Post-Game Talk: Ducks 3 - Jets 2

[Board Bard]

Miller doesn't kill penalties, but Stanley and Fleury both do. With Samberg out, they're a bit short of PK defenders.

Saying Stanley kills penalties might be overstating it a bit. Maybe causes them slight discomfort.

 

[BoneDocUK]

He's actually been decent at the part of shutting down those 2 on 1 cross crease passes, just by laying a massive giraffe leg out. Full extended Stan probalby cover 10 feet of ice flopping on his belly. Maybe it's science. He and Fleury block shots, which is what any d-man on the PK should do if you don't want to create rebound opportunities.

Probably is too slow. Fleury though is getting closer to Samberg's numbers with each game.

I think Fleury has played well, especially when within his limits. Mobile, seems to look for the simpler outlets but can skate it out, has a goof first pass and while not particularly physical uses body positioning to block lanes, etc.

Think he's been a solid acquisition. Nought wrong with a SAH defender on a modest contract who doesn't make a lot of mistakes and seems comfortable playing the Jets' preferred transition game.

 

[Jets 31]

I think the 15 wins and one loss has more to do with the fact that we're number one in the league. The hot start, I get it it happened. I'm talking about the last 22% of the Season where we are below 500 and playing like a lottery Team 5 on 5. Our goal tending and power play hasn't been able to keep us at a winning rate over the last stretch of that hockey.

We are 5-2-1 in our last 8 games

 

[10Ducky10]

Stanley getting hurt proves that there is a Santa Claus...

We are 5-2-1 in our last 7 games

We are 5-2-1 in our last 8 games you mean?

We are 5-4-1 in our last 10 games.

 

[Jets 31]

Stanley getting hurt proves that there is a Santa Claus...


We are 5-2-1 in our last 8 games you mean?

We are 5-4-1 in our last 10 games.

Sorry, fixed it.

 

[Gm0ney]

We are 5-2-1 in our last 8 games

The Jets' last 8 opponents have a combined points percentage of .477 and a goal differential of -120. Vegas is the only one with a positive goal differential (and the Jets lost to them in OT).

 

[Jets 31]

This board right now.....
And.....

 

[Stumbledore]

I don’t know if anyone is bitching (although could be someone I have on ignore), it seems to me mostly discussing pros and cons of different players at different points of the season.

Seriously? You don't know if anyone is bitching?

Your definition of bitching is different from mine. I went back to the start of this board and examined just the first 100 posts in this file. I counted 31 of them are deliberate bitching.

Speaking of how you define things: Many years ago in a professional meeting I got so frustrated with opposing counsel that I blurted out "What kind of moron are you?" My opponent turned to the chair and complained that I had insulted him. Recovering quickly, I said, "It wasn't an insult, it was a request for information." The chair supressed a smirk but dismissed the complaint with a reminder to both sides to remain professional.

 

[Jets 31]

The Jets' last 8 opponents have a combined points percentage of .477 and a goal differential of -120. Vegas is the only one with a positive goal differential (and the Jets lost to them in OT).

5-2-1 is still a winning record against said teams.

 

[Jets 31]

Seriously? You don't know if anyone is bitching?

Your definition of bitching is different from mine. I went back to the start of this board and examined just the first 100 posts in this file. I counted 31 of them are deliberate bitching.

Speaking of how you define things: Many years ago in a professional meeting I got so frustrated with opposing counsel that I blurted out "What kind of moron are you?" My opponent turned to the chair and complained that I had insulted him. Recovering quickly, I said, "It wasn't an insult, it was a request for information." The chair supressed a smirk but dismissed the complaint with a reminder to both sides to remain professional.

That's funny, i have to remember that one.

 

[Buffdog]

I'm only going to ask one simple question. There's been statistical evidence provided that 5-on-5 for the last 18 games, which represents 22% of a hockey season, the Jets rank 30th in the league for 5-on-5. How can this possibly not be a concern with the game going forward? This is not a small sample size. This is basically a quarter of a season being played with a lottery team 5-on-5.

Does 5v5 have more predictive value of playoff success than all stregnths?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

When the Jets were going 15-1 they were playing 50-60 minutes a game most of the time. This game they played for 15. I think that is the difference. Coasted through 2 periods. Came out playing hard in the 3rd. Seemed to completely run out of gas with 5 to go. That PP with 3 minutes left looked just like the PPs of other recent seasons - no zip. Power-failure Play.

 

[DRW204]

I'm only going to ask one simple question. There's been statistical evidence provided that 5-on-5 for the last 18 games, which represents 22% of a hockey season, the Jets rank 30th in the league for 5-on-5. How can this possibly not be a concern with the game going forward? This is not a small sample size. This is basically a quarter of a season being played with a lottery team 5-on-5.

How are they 30th exactly.

Interesting take. I am just hoping they get something for Ehler's and think he is worth at least a second line centre

If you can find me 5-10 trades in the cap era whee a team moves out of one of their top scoring fwds at the tdl I'll warm up to your thinking.

 

[Gm0ney]

Does 5v5 have more predictive value of playoff success than all stregnths?

5v5 xGoal +/- last regular season (using SportLogiq's xG - which is apparently a bit better than public models, but not a ton - like 80% vs. 75% or something I think). You can see the Cup Finalists are 1-2 (well, 2-1 I suppose) and the Canes and Stars were the other two Conference Finalists):

Here's the 2021-22 season - Cup winner Vegas was 8th, but the Panthers were 3rd in xG+/-. Carolina was 6th. Dallas was a surprise.

 

[Buffdog]

5v5 xGoal +/- last regular season (using SportLogiq's xG - which is apparently a bit better than public models, but not a ton - like 80% vs. 75% or something I think). You can see the Cup Finalists are 1-2 (well, 2-1 I suppose) and the Canes and Stars were the other two Conference Finalists):
View attachment 948786

Here's the 2021-22 season - Cup winner Vegas was 8th, but the Panthers were 3rd in xG+/-. Carolina was 6th. Dallas was a surprise.
View attachment 948787

Just to be clear...

According to the labels, that's all stregth xG +/-?

 

[Gm0ney]

Just to be clear...

According to the labels, that's all stregth xG +/-?

Oh yeah sorry...that's all strengths.

 

[Buffdog]

Oh yeah sorry...that's all strengths.

I've dug a bit before and I believe that all stregth goal differential is a stronger correlator with playoff success than 5v5 goal differential - which is why I always shake my head when people trot out poor 5v5 play as "the thing" to bemoan

That said, I've never looked at xG

That's also not to say that I don't think that the Jets should be better at 5v5, but I don't think it's the death knell on the season that the catastrophizers are making it out to be

 

[Gm0ney]

I've dug a bit before and I believe that all stregth goal differential is a stronger correlator with playoff success than 5v5 goal differential - which is why I always shake my head when people trot out poor 5v5 play as "the thing" to bemoan

That said, I've never looked at xG

That's also not to say that I don't think that the Jets should be better at 5v5, but I don't think it's the death knell on the season that the catastrophizers are making it out to be

FWIW, NST had Oilers, Canes, Stars, Kings and Panthers as their Top 5 (in that order) 5v5 xG% last year.

But it make sense that looking at a full season in all-situations would be a better predictor. You've got a big sample of PK and PP. Kinda like full season goal differential correlates pretty well too - the sample's large enough that some signal emerges from the noise.

When you're just over 30 games into a season though, the shot metrics would be less noisy than the goal metrics.

 

[johnnyonthspot]

How are they 30th exactly.


If you can find me 5-10 trades in the cap era whee a team moves out of one of their top scoring fwds at the tdl I'll warm up to your thinking.

I would have to really research that but Chevy has pulled off some amazing deals.

I've dug a bit before and I believe that all stregth goal differential is a stronger correlator with playoff success than 5v5 goal differential - which is why I always shake my head when people trot out poor 5v5 play as "the thing" to bemoan

That said, I've never looked at xG

That's also not to say that I don't think that the Jets should be better at 5v5, but I don't think it's the death knell on the season that the catastrophizers are making it out to be

It's a death knell , you need special teams but getting caved in 5 v 5 leads to lots of shots, tired players and penalties..they have to be stronger 5 v 5 . Full stop, period!

 

[KingBogo]

Stanley getting hurt proves that there is a Santa Claus...


We are 5-2-1 in our last 8 games you mean?

We are 5-4-1 in our last 10 games.

Minny, Stars and Avs were 6-4 in the last 10 games. At this rate the Jets will drop out of the top 3 in the Central at about game 140.

 

[SUX2BU]

Seriously? You don't know if anyone is bitching?

Your definition of bitching is different from mine. I went back to the start of this board and examined just the first 100 posts in this file. I counted 31 of them are deliberate bitching.

Speaking of how you define things: Many years ago in a professional meeting I got so frustrated with opposing counsel that I blurted out "What kind of moron are you?" My opponent turned to the chair and complained that I had insulted him. Recovering quickly, I said, "It wasn't an insult, it was a request for information." The chair supressed a smirk but dismissed the complaint with a reminder to both sides to remain professional.

31% huh?

That’s almost as good as our power play …..…..

 

[White Out 902]

Does 5v5 have more predictive value of playoff success than all stregnths?

Yes

https://www.ida.liu.se/research/sportsanalytics/LINHAC/LINHAC23/papers/paper-research-LiU-special.pdf

 

[Board Bard]

Speaking of how you define things: Many years ago in a professional meeting I got so frustrated with opposing counsel that I blurted out "What kind of moron are you?" My opponent turned to the chair and complained that I had insulted him. Recovering quickly, I said, "It wasn't an insult, it was a request for information." The chair supressed a smirk but dismissed the complaint with a reminder to both sides to remain professional.

Could you please attend an Arniel presser, hold up a picture of Stanley and ask that same question?

That's not me bitching. I'm making a request for intermediation.

 

[Stumbledore]

That's funny, i have to remember that one.

I've heard different versions of this, but in my moment of panic that's the line I reached for. There's more clever alternatives to avoid getting sanctions and I expect they came from barristers much more clever than me.

Could you please attend an Arniel presser, hold up a picture of Stanley and ask that same question?

That's not me bitching. I'm making a request for intermediation.

I have enough trouble just getting around the house these days. But I do agree with you completely. What the coach sees in that tall, slow pylon I'll never know.

 

[Section 325]

Seriously? You don't know if anyone is bitching?

Your definition of bitching is different from mine. I went back to the start of this board and examined just the first 100 posts in this file. I counted 31 of them are deliberate bitching.

Speaking of how you define things: Many years ago in a professional meeting I got so frustrated with opposing counsel that I blurted out "What kind of moron are you?" My opponent turned to the chair and complained that I had insulted him. Recovering quickly, I said, "It wasn't an insult, it was a request for information." The chair supressed a smirk but dismissed the complaint with a reminder to both sides to remain professional.

@Stumbledore is now pronounced "icon" at my house, hahaha

But seriously there is way too much bitching from the sexually frustrated among us.