Prospect Info: Draft 2025 - Waiting for the Draft Lotto

[Empoleon8771]

Yeah I think if you 11 and 12 you keep one and use the other for quantity.

Which I know is funny coming from me. But I don't really see the sense in having TWO mediocre first round picks when they hold perceived value. Grab a lower first and a third or something similar if you can.

Yeah I'd prefer to drop a couple of spots to gain another second, so something like #12 for #17 and #41. Going from #12 to #25 is a bit further than I'd like to drop, but #12 to #17 would be fine because it still has them in that Kindel/Reschny/Bear tier.

I think my "ideal" draft at this point is they get the Rangers 1st and trade down for something like #17 and #41, while getting Eklund with their own 1st and Kindel with the other 1st. Coming out of this draft with 2 1sts, 2 2nds and 3 3rds would be a nice outcome.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Yeah I'd prefer to drop a couple of spots to gain another second, so something like #12 for #17 and #41. Going from #12 to #25 is a bit further than I'd like to drop, but #12 to #17 would be fine because it still has them in that Kindel/Reschny/Bear tier.

I think my "ideal" draft at this point is they get the Rangers 1st and trade down for something like #17 and #41, while getting Eklund with their own 1st and Kindel with the other 1st. Coming out of this draft with 2 1sts, 2 2nds and 3 3rds would be a nice outcome.

Would be REALLY nice to have even more quantity in NEXT year's draft, honestly. Use this draft to build out your scratch off pool and next year's to hope you snag a star. I mean clearly this is such a crapshoot that none of this is anything close to predetermined but you get the idea.

 

[Pancakes]

Yeah I'd prefer to drop a couple of spots to gain another second, so something like #12 for #17 and #41. Going from #12 to #25 is a bit further than I'd like to drop, but #12 to #17 would be fine because it still has them in that Kindel/Reschny/Bear tier.

I think my "ideal" draft at this point is they get the Rangers 1st and trade down for something like #17 and #41, while getting Eklund with their own 1st and Kindel with the other 1st.

The Athletic's mock draft had Aitcheson available at 14 and Eklund at 13. Yohe took Jackson Smith for some reason. I know Jesse isn't high on him.

Anyways let's say you've got Eklund and Aitcheson available at 11 and 12. Why trade back in that scenario? Looks like a pretty good couple of picks to me.

I don't have a problem with Dubas being prepared to trade back in the event that everyone he wants is off board by then but there could be some good pieces there depending on what teams are high on.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

The Athletic's mock draft had Aitcheson available at 14 and Eklund at 13. Yohe took Jackson Smith for some reason. I know Jesse isn't high on him.

Anyways let's say you've got Eklund and Aitcheson available at 11 and 12. Why trade back in that scenario? Looks like a pretty good couple of picks to me.

I don't have a problem with Dubas being prepared to trade back in the event that everyone he wants is off board by then but there could be some good pieces there depending on what teams are high on.

C'mon, Cakes.

We all know the reason.

 

[Pancakes]

C'mon, Cakes.

We all know the reason.

I was trying to be charitable and not write a bad word there

 

[Empoleon8771]

The Athletic's mock draft had Aitcheson available at 14 and Eklund at 13. Yohe took Jackson Smith for some reason. I know Jesse isn't high on him.

Anyways let's say you've got Eklund and Aitcheson available at 11 and 12. Why trade back in that scenario? Looks like a pretty good couple of picks to me.

I don't have a problem with Dubas being prepared to trade back in the event that everyone he wants is off board by then but there could be some good pieces there depending on what teams are high on.

Eklund is an absolute no brainer to me at #11, but I'm not all that high on Aitcheson or Smith so I'd rather get an extra 2nd to trade down a few spots. I wouldn't be mad about picking either of them, but I'm not pounding on the table for them like I would be with Eklund.

I'd rather get an extra mid 2nd to see how the board looks at #17 than take a guy at #12 that I'm not super wild about.

 

[GilbertSeinfeld]

C'mon, Cakes.

We all know the reason.

Ahhh, you beat me to it.

 

[Pancakes]

Eklund is an absolute no brainer to me at #11, but I'm not all that high on Aitcheson or Smith so I'd rather get an extra 2nd to trade down a few spots.

I'd rather get an extra mid 2nd to see how the board looks at #17 than take a guy at #12 that I'm not super wild about.

Jesse loves Aitcheson which is enough for me. Based on his analysis we should be pretty thrilled if we walk out of this draft with Eklund and Aitcheson.

 

[Jared Grayden]

Jesse loves Aitcheson which is enough for me. Based on his analysis we should be pretty thrilled if we walk out of this draft with Eklund and Aitcheson.

I would be surprised if Dubas/Clark are similarly high on Aitcheson.

 

[Pancakes]

I would be surprised if Dubas/Clark are similarly high on Aitcheson.

That is why it's wise not to get too hyped up about xyz prospect because the Pens draft board likely looks very different from what any of us are considering. Especially at 11 don't be shocked if the Pens go off the beaten path with their pick.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

I just did a mock for my own knowledge and purposes. I think there is a good chance Eklund or O'Brien will be there at 11. It largely depends on McQueen at this point. I think there will be a run on centers from 4-7 (Uta; Nsh; Phi; Bos). So four of Frondell, Hagens, Martin, Desnoyers, McQueen and O'Brien will be taken there. I feel like Smith and Mrtka will be two of the next three picks among Sea, Buf and Ana. The other pick is going to be a major wild card. I could easily see a trade here by Buffalo to trade out, and some team coming up for a McQueen.

So I think we could have our pick of Eklund and O'Brien if it shakes down like this. I think we will be fine at 11. At 12, not sure but Aitcheson or McQueen seem like good dart throws if we get the pick and if we draft a center at 11.

So for me, I am looking at some combination of Eklund-McQueen, or O'Brien-Aitcheson if we get two picks.

I still think NYR keeps 12, gives us 2026 1st, then they will trade 12 for immediate help (a player who plays north-south, obviously). This could be the Mika Zibanejad trade, it could be the Artemi Panarin trade, it could be tied to a Lafreniere trade, etc.

That is my early view on how this is going to go down.

 

[PensFutures]

If we could use a couple 3rds to acquire another 2nd, I wonder if STL would trade their 1st for 2 2nds?

 

[Jag68Sid87]

That is why it's wise not to get too hyped up about xyz prospect because the Pens draft board likely looks very different from what any of us are considering. Especially at 11 don't be shocked if the Pens go off the beaten path with their pick.

I would be cool with that, swing for the fences if we can.

 

[Empoleon8771]

If you go by Wheeler, the tier 4 guys are Aitcheson, Bear, Reschny, Potter, Smith, Hensler, Lakovic and Kindel. I genuinely like Kindel but that's about it, I'm pretty lukewarm on the rest of the guys there. I think Kindel at #12 would be a bit of a reach, which is why I'd rather trade down to gain an extra 2nd to take Kindel closer to #17.

Jesse loves Aitcheson which is enough for me. Based on his analysis we should be pretty thrilled if we walk out of this draft with Eklund and Aitcheson.

I just don't feel that way with Aitcheson, I think his upside is basically a lefty Trouba but I see some pretty serious red flags with how he'll translate to the NHL. He's not going to pan out as a massive goal scorer from defense like he has been in juniors, so how much offense is he realistically going to provide once he hits the NHL?

His skating is strong and he's very physical and good defensively, but I have too many concerns about the puck skills and offense for me to really want him. That's not saying I'd be upset if they took him, but I'm not totally sold on Aitcheson.

 

[SEALBound]

Yeah I'd prefer to drop a couple of spots to gain another second, so something like #12 for #17 and #41. Going from #12 to #25 is a bit further than I'd like to drop, but #12 to #17 would be fine because it still has them in that Kindel/Reschny/Bear tier.

I think my "ideal" draft at this point is they get the Rangers 1st and trade down for something like #17 and #41, while getting Eklund with their own 1st and Kindel with the other 1st. Coming out of this draft with 2 1sts, 2 2nds and 3 3rds would be a nice outcome.

I assume you'd only want to drop back the Rangers pick?

If all good centers are off the board and someone wanted one of the dmen I would being willing to drop back either pick. Even something like Reschny and Kindel would be fine.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

From the little cursory research I've done... Eklund definitely seems like the best guy based on what is likely available at that slot. But of course I'd think that.

Everyone else around our pick seems kind low-ceiling, overly-risky or has questions re: strength of league they play in. Though to be fair some of those considerations are a constant no matter the draft or draft slot.

 

[SEALBound]

If we could use a couple 3rds to acquire another 2nd, I wonder if STL would trade their 1st for 2 2nds?

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But to take who though? There's really no one in that 25-30 range that I think is worth it sans maybe Cole McKinney. I'm high on him but only as a two-way 3C/.

 

[Kasperi kapanen]

I think the worst case scenario with the draft is that McQueen's back is a mess and the top-10 goes exactly as the top-10 is currently projected. But even with that, I don't think they're sitting in a bad spot with Smith, Aitcheson, Kindel, Reschny, Carbonneau and Cootes as their choices at #11. With getting the Rangers pick, I'd be planning on Smith at #11 and whichever forward you like best at #12.

I think the best case scenario is that McQueen's back is good (meaning he goes in the top-10) and another guy jumps into the top-10 to push Eklund and one of Frondell, Mrtka or Martin out of the top-10. Frondell had a pretty poor U18 tournament, so I can possibly see him sliding in the draft. That Button mock draft has Lakovic going at #10, so you just need something like that plus McQueen's back looking good for the Penguins to be in a good spot at #11 and #12.

So basically, the worst case scenario is Smith and one of Kindel/Reschny/Bear/Carbonneau while the best case scenario is Eklund and one of Martin/Mrtka/Frondell. More realistically, I think they get Eklund and Smith.

Worst case scenario was moving down from 9th to 11th overall.

 

[Jared Grayden]

I just don't feel that way with Aitcheson, I think his upside is basically a lefty Trouba but I see some pretty serious red flags with how he'll translate to the NHL. He's not going to pan out as a massive goal scorer from defense like he has been in juniors, so how much offense is he realistically going to provide once he hits the NHL?

His skating is strong and he's very physical and good defensively, but I have too many concerns about the puck skills and offense for me to really want him. That's not saying I'd be upset if they took him, but I'm not totally sold on Aitcheson.

Durability is what I worry about with a dman that physical and average sized. Dumba/Lindgren/Trouba are some comps. that really declined quickly in their mid/late 20s likely from their bodies breaking down. If Aitcheson's intensity could be put into Mrtka or Smith it would be an easy top 10 pick.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Durability is what I worry about with a dman that physical and average sized. Dumba/Lindgren/Trouba are some comps. that really declined quickly in their mid/late 20s likely from their bodies breaking down. If Aitcheson's intensity could be put into Mrtka or Smith it would be an easy top 10 pick.

Yeah if I could pick, I'd definitely prefer Mrtka to Aitcheson. I also have concerns about Mrtka's offense and what he can offer at the next level, but he's bigger, a righty and doesn't come with some of the puck skill concerns I have with Aitcheson.

 

[PensFutures]

But to take who though? There's really no one in that 25-30 range that I think is worth it sans maybe Cole McKinney. I'm high on him but only as a two-way 3C/.

Wouldnt STLs pick be 17-20? I would rather just have the 18 or 19 instead of like 55ish (washington) and whatever the extra 2nd would be.

 

[Pancakes]

If you go by Wheeler, the tier 4 guys are Aitcheson, Bear, Reschny, Potter, Smith, Hensler, Lakovic and Kindel. I genuinely like Kindel but that's about it, I'm pretty lukewarm on the rest of the guys there. I think Kindel at #12 would be a bit of a reach, which is why I'd rather trade down to gain an extra 2nd to take Kindel closer to #17.



I just don't feel that way with Aitcheson, I think his upside is basically a lefty Trouba but I see some pretty serious red flags with how he'll translate to the NHL. He's not going to pan out as a massive goal scorer from defense like he has been in juniors, so how much offense is he realistically going to provide once he hits the NHL?

His skating is strong and he's very physical and good defensively, but I have too many concerns about the puck skills and offense for me to really want him. That's not saying I'd be upset if they took him, but I'm not totally sold on Aitcheson.

Well regardless I think there's a good chance that someone appealing will be available at 12. Even if you don't like Aitcheson there's a chance that someone else will drop to that slot unexpectedly.

I feel like once you get past the top 6 (Schaefer, Misa, Martone, Desnoyers, Hagens, Frondell) that there's a lot of potential chaos with the draft order. But there's no chance any of those guys drop out of the top 10.

 

[Jacob]

Why are we even still talking about the Rangers pick?

 

[The Old Master]

Why are we even still talking about the Rangers pick?

we've run out of things to say about our pick.

 

[Jared Grayden]

Yeah if I could pick, I'd definitely prefer Mrtka to Aitcheson. I also have concerns about Mrtka's offense and what he can offer at the next level, but he's bigger, a righty and doesn't come with some of the puck skill concerns I have with Aitcheson.

I suspect the reason this draft is perceived as so weak is because the defenseman are actually the weak link in the draft class whereas the forwards are relatively average for a draft year. Maybe the lack of clearly defined centers is an issue but I really think the blue line is where this draft class is uniquely bad. After Schaefer it just looks like a bunch of question marks.