Prospect Info: Draft 2025 - Waiting for the Draft Lotto

[Ugene Magic]

if the pens wouldve won that spot though it wouldve altered the space time continuum to not guarantee the same lottery ball getting drawn

Um... there are 4-balls drawn for both lottery spots.

The Pens get 50 4-digit combinations which equals to 200 balls x2 drawings.

Down from...

5th: 85 4-digits combinations = 340 4-digit combinations
6th: 75 4-digits combinations = 300 4-digit combinations

Which ball alters the space time continuum?

 

[lokomotiv15]

I agree on the points/U18 performance. Like could care less.

Except what made me warm up was the skating was way, way better than what I felt like I saw in on grainy OHL tape. I went back and watched some shift-by-shift and feel like I was too hard on it. Since that was my only real issue with him I gotta move him up.

Still- I do not think he’s that “safe” of a prospect. I think people are conflating projectable with safe. I think in the top 10- he’s high risk high reward tbh. Imo you do that because I think there’s serious upside to be the type of player everyone wants but you really can’t get unless you draft them. He’s skilled, was the best player on his OHL team as a DY, kills people, has size, creativity. Cannon shot although he’s not very advanced in how he gets it off. I think he could not develop very much and be like a 4th liner, bottom 6er who’s not big or fast enough to play the physical game he does in junior. Or he could be a 60 point guy who just kills people.

I’m still taking Eklund over him. I tend to agree he’s a 12-15 prospect the problem is… I feel like everyone not in my personal top 6 feels like a 12-15 prospect lol.

100% he was noticeably better in just about every way when it came to skating than what I saw in Nov/Dec. High end speed, explosiveness, fluidity, all definitely ticked up. I unfortunately didn't catch any of the Soo in the play-offs, would have liked to watch him play in that environment against a big, heavy, skilled Windsor team.

And ditto, my problem is also that I cant find anyone I really like to fill the 8-13 spots that wouldn't start to feel like reaching.

 

[The Old Master]

San Jose 1, Pittsburgh 2, Chicago 3, Philly 4, Nashville 5

Book it.

that would work!

 

[The Old Master]

Um... there are 4-balls drawn for both lottery spots.

The Pens get 50 4-digit combinations which equals to 200 balls x2 drawings.

Down from...

5th: 85 4-digits combinations = 340 4-digit combinations
6th: 75 4-digits combinations = 300 4-digit combinations

Which ball alters the space time continuum?

you know, that one.

 

[Jesse]

Have you heard anything either way to suggest whether the Rangers are going to give up that pick?

No, in fact, I'd argue after a weekend of doing appearances on NY radio and podcasts talking about Mike Sullivan and soliciting opinions from Rangers writers/media on the draft pick, I am even more confused about what's going to happen. I don't think I got the same answer from a single person. No one has any idea.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

100% he was noticeably better in just about every way when it came to skating than what I saw in Nov/Dec. High end speed, explosiveness, fluidity, all definitely ticked up. I unfortunately didn't catch any of the Soo in the play-offs, would have liked to watch him play in that environment against a big, heavy, skilled Windsor team.

And ditto, my problem is also that I cant find anyone I really like to fill the 8-13 spots that wouldn't start to feel like reaching.

Yeah exactly.

As of today (I’m sure someone will prove me wrong 10 years from now) I’m not sure that any of these players are so talented where they just project to be top flight NHLers no matter how the next 2-3 seasons go.

So I think once you get to that range we are talking about where everyone kinda feels like a reach… development matters more than who you pick today. Which comes down to the player’s desire/mental makeup and your staffs plan for them.

 

[Ugene Magic]

you know, that one.

Is that the 3rd from the left or the 2nd from the right?

 

[Jesse]

Yeah exactly.

As of today (I’m sure someone will prove me wrong 10 years from now) I’m not sure that any of these players are so talented where they just project to be top flight NHLers no matter how the next 2-3 seasons go.

So I think once you get to that range we are talking about where everyone kinda feels like a reach… development matters more than who you pick today. Which comes down to the player’s desire/mental makeup and your staffs plan for them.

Someone told me this draft was all mashed potatoes prepared different ways.

Pick 7 is mashed potatoes and gravy
Pick 8 is mashed potatoes, but made with butter and sour cream
Pick 9 is mashed potatoes, but chunkier and less smooth
Pick 10 is mashed potatoes, but with garlic and green onion in it

You might find something you really like in there that is specific to your taste, but you're getting mashed potatoes just like everyone else is.

 

[lokomotiv15]

I'm curious, what are your thoughts on him sticking at center in the long run? It seems like he has no issues sticking at center now, but his skillset may be more suited as a puck hound winger like Kunitz.

Agreed, I think he does everything well enough to be a great center at the Junior level.

I just have a hard time finding many comparable players that have made it and stuck playing the way he does (Bennett?), and a lot more that have become career AHL'ers. I also feel like if he wants to chase hits and keep up his physicality/ hounding forecheck game, that his game would definitely translate better to the wing. I don't know if he could play the brand/type of game he does at the next level without sacrificing some of the intangible parts of his game that make his "top-15 player" package.

Stick him with a Hossa type winger, then sure, but those don't grow on trees... or anywhere really...

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Someone told me this draft was all mashed potatoes prepared different ways.

Pick 7 is mashed potatoes and gravy
Pick 8 is mashed potatoes, but made with butter and sour cream
Pick 9 is mashed potatoes, but chunkier and less smooth
Pick 10 is mashed potatoes, but with garlic and green onion in it

You might find something you really like in there that is specific to your taste, but you're getting mashed potatoes just like everyone else is.

Hahaha I think that is very apt.

And personally I think that’s why we are gonna see one of or maybe both of McQueen & Mrtka go very high. Someone is just gonna be like “f*** it this dude could be insane 5 years from now and the rest of these players bore me”.

So mystery box gonna beat mashed potatoes for a team or two. And they could be right in that.

Hopefully that means Eklund (or maybe even the pipe dream of Hagens) gets to us.

 

[Ulf5]

you know, that one.

Kessel's?

 

[The Old Master]

Yeah exactly.

As of today (I’m sure someone will prove me wrong 10 years from now) I’m not sure that any of these players are so talented where they just project to be top flight NHLers no matter how the next 2-3 seasons go.

So I think once you get to that range we are talking about where everyone kinda feels like a reach… development matters more than who you pick today. Which comes down to the player’s desire/mental makeup and your staffs plan for them.

you know we are going to pick a defenseman just to tick off everyone on this board.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Yeah I really get the impression that guys in the 7-15 range can go in any order and it not be remotely surprising. I've seen a lot of people suggest that Martin feels like a Verbeek pick at #8 for the Ducks, while I feel like Mrtka to Buffalo makes a boatload of sense based on the rest of their prospect pool and team. I don't think there is a notable upside difference between any of these guys either, so it's largely a preference for what teams like or what they're looking for.

 

[Empoleon8771]

you know we are going to pick a defenseman just to tick off everyone on this board.

I honestly wouldn't care. Both Smith and Mrtka look like good prospects as well.

McQueen would be the only guy I'd have issues with taking, and that's not about his ability but about his health. Anyone else would be a legitimate pick, unless they go way off the board.

 

[Ulf5]

San Jose 1, Pittsburgh 2, Chicago 3, Philly 4, Nashville 5

Book it.

So you're saying we win the lottery, trade 1 OA for 2 OA, 2027 1st, plus plus?

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I just think Eklund combines a nice floor with upside. If he doesn’t develop much more and he is what he is right now— he still has a good chance to be Seth Jarvis lite.

If really he fills out and adds another level of lower body strength and therefore more explosiveness and agility on top of already good skating… he could be a star.

The answer likely lies in the middle. And he’s small and not a C. So I can understand why he’s 9th and not 5th (where I have him). But for a team like us where we gotta get something from this pick (vs Buffalo or Anaheim) it’s just too logical to go with Eklund for me vs a guy like O’Brien.

 

[eXile3]

I’ve watched enough NFL and NHL drafts to know not to get invested in a certain prospect. Not even the experts know how they will turn out 3-4 years from now.

 

[SEALBound]

Today is the day boys! Think positive! Best case for me is 2OV to get Misa. That's the gods answering my prayers. That said, I don't know what's more stressful, watching the draft and picking at #9 or screaming at the top of my lungs that if they get 2OV they need to take Misa. Call it PTSD from the 2012 draft. I'm might become a dark side blackhole (worse than any pixiesfan you've ever met) if I heard "and with the 2nd overall pick, the Penguins are super excited to select Roger McQueen"

Yeah I really get the impression that guys in the 7-15 range can go in any order and it not be remotely surprising. I've seen a lot of people suggest that Martin feels like a Verbeek pick at #8 for the Ducks, while I feel like Mrtka to Buffalo makes a boatload of sense based on the rest of their prospect pool and team. I don't think there is a notable upside difference between any of these guys either, so it's largely a preference for what teams like or what they're looking for.

Martin's strong finish in the last bit of meaningful games will surely raise his draft attention. I agree that after 5/6, it will be a crapshoot reminisc of the 2006 2nd-5th ov draft. I still think teams may go with organizational needs at that point which helps us out. We just have to hope guys like McQueen and Mrtka mean more to teams before us to get guys to drop. At 9/11, getting JOB and Martin would be a massive win for us.

I just think Eklund combines a nice floor with upside. If he doesn’t develop much more and he is what he is right now— he still has a good chance to be Seth Jarvis lite.

If really he fills out and adds another level of lower body strength and therefore more explosiveness and agility on top of already good skating… he could be a star.

The answer likely lies in the middle. And he’s small and not a C. So I can understand why he’s 9th and not 5th (where I have him). But for a team like us where we gotta get something from this pick (vs Buffalo or Anaheim) it’s just too logical to go with Eklund for me vs a guy like O’Brien.

Yeah, I mean having a Seth Jarvis would be fantastic and even if it's half-potential reached, he's like going to be a solid top 6 forward. We just might have to start pushing one of McG, Koivunen, or Eklund to RW .

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Yeah, I mean having a Seth Jarvis would be fantastic and even if it's half-potential reached, he's like going to be a solid top 6 forward.

I think he’s probably the safest prospect in the draft outside of the top 4 guys but I do not think he’s a sure thing to be a top 6 forward.

Def a world where he’s a more consistent Hinostroza and just like a tryhard small bottom 6er. Or complete bust.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think I'm warming up to taking Martin over Eklund at this point, mostly driven by the thought that Martin at his best case scenario ends up a more impactful player than Eklund at his best case scenario. I think at their absolute best case scenario, Eklund becomes a similar player to Nylander while Martin becomes a similar player to Mike Richards. I think the all-around impact Martin could have if he sticks at center and hits that best case scenario is greater than Eklund at his best case scenario.

The more realistic projections for these guys are like Barbashev for Martin and Jarvis for Eklund, which I think gives an advantage to Eklund but nothing too ridiculous. But the slim chance that Martin sticks at center and puts it all together makes me feel like the absolute best outcome is higher with Martin than it is with Eklund.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

wait forget about prospect discussion (idc about Martin over Eklund- fair)

feel like no way I take Mike Richards over William Nylander right?

 

[cookthebooks]

what are the odds whoever wins the lottery gifts the pens the pick to commemorate the courage displayed by dubas in dumping sully?

 

[SEALBound]

I think he’s probably the safest prospect in the draft outside of the top 4 guys but I do not think he’s a sure thing to be a top 6 forward.

Def a world where he’s a more consistent Hinostroza and just like a tryhard small bottom 6er. Or complete bust.

I did some digging on who others are comparing him to and found: His brother William, Jesper Bratt, Stankoven, and Seth Jarvis. Which, given other scouting reports would be fair comparisons. Certainly no harm in adding that to the fold.

wait forget about prospect discussion (idc about Martin over Eklund- fair)

feel like no way I take Mike Richards over William Nylander right?

Mike Richards did A LOT for the Kings in those two cup runs, especially the first one. If we like the comparison to Sam Bennett, I guess we can look at Bennett vs Nylander in the upcoming series and see who provides their team more.

I think where I am is: If we get the additional 1st, go ahead and take Eklund because we can likely get Martin or JOB with the other 1st. If we only have the one 1st, take the center.

Either way, I try to trade Rakell and EK for 2026 1sts. If by some miracle we pull that off and the NYR picks goes to 26, we could be looking at a four pick first round in a strong draft. Then we can mix and match all we want. I would also guess that we could get an Eklund-level wing in that draft if we miss here.

 

[Empoleon8771]

wait forget about prospect discussion (idc about Martin over Eklund- fair)

feel like no way I take Mike Richards over William Nylander right?

Richards was a coke addict to washed out pretty early due to that, but before that, he peaked at 30 goals and 80 points and had about a 60 point pace from 2006-2014 while regularly getting Selke votes.

I wouldn’t blame you for taking Nylander over Richards but I think it’s reasonable to take Richards over Nylander.

 

[Turin]

wait forget about prospect discussion (idc about Martin over Eklund- fair)

feel like no way I take Mike Richards over William Nylander right?

I would easily take Mike Richards over William Nylander if the Mike Richard’s doesn’t come with a coke habit