want to say, though. If you're combining all those things, then it's hard not to wonder if what's really going on is that you have an intuitive belief about how good a player is, look to Corsi and if it doesn't match what your "eyes" tell you, proceed to toss all these other ingredients into the mix until the concoction matches what your eyes are seeing. This sounds like a jerry-built system designed to paper over intuitions with numbers. I'm not saying that I'm not impressed with your analyses, because in fact I am, but from a rhetorical or forensic point of view (and as a one-time logic prof) I would stand my ground with one type of quantitative analysis rather than trying to oblige my opponents by saying that, well, if the one form of analysis doesn't work out (by what standard? why not just use that standard?) then we can try adding in some other ones until the numerical shoe stops pinching the observational/intuitional foot.

Surely part of the premise of quantitative analysis has to be that our observations can be wrong: a player that looks good can in fact be bad, and vice versa. So how can observation play any part in evaluating a player? Ideally, we'd stop watching games altogether, I think, since they would just serve to mislead us -- unless we could train ourselves to "see" Corsi. I hope that this effort succeeds as it would save me a lot on GameCentre.

 

[Positive]

Just remembered this from the GDT and wanted to say thanks!

They must read these boards! All I had to do was say 'please'.

edit: (Except for Wheeler, guess he doesn't read here. Though he did have a good chance. I'm not sure if I've ever seen him score on that wide-drive and cut to the net.)

edit again: Actually this is the last time I remember it happening:

 

[allan5oh]

If you eliminate the Chicago games this month, we're having a pretty damn good month.

 

[citizenmundane]

Interesting.

Ellerby was pretty consistently a '+' in shot metrics until the last two games.

Now he's been severely minus.

Hmmm... What changed for Ellerby two games ago?

Stewy is rubbing off on him... ewww... get him a kleenex.

 

[garret9]

@scelaton:

Sorry. I wasn't trying to poop on Stuart, but rather noting a very obvious pattern, that whomever is paired with Stuart tends to have all their numbers plummet hard and fast.

I saw the pattern; I noticed that two other separate individuals I know and respect noticed the pattern; I tweeted it; some of us discussed it; so I brought it here.

 

[ICdave]

Game recaps, post-game audio, video highlights and the NHL.com 3 Stars of the night.

For above click here.

 

[Avocado Coolranch]

That's sortof what I was referring to earlier in the thread. When we first picked him up he was actually somewhat of a force out there, just couldn't finish on the chances he was creating for various reasons. For once the change in tone around here is not just a cause cause of overzealous fandom, he's just not even close to the player he was for us in his first 15-20 last season and everybody can see it (both on the ice and in his stats).

I don't know of many NHL players who can play 26 games, not put up a single point, and have people defend him saying "oh but he's brilliant at getting in passing lanes" as if that's something that justifies having him on an NHL roster. I get that he's a defensively responsible player and does a half decent job at killing penalties but again... how many times do you see a guy just so horrendously inept at offense who's not out there for the sole purpose of breaking faces keep an every day job in the NHL? Especially with the carousel of wingers we've had coming in and out on the bottom two lines and HE is the one who has played in all 26 games?

The season the Jets picked up Wright, he was normally put on the third line with Antropov/Wellwood. I would recall the nice passes Antropov would feed Wright and he would fail to put them in. That's why I didn't understand the whole "put Wright on the second line with Kane" bit that people were saying at the time. This guy was offensively inept back then and it is more glaringly clear now with less talented linemates.

With that being said, I could care less who is on the fourth line as long as you can get the puck out of your own end and not get hemmed in your own zone. So far, the TWT line has been okay with that and are able to cycle the puck in the offensive zone at times. So I don't see a crucial need to change the fourth line as much as others do.

 

[scelaton]

@scelaton:

Sorry. I wasn't trying to poop on Stuart, but rather noting a very obvious pattern, that whomever is paired with Stuart tends to have all their numbers plummet hard and fast.

I saw the pattern; I noticed that two other separate individuals I know and respect noticed the pattern; I tweeted it; some of us discussed it; so I brought it here.

No problem.
I think you know that, in general, I agree with your analysis of Stuart and he (along with Pavs) is a prime example of where your (and others') quantitative analysis has given the lie to the 'eye test'. But from an educational and conversational perspective, it's important IMO to give credit to these players where credit is due, so as to avoid any perception of bias. There are a few posters here who are so obsessed with their anti-XYZ views that they alienate even those of us who might agree in principle with them. No one makes friends or influences people that way.

 

[Snot Rocket]

Where's your cowbell NOW, tough guy!?

Jebus H Cripsy...that mother ****ing bell was driving me bonkers...all I could hear was that bell. If I was in the seat next to the guy, even as a homer I would have shoved that thing so far up his backside his uvula would be ringing the bell.

Oh and great slump buster, and there is the release from Mark that we know he has.

Big win, 5 more.

 

[bazaaa*]

Huh, last year we loved James Wright. He was a pet project like Peluso/Ellerby. Am I the only one who remembers all the posts where people extolled him?

Wright sucks, and I still think it's funny everyone loved him so much.
Same guys that were happy Tangradi was back for the third line. 3pts in 22 games. Any day now right guys? Advanced stats say so.

 

[JetsFan815]

Byfuglien might be a top 10 defenseman so far this year. The scary part? Enstrom has been better despite the lack of points. When he had 3 Devils converge on him and he just slides the puck up the boards on his backhand, I was just in awe. That's a player who thinks the game at an elite level.

But... but.... but.... Enstrom is small, doesn't hit, doesn't fight... and is not fit for the "big western conference".... trade that man