Prospect Info: Draft 2025 - Waiting for the Draft Lotto

[CheckingLineCenter]

So exactly what we have been speculating about on here.

I was honestly somewhat confident he’d get to 9.

I am like 30/70 on him getting to 11. Even with Martin’s rise— I think it will take teams liking the D men in Smith/Mrtka and/or McQueen’s back checking out.

But yeah the league doesn’t value small wings that don’t project to have elite offense early in the draft.

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

I'm not sure that there's a stark difference in most drafts between any of the Top 10 prospects. Sure, there are some years where there is a clear top two or a really deep draft or a future star like Crosby or McDavid.

But a lot of drafts feature a lot of busts inside the Top 10 and a decent number of stars outside of the Top 10.

I'm not sure if I've seen a more wrong statement in any of these draft threads.

It's just so sad seeing the cope of some here trying to convince themselves and everyone else that this season wasn't an complete failure.

It went from "Picking 6-7-8 is basically the same as picking 4-5 and the Pens are def gonna pick 7th." To "Picking 9th is basically the same as picking 7th." To "Picking 11th is basically the same as picking 9th." To now, "I'm not sure that there's a stark difference in most drafts between any of the Top 10 prospects."

Using this "there's basically no difference between any two picks" you've convinced yourselves that 11th and 5th is the same. I wonder if there's a number that you losers wouldn't defend as basically being the 5th pick.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I'm pretty confident Eklund slides to the Penguins pick. It's not even about Eklund, it's that the draft in the 8-12 range has a lot of bigger and more physical defensemen and centers.

I think it’s reasonable to think it could happen but not likely enough where I’m confident.

 

[Jared Grayden]

I was honestly somewhat confident he’d get to 9.

I am like 30/70 on him getting to 11. Even with Martin’s rise— I think it will take teams liking the D men in Smith/Mrtka and/or McQueen’s back checking out.

But yeah the league doesn’t value small wings that don’t project to have elite offense early in the draft.

I expect O'Brien is ~100% guaranteed gone by #11 and little chance on Martin. Mrtka being a massive RHD seems highly probably to get drafted at least top 12. I'm still skeptical on McQueen being taken that early with his health.

 

[Empoleon8771]

If Eklund is gone at #11, I think the next best option in terms of a player with a similar skillset is probable Bear. Without his Achilles injury, I feel like Bear would be pushing for the 10-12 range as well and his writeup/upside sounds pretty similar to Eklund. The thing that sucks is that he's most likely out through December/January this year, so he's only getting half a season at most next year. Plus he's a 2006 birthyear so he becomes AHL eligible after next year.

It obviously sucks that their pick slid down 2 spots, but there are a couple of guys that look pretty interesting in the 12-16 range that should all be available for the Penguins. Cootes was another guy who had a great U18 performance, with 6 goals and 12 points in 7 games. Reschny destroyed the WHL playoffs with 9 goals and 25 points in 11 games, and was good at the U18s as well with 5 goals and 8 points in 5 games. Kindel has been touched on as well. There's also guys like Carbonneau who look interesting too.

I'm still hoping that Eklund slides to #11, but even if he doesn't, it seems like they'll have some good options even without him.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think it’s reasonable to think it could happen but not likely enough where I’m confident.

I have it at about 50/50, with me split between Eklund and McQueen for who slides to #11. I think it's unlikely Mrtka and Martin last until #11 and I think it's effectively impossible for anyone else in the top-10 to slide to #11.

I think the most likely outcome is that they have a choice of one of Eklund or McQueen with the rest of the field at #11 and then their choice of a bunch of other guys like Smith, Kindel, Reschny and such at #12. But it doesn't take anything ridiculous for something like both Eklund and Martin are available at #11 and #12 to happen.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I expect O'Brien is ~100% guaranteed gone by #11 and little chance on Martin. Mrtka being a massive RHD seems highly probably to get drafted at least top 12. I'm still skeptical on McQueen being taken that early with his health.

Yeah I think OB is a lock to be a top 10 pick and Martin is basically one too.

Everything we see on McQueen is saying NHL teams view him as a top 5 talent. I think if he has good medical eval he only “slips” to 6-10 range. I think if reports are wishy washy he’s going to go more in the 13-20 range. If they are straight up bad? Who knows how far he’s falling.

If McQueen doesn’t check out well at combine with medical staffs, and teams don’t like the D in this class, think Eklund could easily be gone by 11. In that case I guess we should look Mrtka, Bear, Smith, Kindel.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I think the most likely outcome is that they have a choice of one of Eklund or McQueen at #11

Ive thrown out McQueen as the “f*** it” gambler upside pick… but in reality I think the problem with him is twofold:

- If his back doesn’t check out I don’t want him.

- if his back checks out he’s long gone by #11

 

[The Old Master]

I think trading down would be a good thing to look at, but I also think it's possible that a lot of teams view 7-15 pretty similarly so they wouldn't trade up that much to move up.

and why we should try to move UP. it shouldn't cost a lot, and we get the guy we want.

 

[Andy99]

I think trading down would be a good thing to look at, but I also think it's possible that a lot of teams view 7-15 pretty similarly so they wouldn't trade up that much to move up. I'd want to make sure I pull off someone like Kindel if I'm trading down, and I think you need to be picking above #20 for that to happen. I think the best opportunity for trading down would be if McQueen was still available and a team in the 16-20 range was sold on him and wanted to trade up for him.

In terms of mock draft, it's interesting that so many people are assuming that Martin is definitely going to be gone by the Penguins pick, while he's usually being mocked in the 10-13 range from most sources. He definitely feels like the kind of guy to get overdrafted, but purely in terms of mock drafts, he's not being mocked outside of their range:

-McKenzie: 12th
-Wheeler: 10th
-Pronman: 10th
-Elite Prospects: 18th
-Central Scouting: 11th ranked NA skater

His stock definitely feels like it's rising, but he's being pretty consistently mocked right in their area in the draft. I wouldn't bet on him lasting until #11, but he feels like someone that will probably be going in the #8-#10 range.

Yeah, mock from yesterday has the Pens picking Martin…

NHL Top 16 Mock Draft: Who will Islanders take after surprise lottery win?

With the results of the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery in, Sam Cosentino provides a projected mock draft of the top 16 prospects.

www.sportsnet.ca

But Button has him going to Philly and the Pens taking McQueen…please god no lol…if the Pens pass on Eklund to take him, they’re morons

Craig Button’s Mock Draft: New York Islanders take defenceman Matthew Schaefer at No. 1 | TSN

The New York Islanders will select first overall in the 2025 NHL Draft after winning the draft lottery and TSN Director of Scouting Craig Button has them addressing the blueline, selecting Erie Otters defenceman Matthew Schaefer at No. 1.

www.tsn.ca

 

[Ugene Magic]

I expect O'Brien is ~100% guaranteed gone by #11 and little chance on Martin. Mrtka being a massive RHD seems highly probably to get drafted at least top 12. I'm still skeptical on McQueen being taken that early with his health.

Fishers 64

2025 NHL Draft Rankings: Fisher’s Top 64 Following U18 Worlds

Here's his top 32:

His post earlier yesterday.

Those draft lottery results will really shake up the mocks but as of now, based on the rankings I released today, I'm thinking ...

1) NYI = Misa
2) SJS = Schaefer
3) CHI = Frondell
4) UTH = Hagens
5) NSH = Martone
6) PHI = Desnoyers
7) BOS = Martin
8) SEA = Reschny
9) BUF = Eklund
10) ANA = O'Brien
11) PIT = Mrtka
12) NYR = Aitcheson
13) DET = McQueen
14) CBJ = Hensler
15) VAN = J. Smith
16) MTL (via CGY) = Lakovic

Debate away, what do you like or dislike from that Top 16?

I'm a bit optimistic that Carter Bear is the guy to take. I'm really not into taking a D-man.

 

[The Old Master]

This is a favorable after the lottery draft rankings from Bleacher Report.

Bleacher Report: Post Lottery Draft Rankings


1. Misa
2. Schaefer
3. Martone
4. Hagens
5. McQueen
6. Eklund
7. Smith
8. Bear
9. O'Brien
10. Desnoyers
11. Lakovic
12. Carbonneau
13. Frondell
14. Mrtka
15. Schmidt
16. Martin
17. Hensler
18. Cootes
19. Aitcheson
20. Reid
21. Kindel
22. Fiddler
23. Spence
24. Vansaghi
25. Ravensbergen
26, Kevan
27. Nestrasil
28. Murtagh
29. Zonnon
30. Potter
31. Behm
32. Reschny

sweet!

 

[JackFr]

Martin is for sure gone by our pick.

Here are the 11th, 12th, and 13th overall picks from 2005-2020, because I was curious:

Stars
Anze Kopitar
Ryan McDonagh
Filip Forsberg
Josh Morrissey

Top Line/Pair
Noah Dobson
Nick Suzuki
Matthew Boldy
Ryan Ellis
Seth Jarvis
Cam Fowler
Kevin Fiala
Martin Necas

Solid Contributors
Mark Staal
Bryan Little
Tyler Myers
Calvin De Haan
Max Domi
Gabe Vilardi
Anton Lundell

OK Goalies
Jonathan Bernier
Jack Campbell
Spencer Knight
Yaroslav Askarov

Bottom Six/Pair
Lawson Crouse
Jakub Vrana
Lars Eller
Zach Kassian
Brandon Sutter

Depth
Sven Baertschi
Jiri Tlusty
Denis Gurianov
Oliver Wahlstrom
Ty Dellandrea

Bust
Duncan Siemens
Ryan Murphy
Brandon Gormley
Colten Teubert
Marek Zagrapan
Mikhail Grigorenko
Sam Morin
Brendan Perlini
Jakub Zboril
Logan Brown
Jake Bean
Victor Soderstrom

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think the worst case scenario with the draft is that McQueen's back is a mess and the top-10 goes exactly as the top-10 is currently projected. But even with that, I don't think they're sitting in a bad spot with Smith, Aitcheson, Kindel, Reschny, Carbonneau and Cootes as their choices at #11. With getting the Rangers pick, I'd be planning on Smith at #11 and whichever forward you like best at #12.

I think the best case scenario is that McQueen's back is good (meaning he goes in the top-10) and another guy jumps into the top-10 to push Eklund and one of Frondell, Mrtka or Martin out of the top-10. Frondell had a pretty poor U18 tournament, so I can possibly see him sliding in the draft. That Button mock draft has Lakovic going at #10, so you just need something like that plus McQueen's back looking good for the Penguins to be in a good spot at #11 and #12.

So basically, the worst case scenario is Smith and one of Kindel/Reschny/Bear/Carbonneau while the best case scenario is Eklund and one of Martin/Mrtka/Frondell. More realistically, I think they get Eklund and Smith.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

So 14 stars/top line players (I moved Vilardi and Lundell up).

14 depth long term NHLers

17 bad picks (I moved depth guys down as no one wants that from this pick)

So basically odds are 1/3rd stud, 1/3rd avg NHLer, 1/3 bust

 

[Gurglesons]

I imagine Dubas tries to trade down and get two picks versus picking 11th as has historically been his style.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

imagine Dubas tries to trade down and get two picks versus picking 11th as has historically been his style.

I’m in depending on how the board falls.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I imagine Dubas tries to trade down and get two picks versus picking 11th as has historically been his style.

It largely depends on who is available at #11. If one of Eklund or Martin falls, I don't think he trades down. If it's someone like Smith, I can see him moving down from #11 to like #17 or #18 to gain an extra 2nd rounder.

If they get the Rangers pick, I can see them sticking with one of those picks and moving down with the other. Try to come out of this draft with moving #11/12 for #17 and #41 and drafting at #11/12, #17, #41 and #63 in the first 2 rounds of the draft.

 

[Khelandros]

Have the Pens drafted Misa yet? Asking for a friend.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I like Martin but I’m ok with trading down if he’s on the board. I feel like you could get an extra 1st next year and only drop 8-10 spots and take Kindel (who I think is a comparable, maybe even better prospect?).

Eklund is a tougher sell to me. I have him 5th.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I like Martin but I’m ok with trading down if he’s on the board. I feel like you could get an extra 1st next year and only drop 8-10 spots and take Kindel (who I think is a comparable, maybe even better prospect?).

Eklund is a tougher sell to me. I have him 5th.

If you can get a 2026 1st to trade down from #11 to a later 1st, I'm trading down no matter who is on the board.

Philly offering #24 and #25 for #11 also feels possible, which I'd be super tempted to take but I'm concerned Kindel and Reschny will both be gone by those picks.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

If you can get a 2026 1st to trade down from #11 to a later 1st, I'm trading down no matter who is on the board.

Even one likely to be in the 20s?

 

[Andy99]

If the Pens want to take a risk at #11 on high upside, I’d rather them take Ryabkin than McQueen given the injury situation…assuming the usual suspects are gone…

 

[Empoleon8771]

Even one likely to be in the 20s?

Yeah that's an easy yes for me. The bigger point of hesitation I'd have is how far I'm trading down in 2025 to get that 2026 1st. If I'm still getting Kindel or Reschny with the 2025 1st, I'm taking that offer with no hesitation.

I figure that deal would be something like #11 for #22 and a 2026 1st, with getting Kindel or Reschny at #22. I'd take that without any sort of hesitation, which is why I'm pretty doubtful anyone would actually offer that.

 

[Le Magnifique 66]

Fishers 64

2025 NHL Draft Rankings: Fisher’s Top 64 Following U18 Worlds

Here's his top 32:

If the Rags give us their pick and we could walk out of this draft with any combination of O'Brien, Mrtka, Eklund, Bear and McQueen, I'd be pretty happy considering how last night went and the fact of dropping 2 spots