Confirmed with Link: Ducks re-sign Trevor Zegras (3 years, $5.75M AAV)

[Hamilton Bulldogs]

Not as negative as some towards CTP, although Sicard's take re Zegras negotiations was weak. They are too focused on possession metrics for my taste because they just cite them as evidence with no context. I am intrigued by analytics, but Rudolph constantly saying that face offs are meaningless is irritating. Anyone who watched Kesler constantly winning D zone draws in close games will probably agree with me.

Faceoffs were a huge reason why the Ducks were so successful in the Kesler years.

Vermette and Kesler made life so easy for the team.

 

[robbieboy3686]

Not as negative as some towards CTP, although Sicard's take re Zegras negotiations was weak. They are too focused on possession metrics for my taste because they just cite them as evidence with no context. I am intrigued by analytics, but Rudolph constantly saying that face offs are meaningless is irritating. Anyone who watched Kesler constantly winning D zone draws in close games will probably agree with me.

Rudolph also hated deslauries, I watch their streams but they get a lot wrong and are pretty smug about it too.

 

[Ducks DVM]

I would like to know more.

Well, you could boil down events that occur off of faceoffs for particular players vs particular players in particular situations. Does Ovechkin score more on PP faceoff wins vs faceoff losses, etc. Ditto for top defensive player on the ice in the same circumstances. Right side vs left side for certain players. 1st line players vs 4th line players vs shutdown players, etc. Nobody does that. It’s possible it’s not possible to parse that data out. But you’d need to be that granular for the statistics to matter.

 

[Rybread86]

...that they cannot meaningfully separate the individual from the team.

Agreed. In a sport like baseball, fancy stats are very good at describing the player. You arent as reliant on your teammates for your stats. In more team centric sports like hockey, much harder to separate the 2.

They can help tell a story, but there are a lot of other factors you have to take into consideration.

Its the main reason I hate +/-. Sure, for some guys it makes sense, but when you have a guy like Fowler who is playing #1 minutes, matched up against other teams top everything and is carrying a defense, it doesnt say as much about him as it does the state of the D or the team in general.

 

[anezthes]

Well, you could boil down events that occur off of faceoffs for particular players vs particular players in particular situations. Does Ovechkin score more on PP faceoff wins vs faceoff losses, etc. Ditto for top defensive player on the ice in the same circumstances. Right side vs left side for certain players. 1st line players vs 4th line players vs shutdown players, etc. Nobody does that. It’s possible it’s not possible to parse that data out. But you’d need to be that granular for the statistics to matter.

Ah, you're talking about faceoffs? I was speaking more in general terms with regards to advanced stats. My bad.

 

[Ducks DVM]

Ah, you're talking about faceoffs? I was speaking more in general terms with regards to advanced stats. My bad.

I was just using that as an example. I think that every bit of advanced stats (and many to most stats in general) are less valuable the less focused they are. Small, meaningful findinngs can be masked by a lot of chaff to where it looks like there’s no statistical difference.

 

[DavidBL]

Everyone remember when shot types didn't matter and it was all just noise. Corsi was God and all that.

 

[Kariya 9]

Not as negative as some towards CTP, although Sicard's take re Zegras negotiations was weak. They are too focused on possession metrics for my taste because they just cite them as evidence with no context. I am intrigued by analytics, but Rudolph constantly saying that face offs are meaningless is irritating. Anyone who watched Kesler constantly winning D zone draws in close games will probably agree with me.

Yeah they take data from the analytics and use it to profess some supposedly big discovery about the game. “Face offs don’t matter” is definitely one of those. Now maybe you could say the don’t matter as much as some people think they do, that it has less impact on the game than a lot of more traditional hockey minds may think. Sure, I could see that being the case. But a defensive zone draw on the PK in playoff overtime: that matters.

 

[FiveHoleTickler]

Yeah they take data from the analytics and use it to profess some supposedly big discovery about the game. “Face offs don’t matter” is definitely one of those. Now maybe you could say the don’t matter as much as some people think they do, that it has less impact on the game than a lot of more traditional hockey minds may think. Sure, I could see that being the case. But a defensive zone draw on the PK in playoff overtime: that matters.

They're desperate for clicks so they speak in absolutes rather than growing a meaningful audience through conveying thoughtful perspective.

Sicard is arrogant and smug, but Jake is simply stupid and almost always completely misinformed.

 

[Duck Off]

Can't argue with the dollar amount, but I disagree with the decision to bridge Z. I think it's a significant mistake personally.

I was listening to something where Piere was talking about the contract. He said his understanding is Zegras's camp was open to a long-term deal, but Verbeek was pretty insistent about a bridge. I understand the desire to see him be a more complete player, but if his offensive game takes another step, he's easily worth that 7-8 million per season. Just seems like an odd time to not take that risk.

 

[Leonardo87]

Can't argue with the dollar amount, but I disagree with the decision to bridge Z. I think it's a significant mistake personally.

Leo throws a monkey wrench into this. What if he is the 1C in the near future? It gives Verbeek 3 years to see. Plus, Zegras got a nice contract so there won’t be any animosity towards negotiations in the future.

 

[DavidBL]

Can't argue with the dollar amount, but I disagree with the decision to bridge Z. I think it's a significant mistake personally.

I was listening to something where Piere was talking about the contract. He said his understanding is Zegras's camp was open to a long-term deal, but Verbeek was pretty insistent about a bridge. I understand the desire to see him be a more complete player, but if his offensive game takes another step, he's easily worth that 7-8 million per season. Just seems like an odd time to not take that risk.

I'll be honest I'm much more comfortable giving Z an 8 year deal at 25 than at 30.

 

[BiolaRunner]

The Ducks Nation facebook group is just as bad. You’d think Fowler was an AHL D-Man that killed your kids listening to some of those idiots.

See the tire fire in Ducks Nation after Leo went down? Holy shit, that Brandon guy is an absolute idiot

 

[ducks8]

See the tire fire in Ducks Nation after Leo went down? Holy shit, that Brandon guy is an absolute idiot

Brandon swore up and down Leo tore his ACL. Dude acts likes Leo is the worst skater in league. I have never seen anyone route for a player to bust as much as he does, for Leo.

Same dude said Zegras should just take whatever the ducks offered him and called him a headache. He'd trade him in a heart beat haha

 

[BiolaRunner]

Brandon swore up and down Leo tore his ACL. Dude acts likes Leo is the worst skater in league. I have never seen anyone route for a player to bust as much as he does, for Leo.

Same dude said Zegras should just take whatever the ducks offered him and called him a headache. He'd trade him in a heart beat haha

He lost an edge. Clearly he's a bad skater.

Teemu has lost an edge. I asked if that made him a bad skater. He never replied.

He said that there were players in camp still in juniors that didn't get injured so clearly they are better than Carlson and Leo is a bust

 

[ducks8]

He lost an edge. Clearly he's a bad skater.

Teemu has lost an edge. I asked if that made him a bad skater. He never replied.

He said that there were players in camp still in juniors that didn't get injured so clearly they are better than Carlson and Leo is a bust

I made that post about Leo's injury not being as serious as a troll post towards him. I asked him if he could provide evidence of Leo tearing his acl, nothing

He legit would have traded both Zegras and Drysdale cause they didn't accept the first offer the ducks gave them. He has no grasp of anything really. I look forward to his crap takes though. Bring lots of entertainment

 

[Leonardo87]

Brandon swore up and down Leo tore his ACL. Dude acts likes Leo is the worst skater in league. I have never seen anyone route for a player to bust as much as he does, for Leo.

Same dude said Zegras should just take whatever the ducks offered him and called him a headache. He'd trade him in a heart beat haha

We try and keep the toxicity at bay here. Criticism is one thing about a player, but some people cross the line to troll. Dealing with a lot of this with Lafreniere now.

If this place turns into anything like those places, then we have failed. Quite frankly, am a little embarrassed to have to read the trolling of "Zegras is going to the Rangers".

 

[BiolaRunner]

I made that post about Leo's injury not being as serious as a troll post towards him. I asked him if he could provide evidence of Leo tearing his acl, nothing

He legit would have traded both Zegras and Drysdale cause they didn't accept the first offer the ducks gave them. He has no grasp of anything really. I look forward to his crap takes though. Bring lots of entertainment

But we are fake Ducks fans that are only weekend warriors that know nothing about hockey.

 

[ducks8]

We try and keep the toxicity at bay here. Criticism is one thing about a player, but some people cross the line to troll. Dealing with a lot of this with Lafreniere now.

If this place turns into anything like those places, then we have failed. Quite frankly, am a little embarrassed to have to read the trolling of "Zegras is going to the Rangers".

And you all honestly do a good job and keeping that shit a bay. We know it isn't an easy gig for all you mods here

 

[KelVarnsen]

Brandon swore up and down Leo tore his ACL. Dude acts likes Leo is the worst skater in league. I have never seen anyone route for a player to bust as much as he does, for Leo.

Same dude said Zegras should just take whatever the ducks offered him and called him a headache. He'd trade him in a heart beat haha

That Brandon dude is wild!

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Agreed. In a sport like baseball, fancy stats are very good at describing the player. You arent as reliant on your teammates for your stats. In more team centric sports like hockey, much harder to separate the 2.

They can help tell a story, but there are a lot of other factors you have to take into consideration.

Its the main reason I hate +/-. Sure, for some guys it makes sense, but when you have a guy like Fowler who is playing #1 minutes, matched up against other teams top everything and is carrying a defense, it doesnt say as much about him as it does the state of the D or the team in general.

I don't mind +/- stats. Like other stats, you need context and that's helped out with other stats or looking at the team's +/-. For example, when we drafted Theodore in 2013, everyone was saying how terrible a defenseman he was due to his D-1 season +/- was -36 and D+0 season +/- was -24. If you looked at the team's +/-, then you realize the whole team was just terrible. In Theodore's D+1, he was a +19, when the team talent had improved.

As for Fowler and plus/minus, you need added context. 2021-22, he was was -9 rating, but his dance partner was +0 rating in Manson. Lindholm was +0 rating while his dance partner, rookie Drysdale, was a -26 rating. The next year, without a stay-at-home D with Fowler, and Fowler was a -23. Lindholm and Manson are shutdown type d-men and Fowler isn't on their level. Fowler did reach career highs in scoring in both those seasons, though.

On a tangent of needing context, the Athletic's adv stat guru Dom L is applying his info as a blanket rather than adding the context of team play. Theodore is an example presented above and Lindholm is an example presented recently as a FA acquisition. Lindholm tilted the ice on a bad Ducks' team (while carrying rookie Drysdale), but many couldn't understand Lindholm was doing that. Then Lindholm on a more talented team with Boston and Lindholm's tilting of the ice becomes easily recognizable. Lindholm is playing the same way defensively.

Fowler and Theodore as similar such that if you place them in a less defensively supported team, then their plus/minus will be in the negative. But if placed on a more talented team, then their plus/minus is positive as their offense isn't negated by bad defense.

Plus/minus is a good barometer of players on the field/ice when the game is fluid such as hockey and basketball, which the latter has added onto their ESPN stats page. Baseball is a static game, where the events can be isolated to be broken down with respect to opportunity and player's talent.

 

[Deuce22]

I don't mind +/- stats. Like other stats, you need context and that's helped out with other stats or looking at the team's +/-. For example, when we drafted Theodore in 2013, everyone was saying how terrible a defenseman he was due to his D-1 season +/- was -36 and D+0 season +/- was -24. If you looked at the team's +/-, then you realize the whole team was just terrible. In Theodore's D+1, he was a +19, when the team talent had improved.

As for Fowler and plus/minus, you need added context. 2021-22, he was was -9 rating, but his dance partner was +0 rating in Manson. Lindholm was +0 rating while his dance partner, rookie Drysdale, was a -26 rating. The next year, without a stay-at-home D with Fowler, and Fowler was a -23. Lindholm and Manson are shutdown type d-men and Fowler isn't on their level. Fowler did reach career highs in scoring in both those seasons, though.

On a tangent of needing context, the Athletic's adv stat guru Dom L is applying his info as a blanket rather than adding the context of team play. Theodore is an example presented above and Lindholm is an example presented recently as a FA acquisition. Lindholm tilted the ice on a bad Ducks' team (while carrying rookie Drysdale), but many couldn't understand Lindholm was doing that. Then Lindholm on a more talented team with Boston and Lindholm's tilting of the ice becomes easily recognizable. Lindholm is playing the same way defensively.

Fowler and Theodore as similar such that if you place them in a less defensively supported team, then their plus/minus will be in the negative. But if placed on a more talented team, then their plus/minus is positive as their offense isn't negated by bad defense.

Plus/minus is a good barometer of players on the field/ice when the game is fluid such as hockey and basketball, which the latter has added onto their ESPN stats page. Baseball is a static game, where the events can be isolated to be broken down with respect to opportunity and player's talent.

+/- is way too simplistic for me. Things that should be taken into account but aren't include:

-Cailber of competition. Who is on the ice with you and against you.
-Where shift changes occur (more in your own zone or more in the offensive zone).
-Where player is on the ice. If someone is just coming off the bench when the goal is scored, he
gets the same minus (or plus) as the guy who is in the center of the action.
-Goalie performance. A player could me out there when his team is getting buried but if the goalie is making all the saves, his +/- will be OK. Or vice versa.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

+/- is way too simplistic for me. Things that should be taken into account but aren't include:

-Cailber of competition. Who is on the ice with you and against you.
-Where shift changes occur (more in your own zone or more in the offensive zone).
-Where player is on the ice. If someone is just coming off the bench when the goal is scored, he
gets the same minus (or plus) as the guy who is in the center of the action.
-Goalie performance. A player could me out there when his team is getting buried but if the goalie is making all the saves, his +/- will be OK. Or vice versa.

Again, plus/minus is helpful with context, just like any other stat in a fluid sport. How many times does one have to continually share this thought as well as examples to have it always ignored when responding?

 

[Deuce22]

Again, plus/minus is helpful with context, just like any other stat in a fluid sport. How many times does one have to continually share this thought as well as examples to have it always ignored when responding?

Because the context is rarely mentioned when people cite +/-.

 

[JAHV]

Again, plus/minus is helpful with context, just like any other stat in a fluid sport. How many times does one have to continually share this thought as well as examples to have it always ignored when responding?

Unlike other stats, some of which are useful on their own (goals, time on ice) and some of which have context baked in (expected goal percentage, zone-adjusted shot share), I would argue that +/- is fairly useless WITHOUT context. If you add in all of the other stuff, sure, it can be helpful. But I don't think it tells you a lot about a player without the context, which is why it gets largely ignored. We have other stats that give us similar information with a bit more context already included.