Draft lottery 'luck' isn't what you think it is

[Honour Over Glory]

The obsession with size, grit and truckulence has been destructive to some, those that nailed it lucked into it

The league is still into useless giant wankers, idiots like Rempe are fawned over and they’re absolute shit players.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Not necessarily.

With salaries not being an issue, it comes down to several other factors:

-Desirability of the team's location
-Playing time- the top teams want to win now and as such aren't going to be able to guarantee a good amount of playing time from the get go
-Reputation: players and agents talk and if a team had a good reputation it's going to attract new players

This kind if system always punishes teams for poor management such as tanking, bad culture, ineptitude in general etc

Probably close to zero percent chance of happening.

 

[Golden_Jet]

The league is still into useless giant wankers, idiots like Rempe are fawned over and they’re absolute shit players.

While true, they only spent a 6th rounder on him.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

While true, they only spent a 6th rounder on him.

Turdhawks spent a 6th rounder on a giant swedish wanker a draft or two ago as well, who in Sweden names a bloke Milton in this day and age? A 6th for these plugs are still a waste.

There are still teams that blow picks on these plugs because they’re big and they can skate and it’s a fun side show after until it isn’t.

 

[Bocephus86]

People have a weird take on the word "luck" around here in terms of the NHL draft lottery.

People seem to conflate the lottery with an “amount of high picks” thing. But actually it’s more about what players your lottery win gives you access to, or prevents you from accessing.

Luck doesn’t involve being good or crappy, it just means having the ping pong balls bounce in such a way that it alters the trajectory of a team.

These are the luckiest bounces ever in NHL draft lottery history:

- [ ] Edmonton in 2015, moved up 2 spots to get Connor McDavid. Enough said.

- [ ] Colorado won in 2013, jumping from 2nd to 1st to get Nate McKinnon. The alternative could have been Barkov, but more likely was Seth Jones.

- [ ] Yes, they finished last to “earn” the slot, but the 2016 Leafs still only had a 1-in-5 chance at Auston Matthews in a year with a huge drop-off to #2

- [ ] New Jersey in 2019 jumped up 3 spots to grab Jack Hughes in a year where the alternatives were not even close

- [ ] The Rangers in 2020, won not one, but two lotteries to effectively move up 15 slots to 1st overall. Yes, they squandered it by picking Alexis Lafreniere, but that’s not luck, that’s entirely on themselves.

- [ ] Carolina hit on a 3% chance in 2018 to jump from 11 to 2. Svechnikov may be step below franchise stud, but when you look at the players picked between 8 and 20 that year, this was definitely lucky. The Islanders will be hoping they’ve just followed in those footsteps, and not in those of Philly in 2017. That’s the year the Flyers went from 13 to 2 and whiffed with Nolan Patrick.

- [ ] But you don’t have to win the lottery to win the draft. In 2017, 3 teams jumped over last-pace Colorado, and the Avs came up smelling like a rose with the best player in the draft at 4, Cale Maker.

- [ ] Vancouver fell a spot in 2018 and had the best player in that draft drop into their laps. Can you imagine Canuck fans today if had stayed at 6, picked Filip Zadina and watched Quinn Hughes slide to the Rangers?



As for unlucky bounces, they are often overrated, just like the guarantee of getting a stud in the top 5 is overstated. The test of time clearly shows how that really varies from year to year. And dropping a spot or two in that range hasn’t really made much of a difference.

- [ ] The worst example of teams getting shafted by the lottery balls, may have actually been in 2017, and it didn’t affect the top teams. The Rangers and the Knights may have been ‘settling’ for Makar, Pettersson or Heiskanen instead of Cody Glass and Lias Andersson if not for the lottery pushing Dallas, Philly and New Jersey past them.

- [ ] Buffalo in 2015, dropped 1 spot to miss out on Connor McDavid. That said, the fact that Jack Eichel was a worthy #1 most other years mitigated that.

- [ ] Maybe I should feel sorry for Phoenix missing out after ‘earning’ Eichel in 2015, but I don’t, not when they took Strome over Marner.

- [ ] Detroit got jumped in 2018, but saw two reaches taken ahead of them in Hayton and Kotkaniemi. They weren’t getting Tkachuk and taking Zadina over Hughes is all on them.

- [ ] And they got jumped twice in 2020, dropping from 1st to 4th. But would they actually want Lafreniere over Raymond today? Or Byfield, or even Stutzle?

- [ ] Vancouver got jumped twice in 2017 and still ended up with Pettersson — prior to this season frequently ranked as that year’s 2nd-best player

- [ ] And I’m not going to feel sorry for the Canucks for getting jumped twice in 2016 either. Matthew Tkachuk and Keller were still on the board and they chose Juolevi.

The more recent drafts are a little harder to call because we don’t have a big enough sample size yet. Did winning the lottery in 2021 or 2022 really matter? Bedard was supposed to be a different story in 2023, and probably will be, but right now is he that much better than Fantilli and Carlsson and Michkov?

Winning — or losing — the lottery frequently doesn’t match the hype.

This is a high effort post and very interesting to see all condensed like this, much appreciated, sincerely.

 

[Doublechin]

The league is still into useless giant wankers, idiots like Rempe are fawned over and they’re absolute shit players.

Letourneau should open eyes

 

[Golden_Jet]

Turdhawks spent a 6th rounder on a giant swedish wanker a draft or two ago as well, who in Sweden names a bloke Milton in this day and age? A 6th for these plugs are still a waste.

There are still teams that blow picks on these plugs because they’re big and they can skate and it’s a fun side show after until it isn’t.

Very few 6th rounders make the NHL, this one did, it’s 7.9%,
So only 2-3 players out of 32 make it on average.

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities – DobberProspects

 

[Goptor]

I don’t even remember where these guys were relative to their draft rankings.

Although I do recall Senyshyn was an off the board pick. Zboril was around that 12-20 range. Not sure about Jake.

Zboril was their pick in the teens. They got 2 extra 1sts right before the draft with some trades. It was speculated at the time that they spent a lot of time looking at guys expected to go in the 30s/40s for their 2nd round picks and fell in love with those guys.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Letourneau should open eyes

That Dean bloke?

3 assists in 36 games sure does open eyes, for why anyone would draft him in the first round. Didn’t even score a goal lol.

 

[PistolPete]

Probably close to zero percent chance of happening.

How you mean?

If I'm a rookie and I got Columbus, Nashville et al telling me whey put me on their top line while Colorado, LA et sl are telling me I'll probably be sent back to junior, it's going to give me other considerations for where I play other than market size of the team

 

[PistolPete]

If we do this you unleash the Canadian teams with no salary cap and then see how this goes, MTL/ TOR/NYR/BOS/CHI would have every top star moving forward, with Vancouver not too far behind for the west coast kids.

No they wouldn't.

Not every player wants to play in the largest markets and there are many considerations in deciding to play. With the cap in place, the largest markets don't necessarily have an advantage

 

[PistolPete]

The NFL in particular is highly dependent on when the right QB is available at the right time. And it's one of the hardest positions to scout in all of sports, because so much of it comes down to things you can't really measure, and only a few games a year in college (most of which are between mismatched teams/players) doesn't give you a ton of good samples to work from.

Basketball scouting is more murky than it used to be now that guys are being drafted out of HS. Used to be mostly seniors with a few obviously precocious and talented underclassmen mixed in.

It's a crapahoot at all positions for NFL teams.

And basketball used to be you had to graduate or finish 3 seasons or such. Even then there were many busts

 

[Golden_Jet]

How you mean?

If I'm a rookie and I got Columbus, Nashville et al telling me whey put me on their top line while Colorado, LA et sl are telling me I'll probably be sent back to junior, it's going to give me other considerations for where I play other than market size of the team

The Draft has been in place since 1963,
The thought of abolishing the draft, I’d say that ship has sailed.

 

[PistolPete]

In a world without the entry draft, many top players will have contracts/their rights locked up well before they turn 18.

Desirability/Playing time/Reputation will all be distant factors behind which teams gave me/my family money and training when I was a kid in exchange for signing me to a contract (or getting first shot and signing me to a contract).

The trend in sports for clear business reasons is that the league is the business, not the individual teams. Without the draft teams with the means will create massive talent pipelines starting at early ages (as what happened before the draft and happens in leagues without entry drafts). You'll see partnerships with teams or leagues in Europe which do the same thing. And the ultimate result will be a league with higher overhead, potentially more vulnerable to a rival league, less parity and one less premier annual event.

You could have a point there.

But the league can take steps to ensure that kind of thing doesn't happen

And there's nothing to day that they can't put a rookie cap based on season record.

 

[FiveTacos]

It's a crapahoot at all positions for NFL teams.

It is, but the hit rate on QBs drops dramatically after the 1st round. I once took a look at a decade's worth of drafts, and there were only about 10 QBs of high quality picked out of over 100 guys. The hit rate high in the draft was around 1 in 5 ... after that it was about 1 in 20.

And basketball used to be you had to graduate or finish 3 seasons or such. Even then there were many busts

The few financial hardship exceptions like Magic were usually very obvious top level prospects. But yes, there were still busts ... but you also got a longer look at guys before they got drafted, which tended to result in the best talents rising to the top and not sliding down.

 

[BenningHurtsMySoul]

People have a weird take on the word "luck" around here in terms of the NHL draft lottery.

People seem to conflate the lottery with an “amount of high picks” thing. But actually it’s more about what players your lottery win gives you access to, or prevents you from accessing.

Luck doesn’t involve being good or crappy, it just means having the ping pong balls bounce in such a way that it alters the trajectory of a team.

These are the luckiest bounces ever in NHL draft lottery history:

- [ ] Edmonton in 2015, moved up 2 spots to get Connor McDavid. Enough said.

- [ ] Colorado won in 2013, jumping from 2nd to 1st to get Nate McKinnon. The alternative could have been Barkov, but more likely was Seth Jones.

- [ ] Yes, they finished last to “earn” the slot, but the 2016 Leafs still only had a 1-in-5 chance at Auston Matthews in a year with a huge drop-off to #2

- [ ] New Jersey in 2019 jumped up 3 spots to grab Jack Hughes in a year where the alternatives were not even close

- [ ] The Rangers in 2020, won not one, but two lotteries to effectively move up 15 slots to 1st overall. Yes, they squandered it by picking Alexis Lafreniere, but that’s not luck, that’s entirely on themselves.

- [ ] Carolina hit on a 3% chance in 2018 to jump from 11 to 2. Svechnikov may be step below franchise stud, but when you look at the players picked between 8 and 20 that year, this was definitely lucky. The Islanders will be hoping they’ve just followed in those footsteps, and not in those of Philly in 2017. That’s the year the Flyers went from 13 to 2 and whiffed with Nolan Patrick.

- [ ] But you don’t have to win the lottery to win the draft. In 2017, 3 teams jumped over last-pace Colorado, and the Avs came up smelling like a rose with the best player in the draft at 4, Cale Maker.

- [ ] Vancouver fell a spot in 2018 and had the best player in that draft drop into their laps. Can you imagine Canuck fans today if had stayed at 6, picked Filip Zadina and watched Quinn Hughes slide to the Rangers?



As for unlucky bounces, they are often overrated, just like the guarantee of getting a stud in the top 5 is overstated. The test of time clearly shows how that really varies from year to year. And dropping a spot or two in that range hasn’t really made much of a difference.

- [ ] The worst example of teams getting shafted by the lottery balls, may have actually been in 2017, and it didn’t affect the top teams. The Rangers and the Knights may have been ‘settling’ for Makar, Pettersson or Heiskanen instead of Cody Glass and Lias Andersson if not for the lottery pushing Dallas, Philly and New Jersey past them.

- [ ] Buffalo in 2015, dropped 1 spot to miss out on Connor McDavid. That said, the fact that Jack Eichel was a worthy #1 most other years mitigated that.

- [ ] Maybe I should feel sorry for Phoenix missing out after ‘earning’ Eichel in 2015, but I don’t, not when they took Strome over Marner.

- [ ] Detroit got jumped in 2018, but saw two reaches taken ahead of them in Hayton and Kotkaniemi. They weren’t getting Tkachuk and taking Zadina over Hughes is all on them.

- [ ] And they got jumped twice in 2020, dropping from 1st to 4th. But would they actually want Lafreniere over Raymond today? Or Byfield, or even Stutzle?

- [ ] Vancouver got jumped twice in 2017 and still ended up with Pettersson — prior to this season frequently ranked as that year’s 2nd-best player

- [ ] And I’m not going to feel sorry for the Canucks for getting jumped twice in 2016 either. Matthew Tkachuk and Keller were still on the board and they chose Juolevi.

The more recent drafts are a little harder to call because we don’t have a big enough sample size yet. Did winning the lottery in 2021 or 2022 really matter? Bedard was supposed to be a different story in 2023, and probably will be, but right now is he that much better than Fantilli and Carlsson and Michkov?

Winning — or losing — the lottery frequently doesn’t match the hype.

Tkachuk, McAvoy, Chyrchrun, Sergachev, Keller all would have been better picks

 

[Mike C]

You want hype? Get rid of the draft entirely and have the teams recruit the rookies.

Would any Canadian team see another top 20 ranked prospect?

How many players would sign with their favourite team growing up? Or the team closest to them?

How many rookies can increase chances of success by finding a good fit rather than being compelled to go to a market?

Reminds me of an interview I saw with this guy named Ed Davis a few years back. He was an NBA free agent. The dopey girl asked him what will be the determining factor in where he signs. She tries to answer the question as she asks him by rattling off things like, climate, playing time, coaching, teammates, system,etc

Ed matters of factly says "the determination factor of where I go is the size of my paycheck"

Never about the money my ass!

 

[SirJW]

How can this thread not have mentioned Pittsburgh's luck with getting #1 and Crosby?

 

[PistolPete]

Reminds me of an interview I saw with this guy named Ed Davis a few years back. He was an NBA free agent. The dopey girl asked him what will be the determining factor in where he signs. She tries to answer the question as she asks him by rattling off things like, climate, playing time, coaching, teammates, system,etc

Ed matters of factly says "the determination factor of where I go is the size of my paycheck"

Never about the money my ass!

With both a salary cap AND a rookie cap the money is irrelevant since any team in the league can match the top salary the player is seeking.

So those other factors take on more importance.

 

[PistolPete]

It is, but the hit rate on QBs drops dramatically after the 1st round. I once took a look at a decade's worth of drafts, and there were only about 10 QBs of high quality picked out of over 100 guys. The hit rate high in the draft was around 1 in 5 ... after that it was about 1 in 20.



The few financial hardship exceptions like Magic were usually very obvious top level prospects. But yes, there were still busts ... but you also got a longer look at guys before they got drafted, which tended to result in the best talents rising to the top and not sliding down.

As a draft afficionado, I like the info about the NFL draft, is very interesting.

Question for ya though; one thing I have wondered is regardless of league the lower you go the far less likely a player is to make it; what I wonder though is is it because teams can recognize the good talent early enough or could it be these players don't get a good look because they were drafted so low.

Given how many undrafted players craxk NHL rosters, even if a rare one is Martin St. Louis, Ed Belfour et al, kinda makes me wonder

 

[PistolPete]

How can this thread not have mentioned Pittsburgh's luck with getting #1 and Crosby?

You missed the memo? That wasn't luck at all, it was predetermined cause of something about them being on the verge of bankruptcy and 29 other owners who can't agree to an effective revenue sharing model had no problem gifting a superstar to a medium-sized market