Proposal: Ducks/Avs/Isles

[Jared Dunn]

I know retention has a cost to it in itself but to me it just doesn't compute how even Gibson at 3.2 would be worth a 1st round pick. Even fully expecting him to be better on another team and knowing he's been shelled for years in Anaheim he's got a somewhat long streak of subpar seasons behind him. It almost feels like if Gibson is leaving Anaheim they're going to be doing it for the player.

EDIT: I know OP value is not Gibson = 1st round pick and there's more moving parts just speaking more generally, feel like if he goes it just ends up Gibson @50% for a 2nd or something

 

[biturbo19]

The Ducks ownership apparently takes issue with spending money off the roster. They seemed willing to spend right up to the cap during the last contention window, sort of putting those "internal budget" talks to rest. But there was some comment from Bob Murray towards the end of tenure about the owners being discontent with spending so much on players who aren't on the active roster. It was more an issue of long term injuries at the time but I would assume the same would apply to all forms of "dead money". So while I can understand that some retention would be necessary, I can't see the Ducks eating a full 50% for another two years, nearly 10M on top of what they need to spend on a replacement. That's why I had another team taking some of that sting in return for a pick, but I also had the Isles dumping significant cap for next year to perhaps try and offer them some additional incentive.

Fair enough, and i get that this is an issue with the Ducks. It's still just a sticking point for the Islanders i'd think, to tie that slot up on retaining just 17% or whatever, for multiple years. Perhaps the solution would actually be to just have the Isles retaining more of the cap, in exchange for a little additional sweetener of some sort? Though they're tight enough to the cap that it'd probably require significant reworking of the rest of the cap moving around in the deal.

 

[Shane Diesel]

The Ducks have been garbage that entire time. The Avs simply need an average goaltender and Gibson can easily be that. If he steals any, then its a bonus.

Tell me you don't understand GSAx without telling me you don't understand GSAx.

I can point to a goaltender every single season that plays on a bad team and still puts up better numbers than Gibson. What's the excuse there?

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Colorado played poorly defensively since the beginning of the season.
They give too much A1 scoring chance.
Yes Colorado goaltending could be better but I don't think Gibson is an option because he's not a major upgrade and he's a fragile goalie

Simply not even close to true.

 

[periferal]

Paying the Ducks a 1st for Gibson at 23% retention seems steep relative to the expected impact he'd have. Everything looks like the Avs front office would rather keep Georgie than pay a high price to upgrade to Gibson. I'd roll the dice for a 2nd, but not a 1st.

I was at the Avs/Lightning game last night and I think that Mel Gibson would have a big impact for the Avs in net.

 

[benfranklin]

Tell me you don't understand GSAx without telling me you don't understand GSAx.

I can point to a goaltender every single season that plays on a bad team and still puts up better numbers than Gibson. What's the excuse there?

Wanted to come up with a smartass remark then looked at your post history and you're simply an ahole to everyone here. Yikes. Do you come here to let your anger out?

His stats have been garbage since 2019. We all know this. A lot of people are betting that he has mailed it in with the Ducks for a long time now and might be rejuvenated elsewhere showing the form he had back then. Or maybe he is cooked. Were guessing someone will pay the Ducks to find out.

 

[John Mandalorian]

The Ducks ownership apparently takes issue with spending money off the roster. They seemed willing to spend right up to the cap during the last contention window, sort of putting those "internal budget" talks to rest. But there was some comment from Bob Murray towards the end of tenure about the owners being discontent with spending so much on players who aren't on the active roster. It was more an issue of long term injuries at the time but I would assume the same would apply to all forms of "dead money". So while I can understand that some retention would be necessary, I can't see the Ducks eating a full 50% for another two years, nearly 10M on top of what they need to spend on a replacement. That's why I had another team taking some of that sting in return for a pick, but I also had the Isles dumping significant cap for next year to perhaps try and offer them some additional incentive.

If Gibson were a free agent this past summer, how much does he sign for? It’s certainly not 6.4 million. It’s probable 3-4 million based on his recent performance. Maybe less. There are some goalies in the 2s who have put up better seasons. A lot of them have played for bad teams. So why should opposing teams pay for retention, when that’s not what his value really is? Retention should be Anaheim’s penalty for overpaying him. So, how many teams would give a 1st for a 3.5 m goalie, when there are comparable goalies in the 2s?

 

[WhatTheDuck]

If Gibson were a free agent this past summer, how much does he sign for? It’s certainly not 6.4 million. It’s probable 3-4 million based on his recent performance. Maybe less. There are some goalies in the 2s who have put up better seasons. A lot of them have played for bad teams. So why should opposing teams pay for retention, when that’s not what his value really is? Retention should be Anaheim’s penalty for overpaying him. So, how many teams would give a 1st for a 3.5 m goalie, when there are comparable goalies in the 2s?

He'd still land comfortably north of 5M as a free agent. His numbers may drag him down a bit, but it's also entirely possible he's still a 6M+ goalie who has been in terrible circumstances. The goalies you refer to making in the 2s, are guys that no one is putting faith in as a starter. Who are you talking about, Stolarz and Brossoit who had never played 30 NHL games prior to this season? Of course no one was giving them starters money, that goes to proven starters.

Anaheim has absolutely nothing holding their feet to the fire on a Gibson trade. They are not eating 10M, plus paying to replace him on the roster, just to move him for some crap asset for the sake of a trade. Very content to keep him until a good trade comes along. I doubt they are calling teams to see what they would have to do to move him. The context here is that teams like the Avs and Canes need a goalie, and would likely need his salary trimmed down in order to fit him in. If they want the player, and require the retention, then they'll have to pay for it or there's no deal to be made, fairly simple.

It's been shown time and time again through coach/GM polls etc that Gibson is valued higher around the league than by fans who only peak at stats. Sorry but you looking at his SV% and declaring him a 3M goalie, doesn't make it true. The list of goalies who have proven they can handle a staters workload for years on end, is actually quite short. Gibson is in a bit of his own category in terms of being a proven workhorses with bad numbers in recent years, he doesn't belong in comparisons to career backups.

 

[TS Quint]

How his Gibson looked since returning? The starts look promising. Is he moving and athletically looking like he’s still got some juice left in the tank?

Are the Ducks better as a team defensively than I think? lol. Can’t score but Dostal is crushing everybody in GSAA and if Gibson is back to being a 0.915% goalie….

Who cares? 5 years of crap don't get cleared away because of a couple lucky games. Even with this retention Gibson is over paid.

 

[John Mandalorian]

IHe'd still land comfortably north of 5M as a free agent. His numbers may drag him down a bit, but it's also entirely possible he's still a 6M+ goalie who has been in terrible circumstances. The goalies you refer to making in the 2s, are guys that no one is putting faith in as a starter. Who are you talking about, Stolarz and Brossoit who had never played 30 NHL games prior to this season? Of course no one was giving them starters money, that goes to proven starters.

Anaheim has absolutely nothing holding their feet to the fire on a Gibson trade. They are not eating 10M, plus paying to replace him on the roster, just to move him for some crap asset for the sake of a trade. Very content to keep him until a good trade comes along. I doubt they are calling teams to see what they would have to do to move him. The context here is that teams like the Avs and Canes need a goalie, and would likely need his salary trimmed down in order to fit him in. If they want the player, and require the retention, then they'll have to pay for it or there's no deal to be made, fairly simple.

It's been shown time and time again through coach/GM polls etc that Gibson is valued higher around the league than by fans who only peak at stats. Sorry but you looking at his SV% and declaring him a 3M goalie, doesn't make it true. The list of goalies who have proven they can handle a staters workload for years on end, is actually quite short. Gibson is in a bit of his own category in terms of being a proven workhorses with bad numbers in recent years, he doesn't belong in comparisons to career backups.

Very doubtful he gets 5. Cap space has value and paying him that when there are less expensive goalies who are possibly just as effective carries a lot of risk. You’re making declarations also.

 

[Shane Diesel]

Wanted to come up with a smartass remark then looked at your post history and you're simply an ahole to everyone here. Yikes. Do you come here to let your anger out?

I'm sorry you made a contradictory post that demonstrated your ignorance of GSAx, but that isn't my fault.

His stats have been garbage since 2019. We all know this. A lot of people are betting that he has mailed it in with the Ducks for a long time now and might be rejuvenated elsewhere showing the form he had back then. Or maybe he is cooked. Were guessing someone will pay the Ducks to find out.

His stats are garbage and you're betting it's just because Gibson can't be bothered to show up? What a ringing endorsement.

 

[TS Quint]

Okay shane lets not get carried away

Gibson sitting at a 915 Save percentage
Georgiev is at 874

Id say Colorado has a much better roster/defense than anaheim.

Colorado gives up 25.6 shots a game
Anaheim gives up league worse 34 per game

Gibson is a significant upgrade on Georgiev... no matter how much you hate him.

What a dishonest argument. “Hey guys, ignore the 5 year sample and let’s really focus on 4 games”. Which you need to do to pretend he has this kind of value.

Then we will go back to “Ignore the stats and facts of the last 5 years and just trust me bro”.

Gibson is not going anywhere. He has one of the worst contracts in the league. He got the bag and kicked his feet up. Ducks fans can continue to love him for the next 2 years, then the real evaluation will kick in by Ducks fans when it comes to how much they want to pay him on a new contract.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

Very doubtful he gets 5. Cap space has value and paying him that when there are less expensive goalies who are possibly just as effective carries a lot of risk. You’re making declarations also.

Ranking the NHL's top 10 goalies for 2023-24

Connor Hellebuyck, Jeremy Swayman and Jake Oettinger have their teams in the playoff mix. Who else makes the list this season?

www.espn.com

Players and execs ranked him #14 overall among NHL goalies in last season's poll, his worst statistical year to date. Why are people who are around the league every day, and who get paid to evaluate NHL talent, so much higher on him than those who just look at his stats? Or why is there literally not a single Ducks fan trying to run this "overpaid bum" out of town for the best offer we can get? Answer - because anyone actually paying attention can easily explain why those stats make him look way worse than he has actually performed.

Gibson can put up a .900 SV% playing 50+ games behind teams that had zero first line talent, a blueline group led by Cam Fowler and Kevin Shattenkirk and supported by five guys who didn't earn NHL contracts the next season. Literally in the top 3 worst defensive teams of all time. I don't have much hesitation in suggesting he can be the steady.910-.915 guy the Avs or Canes need behind their very strong rosters. I really don't think folks are grasping how incredibly bad the team was/has been or how good a goalie would have to be in order to have passable looking numbers.

If folks wanted to look deeper into why the consensus opinion on the player around the NHL and from his own team's fanbase, differs so much from the conclusions they draw from their statistical analysis - maybe they need to acknowledge the possibility that these metrics developed very recently, don't yet properly accounts for all variables related to being a starting goalie for historically bad hockey team. Honestly I don't think we have a metric that could properly compare a goalie playing on the Avs to one playing in Anaheim, not to the finite degree that certain posters throw them around as gospel. Take your pick for best goalie in the NHL, and make them actually have to play those 300 games behind these Ducks teams - I would strongly suggest their numbers (and expected stats) crumble worse than you might have predicted by their numbers today.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

We aren't talking about a regular bad team here. This guy literally faced the heaviest workload on a per game basis since Jacques Plante sixty years earlier - and finished that season with a better SV% that year than Georgiev had last year behind your juggernaut roster.

 

[Shane Diesel]

We aren't talking about a regular bad team here. This guy literally faced the heaviest workload on a per game basis since Jacques Plante sixty years earlier - and finished that season with a better SV% that year than Georgiev had last year behind your juggernaut roster.

He finished behind Georgiev last year in both SV% and GSAx.

NHL Stats

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NHL Goalie Advanced Stats 2024-2025

NHL Goalie Analytics, Goals Saved Above Expected

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Also, the idea Gibson has faced an unprecedented workload is another myth propagated by Ducks fans. He's sixth over the past five seasons in shots faced.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

Actually, Connor Hellebuyck is the overworked, miracle worker Ducks fans claim Gibsin is. Gibson is a fraud.

 

[FiveTacos]

It almost feels like if Gibson is leaving Anaheim they're going to be doing it for the player.

That's exactly what it'll be. At this point if all they get is a mid or late round pick, what's the point? If all they can get now is like a mid rounder ... well they can probably get that later too. Heck, in some ways as his term diminishes, he becomes less risky than he is with 2+ years left.

Very doubtful he gets 5. Cap space has value and paying him that when there are less expensive goalies who are possibly just as effective carries a lot of risk. You’re making declarations also.

I peg him more around 3-4m. The cap likely going up, and the way goalie salaries seem to be going crazy, that's pretty much going to be veteran backup money going forward. Top starters now are 8-10m, I expect that to go to 10-13m very soon.

With retention, Gibson's risk is pretty low ... at 50% at worst you end up no worse than a Georgiev situation, but if it pans out you have a starter at a backup salary.

Of course it's perfectly reasonable to evaluate Gibson and think he has no upside to return to starting status. In which case, don't even give up a conditional 7th for max retention.

But *to the Ducks* he still has value as half of their tandem. If they trade him with retention, they still have to go spend money and possibly assets to get a backup. Let's say someone would give a 3rd now (plus two more years of retention), but only a 5th in two years as a rental .... I'm not sure that's worth it to trade him.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

He finished behind Georgiev last year in both SV% and GSAx.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

NHL Goalie Advanced Stats 2024-2025

NHL Goalie Analytics, Goals Saved Above Expected

moneypuck.com

Also, the idea Gibson has faced an unprecedented workload is another myth propagated by Ducks fans. He's sixth over the past five seasons in shots faced.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

Actually, Connor Hellebuyck is the overworked, miracle worker Ducks fans claim Gibsin is. Gibson is a fraud.

You misread, I was comparing Gibson's season in which he faced the most shots per game in 60 years, to Georgiev last year.

Yes Georgiev was a whopping .008 ahead with an exponentially better team in front of him last year, doesn't really make your point at all.

You can keep smashing that GsAx drum all day, but you don't have an actual stat the will show how another goalie would hold up to playing in front of the worst defensive team in the cap era. Metrics attempt to make those comparisons but it's not the same as actually switching shoes - do you comprehend the difference?

As I've said before, eliminate the data points from where his team's expected win percentage on a given night is already below 10-20% and then let's see how much his numbers rise. How much should a good team really care about add on goals he allowed for a shit team that was already dead in the water on a given night?

 

[John Mandalorian]

That's exactly what it'll be. At this point if all they get is a mid or late round pick, what's the point? If all they can get now is like a mid rounder ... well they can probably get that later too. Heck, in some ways as his term diminishes, he becomes less risky than he is with 2+ years left.



I peg him more around 3-4m. The cap likely going up, and the way goalie salaries seem to be going crazy, that's pretty much going to be veteran backup money going forward. Top starters now are 8-10m, I expect that to go to 10-13m very soon.

With retention, Gibson's risk is pretty low ... at 50% at worst you end up no worse than a Georgiev situation, but if it pans out you have a starter at a backup salary.

Of course it's perfectly reasonable to evaluate Gibson and think he has no upside to return to starting status. In which case, don't even give up a conditional 7th for max retention.

But *to the Ducks* he still has value as half of their tandem. If they trade him with retention, they still have to go spend money and possibly assets to get a backup. Let's say someone would give a 3rd now (plus two more years of retention), but only a 5th in two years as a rental .... I'm not sure that's worth it to trade him.

It depends. If the acquiring team is only paying for a 3.5 million dollar goalie and not compensating Anaheim for retention (because Anaheim is the team who overpaid him), then yeah. It’s less risk. But in that scenario Anaheim ownership/mgt might start to ask why they’re paying Gibson to play against them for multiple years.

There are goalies for other “bad” teams who are around .900 have a much lower AAV. If Anaheim expects compensation for retention, those guys become less risky. The acquiring teams probably rationalize any of these guys will be have a better save % with them.