Draft lottery 'luck' isn't what you think it is

[Anaheim4ever]

the ducks have fallen or stayed in their original spot in every lottery they've been a part of with the exception of the weird 2005 lottery when they moved up

When Alexander Daigle's son or grandson is the consensus #1 pick the Ducks will win the lottery.

 

[Pavels Dog]

- [ ] Maybe I should feel sorry for Phoenix missing out after ‘earning’ Eichel in 2015, but I don’t, not when they took Strome over Marner.

- [ ] Detroit got jumped in 2018, but saw two reaches taken ahead of them in Hayton and Kotkaniemi. They weren’t getting Tkachuk and taking Zadina over Hughes is all on them.

- [ ] And I’m not going to feel sorry for the Canucks for getting jumped twice in 2016 either. Matthew Tkachuk and Keller were still on the board and they chose Juolevi.

Every team misses in the draft. I hate this argument.

 

[Summer Rose]

If you want lottery luck…have them cancel your all star game right before the lottery.

The Coyotes were once awarded the All-Star Game, but I don't remember which year that was so I don't remember why it didn't happen. Might have been 2005, which would make sense, since the new arena had just opened up a couple years before, and obviously there was no All-Star Game for a season that was never played.

So why didn't we win the Sidney Crosby sweepstakes?

 

[ponder719]

The Coyotes were once awarded the All-Star Game, but I don't remember which year that was so I don't remember why it didn't happen. Might have been 2005, which would make sense, since the new arena had just opened up a couple years before, and obviously there was no All-Star Game for a season that was never played.

So why didn't we win the Sidney Crosby sweepstakes?

Per that most reliable of sources, Wikipedia, it was the 2006 ASG, canceled because of the 06 Winter Olympics.

 

[PistolPete]

There’s no luck. Just the league “fixing” it like usual.

To what end?

 

[PistolPete]

The Coyotes were once awarded the All-Star Game, but I don't remember which year that was so I don't remember why it didn't happen. Might have been 2005, which would make sense, since the new arena had just opened up a couple years before, and obviously there was no All-Star Game for a season that was never played.

So why didn't we win the Sidney Crosby sweepstakes?

"We"? You were a Coyotes fan? Now a Utah fan?

 

[Summer Rose]

"We"? You were a Coyotes fan? Now a Utah fan?

Yes on both accounts.

 

[Lshap]

To what end?

Obviously, to favour American teams, or Canadian teams, or big markets, or small markets. The fix for each year is different and determined by its own lottery. Which, of course, is fixed.

 

[PistolPete]

the ducks have fallen or stayed in their original spot in every lottery they've been a part of with the exception of the weird 2005 lottery when they moved up

With the name of an original Mighty Duck and knowing this about them, you have to be a Ducks fan. Right?

 

[boredmale]

Luck to me is finishing last in 2004 but ending up picking 2nd so instead of Ovechkin you get Malkin. That being said the fact you didn't pick first in 2004 ment you get 3 balls instead of 2 in the 2005 draft lottery and you end up winning thus you pick Crosby

 

[Fripp]

What on earth is this?

 

[PistolPete]

Yes on both accounts.

Here I thought my FIL and I had the only soft spots for the Coyotes.

He worked in Phoenix for 10 years and I just took up their cause given the vitriol they always got.

We're both Sens fans though.

 

[Summer Rose]

Here I thought my FIL and I had the only soft spots for the Coyotes.

He worked in Phoenix for 10 years and I just took up their cause given the vitriol they always got.

We're both Sens fans though.

I'll do you one even further... I was born and raised in Arizona and even had full season tickets to the Coyotes!

 

[Doublechin]

No, that’s what poor preparation looks like. Because even at that draft, analysts were confused why the Bruins went with those players given the players still available. It was a head scratcher then and absolutely hilarious now.

The obsession with size, grit and truckulence has been destructive to some, those that nailed it lucked into it

 

[ManofSteel55]

You want hype? Get rid of the draft entirely and have the teams recruit the rookies.

Would any Canadian team see another top 20 ranked prospect?

How many players would sign with their favourite team growing up? Or the team closest to them?

How many rookies can increase chances of success by finding a good fit rather than being compelled to go to a market?

This is a horrible idea and one that would spell doom for many franchises. It would be nearly impossible for basement teams to get out of the basement.

 

[ManofSteel55]

McKenzie's Final 2015 Ranking: McDavid, Eichel and... - TSN.ca

The 2015 NHL Draft will take place in Sunrise, Florida in three weeks, where Connor McDavid will be coronated as the first-overall selection. But there's plenty of intriguing options after McDavid and Jack Eichel, as revealed in TSN Hockey Insider Bob McKenzie's final TSN Draft ranking.

www.tsn.ca

If you just took Mckenzie's rankings, an aggregation of scouting reports and effectively "the board", the best available players were Barzal (ranked 9), Connor (ranked 13) and Zboril (ranked 14).

Debrusk was ranked 28th and Senyshyn was ranked 40th.

That draft was just filled with bad moves by GM's.

• Strome over Marner is one that in hindsight looks awful, but at the time made sense. Strome was ranked higher.
• Zacha at 6 when he was ranked 8th among NA skaters and no European skaters had been taken yet (Rantanen) is one that turned out awfully for the franchise.
• Boston whiffing on 2 of 3 from 13 - 15 when they could have taken Barzal, Connor, Chabot or Erikkson Ek with those other 2 picks must still hurt for Bruins fans.
• Dallas taking Gurianov over a falling Barzal, and a few others would hurt bad if they didn't do so well in getting Hintz later in the draft.
• The Oilers trading number 16 and 33 for a busting Griffin Reinhart when guys like Barzal, Connor, Chabot, Eriksson-Ek, Boeser, etc were available is an all time draft blunder. It hurts even more when you see that pick 33 could have been used on Sebastien Aho, Roope Hintz, Rasmus Anderson or Brandon Carlo.

It's days like this that set franchises back.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Edmonton has won the lottery three times, but New Jersey has won two lotteries outright, won the number two slot in another, and moved up the maximum 4 slots to #4 after winning in 2011. (Which allowed Edmonton to hang on to #1)

One of those Edmonton wins was in basically the worst draft of the last 20 years as well. The best players in that draft aren't impressive at all.

The funniest part to me, is that if the NHL didn't try to tinker with the odds to make it harder for teams to get multiple first round picks in a row, the Oilers would likely have not gotten McDavid.

 

[Captain Mountain]

So you want to only see big market american cities get success and other teams get screwed? Why would Canadian teams go for such garbage? Unless you want to league to contract to 16 teams because you know damn well teams.like Nashville, Columbus, Utah, Buffallo, Ottawa, Calgary etc. Arent going to survive.

It would also seriously threaten Bettman's expansion to non-traditional markets.

But half of the Canadian teams would be more than fine with it. Yeah, it dramatically favours big market American teams, but we broadly know what would happen based on history and other sports. Teams that have the money, proximity to the best young hockey players and connections will build massive grassroot networks and get their hooks in players much earlier. You'll see commitments with kids where they get early funding and expenses covered in exchange for right of first refusal for NHL rights. Toronto and Vancouver would likely be bigger beneficiaries than any big market American team.

It would not be just bidding wars for top prospects, a good portion of top prospects would probably have their rights held years before they turn 18.

The draft is key part of the centralized, parity driven NHL that hockey as a sport has largely benefited from, same as the salary cap and restrictions on free agents.

 

[rahad]

Is this the Patrick Roy luck? He got a first overall pick with Colorado to start his NHl career. Add another first round pick.

 

[WarriorofTime]

There's all sorts of 'luck'.

Ping Pong Balls moving you up.

Picking high in the right draft in the right year with the best future talent available.

Picks that can check all the right boxes on draft day progressing as you'd hope.

Picks that occur much later that exceed all your wildest hopes and dreams, and the fact that none of the teams picking directly ahead of you took that player.

Out of everything, I would say there is nothing more grim than having your 'tank cycle' line up with what amounts to a multi-year lull of superstar talent. The best players end up coming from random draft spots (making the whole thing feel more like a pure crapshoot) and the top of the draft never really takes off, either because it was known on draft day or they don't develop as hoped. Across all sports, this is bound to happen every now and then, while other years have multiple superstars all towards the top.

 

[Jee]

Every team misses in the draft. I hate this argument.

What's worse, is that drafting is only 1 part of the equation. Team environment, discipline, motivation and injuries all play a huuuuge part in a prospect busting or not. We don't know if Marner would've had the same development in Phoenix and we never will.

The argument sucks, point.

 

[WarriorofTime]

It would also seriously threaten Bettman's expansion to non-traditional markets.

But half of the Canadian teams would be more than fine with it. Yeah, it dramatically favours big market American teams, but we broadly know what would happen based on history and other sports. Teams that have the money, proximity to the best young hockey players and connections will build massive grassroot networks and get their hooks in players much earlier. You'll see commitments with kids where they get early funding and expenses covered in exchange for right of first refusal for NHL rights. Toronto and Vancouver would likely be bigger beneficiaries than any big market American team.

It would not be just bidding wars for top prospects, a good portion of top prospects would probably have their rights held years before they turn 18.

The draft is key part of the centralized, parity driven NHL that hockey as a sport has largely benefited from, same as the salary cap and restrictions on free agents.

Montreal in the Original Six had a very expansive network involving sponsorship of junior hockey and establish priority on signing top young talent, as well as teams that would flow into those junior teams. Functionally Montreal was developing all of the province of Quebec as their own 'farm' team. The quality of minor hockey in Quebec would likely be much stronger if direct sponsorship never ended.

 

[Gregor Samsa]

Drafting always seems much easier in hindsight

 

[Captain Mountain]

Montreal in the Original Six had a very expansive network involving sponsorship of junior hockey and establish priority on signing top young talent, as well as teams that would flow into those junior teams. Functionally Montreal was developing all of the province of Quebec as their own 'farm' team. The quality of minor hockey in Quebec would likely be much stronger if direct sponsorship never ended.

Sure, but minor hockey in Quebec doesn't produce NHL talent to the same degree anymore and will take time to improve. All the Leafs have to do is buy the GTHL and they're a contender forever.

Realistically, the organizations which would benefit most from removing the draft are:

1. Teams with lots of money (and the ability spend); and
2. Teams that through connections or proximity can access young talented hockey players; and
3. Teams that have the expertise and infrastructure to build "academies".

That will benefit big market American teams, but I think most Canadiens teams will benefit too, since there is much higher interest in hockey, hockey as a sport is limited through costs to participate and its far more likely that there would be public support in Canada for building up teams as its a national pastime in Canada in a way it isn't in the US.

 

[FMichael]

That draft was just filled with bad moves by GM's.

• Strome over Marner is one that in hindsight looks awful, but at the time made sense. Strome was ranked higher.
• Zacha at 6 when he was ranked 8th among NA skaters and no European skaters had been taken yet (Rantanen) is one that turned out awfully for the franchise.
• Boston whiffing on 2 of 3 from 13 - 15 when they could have taken Barzal, Connor, Chabot or Erikkson Ek with those other 2 picks must still hurt for Bruins fans.
• Dallas taking Gurianov over a falling Barzal, and a few others would hurt bad if they didn't do so well in getting Hintz later in the draft.
• The Oilers trading number 16 and 33 for a busting Griffin Reinhart when guys like Barzal, Connor, Chabot, Eriksson-Ek, Boeser, etc were available is an all time draft blunder. It hurts even more when you see that pick 33 could have been used on Sebastien Aho, Roope Hintz, Rasmus Anderson or Brandon Carlo.

It's days like this that set franchises back.

It’s why the NHL is arguably the most challenging when it comes to the draft - 18 yr olds who are still physically and mentally developing and what you get when they reach age 22 and older is a big ‘?’