Prospect Info: Draft 2025 - Waiting for the Draft Lotto

[CheckingLineCenter]

I don't really recall the U18s making a huge difference in the rankings. If it did, we'd be hearing more about Reschny as a top-12 pick but we aren't. And he had a monster playoffs too. I even remember way back when Malkin being "merely average" at the U18s but nobody cared.

Wasn’t his performance at the u18s really what pushed Hischier over Patrick? I could be misremembering.

 

[SEALBound]

Well that is what I said. So yes

Fair but did you have any insight or is that your 'out of thin air' hot take?

 

[Empoleon8771]

Utah's past few drafts really makes me think they'll go Desnoyers or Martone, they've gone really heavy on size in the past couple of drafts and I figure that trend continues. I'd bet it's Desnoyers personally.

Personally, the draft that I think makes the most sense based on team needs are:

1. Chicago: Misa (Chicago trades a bunch of futures to move up to #1)
2. San Jose: Schaefer
3. NYI: Hagens
4. Utah: Desnoyers
5. Predators: O'Brien
6. Philly: Martone
7. Boston: McQueen
8. Seattle: Frondell
9. Buffalo: Mrtka
10. Anaheim: Martin
11. Pittsburgh: Eklund

This isn't how I think the draft goes (I think Martin goes earlier and Martone goes later) but I think this draft makes the most sense.

 

[Peat]

This definitely feels like one of those drafts where the top ten has like five guys in it that break 1000 games and maybe one or two of them are actual exceptional players then 11-32 is a giant grab-bag of busts and journeymen with a small handful of 1000+ game guys randomly mixed in.

So hopefully Dubas finds one of those because this doesn't feel like much of a prize for a truly miserable season.

The real prize was the friends we lost along the way.

Would make a great name for an emo album.

 

[Gurglesons]

Utah's past few drafts really makes me think they'll go Desnoyers or Martone, they've gone really heavy on size in the past couple of drafts and I figure that trend continues. I'd bet it's Desnoyers personally.

Personally, the draft that I think makes the most sense based on team needs are:

1. Chicago: Misa (Chicago trades a bunch of futures to move up to #1)
2. San Jose: Schaefer
3. NYI: Hagens
4. Utah: Desnoyers
5. Predators: O'Brien
6. Philly: Martone
7. Boston: McQueen
8. Seattle: Frondell
9. Buffalo: Mrtka
10. Anaheim: Martin
11. Pittsburgh: Eklund

This isn't how I think the draft goes (I think Martin goes earlier and Martone goes later) but I think this draft makes the most sense.

I think McQueen is a huge probability for Utah if his medicals clear.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think McQueen is a huge probability for Utah if his medicals clear.

Yeah I can definitely see that as well, would just be kinda wild to see McQueen go before Desnoyers.

 

[Gurglesons]

Yeah I can definitely see that as well, would just be kinda wild to see McQueen go before Desnoyers.

I mean Desnoyers has the knock of playing in the Q.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Fair but did you have any insight or is that your 'out of thin air' hot take?

Thin air baby. gut feel. hot take. Simply think pro teams really like Frondell vs public. And their young F group is teensy.

Frondell over Martone/Hagens is similar to them going Levshuvnov over Buium/Demidov.

But I have zero insight or reasoning beyond that.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

It's fine the Pens are gonna somehow miraculously walk away with Martone and Martin at 11 and 12. Trust the process.

 

[SEALBound]

It's fine the Pens are gonna somehow miraculously walk away with Martone and Martin at 11 and 12. Trust the process.

You also told us you dreamt the Penguins won the draft lottery.

Your dream catcher might need recalibration.

 

[Jared Grayden]

The real prize was the friends we lost along the way.

Would make a great name for an emo album.

Poor Sullivan. Who do you think he would pick at #11? Maybe we'll find out at #12.

 

[Lust for Life]

You also told us you dreamt the Penguins won the draft lottery.

Your dream catcher might need recalibration.

What is f***ing weird is that I actually dreamt last night that the Islanders won and Pens dropped two positions. Then I woke up and saw the results.

 

[BusinessGoose]

It's extremely disappointing to be picking this late

 

[Empoleon8771]

The real kick in the nads with the lottery was that the Penguins were tied for the leading odds to get #1 with 1 ball left, only for them to lose that lottery to the one team below them in the running and then to lose to another team below them in the standings for the #2 pick.

I also think trading up should be considered an option if there is a guy you're really insistent on getting. Even throwing a 3rd to jump from #11 to #9 just to make sure you get Eklund seems to be worthwhile.

 

[SEALBound]

What is f***ing weird is that I actually dreamt last night that the Islanders won and Pens dropped two positions. Then I woke up and saw the results.

Who uhhh...did you dream we drafted?

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Oh yeah, if there's a guy that you're keyed in on and he's still available a few spots before you, that's where the multitude of 2nds and 3rds the next few years come in handy.

Somebody's gonna fall. They always do. If there's a Martone, a Martin, an Eklund sitting there, f*** it. Go for it.

 

[lokomotiv15]

Peters and Robinson just said a few days ago how this was the first u18s they've seen in at least a decade where none of the draft year top 10 prospects looked like top 10 prospects. And the best players were actually from next year's draft class. That includes Martin and Reschny.

I mentioned this in a post a bit over a week ago, and they are 100% correct. I know the D-1 players were down the scoring list for Canada, but if I had to rank who I wanted from that team moving forward it's a no brainer;
1:Villeneuve
2a: Roobroeck
2B: Verhoeff

Stenberg and Bjork look like they're going to be two extremely dangerous players, Berchild (While undersized) looked every bit as dangerous as Moore and like a supped up version of the even more undersized Mooney. Obviously Aaram-Olsen was the best player on an under-powered Norway team, but really had his absolute canon of a shot on display.

2026 is looking like its going to be the best draft to have lots of picks in the top-60 in quite some time.

 

[SEALBound]

The real kick in the nads with the lottery was that the Penguins were tied for the leading odds to get #1 with 1 ball left, only for them to lose that lottery to the one team below them in the running and then to lose to another team below them in the standings for the #2 pick.

I also think trading up should be considered an option if there is a guy you're really insistent on getting. Even throwing a 3rd to jump from #11 to #9 just to make sure you get Eklund seems to be worthwhile.

The time between ball #3 and ball #4 was the happiest time of my hockey life since the end of 2017.

 

[Empoleon8771]

If you want to talk the cost to move up in the draft, here's what the last couple of drafts had in terms of picks near the Penguins:

-2024: #11 for #14 and #42
-2024: #12 for #13 and a 2025 3rd
-2022: #11 for #27, #34 and #45
-2019: #11 for #14 and #45
-2016: #11 for #12 and #80

Although something to note, there has not been a trade-up in the top-10 since the 2008 draft. Moving up in the 20s is pretty common and moving up in the teens happens but is more rare, but trading up into the top-10 basically doesn't happen.

If you assume the values stay about the same, I would imagine you'd have to trade #63 to move up from #11 to #9. What you could do is trade up with that pick and trade back with the other, to do something like:

-#11 and #63 for #9
-#12 for #16 and #41

End up with picks #9, #16 and #41 in the first 2 rounds doing that.

 

[The Old Master]

Utah's past few drafts really makes me think they'll go Desnoyers or Martone, they've gone really heavy on size in the past couple of drafts and I figure that trend continues. I'd bet it's Desnoyers personally.

Personally, the draft that I think makes the most sense based on team needs are:

1. Chicago: Misa (Chicago trades a bunch of futures to move up to #1)
2. San Jose: Schaefer
3. NYI: Hagens
4. Utah: Desnoyers
5. Predators: O'Brien
6. Philly: Martone
7. Boston: McQueen
8. Seattle: Frondell
9. Buffalo: Mrtka
10. Anaheim: Martin
11. Pittsburgh: Eklund

This isn't how I think the draft goes (I think Martin goes earlier and Martone goes later) but I think this draft makes the most sense.

need to jump anaheim and get martin

 

[Empoleon8771]

need to jump anaheim and get martin

I think Martin probably goes higher than where I think he should be going.

I think Martin probably goes #7 or earlier, which would be more expensive than I'd be willing to pay to move up. I'm not paying more than a single 2nd to move up, which probably only gets them up to #9 or #8 at best.

 

[The Old Master]

I think Martin probably goes higher than where I think he should be going.

I think Martin probably goes #7 or earlier, which would be more expensive than I'd be willing to pay to move up. I'm not paying more than a single 2nd to move up, which probably only gets them up to #9 or #8 at best.

8 or 9 could be a player that fit/need perfect!
edit; as i see it we are picking at the end of a string of players that are rated very close. knowing that not all will make it i want the pens to move up and make the best pick form that group they can. and not wait for the scraps of whatever is left

 

[Empoleon8771]

Also if you really want to accrue some draft capital for this year, I'd be calling Philly about trading down with them. They have picks #24, #25, #36, #40, #45 and #48 in this draft and I would take advantage of trading down with them if the Rangers give the Penguins their 1st.

Based on that San Jose trade from 2022, I bet you could get something like #25, #40 and #45 for #12. In this draft, I'd probably rather have picks #11, #25, #40, #45 and #63 in the first 2 rounds than just #11, #12 and #63.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Also if you really want to accrue some draft capital for this year, I'd be calling Philly about trading down with them. They have picks #24, #25, #36, #40, #45 and #48 in this draft and I would take advantage of trading down with them if the Rangers give the Penguins their 1st.

Based on that San Jose trade from 2022, I bet you could get something like #25, #40 and #45 for #12. In this draft, I'd probably rather have picks #11, #25, #40, #45 and #63 in the first 2 rounds than just #11, #12 and #63.

Yeah I think if you have 11 and 12 in this draft you keep one and use the other for quantity.

Which I know is funny coming from me. But I don't really see the sense in having TWO mediocre first round picks when they hold perceived value. Grab a lower first and a third or something similar if you can.

 

[Pancakes]

I don't want to move up. Just keep the pick and make it. I don't trust the top end of this draft enough to want to spend the cost it would take to move up.

And I don't think any team would even be willing to let us move up anyways so probably a moot point.