Post-Game Talk: Ducks 3 - Jets 2

[WolfHouse]

That pass looked like he was trying to bank one in off Vilardi's shin pad, good thing it dropped straight down. Got to like the way Gabe scores his goals, you'll never see Ehlers leaning on a far post, getting buried in the crease. But we draw more penalties with him on the ice. Until the playoffs.

Ehlers shares bumper duties with vilardi on the powerplay - what are you talking about? Hes was in the slot tons last night

 

[voyageur]

Ehlers shares bumper duties with vilardi on the powerplay - what are you talking about? Hes was in the slot tons last night

There's the slot between d-men, and then there is the far post, where Vilardi likes to score goals off of. That area where you can miss the post by 6 inches and still score because it hits a leg. That's Valardi's spot, I don't think I've seen Ehlers anywhere near there.

 

[Optimistic Cynic]

There's the slot between d-men, and then there is the far post, where Vilardi likes to score goals off of. That area where you can miss the post by 6 inches and still score because it hits a leg. That's Valardi's spot, I don't think I've seen Ehlers anywhere near there.

Given Ehlers' size, if he hung around in Valardi's area the d-men would squash him like a bug.

 

[raideralex99]

If we were battling for a playoff spot i could understand some negative stuff but right now i don't get it. Our 5 on 5 play has dropped but our PP is the best in the league. Now i understand that we want better 5 on 5 play but if our 5 on 5 play was better but our PP sucked we would be complaining about that. Plus the playoffs are 4 months away from now,let's see what the team looks like once we get closer before we start saying we are getting pumped in the first round again.

You know what's funny when I'm watching other games or reading other teams comments ... they say the same thing their 5 on 5 play needs to improve. They are playoff teams but their 5 on 5 play needs to improve?
Maybe the reason why their 5 on 5 play is not great is because when you are up by 2 goals you play a different style of game plus teams who are down a couple of goals will have a push and take chances.
Seriously some of these stats they come out with don't prove anything.
A win is worth 2 points if they win with a good PP and good goaltending but bad 5 on 5 its still 2 points.

Does 5v5 have more predictive value of playoff success than all stregnths?

I just checked on money puck who are the top teams 5 on 5.
I must be a dummy ... I can't figure out how plus minus 6 is better than plus 11?
Boston is #6 in the league 5 on 5 ... they have scored 58 and gave up 64 goals a difference of -6.
Jets are #21 in the league 5 on 5 ... they have scored 67 and gave up 56 goals a difference of +11.
Avs are #10 in the league ... 66 goals and gave up 73 a difference of -7.

It goes to show you how some people will believe anything even if you eyes sees something different.

 

[Optimistic Cynic]

I just checked on money puck who are the top teams 5 on 5.
I must be a dummy ... I can't figure out how plus minus 6 is better than plus 11?
Boston is #6 in the league 5 on 5 ... they have scored 58 and gave up 64 goals a difference of -6.
Jets are #21 in the league 5 on 5 ... they have scored 67 and gave up 56 goals a difference of +11.
Avs are #10 in the league ... 66 goals and gave up 73 a difference of -7.

It goes to show you how some people will believe anything even if you eyes sees something different.

Moneypuck is a load of crap.

Go to hockey-ref (Playoff Probabilities Report | Hockey-Reference.com) and you'll see the Jets are 98.8% likely to make the playoffs. Moneypuck says we have 76.7% chance.

Yeah, first place team in the whole f***ing league but they have 13 teams more likely to make the playoffs than us.

 

[Buffdog]

Yes

https://www.ida.liu.se/research/sportsanalytics/LINHAC/LINHAC23/papers/paper-research-LiU-special.pdf

Did you actially read that?

Because that's not what I asked. BUT, if you read the conclusion, it actually agrees with me

 

[scelaton]

Seriously? You don't know if anyone is bitching?

Your definition of bitching is different from mine. I went back to the start of this board and examined just the first 100 posts in this file. I counted 31 of them are deliberate bitching.

Speaking of how you define things: Many years ago in a professional meeting I got so frustrated with opposing counsel that I blurted out "What kind of moron are you?" My opponent turned to the chair and complained that I had insulted him. Recovering quickly, I said, "It wasn't an insult, it was a request for information." The chair supressed a smirk but dismissed the complaint with a reminder to both sides to remain professional.

You aren't really surprised or annoyed about this are you?

After all, the game ended close to midnight (2 AM in Cape Breton ), only the diehards stayed up, and most of those hundred posts likely came in the wee hours, after a crappy performance, topped by a lame giveaway in the last minute, as if to mock their fandom thusly "Ha, you diehards are the real losers for staying up and watching this!"

I say, let them bitch; it's cathartic and beats kicking the cat!

 

[Stumbledore]

@Stumbledore is now pronounced "icon" at my house, hahaha

But seriously there is way too much bitching from the sexually frustrated among us.

If I remember correctly - cause it's been a few years -- bitching too much at home would increase my chances of sexual frustration. So much for being an icon.

You aren't really surprised or annoyed about this are you?

I say, let them bitch; it's cathartic!

Because the cake's already been eaten.

Wasn't feeling annoyed or surprised, just replying to some guy saying he'd never seen anyone bitching on here. I see it all the time and thought I'd actually check it out. Even being generous, a third of the board is bitching all the time when you go back and look at it.

Sorta like being convicted in hindsight.

 

[White Out 902]

Did you actially read that?

Because that's not what I asked. BUT, if you read the conclusion, it actually agrees with me

Yes
And no, it doesn't

 

[10Ducky10]

Minny, Stars and Avs were 6-4 in the last 10 games. At this rate the Jets will drop out of the top 3 in the Central at about game 140.

I was just trying to point out if you cut it off at 8 games, you are showing an 81.25 winning percentage, but if you take the last 10 games, you show a winning percentage of 55%.
A change of over 26 in just two games.
I wasn't trying to bitch about or brag about their last few games.
I still think we finish in 1st place in the division to be honest.
We have 8 home games in a row to start the new year and you would think the first 3 games against the Ducks, the Red Wings and the Preds should get us at least 5 points. It is a pretty easy month with only 4 games on the road.

At first I thought we would have a tougher time replacing Sammy but I think replacing Ehlers was harder.

 

[Buffdog]

Yes
And no, it doesn't

It clearly states that the best teams have the best combined 5v5 and PP goal differentials. Which is another way of saying "all stregths"

 

[KingBogo]

I was just trying to point out if you cut it off at 8 games, you are showing an 81.25 winning percentage, but if you take the last 10 games, you show a winning percentage of 55%.
A change of over 26 in just two games.
I wasn't trying to bitch about or brag about their last few games.
I still think we finish in 1st place in the division to be honest.
We have 8 home games in a row to start the new year and you would think the first 3 games against the Ducks, the Red Wings and the Preds should get us at least 5 points. It is a pretty easy month with only 4 games on the road.

At first I thought we would have a tougher time replacing Sammy but I think replacing Ehlers was harder.

I don’t disagree you can do a cut off where you want. Bottom line it is your whole record that ultimately counts. Every team has their ups and downs in the short term.

 

[voyageur]

Given Ehlers' size, if he hung around in Valardi's area the d-men would squash him like a bug.

Yep Ehlers is an open ice player. Vilardi being that right side guy that will go to the net, it's what Wheeler would never do, it's a great pp option to have, keeps goalies from coming out to challenge shots more and makes KC the most dangerous trigger man. Having a good PP will back a lot of teams off from taking unnecessary runs, late hit penalties, if you make them pay for it.

 

[wraithsonwings]

Are these the ugliest orange jerseys or is it the neon oiler orange that are the ugliest orange jerseys?

Yes.

 

[SLAYER]

I say we adopt the NHL's "no re-entrance" policy this season lol

Sure but the smokers are going to be pissed.

 

[White Out 902]

It clearly states that the best teams have the best combined 5v5 and PP goal differentials. Which is another way of saying "all stregths"

 

[Buffdog]

The next sentence means "all strengths"

 

[sipowicz]

Hahahahaaa holy fk

Names on pace for his most points since he was 25...
Ehlers on pace for 60 pts as always
Lowry on pace for a career high points - BY 13 POINTS
AHL Apples on pace for a career high
Perfetti on pace for career high - BY 12 POINTS

If there's one criticism its the usage of the fourth line - they are all underperforming... the only thing that changed with Barron and Iafallo is that Kupari is their main center this year

The Jets are 8-10 in the last 18 FYI, can’t live off a hot October and early November all season!

 

[AtomicJets]

Statistically ES goal differential is more predictive than PP but total goal differential is the most predictive.

Every team has its ups and downs throughout the season. Regular season success means having ups that are a little longer than the downs. Playoff success means heating up at the right time. Fans see 15-1 in the first 16 and think, wow this is who we are. Then they go 8-9-1 in the next 18 and fans think, oh wow so THIS is who we really are. But the reality is almost always somewhere in between. It's no coincidence that the team was on a downswing with Samberg and Ehlers out. The margins between winning and losing in the modern NHL are razor thin.

Look at Colorado's record. Are they a bubble team? Or did they just have some injuries to key players and some bad goaltending?

I think we all knew the Jets weren't going to go 72-10. 15-1 was a crazy start. But that doesn't mean the last 18 games are "the real team." It's just a different moment in time in a long season.

 

[Buffdog]

Statistically ES goal differential is more predictive than PP but total goal differential is the most predictive.

Every team has its ups and downs throughout the season. Regular season success means having ups that are a little longer than the downs. Playoff success means heating up at the right time. Fans see 15-1 in the first 16 and think, wow this is who we are. Then they go 8-9-1 in the next 18 and fans think, oh wow so THIS is who we really are. But the reality is almost always somewhere in between. It's no coincidence that the team was on a downswing with Samberg and Ehlers out. The margins between winning and losing in the modern NHL are razor thin.

Look at Colorado's record. Are they a bubble team? Or did they just have some injuries to key players and some bad goaltending?

I think we all knew the Jets weren't going to go 72-10. 15-1 was a crazy start. But that doesn't mean the last 18 games are "the real team." It's just a different moment in time in a long season.

Someone should pin this post

 

[KingBogo]

Statistically ES goal differential is more predictive than PP but total goal differential is the most predictive.

Every team has its ups and downs throughout the season. Regular season success means having ups that are a little longer than the downs. Playoff success means heating up at the right time. Fans see 15-1 in the first 16 and think, wow this is who we are. Then they go 8-9-1 in the next 18 and fans think, oh wow so THIS is who we really are. But the reality is almost always somewhere in between. It's no coincidence that the team was on a downswing with Samberg and Ehlers out. The margins between winning and losing in the modern NHL are razor thin.

Look at Colorado's record. Are they a bubble team? Or did they just have some injuries to key players and some bad goaltending?

I think we all knew the Jets weren't going to go 72-10. 15-1 was a crazy start. But that doesn't mean the last 18 games are "the real team." It's just a different moment in time in a long season.

This a great post. It won’t keep some from howling at the moon with every loss, but we need as many of us as possible to keep grounded that it is a long ass 82 game season with many ups and downs. There won’t just be good times.

 

[Buffdog]

Last thing I'll say about 5v5 vs all stregth as a predictor of playoff success:

Who led the league last season in 5v5 GF% and what happened to them in the playoffs?

Who led the league in all stregth GF% last regulat season and how did things work out for them in the playoffs?

Sometimes, real world results > mathematical models found on page 7 of a Google search