Prospect Info: Draft 2025 - Waiting for the Draft Lotto

[Ulf5]

Click the first column to sort by date, this is just the first link I found.

Since 1999, around 40% of #2 picks are franchise changing players. At least 7 will be in the HOF.

For #6s, you have Matthew Tkachuk, a pair of low-end 1Cs and 1Ds, and a collection of mediocre to good players, but not difference makers.

My estimate for HOFers by pick from 1999-2019 since it's too early for more recent picks:

1: 11-12
2: 7-8
3: 4 (although Gaborik was a HOF caliber player)
4: 4
5: 1-2
6: 1
7: 1-3
8: 0
9: 0
10: 1
11: 1

When there's just below 3 HHOFers drafted per year, you're looking at almost half of them selected in just the first 4 picks. And a HOF forward is close to a prerequisite to winning a cup.

So what your saying is, pick 11 is due for a HOF.

 

[Lust for Life]

After checking the drafts from 2010 to 2011, yeah, this f***ing sucked.

2010:
#9: Mikael Granlund
#11 Jack Campbell

2011:
#9: Dougie Hamilton
#11 Duncan Siemens

2012:
#9: Jacob Trouba
#11 Filip Forsberg

2013:
#9: Bo Horvat
#11 Samuel Morin

2014:
#9: Nikolaj Ehlers
#11 Kevin Fiala

2015:
#9: Timo Meier
#11: Lawson Crouse

2016:
#9: Mikhail Sergachyov
#11: Logan Brown

2017:
#9: Michael Rasmussen
#11: Gabriel Vilardi

2018:
#9: Vitali Kravtsov
#11: Oliver Wahlstrom

2019:
#9: Trevor Zegras
#11: Victor Söderström

2020:
#9: Marco Rossi
#11: Yaroslav Askarov

2021:
#9: Dylan Guenther
#12: Cole Sillinger (#11 was forfeited)

 

[MetalheadPenguinsFan]

Meh

We’ll just get another vanilla passenger.

Oh goodie!!

 

[Lust for Life]

Based on absolutely nothing but the team he plays for, I think Dubas might try to move up if necessary to grab Martin.

 

[plaidchuck]

Pens gonna pick 26th next year with their own pick? Woah plan the parade!

Also gonna grab the popcorn for this board when the Rangers take the pick this year and next year Sullivan takes the team to the top of the division. Gonna be Defcon 0 in here.

 

[cookthebooks]

cool man yeah imagine the worst case scenario unfolding that would sure be bad huh?

 

[plaidchuck]

In all seriousness though, if you’re a big market team like NYR and want to project that you’ll be a playoff team going forward youd have to forgo next years pick for optics alone right?

 

[Ryder71]

The sentiment on the Rangers board seems to be that they’re keeping the pick. Probably the preferred move for both sides. Dubas, rip it down to the studs and go all in on the 26 and 27 drafts.

Sadly, if this team had that mindset the last couple of weeks of the season they could've gotten a top 5-7 pick THIS year. What a waste of a season. I mean, if you're gonna lose, at least get something good for it. Now, we have to hope for some luck or several teams ahead of us to miss on their pick! Not an enviable position to be in to be sure.

 

[plaidchuck]

Dup

 

[Ugene Magic]

Pens gonna pick 26th next year with their own pick? Woah plan the parade!

Also gonna grab the popcorn for this board when the Rangers take the pick this year and next year Sullivan takes the team to the top of the division. Gonna be Defcon 0 in here.

NHL/Gary threw a frag grenade into the lottery draft.....

 

[Guins71]

Sadly, if this team had that mindset the last couple of weeks of the season they could've gotten a top 5-7 pick THIS year. What a waste of a season. I mean, if you're gonna lose, at least get something good for it. Now, we have to hope for some luck or several teams ahead of us to miss on their pick! Not an enviable position to be in to be sure.

This team has had terrible foresight by the management team for years. It started by not trading Malkin and Letang in 2019. They could have had some great returns and had Crosby surrounded by young talent now similar to the caps. Instead, they keep an aging roster and on top of it trade for another aging defenseman in Karlson who was the complete opposite of the direction they should have been taking. This year they keep Rakell in a sellers market and instead of 1st round pick, top prospect, and probable top 6 in this draft we get Rakell and number 11. Complete roster mismanagement for 5 plus years

 

[Empoleon8771]

Lol of course the guy calling other people morons is a “they should have traded Malkin” poster.

 

[Ryder71]

This team has had terrible foresight by the management team for years. It started by not trading Malkin and Letang in 2019. They could have had some great returns and had Crosby surrounded by young talent now similar to the caps. Instead, they keep an aging roster and on top of it trade for another aging defenseman in Karlson who was the complete opposite of the direction they should have been taking. This year they keep Rakell in a sellers market and instead of 1st round pick, top prospect, and probable top 6 in this draft we get Rakell and number 11. Complete roster mismanagement for 5 plus years

Very inefficient manner by which they are conducting their business no question. 100% agree!

 

[pistolpete11]

Whatever. Getting even pick #11 is a bit of a head start from where I thought they'd be with Sid still here. Our days of picking in the top 5 are coming. Once Sid is gone, this team is going to suck and McGroarty, Koivunen, pick #9 or 11, etc. aren't going to prevent that. A seamless transition from Sid and Geno to the next core would have been sweet, but wishful thinking.

 

[chethejet]

Pens are building the farm system and depth. It will take years here after a decade of not adding young talent. But the Pens are in far better shape here and adding talent and Dubas will be active here to continue this path. So see what happens but at least there are younger talents to develop that begins the transition here. Koivenen, McGroarty, Broz, Brunicke, Ponomarev, for starters. With Novak, Tomasino, St Ivany, Timmons Dubas at least can have a roster of hungry players who can improve with playing time and an actual coach who plays to their strengths.

 

[deakka]

If anything I feel that us doping further 2 spots will make it more likely we trade the pick for help now, but a younger player ofc. Like Benson from buffalo for example.

 

[The Old Master]

My predictions:
3. There will be endless complaining about this pick for years.

only if he busts.

 

[The Old Master]

So what your saying is, pick 11 is due for a HOF.

our luck needs to even out somewhere. having the steal of the draft would do nicely.

 

[Freeptop]

only if he busts.

Considering there’s an entire thread complaining about Rust, a former third round pick who turned into a 25+ goal scorer and contributer to two Cup wins, I think this board has proven that’s not a prerequisite for complaining.
I sometimes wonder if there are people who are still mad that Shero drafted Rust and Kuhnhackl instead of Pulkkinen

 

[eXile3]

After checking the drafts from 2010 to 2011, yeah, this f***ing sucked.

2010:
#9: Mikael Granlund
#11 Jack Campbell

2011:
#9: Dougie Hamilton
#11 Duncan Siemens

2012:
#9: Jacob Trouba
#11 Filip Forsberg

2013:
#9: Bo Horvat
#11 Samuel Morin

2014:
#9: Nikolaj Ehlers
#11 Kevin Fiala

2015:
#9: Timo Meier
#11: Lawson Crouse

2016:
#9: Mikhail Sergachyov
#11: Logan Brown

2017:
#9: Michael Rasmussen
#11: Gabriel Vilardi

2018:
#9: Vitali Kravtsov
#11: Oliver Wahlstrom

2019:
#9: Trevor Zegras
#11: Victor Söderström

2020:
#9: Marco Rossi
#11: Yaroslav Askarov

2021:
#9: Dylan Guenther
#12: Cole Sillinger (#11 was forfeited)

Yeah depending on who falls we should look at trading down.

We’ll be lucky to get a NHL player out of it so might as well just aggregate picks.

 

[Ugene Magic]

This is a favorable after the lottery draft rankings from Bleacher Report.

Bleacher Report: Post Lottery Draft Rankings


1. Misa
2. Schaefer
3. Martone
4. Hagens
5. McQueen
6. Eklund
7. Smith
8. Bear
9. O'Brien
10. Desnoyers
11. Lakovic
12. Carbonneau
13. Frondell
14. Mrtka
15. Schmidt
16. Martin
17. Hensler
18. Cootes
19. Aitcheson
20. Reid
21. Kindel
22. Fiddler
23. Spence
24. Vansaghi
25. Ravensbergen
26, Kevan
27. Nestrasil
28. Murtagh
29. Zonnon
30. Potter
31. Behm
32. Reschny

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Pronman said this about a stupid mock the writers for each team did

“The second most interesting takeaway is Victor Eklund, who most scouts consider a top 10 player in the draft, falling to 13 to Detroit. Despite this discrepancy, quite a few people in the league view this as realistic. Eklund has been beat up on calls I’ve had with people around the league. “He’s a great player, but wingers always fall, especially small wings,” said an NHL executive. This was evidenced as our mock team GMs flocked to centers and defensemen in the top 12. That said, if you’re an Eklund believer, you are pointing to Seth Jarvis and saying he could be that type of player.”

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think trading down would be a good thing to look at, but I also think it's possible that a lot of teams view 7-15 pretty similarly so they wouldn't trade up that much to move up. I'd want to make sure I pull off someone like Kindel if I'm trading down, and I think you need to be picking above #20 for that to happen. I think the best opportunity for trading down would be if McQueen was still available and a team in the 16-20 range was sold on him and wanted to trade up for him.

In terms of mock draft, it's interesting that so many people are assuming that Martin is definitely going to be gone by the Penguins pick, while he's usually being mocked in the 10-13 range from most sources. He definitely feels like the kind of guy to get overdrafted, but purely in terms of mock drafts, he's not being mocked outside of their range:

-McKenzie: 12th
-Wheeler: 10th
-Pronman: 10th
-Elite Prospects: 18th
-Central Scouting: 11th ranked NA skater

His stock definitely feels like it's rising, but he's being pretty consistently mocked right in their area in the draft. I wouldn't bet on him lasting until #11, but he feels like someone that will probably be going in the #8-#10 range.

 

[Jared Grayden]

Pronman said this about a stupid mock the writers for each team did

“The second most interesting takeaway is Victor Eklund, who most scouts consider a top 10 player in the draft, falling to 13 to Detroit. Despite this discrepancy, quite a few people in the league view this as realistic. Eklund has been beat up on calls I’ve had with people around the league. “He’s a great player, but wingers always fall, especially small wings,” said an NHL executive. This was evidenced as our mock team GMs flocked to centers and defensemen in the top 12. That said, if you’re an Eklund believer, you are pointing to Seth Jarvis and saying he could be that type of player.”

So exactly what we have been speculating about on here.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Pronman said this about a stupid mock the writers for each team did

“The second most interesting takeaway is Victor Eklund, who most scouts consider a top 10 player in the draft, falling to 13 to Detroit. Despite this discrepancy, quite a few people in the league view this as realistic. Eklund has been beat up on calls I’ve had with people around the league. “He’s a great player, but wingers always fall, especially small wings,” said an NHL executive. This was evidenced as our mock team GMs flocked to centers and defensemen in the top 12. That said, if you’re an Eklund believer, you are pointing to Seth Jarvis and saying he could be that type of player.”

I'm pretty confident Eklund slides to the Penguins pick. It's not even about Eklund, it's that the draft in the 8-12 range has a lot of bigger and more physical defensemen and centers. I can't realistically see an undersized skilled Euro winger going ahead of someone like Mrtka or McQueen. Hell, I feel like Aitcheson may go before him as well.

If they get the Rangers pick, my expectation is something like Eklund at #11 and Smith at #12 as who they end up taking.