Prospect Info: Draft 2025 - Waiting for the Draft Lotto

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Gimme some stupid GMs obsessed with size ahead of us so Martin and Aitcheson end up being our two picks. (If the Rangers give us their pick)

 

[Empoleon8771]

Gimme some stupid GMs obsessed with size ahead of us so Martin and Aitcheson end up being our two picks. (If the Rangers give us their pick)

I feel like Martin and Aitcheson are the two guys that will go ahead of them based on "GMs obsessed with size"

 

[lokomotiv15]

If the Pens want to take a risk at #11 on high upside, I’d rather them take Ryabkin than McQueen given the injury situation…assuming the usual suspects are gone…

I don't know if Ryabkin is high-upside enough vs. risk to take a flyer on that early. I've wanted to love him as a prospect for two years. He put up record #s as a junior player, plays a super physical brand of hockey, has a pretty good tool-box. Unfortunately, he's got a laundry list of derogatory checks against him. Out of shape to border-line pudgy. Bad attitude, have heard his teammates aren't fond of him. Makes selfish, dirty plays that he has been suspended for, plays a lazy brand of one way hockey.

At the end of the day though, he's a kid who just turned 18 and has a lot of room to grow as a player and a person.

Can't believe the spot we've found ourselves in after being in a top-5 spot a few months ago. We're discussing if we should draft Gen-Z Vladimir Kruton or an 18-year old kid who might have a worse back than Mario.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Yeah that's an easy yes for me. The bigger point of hesitation I'd have is how far I'm trading down in 2025 to get that 2026 1st. If I'm still getting Kindel or Reschny with the 2025 1st, I'm taking that offer with no hesitation.

I figure that deal would be something like #11 for #22 and a 2026 1st, with getting Kindel or Reschny at #22. I'd take that without any sort of hesitation, which is why I'm pretty doubtful anyone would actually offer that.

Well the whole point is you can’t guarantee you get them.

Anyway, I feel like this years 24+25 is better from the Flyers than 22 and a late 1st next year. Unless you can get it from a team you think could regress.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Well the whole point is you can’t guarantee you get them.

Anyway, I feel like this years 24+25 is better from the Flyers than 22 and a late 1st next year. Unless you can get it from a team you think could regress.

I think you just trade down a few spots then to gain an extra 2nd this year then. Something like #11 to Montreal for #16 and #41 and take Kindel at #16 and have an extra early/mid 2nd.

San Jose traded #14 and #42 to move up to #11 and take Dickinson last year. I'd pretty easily do that with #11 this year if that opportunity was available.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

What a shitty outcome after the prospect of nabbing a top 5 pick this year hahaha.

End of season unbeatability on Jarry's back, then 2 lotto wins leapfrog us pushing us out of the top 10. Can't make this stuff up.

 

[Jesse]

Scott Wheeler shared last night that he expects recent performances and rising stock to put Brady Martin firmly inside the top 7. Question is: who is sliding down with some of these guys rising up? Desnoyers?

 

[Ugene Magic]

Scott Wheeler shared last night that he expects recent performances and rising stock to put Brady Martin firmly inside the top 7. Question is: who is sliding down with some of these guys rising up? Desnoyers?

It's a Center's market, I see wingers and D-men getting pushed out.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Scott Wheeler shared last night that he expects recent performances and rising stock to put Brady Martin firmly inside the top 7. Question is: who is sliding down with some of these guys rising up? Desnoyers?

Probably Eklund or McQueen, based mostly on how McQueen's back is looking. Desnoyers is having a great playoff run in the Q, I can't see him sliding. I think Eklund runs into a problem of being an undersized winger while being surrounded by a lot of big and physical centers and defensemen.

If McQueen's back is looking okay, I can see the top-10 looking something like:

1. Misa
2. Schaefer
3. Hagens
4. Desnoyers
5. O'Brien
6. McQueen
7. Martin
8. Martone
9. Frondell
10. Mrtka

I also wonder if the Islanders trade down from #1 to #3 to take Hagens, since he's a local boy plus they can accrue a lot of futures they desperately need by trading with Chicago.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Scott Wheeler shared last night that he expects recent performances and rising stock to put Brady Martin firmly inside the top 7. Question is: who is sliding down with some of these guys rising up? Desnoyers?

If you mean out of the top 7? I think one of Hagens, O’Brien, Martone is the faller. If SEA goes D-man maybe one of those 3 gets to 9 or 10?

I don’t think any of the centers + Martone are going outside the top 10 though.

To our pick at 11.. it’s not illogical to think Eklund? But maybe Anaheim thinks they have so much size they can simply add talent with him. Buffalo seems willing to take midgets too but maybe he’s redundant for them.

 

[The Old Master]

So basically, the worst case scenario is Smith and one of Kindel/Reschny/Bear/Carbonneau while the best case scenario is Eklund and one of Martin/Mrtka/Frondell. More realistically, I think they get Eklund and Smith.

the best would be eklund/ or other (who might fall) and next years first.

 

[Empoleon8771]

the best would be eklund/ or other (who might fall) and next years first.

I would pretty easily take Eklund and Martin over Eklund and a 2026 1st.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Frustrating but falling from 9 to 11 realistically doesn't change the outcome that much. Would be a lot more infuriating in a draft that wasn't like... "top three-ish then whatever after that" in nature.

 

[SEALBound]

Yeah, mock from yesterday has the Pens picking Martin…

NHL Top 16 Mock Draft: Who will Islanders take after surprise lottery win?

With the results of the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery in, Sam Cosentino provides a projected mock draft of the top 16 prospects.

www.sportsnet.ca

But Button has him going to Philly and the Pens taking McQueen…please god no lol…if the Pens pass on Eklund to take him, they’re morons

Craig Button’s Mock Draft: New York Islanders take defenceman Matthew Schaefer at No. 1 | TSN

The New York Islanders will select first overall in the 2025 NHL Draft after winning the draft lottery and TSN Director of Scouting Craig Button has them addressing the blueline, selecting Erie Otters defenceman Matthew Schaefer at No. 1.

www.tsn.ca

Those are both "best case scenarios" because either Martin or Eklund at 11 would be a win. Even JOB would be a win.

Scott Wheeler shared last night that he expects recent performances and rising stock to put Brady Martin firmly inside the top 7. Question is: who is sliding down with some of these guys rising up? Desnoyers?

I think the prime candidate to "fall" right now is Frondell. And then Eklund. And that's not so much them "dropping" as much as it is others "rising" (ala Martin).

Frustrating but falling from 9 to 11 realistically doesn't change the outcome that much. Would be a lot more infuriating in a draft that wasn't like... "top three-ish then whatever after that" in nature.

For me, the most frustrating part is the several weeks of careful analysis and discussions revolving around drafting at 9 are down the drain now we have to start all over.

Here's my hopeful now:
NYR give us #12.
12+62 to Montreal for 16+41
11+41+84 to Seattle for #8

Why we do it: We get a quality center. We can catch a guy that has fallen or we can take Martin. Moving back to 16 still gets us a guy like Reschny or Kindel.
Why Seattle does it: They need defense. I firmly believe that one of Smith, Mrkta, or Aitchenson will be there at 11 and it's quite possible it's all three. They get an extra 2nd and 3rd for doing so.
Why Montreal does it: They get to move up as well.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Frustrating but falling from 9 to 11 realistically doesn't change the outcome that much. Would be a lot more infuriating in a draft that wasn't like... "top three-ish then whatever after that" in nature.

Yeah like I said last night, I think the lottery results screw Chicago, Philly and Boston far more than it screws the Penguins. Wheeler's tier list he released yesterday was:

Tier 1: Schaefer and Misa
Tier 2: Hagens, Martone, Desnoyers and Frondell
Tier 3: O'Brien, Eklund, McQueen, Mrtka, Martin and Carbonneau
Tier 4: Aitcheson, Bear, Reschny, Potter, Smith, Hensler, Lakovic and Kindel

Falling from 9 to 11 still has them in tier 3, but the big losers were Chicago (fell from tier 1 to tier 2) and Boston (fell from tier 2 to tier 3). Philly stayed in tier 2 but I think they take a tier 3 player over Frondell, which is why I think they lost as well.

 

[Jacob]

Frondell had a bad U18 and Eklund wasn't there due to age and both are coming off playoff runs where they sort of had to give way to the veterans that Djurgarden loaded up on, so scouts with short memories will probably start moving them down the rankings.

But O'Brien seems to have had a mediocre playoffs so I could see him falling too.

I don't really recall the U18s making a huge difference in the rankings. If it did, we'd be hearing more about Reschny as a top-12 pick but we aren't. And he had a monster playoffs too. I even remember way back when Malkin being "merely average" at the U18s but nobody cared.

 

[Jared Grayden]

Frondell had a bad U18 and Eklund wasn't there due to age and both are coming off playoff runs where they sort of had to give way to the veterans that Djurgarden loaded up on, so scouts with short memories will probably start moving them down the rankings.

But O'Brien seems to have had a mediocre playoffs so I could see him falling too.

I don't really recall the U18s making a huge difference in the rankings. If it did, we'd be hearing more about Reschny as a top-12 pick but we aren't. And he had a monster playoffs too. I even remember way back when Malkin being "merely average" at the U18s but nobody cared.

Peters and Robinson just said a few days ago how this was the first u18s they've seen in at least a decade where none of the draft year top 10 prospects looked like top 10 prospects. And the best players were actually from next year's draft class. That includes Martin and Reschny.

 

[SEALBound]

Frondell had a bad U18 and Eklund wasn't there due to age and both are coming off playoff runs where they sort of had to give way to the veterans that Djurgarden loaded up on, so scouts with short memories will probably start moving them down the rankings.

But O'Brien seems to have had a mediocre playoffs so I could see him falling too.

I don't really recall the U18s making a huge difference in the rankings. If it did, we'd be hearing more about Reschny as a top-12 pick but we aren't. I even remember way back when Malkin being "merely average" at the U18s but nobody cared.

Agree. The U18 will give several guys a boost, like Martin. Enough to get him above Frondell or Eklund, we shall see.

The biggest wild cards to me are Mrtka, Smith, and Aitcheson. The top 15 if VERY forward heavy but if you need defense early, they are your best picks. Tough to know how scouts view some of the guys around the 8/9/10 slot.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Frondell had a bad U18 and Eklund wasn't there due to age and both are coming off playoff runs where they sort of had to give way to the veterans that Djurgarden loaded up on, so scouts with short memories will probably start moving them down the rankings.

But O'Brien seems to have had a mediocre playoffs so I could see him falling too.

I don't really recall the U18s making a huge difference in the rankings. If it did, we'd be hearing more about Reschny as a top-12 pick but we aren't. And he had a monster playoffs too. I even remember way back when Malkin being "merely average" at the U18s but nobody cared.

O'Brien had 3 goals and 11 points in 11 games in the playoffs, I don't think that's "drop in the draft" caliber.

I think the main guys that stick out as fallers are Martone, Frondell and Eklund. Eklund because he's an undersized Euro scoring winger, Frondell because he had a bad U18 and Martone because...well, I don't get this one because it makes no sense to me.

McQueen may also fall but that's health related that we can't predict until we know how his back is. If we know his back isn't looking good, he's definitely not going in the top-10.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Frondell had a bad U18 and Eklund wasn't there due to age and both are coming off playoff runs where they sort of had to give way to the veterans that Djurgarden loaded up on, so scouts with short memories will probably start moving them down the rankings.

But O'Brien seems to have had a mediocre playoffs so I could see him falling too.

I don't really recall the U18s making a huge difference in the rankings. If it did, we'd be hearing more about Reschny as a top-12 pick but we aren't. And he had a monster playoffs too. I even remember way back when Malkin being "merely average" at the U18s but nobody cared.

I have always thought Eklund could fall just on position. I think 11th is pushing it a bit though. But still possible.

I think for the Cs - either the Martin u18 hype cools significantly or O’Brien slips. I think one of those two will be the “final” center drafted out of Misa, Hagens, Frondell, Desnoyers, Martin, OB but both still go top 10.

My hot take is Frondell is going 3rd to Chicago.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Peters and Robinson just said a few days ago how this was the first u18s they've seen in at least a decade where none of the draft year top 10 prospects looked like top 10 prospects. And the best players were actually from next year's draft class. That includes Martin and Reschny.

lol that's kinda pathetic

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Peters and Robinson just said a few days ago how this was the first u18s they've seen in at least a decade where none of the draft year top 10 prospects looked like top 10 prospects.

Eh. Only 2 guys in McKenzie’s top 10 were even there. Feels reactionary.

 

[SEALBound]

I have always thought Eklund could fall just on position. I think 11th is pushing it a bit though. But still possible.

I think for the Cs - either the Martin u18 hype cools significantly or O’Brien slips. I think one of those two will be the “final” center drafted out of Misa, Hagens, Frondell, Desnoyers, Martin, OB but both still go top 10.

My hot take is Frondell is going 3rd to Chicago.

You think Chicago would opt for Frondell over Hagens?

That would be interesting for sure. I have Utah firmly taking Martone. I think he's exactly what they need. Trying to decide IF Chicago does that, does Utah go Hagens?

lol that's kinda pathetic

Speaks to the weakness of the 2025 draft and strength of the 2026 draft.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

You think Chicago would opt for Frondell over Hagens?

Well that is what I said. So yes

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

This definitely feels like one of those drafts where the top ten has like five guys in it that break 1000 games and maybe one or two of them are actual exceptional players then 11-32 is a giant grab-bag of busts and journeymen with a small handful of 1000+ game guys randomly mixed in.

So hopefully Dubas finds one of those because this doesn't feel like much of a prize for a truly miserable season.