Post-Game Talk: Ducks 3 - Jets 2

[Hobble]

I would really like to see a 2C with term take the 2nd spot, if it takes some draft capital and a prospect or two so be it. I want no part of a rental of any kind this year

They also must be able to skate. No more Monahan or Toffoli anchors

 

[KingBogo]

Damn , Chibby deserves to stay up, sit Barron for a few games.

I think it is likely Gus is ready to come off IR and they need the roster spot.

 

[bustamente]

Chibby's time will come but it will be next year, he gave the Jets brass a taste and I'm pretty sure they liked what they saw

 

[Jets 31]

Yeah, I'm honestly not sure what the play is there

Clearly it wasn't up the middle lol

But that Ducks player did a great job of closing distance and sealing off the wall so I don't think that was an option either

Maybe a high flip through the middle into the neutral zone was safest, or switching it to the weak side

Watching the replay it looks like Pionk's pass or shoot-out attempt went off of a Ducks skate. Still looked like he panicked a bit though.

 

[KingBogo]

The Jets now look real purposeful with their callups. Lambert 4 games, Chibby 4 games. Both get a little more taste of the NHL and show the brass what they can do.

 

[ecolad]

I can agree with that for sure

I think there is a good chance Ville can help in this regard whoever he plays with. But his career and NHL numbers are still in their infancy so it's too early to say that

I also think Ville can do MUCH more in terms of controlled offensive zone entries. The eye test shows that he currently really hesitates to carry the puck into the offensive zone, electing instead to make the "no risk" dump play, and these stats bear that out. Not sure if he has simply not been given the green light, or, if he has simply not yet gained the confidence needed. With the way Arneil has short shifted him at times and even inexplicably left him off the roster at times, I could understand him being ultra low-risk where he can.

 

[Jets 31]

I think it is likely Gus is ready to come off IR and they need the roster spot.

You know Gus has some good things about his play but man he gets injured alot .....

 

[DRW204]

I would really like to see a 2C with term take the 2nd spot, if it takes some draft capital and a prospect or two so be it. I want no part of a rental of any kind this year

I was fine with Namestnikov there last year but IMO this year they could use a definite upgrade on the second line. Neither he or perfetti have been consistent enough or noteworthy offensively. Namestnikov is not a long term piece so If a 2C with term exists, id make a move.
Cozens would be a large bet (nearly a 40m dollar one) to make however he's the only name and player with some high potential that's rumored to be available. Buffalo loves making dumb deals and players often bounce back or progress away from that team.

 

[Jets 31]

I thought PLD was the guy too, as for Cozens there will be a significant cost involved. I still think we can trade for a 2C with term as we get closer to the deadline and teams drop out of the playoff race. I'm done with rentals

If a rental helped win us the Cup i would let it slide.

 

[Edgar Halliwax]

I just watched the game, and it was not our best. Here's hoping we come out with more energy against the Wild in a few days.

 

[bustamente]

I was fine with Namestnikov there last year but IMO this year they could use a definite upgrade on the second line. Neither he or perfetti have been consistent enough or noteworthy offensively. Namestnikov is not a long term piece so If a 2C with term exists, id make a move.
Cozens would be a large bet (nearly a 40m dollar one) to make however he's the only name and player with some high potential that's rumored to be available. Buffalo loves making dumb deals and players often bounce back or progress away from that team.

As I said in the Trade thread I'm okay with an overpay this team needs a 2C badly for the sake of the season and playoffs

 

[DRW204]

Hellebuyck has stopped 18 more goals than expected (Moneypuck). A literally average goalie there instead and we’re only down 6-7 points in the standings. Still a central seed (#3)

He’s big but let’s not forget we still have a +36 goal differential and are still first overall.

The way that loss stings can’t be denied, except maybe for the whole “that’s what you get for playing like shit” feeling.

18 goals against is worth 3 wins?

 

[Eyeseeing]

I doubt Edmonton makes the playoffs without McDavid. What happens to Tampa without Kucherov? Not sure the Devils make the playoffs without Jack Hughes. Toronto probably doesn’t make the playoff without Matthew’s. Helleybuyck is a superstar up in the top 10 impact players in the NHL and I agree we probably don’t make the playoff without him. The good news is we do have him.

I’m glad we have him as well.
Oilers have Leon who is the 2nd best player in the league, he can drag them in.
Helle sure makes coaches and GMs look good.
( Hypothetical scenario )
Hellebucyk blows his knee out next game, we probably don’t make playoffs even with this early cushion.
Are the other goalies in this organization up to the task?
I didn’t think so.
Helle is league MVP important in that regard the Jets die without him.
Scheifele our second best player cannot carry this team on his shoulders.
Helle or bust.

 

[SteakTips]

I know people don't want to hear this, but this is the real Jets team and the performance last night is full value for who they are and what they are all about. The beginning of this year was a massive fluke and frankly looking back at when it was happening we all knew they didn't deserve that record even at the time. This team has the stamina and fortitude of 3-year old's, not young men getting paid millions. They are always tired and past bedtime. I'll always pick the other team to win if its close in the 3rd. Teams know the Jets are pushovers and give up late goals. They have been doing this for the last 7 years straight. They can push and there is just no pushback when a club is not mentally tough and out there for a figure skate.

 

[Howard Chuck]

The Jets now look real purposeful with their callups. Lambert 4 games, Chibby 4 games. Both get a little more taste of the NHL and show the brass what they can do.

Great thing to do while we have such a buffer in points. See what we have.

I also think Ville can do MUCH more in terms of controlled offensive zone entries. The eye test shows that he currently really hesitates to carry the puck into the offensive zone, electing instead to make the "no risk" dump play, and these stats bear that out. Not sure if he has simply not been given the green light, or, if he has simply not yet gained the confidence needed. With the way Arneil has short shifted him at times and even inexplicably left him off the roster at times, I could understand him being ultra low-risk where he can.

Morrissey also played like that until Bones sat him down and gave him the green light. He’s never looked back.

 

[Buffdog]

Hellebuyck has stopped 18 more goals than expected (Moneypuck). A literally average goalie there instead and we’re only down 6-7 points in the standings. Still a central seed (#3)

He’s big but let’s not forget we still have a +36 goal differential and are still first overall.

The way that loss stings can’t be denied, except maybe for the whole “that’s what you get for playing like shit” feeling.

Exactly

Helle has a .926 save percentage on 697 shots

League average is .900

If we had league average goaltending, he'd have let in 70 instead of 56 on the same number of shots

That would bring our goal differential down from 36 to 22, which would place us 5th in the league instead of 1st. That also doesn't account for the impact the player(s) we used the difference in cap hit between what helle makes and the hypothetical league average goalie on. It would probably be an extra 4-4.5M

So this idea that "we'd be a shit team without Helle" is unfounded.

 

[AlphaLackey]

18 goals against is worth 3 wins?

Yeah. It’s a pretty reliable ratio when you graph goal differential to standings points. And if thought about logically, it makes sense.

The absolute most a goal can be worth is one point in the standings — with one second left in a tied game, it turns half a win into a win; with one second left in a game you’re down by one, it turns a 0% chance to win into a 50%

Sometimes, a goal is worth essentially 0% of a win (you let in a goal with 30s left when you’re up by 4 / down by 4)

Most goals will be worth something in the middle. But especially goals when one team is already up by 2 or more are closer to the “zero” end.

On average, yeah. About three goals to one point, so about six goals to a win.

 

[AlphaLackey]

I was actually just typing this example up: Columbus is (was) up by 2 against NJ midway through the second. That Monahan goal just now increased CBus from 87.3% to 92.8% win, so it was worth about 5.5% of a win or 11% of a point.

And also, one of the teams chasing up for first is getting thumped by CBus 3-0

 

[raideralex99]

I know people don't want to hear this, but this is the real Jets team and the performance last night is full value for who they are and what they are all about. The beginning of this year was a massive fluke and frankly looking back at when it was happening we all knew they didn't deserve that record even at the time. This team has the stamina and fortitude of 3-year old's, not young men getting paid millions. They are always tired and past bedtime. I'll always pick the other team to win if its close in the 3rd. Teams know the Jets are pushovers and give up late goals. They have been doing this for the last 7 years straight. They can push and there is just no pushback when a club is not mentally tough and out there for a figure skate.

Seriously a “massive Fluke”????
Obviously you NEVER watched the games. Jets literally dominated every period in the majority of those games. Of the 23 wins Jets deserved to win at least 15 of those games … how is that a fluke.
Since you are an expert please lmk which team is the best team in the league and who will win the Cup. I will gladly make you look like a winner.
Everybody has 96.8% of picking a team who will not win the Stanley Cup but only a 3.2% can pick a winner.

 

[Buffdog]

I was actually just typing this example up: Columbus is (was) up by 2 against NJ midway through the second. That Monahan goal just now increased CBus from 87.3% to 92.8% win, so it was worth about 5.5% of a win or 11% of a point.

And also, one of the teams chasing up for first is getting thumped by CBus 3-0

You sound like Rain Man lol

Meant as a compliment

 

[DRW204]

Yeah. It’s a pretty reliable ratio when you graph goal differential to standings points. And if thought about logically, it makes sense.

The absolute most a goal can be worth is one point in the standings — with one second left in a tied game, it turns half a win into a win; with one second left in a game you’re down by one, it turns a 0% chance to win into a 50%

Sometimes, a goal is worth essentially 0% of a win (you let in a goal with 30s left when you’re up by 4 / down by 4)

Most goals will be worth something in the middle. But especially goals when one team is already up by 2 or more are closer to the “zero” end.

On average, yeah. About three goals to one point, so about six goals to a win.

Would it be more appropriate to run an analysis where for all the hellebuyck started games if hypothetically all strengths xGA = GA (assuming 1:1 is current league average), what would the Jets record be with that game's GF being the same? This uniformally assumes average goaltending on the xGA per game, rather than varying game to game for a season which evidently would usually be the case, but may avoid some of the scenarios you listed (ie: like a 6th GA in a blow out loss, which would destroy your GA vs xGA numbers)

 

[johnnyonthspot]

I thought PLD was the guy too, as for Cozens there will be a significant cost involved. I still think we can trade for a 2C with term as we get closer to the deadline and teams drop out of the playoff race. I'm done with rentals

I think any good no.2 centre comes at a price but who on this team is untradable? scheif , the Connors, Morrisey , Lowry and Nino in my books. Ehlers would be but for his contract status . So Ehlers for Cousins who has term left and potential plus a Canadian kid in Buffalo not glam and glitz there.

 

[DRW204]

I think any good no.2 centre comes at a price but who on this team is untradable? scheif , the Connors, Morrisey , Lowry and Nino in my books. Ehlers would be but for his contract status . So Ehlers for Cousins who has term left and potential plus a Canadian kid in Buffalo not glam and glitz there.

Doubt Buffalo trades Cozens for solely a pending ufa. By July 2025 they potentially have nothing left from the trade.

 

[Eyeseeing]

Exactly

Helle has a .926 save percentage on 697 shots

League average is .900

If we had league average goaltending, he'd have let in 70 instead of 56 on the same number of shots

That would bring our goal differential down from 36 to 22, which would place us 5th in the league instead of 1st. That also doesn't account for the impact the player(s) we used the difference in cap hit between what helle makes and the hypothetical league average goalie on. It would probably be an extra 4-4.5M

So this idea that "we'd be a shit team without Helle" is unfounded.

Helle gets injured seriously and we are pooched
We’d be bubble city

 

[Buffdog]

Would it be more appropriate to run an analysis where for all the hellebuyck started games if hypothetically all strengths xGA = GA (assuming 1:1 is current league average), what would the Jets record be with that game's GF being the same? This uniformally assumes average goaltending on the xGA per game, rather than varying game to game for a season which evidently would usually be the case, but may avoid some of the scenarios you listed (ie: like a 6th GA in a blow out loss, which would destroy your numbers)

That assumes that goalies play to their average each game, no?

How many of the ~500 games played in the league so far gave had "average" goaltending?

Helle gets injured seriously and we are pooched
We’d be bubble city

If those numbers hold up, the 5th best team in the league in all stregth goal differential should make the playoffs easily