Dubas' Timeline

[BusinessGoose]

Problem with this part though, is that other teams are getting better and better while we are getting worse and worse. We are also aging in a worse way than the other teams in the East.

So to focus on two years of "BARELY MISSING!" doesn't tell the whole story. Those other teams are getting better and other teams that missed are now going to be pushing harder.

Also agree above to the 'mushy middle' sentiment. Doesn't make sense and really doesn't make sense for any of Sid/Letang/Geno/Karlsson either. Sid should request a trade because, of the 4, he can actually make a difference on any team in the NHL whereas the others might help might not.

Oh i get it. Anyone watching the team the last two years knew they had no chance.

But i think the owners and front office really think a few puck bounces would have changed anything.

We have a worse roster than last year, right now.

But i think they think this is contending.

Realistically, there's no way in the 3 years max we would have sid left here.

 

[molon labe]

2026/2027 is the last possible shot with this group. The plan is probably to have prospects contributing by then/Malkin and Letang fully transitioned to role players, and to have brought in a new young nucleus. There’s really not enough time though, time to do that was 2021 not 2024.

Overall the plan is not to fight tooth and nail to just make the playoffs but get enough assets so that when the wheels fall off completely for the core the system is strong and it doesn’t take another 5-8 years to rebuild

Why wouldn't you want those assets in the system now, though, is the biggest point. Any sentiment of selling a Karlsson 2 years from now or Pettersson 4 years from now makes zero sense.

You should want early draft picks this past year (year prior), next year, etc. Those picks are going to take several years to pan out - so even drafting in 2025 you're looking 2027-2028 earliest to look like Chicago and 2030s to compete. Why delay that? And yes it's delaying it. Pettersson DID save some goals last year whereas a replacement nobody who sucks would certainly have missed those chances and resulted in even more losses (better draft picks).

I think the surest way to suck is gut the D corps. The forward group is already not good enough, nor is the goaltending, nor is the coach. But this team would look downright awful without their PMD and Pettersson. Just a thought to the whole 'process' that we're seeing .... unfold?

 

[KrisLetAngry]

If I was Dubas and we are looking out of the playoffs. I'd ask if I could trade Crosby for assets and then sign him back for next year.

I know that tends to not happen in the NHL world but realistically I can not see us competing for much unless some young players step up a ton. Let's be real young players with Sully rarely get to step up.

 

[Pens1566]

Not this season, but the next? But that would take several miracles.

Pipe dream.

 

[Hell Yeah!!!]

I think he’s going to tank this year and then try to run it back next year tbh.

How can he "tank" with the current roster? While at best a playoff bubble roster, its not bottom three, so maybe different definitions of tank.

To me Dubas can't tank even if he wanted to, he just can't signal that. But what we do with assets at the trade deadline is the key. So tanking would be trading Jarry now, he can't really do that and still plausibly say they're trying to be a winner this year. But trade him at the deadline, a la Guentzel....he can do that and thats the closest to tank we'll get as long as the core are here.

 

[Turin]

If I was Dubas and we are looking out of the playoffs. I'd ask if I could trade Crosby for assets and then sign him back for next year.

I know that tends to not happen in the NHL world but realistically I can not see us competing for much unless some young players step up a ton. Let's be real young players with Sully rarely get to step up.

Nah, I would pay to never see Sid in another jersey. Even if it’s for 20 games

 

[Peat]

If I was Dubas and we are looking out of the playoffs. I'd ask if I could trade Crosby for assets and then sign him back for next year.

I know that tends to not happen in the NHL world but realistically I can not see us competing for much unless some young players step up a ton. Let's be real young players with Sully rarely get to step up.

Nah, I would pay to never see Sid in another jersey. Even if it’s for 20 games

a) This
b) Right now the pitch to Sid is you get to be a Penguin and nothing but a Penguin. Even a rental spoils that pitch.

How can he "tank" with the current roster? While at best a playoff bubble roster, its not bottom three, so maybe different definitions of tank.

To me Dubas can't tank even if he wanted to, he just can't signal that. But what we do with assets at the trade deadline is the key. So tanking would be trading Jarry now, he can't really do that and still plausibly say they're trying to be a winner this year. But trade him at the deadline, a la Guentzel....he can do that and thats the closest to tank we'll get as long as the core are here.

The problem with trading Jarry is nobody wanting him, not him being an essential player.

 

[SEALBound]

I think 2-3 years is where they hope to on the upswing. Down now, recoup, retool, raise again in 2027-2029. Not unlike Boston did, not unlike the NYR did (speaking more about getting Laf and Kaks. Yes, I get Fox and Panarin but the hope would be the low picks you accrue would be more impactful than those two).

I think if all goes well, you have a 1C replacement at 2C, you have a future top pairing guy either through the draft, trade, or FA, and the current crop is providing solid, impact play - Howe, Yager, Pono, Koivunen, Pickering, and 1-2 others.

 

[Epic Neal Time]

I think the optimistic plan is this. All are opening night rosters.

Notes: Assumes everyone leaves after current contracts except Crosby and open spots are filled with developed/drafted players/acquisitions.

2024 - Get High Pick/Rebuild

O'Connor - Crosby - Rust
Bunting - Malkin - Rakell
Eller - Hayes - Puustinen
Ponomarev - Lizotte - Beauvillier
Acciari/Poulin

Gryzelcyk - Letang
Pettersson - Karlsson
Graves - St. Ivany
Ludvig

2025 - Compete for Spot with Youth / Rebuild

( ) - Crosby - Rust
Bunting - Malkin - Rakell
Koivunen - Hayes - Yager
Ponomarev - Lizotte - Poulin

Graves - Letang
( ) - Karlsson
Pickering - St. Ivany

2026 - Playoff team with a developed roster/bigger adds, Geno retires


Koivunen - Crosby - Rust
Ilyin - Yager - Rakell
Howe - Ponomarev - ( )
( ) - ( ) - ( )

Pickering - Letang
( ) - Karlsson
Graves - St. Ivany

2027 - Cup Contender

2028 - Crosby/Letang retire

It will be so, so, so difficult and requires our top prospects to develop on their current trajectories.

Yes, this is basically

1. Retool
2. ?
3. Cup Contenders

 

[ThosePuckingPenguins]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1808160256574316624

Yeah I think if they were just a little more forward with this, the fanbase reaction wouldn’t be so bad.

 

[steelcityassault]

If I was Dubas and we are looking out of the playoffs. I'd ask if I could trade Crosby for assets and then sign him back for next year.

I know that tends to not happen in the NHL world but realistically I can not see us competing for much unless some young players step up a ton. Let's be real young players with Sully rarely get to step up.

The league wouldn't even let JR re-acquire Carl Hagelin

 

[Zbynek]

Without being ruthless regarding the supporting cast, I think there is no way this will actually happen and this is just the GM lying as per usual.

I don't trust a single word out of this guy's mouth. Dubas to me is an absolute rat. A post Hextall nightmare scenario.

 

[Tom Hanks]

The league wouldn't even let JR re-acquire Carl Hagelin

Because JR didn’t know the rules on retention trades.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

The league wouldn't even let JR re-acquire Carl Hagelin

I believe you can't re-aquire a player within a year if they were signed. I am 100% certain you can trade a player and sign them back at free agency.

 

[DesertPenguin]

Taking Dubas at his word (questionble), it would have to be at a time when our bad contracts expire and our kids are ready to play. Rakell and Graves have contracts so long I don't think we can wait for them. After that it's a bunch of guys on one year and two year deals. Hayes, Acciari, Ned and Malkin are up in two. That seems like the logical time to make a go. Suck this year, get back to the playoffs next year, and actually try the year after. We'll see what Geno wants to do by then but the rest are gone. By then also Yager, Blomqvist, Koivunen, Pono, Poulin, Pickering, Broz and maybe one or two more will be ready. Any selling we do this year should return prospects on that same timeline.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Yeah I think it's just lip service by Dubas to convince fans that this isn't a rebuild so people keep buying tickets.

I do think Dubas is trying to keep the team as competitive as possible in the short term as he sells off pieces and gains assets (such as trading Smith/Eller and signing Tarasenko/Lizotte to replace them), but the reality is that this team is rebuilding. It's just a "soft" rebuild because Dubas can't tear it down with Crosby and Malkin still here. Both from a "they deserve to have a competent team in their last few years here" aspect and a "most guys on this roster are probably not tradeable for value right now" aspect.

 

[Sideline]

Yeah I think it's just lip service by Dubas to convince fans that this isn't a rebuild so people keep buying tickets.

I do think Dubas is trying to keep the team as competitive as possible in the short term as he sells off pieces and gains assets (such as trading Smith/Eller and signing Tarasenko/Lizotte to replace them), but the reality is that this team is rebuilding. It's just a "soft" rebuild because Dubas can't tear it down with Crosby and Malkin still here. Both from a "they deserve to have a competent team in their last few years here" aspect and a "most guys on this roster are probably not tradeable for value right now" aspect.

I think his perfect outcome is similar to the year when the Leafs drafted Matthews. That was a dignified tank. The Leafs lost a ton of games, but they were almost always 1 goal games. That sucks, but not nearly as bad as the Sharks of last year when they were getting blown out every night.

 

[BusinessGoose]

Also, to be clear, we would all still bitch JUST as much if they told us they were rebuilding.

Because WE know wouldn't be doing the right moves anyway.

They never do. We always do.

That's fans.


... But this middle ground thing is also annoying.

 

[SomeDude]

I think his perfect outcome is similar to the year when the Leafs drafted Matthews. That was a dignified tank. The Leafs lost a ton of games, but they were almost always 1 goal games. That sucks, but not nearly as bad as the Sharks of last year when they were getting blown out every night.

That’s like counting on scratch offs for your retirement.

It can theoretically happen, but odds are you’ll be spending your golden years sleeping in the streets.

Sid should start learning how to play Saxophone.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think his perfect outcome is similar to the year when the Leafs drafted Matthews. That was a dignified tank. The Leafs lost a ton of games, but they were almost always 1 goal games. That sucks, but not nearly as bad as the Sharks of last year when they were getting blown out every night.

No, I don't think that's what Dubas is looking for.

In the short term, he wants this team to be a fringe playoff team while they're gradually selling off assets for draft picks to build up the prospect pool. As soon as Crosby and Malkin retire, the roster is getting nuked and they're going full blown rebuild.

Malkin probably retires after the 2026 season and I think the tear down really starts at that point.

 

[Lust for Life]

I genuinely think they (ownership, staff) want to try and contend as much as possible these last few years with the core. I don't think it's just lip service. I think there's a few of reasons why, ownership wants to make money, they want to "give back" to Sid, Geno and Tanger if you understand what I mean (giving them at least a snowballs chance in hell at winning), and I'm sure a few more reasons I can't think of.

You could argue that a full blown rebuild is the way to go, yes, but then I wouldn't be surprised (but I don't know them, so I can't say for certain) if it's bye bye to Sid and Geno. And I can't imagine ownership and staff getting a pass for trading them/letting them walk

 

[Peat]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1808160256574316624

Yeah I think if they were just a little more forward with this, the fanbase reaction wouldn’t be so bad.

I don't get this. The Dubas quotes and media articles I've seen are very specific that there will be a rebuild, just hopefully a very quick one.



I also think theories about how truthful this goal is will possibly founder when we see Crosby's new contract. I don't see a tear down while Crosby is here and right now they're talking like he's going to be here a long time. If the contract is shorter it will make more sense.

 

[SomeDude]

I don't get this. The Dubas quotes and media articles I've seen are very specific that there will be a rebuild, just hopefully a very quick one.

There’s also no way we could compare our rebuild to NYR because star players are not going to force their way to live in our city. Unless they too have a fetish for putting fries on anything edible.

I don’t get the comparison at all. Other than hoping our rebuild is like the Rangers and not like the Sabres.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don't want to see Crosby play for another team, but the objective truth IMO is that the sooner Crosby leaves, the better it is for the team to actually make the changes it needs.

I think the best case scenario for the Penguins is Crosby re-signs for a 1 year deal, plays at the Olympics in 2026 and he and Malkin retire together after the 2026 season. But it sounds like Crosby's extension is going to be in the 3 year range, which just complicates things.

I also think it makes it more likely Malkin doesn't retire and is retained after the 2026 off-season, which is another thing I don't particularly want to see happen.

 

[Gurglesons]

I don't get this. The Dubas quotes and media articles I've seen are very specific that there will be a rebuild, just hopefully a very quick one.

I also think theories about how truthful this goal is will possibly founder when we see Crosby's new contract. I don't see a tear down while Crosby is here and right now they're talking like he's going to be here a long time. If the contract is shorter it will make more sense.

They keep on saying they are going to rebuild and be competitive with the guys in the room.

I think the issue is everyone knows if we rebuild the guys in the room aren't going to be here.