Prospect Info: Draft Thread | Oilers Hold The 4th Overall Selection

[alphahelix]

1st Forward Draft Pick Overall by Year:
2010-11 Red Deer Rebels WHL 69GP 31G 75A 106PTS Playoffs: 9GP 4G 7A 11P RNH

2011-12 Sarnia Sting OHL 42GP 31G 38A 69PTS Playoffs: 6GP 2G 3A 5P YAK

2013-14 Kootenay Ice WHL 60GP 36G 69A 105PTS Playoffs: 13GP 6G 17A 23P S. REINHART

2015-16 London Knights OHL 57GP 30G 77A 107PTS Playoffs: 14GP 16G 17A 33P <<<< Tkachuk.

Oh wait, that last guy is slated to be picked 4th or lower this year.

Meanwhile, in the playoffs PLD has 12 points in 12 games. Almost 3 times less! Still close, though.

I know Tkachuk has elite linemates but I think it would be perilous to overthink this pick.

McDavid aside, Tkachuk is the highest producing top ranked draft eligible junior player since Taylor Hall. Hall had 1 fewer point in the regular season, but 2 more points in the playoffs, making the difference between them 1 point.

Am I missing anyone else? MacKinnon and Tkachuk tied for Playoff points but Tkachuk played many more games (and scored many more points) in the regular season.

 

[KarmaPolice]

Should trade for a Dman, and not another Reinhart, but someone more proven, using just the pick or as part of a package if that's what's needed to get a deal done for a proven top-3 (hopefully top-2) Dman. But if they can't get full value for the pick, than I think it's easily Dubois. The top 3 are separated from the rest, but so is #4 with Dubois. I see the draft like this:

Matthews
Laine

Pulju

Dubois

Tkachuk
etc.

Matthews and Laine are close together as 1-2, then Pulju is a bit behind, but ahead of number 3, and the same goes for Dubois at #4 -- he's the easy, easy pick at number 4. After that is when anything can happen.

 

[Rafters]

Take Dubois....he will be exempt from expansion draft , high end power forward is a need for this team as well...trade roster players and next yrs picks for defence

 

[LTIR]

Should trade for a Dman, and not another Reinhart, but someone more proven, using just the pick or as part of a package if that's what's needed to get a deal done for a proven top-3 (hopefully top-2) Dman. But if they can't get full value for the pick, than I think it's easily Dubois. The top 3 are separated from the rest, but so is #4 with Dubois. I see the draft like this:

Matthews
Laine

Pulju

Dubois

Tkachuk
etc.

Matthews and Laine are close together as 1-2, then Pulju is a bit behind, but ahead of number 3, and the same goes for Dubois at #4 -- he's the easy, easy pick at number 4. After that is when anything can happen.

well that is not how Chiarelli sees it.. as per him the tier after top 3 os of 8 prospects pretty much lumped together.
It shows that Chia is willing to move down to 10th overall if he can pick up a good asset..

(Stolen from the main boards proposed by a BUF fan) Bogosian+BUF 1st for 4th overall + Reinhart could be one example.



Also, Chiarelli seems to be extra high on Tkachuk... would be scouting him closely if he makes it to Mem cup..

 

[booyakasha]

I like PL Dubois....I hope we draft him.
kid is awesome.

 

[Hynh]

Gagner had skill, his issues were his lack of strength and two way play. I don't think that Tkachuk should have it held against him that he was on a dominant line.

It's not so much that he plays on a good line as the fact that his production is lower (fair enough, he's the youngest) AND it is shifted more to his assists than the other two. Naturally, I'm aware that a player's goals are also the product of his teammates (Aaron Berisha) but I think assists are far easier to fluff up in junior, where a talented player can take a 5 foot pass and then walk around the defence.

It's not a proven model but I prefer players that are goal scorers because it means they are either the last puck carrier, are in the tough areas around the net, have an elite shot or some combination of the three.

Since Dubois had the most assists on his team we don't have to worry about some elite playmaker feeding him tip ins either. The Oilers aren't going to be hurting for playmakers with McDavid, RNH and Draisaitl so balance isn't an issue.

1st forward draft pick overall by year:
2010-11 red deer rebels whl 69gp 31g 75a 106pts playoffs: 9gp 4g 7a 11p

2011-12 sarnia sting ohl 42gp 31g 38a 69pts playoffs: 6gp 2g 3a 5p

2013-14 kootenay ice whl 60gp 36g 69a 105pts playoffs: 13gp 6g 17a 23p

2015-16 london knights ohl 57gp 30g 77a 107pts playoffs: 14gp 16g 17a 33p <<<< tkachuk.

oh wait, that last guy is slated to be picked 4th or lower this year.

Meanwhile, in the playoffs pld has 12 points in 12 games. Almost 3 times less! Still close, though.

I know tkachuk has elite linemates but i think it would be perilous to overthink this pick.

On the other hand, if it holds the value that it ought to with these types of players available, i think we can all get behind trading it...

53gp 35g 83a, 118pts playoffs: 16gp 7g, 22a, 29pts. This guy went even lower.

As for playoff points, 4gp 1g 2a 3pts. Disappointing, right?

Also, Chiarelli seems to be extra high on Tkachuk... would be scouting him closely if he makes it to Mem cup..

Was this before or after the lottery? Could be a smokescreen to safeguard against a fall to 5th.

 

[M2Beezy]

I think Chych makes the most sense for the oilers moving fwd

 

[alphahelix]

Who is the guy with *118 pts, Hynh?
Edit: Oh, I can see its Sammy G. Not a deterrent, IMO. Sam was not the top ranked junior player that year, while Tkachuk is. This is probably due to Tkachuk having more size and tenacity. Tkachuk will have an easier transition.


My point is 99 pts in the regular season and 12 points in the playoffs is fine for 4th overall I guess, but 107 and 33 pts is fine for 1st overall.

 

[McWeber]

I think Chych makes the most sense for the oilers moving fwd

yet another LHD prospect? We need RHD now more than anything. Our prospect pool has nothing but left handed defense.

 

[LTIR]

I think Chych makes the most sense for the oilers moving fwd

Says the canucks fan..

If Chychrun was a RHD then sure... at #4 he shouldnt be an option. VAN can have him at 5

 

[Bear91]

Trade the pick, but Dubois would be the choice. Really wish one of the top D was a RHD

 

[HeavyHitter99]

1st Forward Draft Pick Overall by Year:
2010-11 Red Deer Rebels WHL 69GP 31G 75A 106PTS Playoffs: 9GP 4G 7A 11P RNH

2011-12 Sarnia Sting OHL 42GP 31G 38A 69PTS Playoffs: 6GP 2G 3A 5P YAK

2013-14 Kootenay Ice WHL 60GP 36G 69A 105PTS Playoffs: 13GP 6G 17A 23P S. REINHART

2015-16 London Knights OHL 57GP 30G 77A 107PTS Playoffs: 14GP 16G 17A 33P <<<< Tkachuk.

Oh wait, that last guy is slated to be picked 4th or lower this year.

Meanwhile, in the playoffs PLD has 12 points in 12 games. Almost 3 times less! Still close, though.

I know Tkachuk has elite linemates but I think it would be perilous to overthink this pick.

McDavid aside, Tkachuk is the highest producing top ranked draft eligible junior player since Taylor Hall. Hall had 1 fewer point in the regular season, but 2 more points in the playoffs, making the difference between them 1 point.

Am I missing anyone else? MacKinnon and Tkachuk tied for Playoff points but Tkachuk played many more games (and scored many more points) in the regular season.

Congrats, you know how to look at stats.

 

[alphahelix]

Congrats, you know how to look at stats.

I'm also probably the only poster on this board who lives in Cape Breton and gets to see the Eagles play regularly. Plot twist.

 

[McBooya42]

free speach

trade the damn pick

Start your own damn thread instead of high jacking this one. No trade allowed in this one...it's clearly specified.
Dubois for me.

 

[HeavyHitter99]

Who is the guy with *118 pts, Hynh?

My point is 99 pts in the regular season and 12 points in the playoffs is fine for 4th overall I guess, but 107 pts and 33 pts is fine for 1st overall.

You need to watch him play and then you'll understand why Tkachuk isn't ranked close to 1st overall. He's a skilled player who despite reports isn't physical (but can be a pest), his skating needs improvement and he doesn't help out defensively. But hey maybe Sam Gagner should be a 1st overall pick? Tkachuk is the third wheel on his line just fyi, I'm a big of his and have been for 3 years now but he isn't what the Oilers need. Dubois on the other hand is big, fast, gritty and he plays a 2-way game. He drives the lines he plays on and actually improved his production when his linemates were at the WJC. But he lacks consistency which will likely improve in with more experience.

Something to consider.

 

[HeavyHitter99]

I'm also probably the only poster on this board who lives in Cape Breton and gets to see the Eagles play regularly. Plot twist.

And how much have you watched Tkachuk?

 

[Patch101]

Ya, I'm amused at how many people didn't read the ..... if its not traded, who would u pick bit.

I'm trying to see what people think in terms of best available option if we do pick, and why. Of course I think a trade for a D would be best, but **** happens right?
There is another thread for that anyways

Glad to see nobody bring up Nylander. I think we all know he's exactly what we don't need.

 

[Spawn]

Preference is obviously to trade the pick. But the offer has to be right. (I'd do it for Hamonic+ or Vatanen+ or someone better straight up. But neither of those two straight up).

Failing that, admittedly not knowing a tonne about any of these prospects I'd probably go for Chychrun. Although that's with knowing the least about Sergachev. Who sounds pretty intriguing.

I'm not overly concerned about the fact that they are LHD. Everyone in the draft available at 4 is a year or two away from contributing to the team. Who knows what the make up of the Oilers will be at that point.

I will say that I think it's foolhardy to suggest trading someone off the roster and assuming that whoever we pick at 4 can be their replacement right away. If you need to trade someone off the roster, so be it. But that player will need to be replaced with a real NHLer. Not whoever the Oilers draft at 4.

 

[Gambl0r83*]

We won't get the right value to trade the 4th overall pick. Teams know what we want, and we will always get lowballed. Not worth trading

With the fourth overall selection in the 2016 NHL Entry draft, The Edmonton Oilers are pleased to select from the Sarnia Sting, Jakob Chychrun (the next OEL)

 

[alphahelix]

And how much have you watched Tkachuk?

Clearly not as much, but he sure seems to do just fine when he is playing without Marner on the US National Team. Looked pretty good to me, and the stats back it up.

Auston Matthews: USA WJC-20 7GP 7G 4A 11P

Tkachuk: USA WJC-20 7GP 4G 7A 11P

I think Tkachuk is going to be a fine NHL player based on what I've seen and the stats. Patrick Kane had less playoff points than Tkachuk.

Dubois is a quality player all-around, but I doubt he has the offensive upside of Tkachuk.

 

[HeavyHitter99]

We won't get the right value to trade the 4th overall pick. Teams know what we want, and we will always get lowballed. Not worth trading

With the fourth overall selection in the 2016 NHL Entry draft, The Edmonton Oilers are pleased to select from the Sarnia Sting, Jakob Chychrun (the next OEL)

The next OEL that plays nothing like OEL...

 

[Patch101]

On the 3 D-men. I found a site called Draftsite? Mentions this about the players:

Mikhail Sergachev
Big tough mobile import defenseman playing in the OHL with a strong heavy point shot. A difficult player to beat one on one because he possesses a strong stride and excellent East-West lateral mobility. Relishes been able to get a big check in on opponents both along the boards and in open-ice. Has good vision and in transition makes good home run outlet passes. And although he on occasion will hold on to pucks a bit long, or get careless in his carries, he displays good passing skills. When you see a junior defender with this size ,mobility mixed with a dose of nasty, you have to think he goes off the board early no matter how much the pro game is evolving

Olli Juolevi
Finnish import defenseman with a good frame and excellent offensive instincts. Displays significant upside as prospect who can eventually be a two way defender. Maintain good gaps and has an active stick. An excellent stickhandler who can be very poised with the puck. Is athletic and mobile and reads the ice well. Is a crisp long distance passer in transition and can also carry the mail out of the zone. Not adverse to going the rush, is an excellent PP QB, and has a strong hard point shot along with a long range writs shot. Very fluid and has a great feel for the offensive end. Has some physicality and will tie opponents on the wall.It is difficult to estimate exactly where he gets selected in the first round. There are plenty of reasons teams would value his vision and instinct in the attacking part of the game, but if you ask scouts which parts of junior defense’s games are most important, backward skating and handling the defensive part of the game rank rank high. He has trouble handling quicker forwards in his end, and also gets out-muscled in the dirty areas, along the wall and when in possession. He needs to get harder on the stick. These are parts of the game that can be improved upon and he does have a some bite to his game, so he is a pretty nice defensive prospect even with the parts he needs to develop.

Jacob Chychrun
Each player that was granted early entrance exceptional status into Canadian junior leagues is heaped with platitudes and criticized through strong microscopes. Continue up the ladder to the NHL takes a larger developmental commitment for a defensive prospect than a forward. The son of former NHL player, Jeff, plays with a calm demeanor, good feet, lateral agility and physicality. An elite defensive prospect with a tremendous package of talent. Already physically developed, he is a terrific skater with a separation gear, and a hard cutting stride and a skating base that lets him protect the puck. Possesses a strong wrist shot and is able to stickhandle with precision and accuracy through traffic. He is polished two way player with good feet, strong skills but needs to continue to hone the defensive side of his game. Already plays with an edge. With physicality in place he needs to continue maturing in his positional play. It will determine if he evolves to a impact pro or simply a good one. His puck smarts and passing ability see him as a future NHL PP guy too.

 

[HeavyHitter99]

Clearly not as much, but he sure seems to do just fine when he is playing without Marner on the US National Team. Looks pretty good to me.

He played with this Matthews guy that might get drafted

But he really the Oilers don't really need a player like him. He's not big, he doesn't skate overly well and he doesn't help out defensively. Like I said I like both players and have actually been a fan of Tkachuk much longer than Dubois but he is very similar to what we have and I think Dubois' game will translate better personally.

 

[Patch101]

Matthew Tkachuk
His bloodlines might be a clue to why he is an edgy high energy winger with offensive upside. Leads by example, shift after shift, never taking one off. He is the grease that make the line he is on go. Will hustle back and break up a pass in the defensive zone. Win all the battles in the dirty areas. Goaltenders are acquainted with him because he comes by frequently. He is always winning battles down low, and along the wall with hits contact, and disruption. Runs into the defensive player in the quest for the puck. He is ready and willing to line up at any of the forward positions with authority. has a nice release and heavy shot. A load to contend with when he goes to the net. Can come out of the corner with a defender on his back and still make a play with a pass or disrupting the front. Sure there are players in the class that advanced as scorers, but they can’t match him 60 minute intensity. Still a work in progress, who doesn’t necessarily jump out as dominant scorer, just a winner.

Pierre-Luc Dubois
Came into the season after have success as a intense wing who had good size, hockey sense, and composure. He was strong on the cycle, a terrific competitor, and a frame that could easily fit more muscle and girth. He had all the makings of a first round pick at wing. The move to centre has given him more freedom to be creative in the attack zone and he still plays a reliable defensive game. Can be equally effective at setting up plays and scoring. Had the Tampa Lightning’s strength coach Mark Lambert teach his a pro strength regime. Part of the reasoning behind it he is not a blazing skater and needs a bit more explosiveness in his leg strength. He also is getting a leg up on adding muscle to his entire body. He does have a long stride stride that he can improve on. Competes well in all three zones. Has great vision and a real nice set of hands and is dedicated at improvement in every phase. There will be no transition when the club that drafts him calls him up;he already understands what is necessary , has a professional air about him in that he already is detail oriented and serious about succeeding as a player. He is a high character individual whose star is beginning to shine brighter as the year goes on. One of the safest picks on the board.

 

[Spawn]

Is Couturier a good comp for Dubois? Or am I just reaching due to size/Quebecness?

Sounds like he's got the same type of defensive reliability as Couturier.