Post-Game Talk: Ducks 3 - Jets 2

raideralex99

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The difference between the 15-1 Jets and the 8-9-1 Jets is simple ... they played a full 60 minutes to start the season and now are coasting at times ... its a long season there are going to be bumps along the way. I like their schedule in the second half especially the last 6 weeks they should be ready for the playoffs.
I do think they need an upgrade on D and center but if you are not getting a top 4 D or top center with term don't waste prospects/picks.
 
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Buffdog

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Regardless of what happened last night specifically, there is one player much, much weaker than the rest of the D when it comes to exiting our zone. His GF% looks good, but I think there is a cost to him being in the lineup beyond that. I imagine we all agree on this to an extent.

We are a pretty good squad defensively. 3 of our 4 lines have consistently kept the puck out of our net. Last year and this year both.

Playing Ehlers line more and Scheifele line less 5v5 will (i believe) help this team win more games, but it will upset the pecking order. So I imagine that's off the table for suggestions...

Playing Miller more and Pionk less will (I believe) help this team win more hockey games. But he is somehow behind Stanley in the pecking order again...

Plenty of solutions we have gone back and forth on in the summer time. Those issues haven't gone away. Just lying dormant during our hot streak to start the year
Demelo?
 
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Gm0ney

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Have you calculated how many of those games Ehlers has played and whether that plays any factor?
Ehlers is having a terrible year in terms of 5v5 shot metrics.

Over the last 18 games, with Ehlers on the ice the Jets are getting buried. The Jets were doing significantly better without him (although still underwater for most of the shot metrics.

It's pretty unusual...
 

Howard Chuck

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I only watched a bit of the second and the team as a whole could complete a pass under any circumstances. I know that Samberg back will be a positive but it’s not going to fix not starting in the first period, lack of shots, terrible passing and general malaise.

But we’re still in first!
 
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Buffdog

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Terrible decision by Pionk to try a pass towards the middle of the ice with seconds left on the clock. Off the glass in that scenario would seem to be the play.

Really feeling for Comrie. It feels like everytime he plays he having to stand on his head, and he's making acrobatic saves to keep the team in it. But they seem to reserve poor showings for him and give him bot very much support.
It's interesting you bring that up, and I think that it speaks to an earlier post I made about zone exits (specifically the idea of running some picks, etc)

If you go back to watch the play, Names is in perfect close support position for a short pass. The lane is there, but Appleton lets the Ducks player through (between him and the boards) and he gets his stick on the pass, deflecting it right to the slot

Apples HAS to seal his player off there to give his d man a chance to make that play
 

buggs

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Yeah ppl often routinely gloss over Helle's PO performances as of late. He was great in 17-18 for sure, that'll be 7(!) years ago now.
If he's our MVP of the regular season given his stats above the league, then he's certainly not played upto that standard in the PO's.
Leaping in off your post, no particular complaint about anything said here. Helle was less than stellar, no question.

I'd just like to take a moment to point out that the team in front of him was dogshit at the same time. So while it's true Helle didn't do his usual bailing out the Jets routine, it's not like he got any frigging help either, other than one game.

As something completely different as a consideration, I would suggest Hellebuyck is indeed the biggest problem with this team. He masks so much else that is wrong with the composition and play of the team that I think everyone overestimates the actual quality of the whole team. Had we had league average (or worse) goaltending over the past seven years we may have actually had to make some more difficult moves to address team composition.

I think this team is exactly what most folks expected at the start of the year: a playoff bubble team that likely loses in the first round. Should Helle pull a rabbit out of his hat, then maybe we go further. That 15-1 start was fun as hell and likely all but guarantees us a spot in the fun games. I still don't think the team is built for playoff hockey (due respect to Lowry, he is absolutely built for it) either on the front end or the back end.

Dissociating from that entirely: are we entirely certain that Heinola is garbage after what is it? 8 games? That's really not much of a period to get acclimated, especially when regularly paired with Stan (who has had how many years of rope and has demonstrated his ability to hang himself with it more frequently than one would like). I do think the team needs a player different from Heinola, because we have too many smaller D players, but I think it might be wiser to hold onto Heinola for a while and let Pionk go in free agency. I have no idea if Heinola can ever match "good" Pionk's approach, but I sure don't want to see the Jets pay through the nose for Pionk's later years.
 

Gm0ney

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Leaping in off your post, no particular complaint about anything said here. Helle was less than stellar, no question.

I'd just like to take a moment to point out that the team in front of him was dogshit at the same time. So while it's true Helle didn't do his usual bailing out the Jets routine, it's not like he got any frigging help either, other than one game.

As something completely different as a consideration, I would suggest Hellebuyck is indeed the biggest problem with this team. He masks so much else that is wrong with the composition and play of the team that I think everyone overestimates the actual quality of the whole team. Had we had league average (or worse) goaltending over the past seven years we may have actually had to make some more difficult moves to address team composition.

I think this team is exactly what most folks expected at the start of the year: a playoff bubble team that likely loses in the first round. Should Helle pull a rabbit out of his hat, then maybe we go further. That 15-1 start was fun as hell and likely all but guarantees us a spot in the fun games. I still don't think the team is built for playoff hockey (due respect to Lowry, he is absolutely built for it) either on the front end or the back end.

Dissociating from that entirely: are we entirely certain that Heinola is garbage after what is it? 8 games? That's really not much of a period to get acclimated, especially when regularly paired with Stan (who has had how many years of rope and has demonstrated his ability to hang himself with it more frequently than one would like). I do think the team needs a player different from Heinola, because we have too many smaller D players, but I think it might be wiser to hold onto Heinola for a while and let Pionk go in free agency. I have no idea if Heinola can ever match "good" Pionk's approach, but I sure don't want to see the Jets pay through the nose for Pionk's later years.
8 games on his off side paired with Stanley? The same setup that made Samberg look like crap in the playoffs last year. Yeah that seems like it's enough runway for Heinola.

What else are we going to do? Play him rain or shine for 160 games or so on his strong side in favorable situations with a solid partner? Come on...he's not 6'7"! :sarcasm:
 

Buffdog

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Leaping in off your post, no particular complaint about anything said here. Helle was less than stellar, no question.

I'd just like to take a moment to point out that the team in front of him was dogshit at the same time. So while it's true Helle didn't do his usual bailing out the Jets routine, it's not like he got any frigging help either, other than one game.

As something completely different as a consideration, I would suggest Hellebuyck is indeed the biggest problem with this team. He masks so much else that is wrong with the composition and play of the team that I think everyone overestimates the actual quality of the whole team. Had we had league average (or worse) goaltending over the past seven years we may have actually had to make some more difficult moves to address team composition.

I think this team is exactly what most folks expected at the start of the year: a playoff bubble team that likely loses in the first round. Should Helle pull a rabbit out of his hat, then maybe we go further. That 15-1 start was fun as hell and likely all but guarantees us a spot in the fun games. I still don't think the team is built for playoff hockey (due respect to Lowry, he is absolutely built for it) either on the front end or the back end.

Dissociating from that entirely: are we entirely certain that Heinola is garbage after what is it? 8 games? That's really not much of a period to get acclimated, especially when regularly paired with Stan (who has had how many years of rope and has demonstrated his ability to hang himself with it more frequently than one would like). I do think the team needs a player different from Heinola, because we have too many smaller D players, but I think it might be wiser to hold onto Heinola for a while and let Pionk go in free agency. I have no idea if Heinola can ever match "good" Pionk's approach, but I sure don't want to see the Jets pay through the nose for Pionk's later years.
A good goalie can mask bad forwards

In Edmonton, good forwards mask bad goaltending

When you construct a team, you can't be strong everywhere (especially when you're in the least desirable market in the league)

Would you like to trade Helle for a 3M goalie and upgrade the forwards with the difference in cap money?

It wonudn't be long and people wpuld be bitching about the goaltending
 

Jets 31

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Exactly--it's a full 22% of the season so it's worth listening to the message, not shooting the messenger. The Jets were not a .900 team, are not a sub-500 team, but arguably a top 10 team by virtue of an all-world goaltender. That means there is still work to do to optimize the D and top-6 to achieve playoff success, unless they want to lay it all on Helle again.

In that light, it's worth considering whether the team's critics might actually have their playoff best interests at heart, as opposed to its constant defenders.
Ya your right i want the Jets to lose in the first round again, it's so much fun, i love it. Maybe some on here are like me and see all the great things the Jets have done this season and have the potential to play like if they play their system. Why does all of that good play this season get washed away with a part of the season that we haven't played as well? We have played the most road games in the league, lets see what happens when we start playing some home games again. And I'm not saying that we are going to go on a huge winning streak because i have no idea what's going to happen just like everyone else.
 

Ponds

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I think if this season was observed in isolation, most would be over the moon with a 1st place Jets team a week from Christmas. When you include the results of the last two seasons, I sympathize with some of the concerns being expressed.

(Written for context) The Jets wriggled out of a near historic regular season collapse in 22-23, limping into the playoffs to be humbled by the Golden Knights. Rick Bowness gave a presser for the ages and big moves were made in the off-season. Wheeler was bought out and PLD traded, changing the look of the team. Surprisingly, they were able to resign Scheifele and Hellebuyck to long term deals. However, despite a steadier regular season the results in the playoffs were eerily similar, suffering another 4-1 series loss, dropping 4 straight to the Avalanche.

This is by and large the same group that got embarrassed last spring. Make no mistake, it was an embarrassment. So despite the NHL record start and being perched atop the standings, it's hard for some to shake the feeling of deja vu.

The old, fool me thrice.

Personally, I'm still chuffed with their spot amongst the other 31 clubs. A lot of that has to do with my lowered expectations for this campaign. After no significant upgrades over the summer, a head coach appointment you didn't need Zoltar to predict, I thought this team would take a dip and end up fighting for a playoff spot. The 15-1 start left me gobsmacked and renewed my belief in what these boys were capable of.

No doubt, the oft-mentioned roadtrip was disappointing, but with a couple of key injuries and so much travel it was excusable. That performance last night, was not. It may just be the worst, most lazy Jets effort of the season. Squeaking out a win would have been undeserved. Hopefully it's a needed wakeup call for the players & coach and will be the catalyst for improved play moving forward.

Certain players have been exceptional thus far. Kyle Connor, who faced heavy criticism at times last season, has taken a massive leap forward with his two way game. He's playing the best hockey of his career. The same can be said of Connor Hellebuyck. Josh Morrissey is an absolute stud and can always be counted on. Lowry doesn't have the same level of talent but he gives you all the heart and soul you'd want from a guy wearing the C. Samberg was included in that group before being injured.

There are also a handful of guys who are consistently inconsistent, from effort to decision making. They will need to be accounted for, and quickly, should this team have any hope of playing hockey once the flowers start blooming. I get frustrated at times with Sawyerisms regarding a team growing/learning etc. Most of these guys have been around, they should know the ropes by now. As I like to say, time will tell. Is there is a true contender here or has all the juice been squeezed?

One thing is for sure, we will find out.

Anyway, that's my 2 cents for whatever it's worth. If you're in the Cup or bust camp, you're probably going to be left sad when the dust of 24/25 settles. I'd actually be quite pleased with a division title and an advancement into the second round of the playoffs. That would show tangible improvement. Despite it not being valued the way it is in baseball, a banner in the rafters would be a nice start before dreams of more ambitious plundering.

Ultimately, I don't look that far ahead. The fortunes of these Winnipeg Jets could change drastically, for better or worse, over the coming months. I'm still very much enjoying the ride and the moment, even with some uninspired hockey of late. When I look over at what Sabres fans are enduring, I'll take our lot in life, all day, every day.

Go Jets Go
 

Adam da bomb

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Ehlers is having a terrible year in terms of 5v5 shot metrics.

Over the last 18 games, with Ehlers on the ice the Jets are getting buried. The Jets were doing significantly better without him (although still underwater for most of the shot metrics.

It's pretty unusual...
Good to know.
 

Adam da bomb

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I think if this season was observed in isolation, most would be over the moon with a 1st place Jets team a week from Christmas. When you include the results of the last two seasons, I sympathize with some of the concerns being expressed.

(Written for context) The Jets wriggled out of a near historic regular season collapse in 22-23, limping into the playoffs to be humbled by the Golden Knights. Rick Bowness gave a presser for the ages and big moves were made in the off-season. Wheeler was bought out and PLD traded, changing the look of the team. Surprisingly, they were able to resign Scheifele and Hellebuyck to long term deals. However, despite a steadier regular season the results in the playoffs were eerily similar, suffering another 4-1 series loss, dropping 4 straight to the Avalanche.

This is by and large the same group that got embarrassed last spring. Make no mistake, it was an embarrassment. So despite the NHL record start and being perched atop the standings, it's hard for some to shake the feeling of deja vu.

The old, fool me thrice.

Personally, I'm still chuffed with their spot amongst the other 31 clubs. A lot of that has to do with my lowered expectations for this campaign. After no significant upgrades over the summer, a head coach appointment you didn't need Zoltar to predict, I thought this team would take a dip and end up fighting for a playoff spot. The 15-1 start left me gobsmacked and renewed my belief in what these boys were capable of.

No doubt, the oft-mentioned roadtrip was disappointing, but with a couple of key injuries and so much travel it was excusable. That performance last night, was not. It may just be the worst, most lazy Jets effort of the season. Squeaking out a win would have been undeserved. Hopefully it's a needed wakeup call for the players & coach and will be the catalyst for improved play moving forward.

Certain players have been exceptional thus far. Kyle Connor, who faced heavy criticism at times last season, has taken a massive leap forward with his two way game. He's playing the best hockey of his career. The same can be said of Connor Hellebuyck. Josh Morrissey is an absolute stud and can always be counted on. Lowry doesn't have the same level of talent but he gives you all the heart and soul you'd want from a guy wearing the C. Samberg was included in that group before being injured.

There are also a handful of guys who are consistently inconsistent, from effort to decision making. They will need to be accounted for, and quickly, should this team have any hope of playing hockey once the flowers start blooming. I get frustrated at times with Sawyerisms regarding a team growing/learning etc. Most of these guys have been around, they should know the ropes by now. As I like to say, time will tell. Is there is a true contender here or has all the juice been squeezed?

One thing is for sure, we will find out.

Anyway, that's my 2 cents for whatever it's worth. If you're in the Cup or bust camp, you're probably going to be left sad when the dust of 24/25 settles. I'd actually be quite pleased with a division title and an advancement into the second round of the playoffs. That would show tangible improvement. Despite it not being valued the way it is in baseball, a banner in the rafters would be a nice start before dreams of more ambitious plundering.

Ultimately, I don't look that far ahead. The fortunes of these Winnipeg Jets could change drastically, for better or worse, over the coming months. I'm still very much enjoying the ride and the moment, even with some uninspired hockey of late. When I look over at what Sabres fans are enduring, I'll take our lot in life, all day, every day.

Go Jets Go
Well said.
 
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Buffdog

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For everyone saying that Helle is the only thing holding this team together...

Hon do you account for the fact that the Jets lead the league in goals scored?

I bet people will say "it's because of their power play"... and i bet there are hundreds of posts from last year by those exact same posters bitching about the power play

I think the only way that some people will be happy is if all the following criteria are met:

1. Jets must always outshoot their opponents
2. The power play must be good, but not so good that it eclipses 5v5 play
3. Jets must win all 5v5 matchups all the time
4. Goaltending must be good, but also not so good as to gloss over any 5v5 deficiencies there are
5. Stanley should be executed publically
 

JetsWillFly4Ever

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As something completely different as a consideration, I would suggest Hellebuyck is indeed the biggest problem with this team. He masks so much else that is wrong with the composition and play of the team that I think everyone overestimates the actual quality of the whole team. Had we had league average (or worse) goaltending over the past seven years we may have actually had to make some more difficult moves to address team composition.
I agree with this 100%.

The team as constructed's path to winning, is have Helle play out of his mind for an entire playoff run. They have 0.0% chance of winning without Helle being on top of his game, virtually every single night in the playoffs.

So far, there is no evidence that he is capable of this in the playoffs, but we know he can do it in the regular season so we just hope he gets hot at the right time.
 
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Gm0ney

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A good goalie can mask bad forwards

In Edmonton, good forwards mask bad goaltending

When you construct a team, you can't be strong everywhere (especially when you're in the least desirable market in the league)

Would you like to trade Helle for a 3M goalie and upgrade the forwards with the difference in cap money?

It wonudn't be long and people wpuld be bitching about the goaltending
Even with great skaters in front of him, a bad goalie will be clearly apparent. When you finally get a modicum of decent goaltending, that team can make some noise (like the Oilers last year). Teams win despite shaky goaltending and so when they start getting some saves it's like they've been swinging with two bats in the warmup circle.

But when all your eggs are in the goaltending basket, you're absolutely f***ed if he goes cold (like the Jets last year). The team tends to count on mistakes being mostly inconsequential and when they suddenly have the rug pulled out they panic and disaster ensues.

Yeah you can't be strong everywhere, but when you have nearly guaranteed elite goaltending, that should make it easier to fill the holes. Instead it seems to paper over problems and make it harder.
 

FlappyGiraffe

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chevy needs to be aggressive and find a solution at the 2c, don't know who that will be but right now we have 2 lines that give us hardly anything
Give up the farm for Tage Thompson from Buffalo imo, we won't need Lambert or Yager with Scheifele and Tage locked up until the 2030s.

Guy is a freak, a 6'7" 50 goal center
 

johnnyonthspot

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Having a 1 goal lead with 5 minutes to play and not leaving with at least a point is pretty poor. It's a back to back on the west coast, but it's also against a team at the bottom of the standings and they come out completely flat.

Thought Connor played well. Nice hustle and his entire shift for the 2nd goal was elite. Great 1 timer by Scheifele as well.

Terrible decision by Pionk to try a pass towards the middle of the ice with seconds left on the clock. Off the glass in that scenario would seem to be the play.

Really feeling for Comrie. It feels like everytime he plays he having to stand on his head, and he's making acrobatic saves to keep the team in it. But they seem to reserve poor showings for him and give him bot very much support.
The poor pass by pionk is overshadowing Fleury losing the net front battle on the Quack's second goal Quack's second goal. Overall attention to detail is lacking.
These guys crumble under the pressure of being forechecked.

Comrie is having really bad luck.
 

DRW204

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Dec 26, 2010
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Leaping in off your post, no particular complaint about anything said here. Helle was less than stellar, no question.

I'd just like to take a moment to point out that the team in front of him was dogshit at the same time. So while it's true Helle didn't do his usual bailing out the Jets routine, it's not like he got any frigging help either, other than one game.

As something completely different as a consideration, I would suggest Hellebuyck is indeed the biggest problem with this team. He masks so much else that is wrong with the composition and play of the team that I think everyone overestimates the actual quality of the whole team. Had we had league average (or worse) goaltending over the past seven years we may have actually had to make some more difficult moves to address team composition.

I think this team is exactly what most folks expected at the start of the year: a playoff bubble team that likely loses in the first round. Should Helle pull a rabbit out of his hat, then maybe we go further. That 15-1 start was fun as hell and likely all but guarantees us a spot in the fun games. I still don't think the team is built for playoff hockey (due respect to Lowry, he is absolutely built for it) either on the front end or the back end.

Dissociating from that entirely: are we entirely certain that Heinola is garbage after what is it? 8 games? That's really not much of a period to get acclimated, especially when regularly paired with Stan (who has had how many years of rope and has demonstrated his ability to hang himself with it more frequently than one would like). I do think the team needs a player different from Heinola, because we have too many smaller D players, but I think it might be wiser to hold onto Heinola for a while and let Pionk go in free agency. I have no idea if Heinola can ever match "good" Pionk's approach, but I sure don't want to see the Jets pay through the nose for Pionk's later years.
The Jets definitely did not play well against the Avs, you don't have a historically bad GA/gp without it being a team effort.

Especially considering the Jets dominated the Avs last year, including a 7-0 ass whoop a few days before the PO series began. Do you think the criticism has been proportionate bw Helle and the team? I don't think so but just my view.

Having said that, call it harsh or unfair, but I'm judging Helle vs his regular season standards vs the rest of the league. Granted, I expect him to be closer to the pack in the PO's, but not at the definition of career mid.. Keep in mind from that OP you quoted, he's commonly way above average in sv% in the regular season.

In the PO's from 2017-2018 to date
PO sv% is 0.913
Helle is 0.911
 
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Buffdog

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Even with great skaters in front of him, a bad goalie will be clearly apparent. When you finally get a modicum of decent goaltending, that team can make some noise (like the Oilers last year). Teams win despite shaky goaltending and so when they start getting some saves it's like they've been swinging with two bats in the warmup circle.

But when all your eggs are in the goaltending basket, you're absolutely f***ed if he goes cold (like the Jets last year). The team tends to count on mistakes being mostly inconsequential and when they suddenly have the rug pulled out they panic and disaster ensues.

Yeah you can't be strong everywhere, but when you have nearly guaranteed elite goaltending, that should make it easier to fill the holes. Instead it seems to paper over problems and make it harder.
I don't disagree with the sentiment

But I don't think the Jets qualify as an example for the idea as an example of that this season (at least), because their eggs are spread into multiple baskets

They lead the league in goals scored and in PP. Two of their lines rank in the top 20 in terms of goal differential (as you posted earlier)

They need upgrades on D (Samberg returning will help). The more I watch them, the more apparent it becomes that the biggest hole is at 1RD and that's not an easy one to fill
 
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Adam da bomb

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Even with great skaters in front of him, a bad goalie will be clearly apparent. When you finally get a modicum of decent goaltending, that team can make some noise (like the Oilers last year). Teams win despite shaky goaltending and so when they start getting some saves it's like they've been swinging with two bats in the warmup circle.

But when all your eggs are in the goaltending basket, you're absolutely f***ed if he goes cold (like the Jets last year). The team tends to count on mistakes being mostly inconsequential and when they suddenly have the rug pulled out they panic and disaster ensues.

Yeah you can't be strong everywhere, but when you have nearly guaranteed elite goaltending, that should make it easier to fill the holes. Instead it seems to paper over problems and make it harder.
But, I don't think all their eggs are in the goalie basket. Kc is playing like a superstar this season.
 

Huffer

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It's interesting you bring that up, and I think that it speaks to an earlier post I made about zone exits (specifically the idea of running some picks, etc)

If you go back to watch the play, Names is in perfect close support position for a short pass. The lane is there, but Appleton lets the Ducks player through (between him and the boards) and he gets his stick on the pass, deflecting it right to the slot

Apples HAS to seal his player off there to give his d man a chance to make that play
True, there's likely a lot of little details that the players are missing in order to improve the breakouts. That pass is likely there 90 times out of a hundred, just hate to see it with a minute or so left in a time game.
 

WolfHouse

Registered User
Oct 4, 2020
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Man, this fan base is traumatized... panic button and first place in the league - not sure Im not leaning that way too though

Jets are in their annual December slump that is covered up by winning against some bad teams - plus three worrying trends in terms of history repeating itself
- over-passing/not getting net front traffic
- lazy/ill-timed shift changes
- cheating on our system

Not HUGE problems but they never are... until mid-January

One very real challenge is that the system is based on D rush and forwards backchecking/covering - but Fleury, Stan, DeMelo and Heinola aren't playing that style and forwards are cheating - Heinola 'could' when he gets confidence and Stan should really stop because he doesn't have the speed...

Arniel was really clear that we wanted a heavy shot from the blue line - instead the team has drifted back to one-timers from the faceoff circle - which is still working but in the past seasons, teams have found a way to seal that off by mid-season

Samberg and a healthy Ehlers should help - but this team needs to get dialed back into Arniel's system at 5v5 fast.

Sorry, I'm suffering from recency bias. Stanley has gotten better as the season has gone in, Demelo worse.

Also, anything Garret posts is self-serving and likely to be tainted with confirmation bias and cognitive dissonance with regards to Stanley
tenor.gif
 

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