Speculation: Draft and UDFA Thread 2018-19: Part IX (No Kakko/Hughes Talk)

[Edge]

I've heard Newhook is definitely on the list of trade up targets and i know Heinola is monitored closely for #20.

Newhook is a name I've personally never heard, but logically always assumed they would have a lot of notes on. Zegras is another guy I've never personally heard, but suspected might be.

Heinola I don't have any info/guesses one way or the other.

 

[Levitate]

if york or seider - prob gone by 15, are targets at 20 i will come away from this draft feeling rather blah. and if we "move up" for a dman, ill be very unhappy.

the forward depth in this organization is lacking as is the roster forward depth. its just average.

defensively, although not stacked, we are in pretty good shape. there will be opportunities in the 2nd round to snag a dman who can both skate and play D.

at 20 there will be an impact forward available and that forward may still fall well within the BPA range. and if we move up, taking a forward gets u a very good player in that 12-15 range.

unless we do move up, realistically at 20 we should be looking at forwards with speed, offensive tools and smarts. size matters not to me, in fact, it matters nothing.

and there will be players there who fit that bill.

Feels like some people think the Rangers forward depth is bad and some people think the D depth is bad. Maybe depends on how the rangers themselves feel

 

[Edge]

Edge, wasn't there some Zegras love from the Rangers earlier though?

I've always suspected it, and I think one or two other people said he was on the short list, but he's never a name I specifically heard mentioned to me. Ditto for Newhook, though I'd put him in the "highly likely" category with Zegras.

Specific names that were mentioned, that I can think of off the top of my head:

Cozens (for a while)
Caufield
McCarthy
Dorofyev
Krebs
Seider
York
Johnson
Broberg
Pelletier
Tomasino
Afanasyev

Suspected names:
Zegras
Newhook
Byram
Suzuki
Turcotte


Don't think is on the radar:
Kaliyev
Laovie
Dach
Knight
Boldy


Names I've heard nothing about:
Podkolzin
Soderstrom
Brink
Fagemo

Hughes and Kakko are givens.

 

[Rangers in 7]

Edge, wasn't there some Zegras love from the Rangers earlier though?

yea when we were picking 4-6....at 2 hell no and hes not going to drop to the late teens

 

[Leetch3]

And keeping in mind that it's not like I have typed list front of me. So there going to be names that just aren't coming up in conversations. So there are plenty of guys who I am sure are being eyed.

And obviously some guys carry a high probability of being out of range. So the Rangers might really like Cozens, but they aren't likely to get close to him. But you also never know what the future holds and they'll want their notes for down the line - even if it's five years from now.



I wouldn't have wanted Krebs at 6, but I think the value is there for a teens pick. In the Rangers case it might come down to having Krebs + Seider vs. Newhook/Zegras/Cozens. It's been said for a while the Rangers want quality over quanity, but could find themselves in a scenario where they are significantly more content to take two prospects they rated 85 over one prospect they rated 88.

I will say that having an extra first, depending on if they move Kreider/target a first as part of that deal, changes the conversation. That's potentially an additional guy from their short list.

I think that is spot on with krebs...wasn't crazy about him at #6 but if you are talking about #20 or mid-teens and he's still there than real good chance he's the best player on the board at that point

 

[Edge]

Feels like some people think the Rangers forward depth is bad and some people think the D depth is bad. Maybe depends on how the rangers themselves feel

It might not be bad, so much as incomplete.

They want higher-end scoring to compliment the depth pieces they have. And they want a mobile blue line. Some guys will apply that in more offensive situations, other guys will be about getting to the puck and getting it to a higher end talent to let them do their their, and other guys will be about covering ground.

The disagreement might be about whether one believes a specific prospect fits that criteria.

For example, the Rangers could view Krebs as a legit top six forward with offensive upside that blossoms when he isn't playing for a team that barely scraps together more than a dozen wins. Someone else might look at Krebs and see a compliment player.

I use him as an example because I can see where he might be a divisive player if he were the pick.

 

[Levitate]

I think people are viewing the Rangers D as lacking a true #1 and therefor incomplete, but those guys aren’t going to be a given when you’re not drafting a D top 3

A guy like Miller is maybe our best bet at a #1 including this draft unless they pick Byram instead of Kakko, but currently the draft process has people worked up at the idea of new prospects with unlimited potential. Miller has the size and physical abilities to fill in that role people want though

 

[True Blue]

I use him as an example because I can see where he might be a divisive player if he were the pick.

He will be. If somehow they take him and pass on a Boldy or Zegras or Dach that would be very disappointing (Let the next wave of debating commence......).

Krebs is not a player that I envision having the high end ability to eventually push Zbad to 2nd line.

Ditto for Caufield as watching these finals again reinstates that you cannot teach size.

 

[Thirty One]

He will be. If somehow they take him and pass on a Boldy or Zegras or Dach that would be very disappointing (Let the next wave of debating commence......).

Ditto for Caufield as watching these finals again reinstates that you cannot teach size.

You just haven't had the right teacher.

 

[Leetch3]

Feels like some people think the Rangers forward depth is bad and some people think the D depth is bad. Maybe depends on how the rangers themselves feel

I think the forward depth and d depth gets skewed a bit by the fact that more of the forwards are already in the NHL and not being counted...but that said it also depends on the quality of prospects. overall we might have blueline depth but I certainly wouldn't say we have a surplus of future top pair guys or a clear cut future #1. so huge difference if you are talking about a guy that you believe is a top pair guy vs a dman that projects similar to deangelo, keane, fox, lundkvist etc

 

[Mac n Gs]

And keeping in mind that it's not like I have typed list front of me. So there going to be names that just aren't coming up in conversations. So there are plenty of guys who I am sure are being eyed.

And obviously some guys carry a high probability of being out of range. So the Rangers might really like Cozens, but they aren't likely to get close to him. But you also never know what the future holds and they'll want their notes for down the line - even if it's five years from now.



I wouldn't have wanted Krebs at 6, but I think the value is there for a teens pick. In the Rangers case it might come down to having Krebs + Seider vs. Newhook/Zegras/Cozens. It's been said for a while the Rangers want quality over quanity, but could find themselves in a scenario where they are significantly more content to take two prospects they rated 85 over one prospect they rated 88.

I will say that having an extra first, depending on if they move Kreider/target a first as part of that deal, changes the conversation. That's potentially an additional guy from their short list.

Unless Cozens falls, I don’t see Krebs getting past Edmonton (assuming they don’t go Broberg). It’s been said a bunch already, but I can’t see them risking a US kid that can leave via the college route. Krebs gives them a Western Canada kid that can appease the fan base as a young potential piece to add next to CMD. That and the whole grit, leadership, tenacity thing.

Holland might just play it safe there and get the easy positive PR.

 

[TheBloodyNine]

I've always suspected it, and I think or two other people said he was on the short list, but he's never a name I specifically heard mentioned to me. Ditto for Newhook, though I'd put him in the "highly likely" category with Zegras.

Specific names that were mentioned, that I can think of off the top of my head:

Cozens (for a while)
Caufield
McCarthy
Dorofyev
Krebs
Seider
York
Johnson
Broberg
Pelletier
Tomasino
Afanasyev

Suspected names:
Zegras
Newhook
Byram
Suzuki
Turcotte


Don't think is on the radar:
Kaliyev
Laovie
Dach
Knight
Boldy


Names I've heard nothing about:
Podkolzin
Soderstrom
Brink
Fagemo

Hughes and Kakko are givens.

Thank you. Gotta say I'd be sad if Dach wasn't on their radar. I love that kid - a center with size and skill and he's got an attitude.

 

[Levitate]

He will be. If somehow they take him and pass on a Boldy or Zegras or Dach that would be very disappointing (Let the next wave of debating commence......).

Krebs is not a player that I envision having the high end ability to eventually push Zbad to 2nd line.

Ditto for Caufield as watching these finals again reinstates that you cannot teach size.

Neither team in the finals is particularly big. It’s less size and more ability to play in traffic and fight into the high chance scoring areas

 

[Leetch3]

Unless Cozens falls, I don’t see Krebs getting past Edmonton (assuming they don’t go Broberg). It’s been said a bunch already, but I can’t see them risking a US kid that can leave via the college route. Krebs gives them a Western Canada kid that can appease the fan base as a young potential piece to add next to CMD. That and the whole grit, leadership, tenacity thing.

Holland might just play it safe there and get the easy positive PR.

i doubt holland is worried about fans fears due to the teams poor drafting in the past. he's never been worried about picking college kids

 

[Edge]

He will be. If somehow they take him and pass on a Boldy or Zegras or Dach that would be very disappointing (Let the next wave of debating commence......).

Ditto for Caufield as watching these finals again reinstates that you cannot teach size.

I can see that being a fierce one, and I can't rule it out as a possibility. Having said that, I could also see a scenario where someone like Krebs gets traded to a playoff bound WHL team and all of sudden he skyrockets up everyone's prospects list next season. He is a tougher one to judge because he really is an island out there. The intrigue is what he does whenever he is surrounded by talent --- tournaments, etc. So the question becomes, is he a guy capable of driving play when he's surrounded by good talent, or is he the guy who rises to the level of the top talent? That might be the difference between a team having him in their top 10, vs. having him in the mid-teens.

I think people are viewing the Rangers D as lacking a true #1 and therefor incomplete, but those guys aren’t going to be a given when you’re not drafting a D top 3

A guy like Miller is maybe our best bet at a #1 including this draft unless they pick Byram instead of Kakko, but currently the draft process has people worked up at the idea of new prospects with unlimited potential. Miller has the size and physical abilities to fill in that role people want though

I think in the absence of an opportunity to get a clear-cut, potential number one defenseman (a guy who everyone thinks has a high probability of becoming that type of player at the draft), I am fairly okay getting useful pieces who can serve a role.

I fully admit a guy like Seider is a little hot and cold for me. When he's been on, he's arguably looked like a guy with legit top-4 potential, maybe even first-pair ability. When he's been off, he looks like a late first rounder. But he's an example of a guy a team would draft for upside and hope to hit a homerun. In some ways, his arch and his potential isn't all that different than Miller last year.

 

[Mac n Gs]

i doubt holland is worried about fans fears due to the teams poor drafting in the past. he's never been worried about picking college kids

Right, but that was in Detroit. This is Edmonton.

 

[Leetch3]

Right, but that was in Detroit. This is Edmonton.

detroit the city isn't exactly paradise...the issue is more that the oilers are terribly run not the city itself. holland's job is to fix that.

when was the last time the oilers got burned by a college kid? mike comrie threatened but then signed...and you can lose the rights to CHL players after only 2 years so why wouldn't that be a concern?

you definitely aren't the only one with this opinion, if anything most people seem to think this way. i just think its overblown

 

[Edge]

Unless Cozens falls, I don’t see Krebs getting past Edmonton (assuming they don’t go Broberg). It’s been said a bunch already, but I can’t see them risking a US kid that can leave via the college route. Krebs gives them a Western Canada kid that can appease the fan base as a young potential piece to add next to CMD. That and the whole grit, leadership, tenacity thing.

Holland might just play it safe there and get the easy positive PR.

I think Edmonton might just go the European route as well, or even "reach" for a guy who some have slotted a bit lower. Whether that's a guy like Harley, who is all over the place on lists, or whoever.

It also depends on a few factors. If Podkolzin doesn't freefall, if Caufield slides up, if Turcutte goes higher. You're potentially looking at a scenario where Cozens or Dach could be on that board.

We're at that weird time period where there's a bunch of guys who could go into any number of slots.

I also think there's someone like Broberg has a shot to go quite a bit higher than some are pegging him.

 

[Ghost of jas]

I've heard Newhook is definitely on the list of trade up targets and i know Heinola is monitored closely for #20.

This makes me very happy.

 

[Edge]

Thank you. Gotta say I'd be sad if Dach wasn't on their radar. I love that kid - a center with size and skill and he's got an attitude.

I'm sure he's on the list, it just might be not be a scenario where he's a guy for whom they'd trade up, or they might have other guys they like a little more.

I always tell people to be careful with the interview process as well. Sometimes the interviews are indicative of prospects at the top of their lists. It could be a guy they like in the second or third, or they want to get to know the player better because they might not have the chance again, or they're unsure about certain things (personality, an experience, etc.).

For example, the Rangers didn't have a chance to chit chat with Kakko, but they're not going with anyone else other than Hughes. Period.

That will also apply to other prospects. It's possible some players they interviewed were once considered for 20, but might be a little lower now.

 

[Mac n Gs]

detroit the city isn't exactly paradise...the issue is more that the oilers are terribly run not the city itself. holland's job is to fix that.

when was the last time the oilers got burned by a college kid? mike comrie threatened but then signed...and you can lose the rights to CHL players after only 2 years so why wouldn't that be a concern?

you definitely aren't the only one with this opinion, if anything most people seem to think this way. i just think its overblown

They also haven’t drafted any high-profile USHL/USNTDP picks in the last decade. If they do, they’ve been mid-to-late rounders of zero consequence because know they suck at drafting after the first or second round. Their two highest profile picks are probably Caleb Jones (edit: ignore since he went WHL post-USHL) and then Petry like 11 years ago.

Given the current state of their team, leaks of frustration from McDavid, and everything else that coincides with Oilers hockey, it’s not really a place where I can see them risking a high-profile pick bolting after 4 years. I could be totally off base here, but I’m just calling it as I see it.

A CHL or Euro prospect makes more sense to me for them when you factor in the mitigated risk and long-term cost control.

I think Edmonton might just go the European route as well, or even "reach" for a guy who some have slotted a bit lower. Whether that's a guy like Harley, who is all over the place on lists, or whoever.

It also depends on a few factors. If Podkolzin doesn't freefall, if Caufield slides up, if Turcutte goes higher. You're potentially looking at a scenario where Cozens or Dach could be on that board.

We're at that weird time period where there's a bunch of guys who could go into any number of slots.

I also think there's someone like Broberg has a shot to go quite a bit higher than some are pegging him.

Broberg is someone I’ve guessed they’d love for a while. He has the tantalizing skillset that can get fans invested again and maybe start giving them more hope. If a big WHL C falls, it’s also easy to market that to your fans.

I don’t think we can discount how dangerously the alarm bells are going off there with STH investments tanking and the immediate asset/cap landscape looking like a hellhole.

 

[Off Sides]

I have Krebs at 10 on my want list. Virtually tied with Boldy who I have at 9, yet in the same tier as the centers.

I do not think my top 10 changes, my list is based on a couple things, what I think the Rangers need most in their prospect pool, and then the players who I like most who fit into that. Not a pure ranking of best player or a mock draft, more so just my want list based on nothing but various scouting reports, YouTube, other free videos, position and feel. Some just have more exposure out there than others too.

Not even going to rank the top 2

Byram
Turcotte

Zegras
Newhook
Dach
Cozens
Boldy
Krebs

 

[TheBloodyNine]

They also haven’t drafted any high-profile USHL/USNTDP picks in the last decade. If they do, they’ve been mid-to-late rounders of zero consequence because know they suck at drafting after the first or second round. Their two highest profile picks are probably Caleb Jones and then Petry like 11 years ago.

I just did a quick run-through of Edmonton's draft history. The last US born player who took a college route that they drafted was Joe Hulbig in 1992.

 

[CaptTennille]

Krebs is a guy that despite not having the ceiling of a top flight offensive dynamo, elevates the entire team when he is on the ice. He can create in almost every situation and reminds me a bit of Zuccarello, in that he is extremely adept at finding East-West seams with slot passes or feathered-backhands. Straw that stirs the drink type player.

His defensive abilities also make a perceived lack of high end flash easier to swallow. I like the allure of Newhook's skillset more, but if I was offered either player and it was set in stone they would become a Ranger, I'd really have to sit down and consider my choice. Krebs upside of a 60+ point defensive center/winger who can PK and jump throughout the lineup is extremely valuable, even more so in the post-season.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Neither team in the finals is particularly big. It’s less size and more ability to play in traffic and fight into the high chance scoring areas

St Louis is the 2nd heaviest team in the league by weight and have an average roster height of 6'2". They play heavy too.

Boston is more of a mixed bag but you're right, it's more about mentality than sheer size but normally one doesn't come without the other.