The number of top ten busts seems to have been dropping over the last decade. Better scouting? I feel pretty confident with all players slated to go top ten who aren't named Boqvist or Bouchard.
Actually I think it has a lot more to do with what happens before they get into a team's system. More and more kids around the world and also in the US are playing hockey. So, part of this is, there is a much larger pool. So, the percentages go up in the first round that you'll be picking a kid who could make it. But even more importantly, this generation of kids are being forced to pick their sport at a much earlier age. If you don't focus in on a sport very early you just can't keep up by 14 years old. I didn't start playing hockey until I was 10. I made my varsity team in high school and I'm not the purest of athletes. Nowadays I'd be lucky to make the freshman team. (there wasn't even a freshman team when I was in school). The level of teaching, coaching and skill development is so high at so young an age. Just look at how many more kids in almost every sport who are making a big impact at the pro level in their first 2 seasons. What's interesting is... more 18-20 year olds are making the jump, but they're burning out earlier too. Some of it has to do with the speed and contact of the game as it's evolved. But some of it is purely about how much hockey these guys have already played even before they go pro.