HF Habs: Draft Lottery tonight!! 7 p.m. ET. (MTL with #16 and #17!!)

[1909]

Sharks got so lucky by not winning the lottery this year. They would be ineligible to win again until 2029 and miss out on the chance of getting either McKenna or Dupont

At least according to this article by ESPN

How does the NHL draft lottery work? Everything you need to know

Which teams can move up to No. 1? What are their chances? Who are the best players available?

www.espn.com

Yes, they are. Some very good players this year but nothing campared to McKenna or Dupont.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Sharks got so lucky by not winning the lottery this year. They would be ineligible to win again until 2029 and miss out on the chance of getting either McKenna or Dupont

At least according to this article by ESPN

How does the NHL draft lottery work? Everything you need to know

Which teams can move up to No. 1? What are their chances? Who are the best players available?

www.espn.com

I'm pretty sure that's incorrect, I believe you have to move up in order to be ineligible. Since SJ finished dead last, they didn't move up.

 

[HuGo Burner Acc]

I'm pretty sure that's incorrect, I believe you have to move up in order to be ineligible. Since SJ finished dead last, they didn't move up.

Yeah I initially thought so too but the article said if they win again this year, they'd be ineligible until 2029. I always thought it was kinda weird that if you won in last, it wouldn't count as a lottery win. Being last shouldnt negate a win, just give you the best odds at it

 

[sampollock]

And many teams passed on Caufield and Guhle.

I can't wait to see what HuGo do with all our 1sts, 2nds, and 3rds in this year's draft...

Feels like such a long wait, lol

and the habs passed on BT
that stings

 

[Captain Mountain]

Yeah I initially thought so too but the article said if they win again this year, they'd be ineligible until 2029. I always thought it was kinda weird that if you won in last, it wouldn't count as a lottery win. Being last shouldnt negate a win, just give you the best odds at it

I just checked, the article is definitely wrong:

https://media.nhl.com/public/news/14767

No single team will be able to advance in the draft order by reason of winning a lottery draw more than two times in any five-year period (starting in 2022) This limitation will not affect a club’s ability to retain its presumptive draft position in any draft lottery, nor would it preclude the possibility of the club moving down in draft order to the extent other clubs advance by reason of winning the lottery draws. For purposes of clarity, the limitation would attach to the team, not the specific pick.

By way of example, if a club were to win the first lottery draw as the seventh-worst-finishing club in Year 1 (thereby earning the first-overall selection in the succeeding draft), and the second lottery draw as the 13th-worst-finishing club in Year 3 (thereby earning the third-overall selection in the succeeding draft), that club would no longer be eligible to benefit by winning a lottery draw in either of Year 4 or Year 5 and would not be able to benefit again by winning the draft lottery (or either of the draft lottery draws) until Year 6 at the earliest.

Most of the insiders commented on it when Montreal won the lottery in 2022 and got bombarded with the question. I'm not trusting an ESPN Article written by staff as an iron-clad source.

San Jose didn't advance.

 

[26Mats]

and the habs passed on BT
that stings

I'm not at all a fan of drafting for need.

It would be great to land anothr RD like Reinbacher, or a big center. But if another Caufield, Suzuki or Erik Karlsson are available mid 1st round, take them!

 

[Non Player Canadiens]

Just use the picks. Teams remain competitive thanks to a constant input of prospects entering ecl contracts. Otherwise those teams just fade out like Tampa and Colorado

Only 3 players in Colorado are picks by the team, ZERO since Makar

given how young the core is (all between 20-25) i think this makes a lot of sense. the Habs could extend their window of contention to 10+ years if they play their cards right

 

[HuGo Burner Acc]

I just checked, the article is definitely wrong:

https://media.nhl.com/public/news/14767

Most of the insiders commented on it when Montreal won the lottery in 2022 and got bombarded with the question. I'm not trusting an ESPN Article written by staff as an iron-clad source.

San Jose didn't advance.

Ya that's what I thought before reading that bad article. I wonder why that elludes them every year

 

[1909]

Habs have lost Savard, and they probably will lose Dvorak, Armia (and Pezz). They gonna need to find a couple of good vet players to replace them. I am not sure Kapanen, Beck, FX, even Reinbacher are ready for NHL next season. And they still have huge question marks with Dach, Laine, Newhook, Xhekaj and Struble.

 

[LaP]

given how young the core is (all between 20-25) i think this makes a lot of sense. the Habs could extend their window of contention to 10+ years if they play their cards right

Personally i would not move the picks / top prospects unless it's for a 26 years old or less legit 1st line (1B) talent with size,

 

[dcyhabs]

I'm not at all a fan of drafting for need.

It would be great to land anothr RD like Reinbacher, or a big center. But if another Caufield, Suzuki or Erik Karlsson are available mid 1st round, take them!

I don't think the habs need to reach for anything this year. No player drafted in the teens will be ready in time to fill current holes. On the flip side I don't see Hughes drafting another small forward or D as the habs already have as many, or more, than they can usefully play, especially in the playoffs.

Choosing between 2-3 players who are the next consensus picks isn't bad, especially since the consensus is only for this year. Picking a guy likely to go in the teens or later with a top 5 pick is bad asset management, but taking the guy rated 20th at 16 isn't a big deal. Reordering the top 5 is risky if you get it wrong, but GMs need the courage to go with it if they think they have it right.

MB's picks just reeked of "take the next big C on our list, even if he wouldn't go for two more rounds." That is about the worst you can do. Hughes definitely has his own list, he tries to take players later if the thinks he can get away with it, and he tries to avoid getting players who won't fit. Not fitting is pretty rare, but he's pretty clearly not going to take another small D or F. I was a bit surprised he went for Newhook, but I guess Hughes doesn't consider him small, and he figured the team needs the speed. He could be right, too, once the team is balanced.

 

[Wats]

Well sure winning a cup and being a top team is a dream but let's not disregard the lessons from them fading out prematurely. Colorado in particular haven't looked like a cup contenting threat in a long while.

Learn from them to be even better and enjoy a longer cup window

They made some nice trades to get to that point though.

 

[26Mats]

I don't think the habs need to reach for anything this year. No player drafted in the teens will be ready in time to fill current holes. On the flip side I don't see Hughes drafting another small forward or D as the habs already have as many, or more, than they can usefully play, especially in the playoffs.

Choosing between 2-3 players who are the next consensus picks isn't bad, especially since the consensus is only for this year. Picking a guy likely to go in the teens or later with a top 5 pick is bad asset management, but taking the guy rated 20th at 16 isn't a big deal. Reordering the top 5 is risky if you get it wrong, but GMs need the courage to go with it if they think they have it right.

MB's picks just reeked of "take the next big C on our list, even if he wouldn't go for two more rounds." That is about the worst you can do. Hughes definitely has his own list, he tries to take players later if the thinks he can get away with it, and he tries to avoid getting players who won't fit. Not fitting is pretty rare, but he's pretty clearly not going to take another small D or F. I was a bit surprised he went for Newhook, but I guess Hughes doesn't consider him small, and he figured the team needs the speed. He could be right, too, once the team is balanced.

For small forwards: Gally won't be here, or at least won't be a priority, by the time the player we draft will be here. Also, Newhook isn't a prioirty. I don't make decisions about personel based on Newhook. If you see the next Martin St. Louis, draft him and trade Newhook down the line.

 

[Wats]

What we get at 16-17 between 2005 and 2016... As a rule, either the 16 or the 17 gives you one NHL player. Bolded is the NHL players. Sometimes the NHL player is drafted at 17, best player is on the left irrespective of number. Years 2012 and 2015 are monster years.

2005- Hanzal- Bourret

2006- Trevor Lewis- Wyshart

2007- Cherepanov (RIP)-Colton Gillies

2008- Jake Gardiner- Colborne

2009- Leddy- Rundblad

2010- Tarasenko- Hishon

2011- Armia- Nathan Beaulieu

2012- Tom Wilson- Tomas Hertl

2013- Zadorov – Lazar

2014-Sanheim-Milano

2015-Kyle Connor-Mathew Barzal

2016- Chychrun-Kunin

This draft looks to me like a 2014 or 2018 where 16/17 were Martin Kaut and Ty Smith. I'd support a trade of both picks if the return is someone good that can help Demidov actually have a good player to play with.

 

[26Mats]

This draft looks to me like a 2014 or 2018 where 16/17 were Martin Kaut and Ty Smith. I'd support a trade of both picks if the return is someone good that can help Demidov actually have a good player to play with.

What gives you that impression about this draft?

It's what Pierre McGuire has been saying.

 

[Wats]

What gives you that impression about this draft?

It's what Pierre McGuire has been saying.

Probably irrational but the fact that there is no forward that can compete realistically for 1st overall and the pure mid pre-draft stats from a lot of these forwards ranked in mid/late 1st.

What's Pierre saying?

 

[TheBuriedHab]

Yeah, we are in a position to just take BPA. Because those guys could become valuable trade assets worth more than their draft slot. Just like Hage now is probably worth much more than the 21st pick alone was last year.

 

[26Mats]

Probably irrational but the fact that there is no forward that can compete realistically for 1st overall and the pure mid pre-draft stats from a lot of these forwards ranked in mid/late 1st.

What's Pierre saying?

He's saying the top 10 picks are good, though the 1st overall isn't a true 1st overall. And he says after about 10 there's a big drop off, and there won't be any Cole or Lane Hutson's in the 2nd round.

That, of course, is his opinion.

 

[Rob Sense]

Crosby has a NMC and it won't be a bidding war if he and the Pens decide to part ways. No team is trading a Demidov piece for Crosby at his age anyways.

Two picks (16th and 17th), A NHL piece like Dach, and a prospect like Beck, Kapanen, Mailloux, or Roy is more than enough for Crosby at his age. I doubt any team is able to go deeper than this and if they are a contender, they likely don't have the futures like the Habs have as well.

What can the Avs offer for Crosby?

Pittsburgh's window to get a return for Crosby is closing and accelerating. This offer is way too generous. The position is that either Crosby retires a Penguin and Pittsburgh get ZERO or Crosby agrees and sets his terms for Pittsburgh to negotiate with a couple of candidates. This is not going to return multiple first round picks and former first round prospects. If this happens we will be surprised by the limited return...he has a couple of years left at best and at what level?

 

[Legend123]

This draft looks to me like a 2014 or 2018 where 16/17 were Martin Kaut and Ty Smith. I'd support a trade of both picks if the return is someone good that can help Demidov actually have a good player to play with.

Or it could be like 2017 which was said to be extremely weak and in the mid range we had Suzuki necas, and others

Or like 2022 where with good drafting hutson could have been had in that range

 

[MTL Dirty Birdy]

You need to be at least PPG as a winger to be a core piece, and even then if youre offense only with no other dimension Id say thats pushing it.

We haven’t had a PPG Player since Kovalev until this year! CC has 37 goals nd mostly points 5v5. I think he has second most on the team. His game is all round now. He is part of the core imo. Guys like that are not in every team.

 

[MTL Dirty Birdy]

What we get at 16-17 between 2005 and 2016... As a rule, either the 16 or the 17 gives you one NHL player. Bolded is the NHL players. Sometimes the NHL player is drafted at 17, best player is on the left irrespective of number. Years 2012 and 2015 are monster years.

2005- Hanzal- Bourret

2006- Trevor Lewis- Wyshart

2007- Cherepanov (RIP)-Colton Gillies

2008- Jake Gardiner- Colborne

2009- Leddy- Rundblad

2010- Tarasenko- Hishon

2011- Armia- Nathan Beaulieu

2012- Tom Wilson- Tomas Hertl

2013- Zadorov – Lazar

2014-Sanheim-Milano

2015-Kyle Connor-Mathew Barzal

2016- Chychrun-Kunin

Craziest part of the 2015 was Boston picking 12-14 who all flopped and passing on Connor/Barzal and Chabot the following three picks. Thats a helluva côté three they could have drafted. My god

 

[Wats]

Or it could be like 2017 which was said to be extremely weak and in the mid range we had Suzuki necas, and others

Or like 2022 where with good drafting hutson could have been had in that range

Feel like 2022 was always deep, just not top heavy. 2017 was a cool draft

 

[Habs]

Don't deplete your farm for Sidney Crosby, but do on Mason MacTavish.

You do realize we get picks every year. We can trade a couple this year and still have good picks years coming up (or trade guys for picks at any point).

Trading Demidov for Crosby is dumb. Trading two first rounders in a meh draft really isn't.

MacTavish probably has 10 good years of hockey left, he’s a gem if you ask me. Sid has 2. Could care less about the 2 draft picks, there’s no way the pens are this stupid to trade their face of the franchise to Montreal for our 2 picks lol, get real

 

[LaP]

Or it could be like 2017 which was said to be extremely weak and in the mid range we had Suzuki necas, and others

Or like 2022 where with good drafting hutson could have been had in that range

There's pretty much always 2-3 good catches between 15th and 32nd. You just have to draft well like we did the Caufield and Guhle draft.

2012 draft was supposed to be weak but Skjei 28th, Vasi 19th, Teravainen 18th, Hertl 17th, Tom Wilson 16th, You also had other guys not too bad like Matheson, Pearson, Laughton between 15th and 32nd.