Prospect Info: Draft 2025 - Waiting for the Draft Lotto

[SEALBound]

I'm not as scared about Bear's injury, especially if the team takes O'Brien with #9.

This team needs centers badly, but Carter is also a good LW if not a center at worst. Both come with some size and will need to grow into their frames.

I'm not reaching that far for Martin/Kindel. That has Pouliot vibes.

As per Bobby Mac, apparently scouts aren't that down on Bear with his injury either. I mean, EK had his Achilles cut and he came back fine. Granted I would say he wasn't as good as he was pre-cut but still NHL caliber so Bear might be okay. With how important it is for us to do well with this pick (these picks), I am really shying away from injury history. That's why I'm a fairly hard no on McQueen. I think there are comparable players to take at those slots that don't have the injury history. Like Eklund could easily be available, Kindel or Spence will be there, you can even look at Lakovic or Carbonneau.

I don't think Martin is a stretch for the NYR pick. I do have him as the best center available at that pick but I am also breaking with tradition and suggesting that BPA for us is not BPA...it's BCA - Best Center Available. Smith, Mrkta, Bear may be ranked higher and may be better overall prospects but Martin is a center and boy do we need centers. Plus, I really like Martin's play style. I've come appreciate his physical game more over the last couple of weeks. Lord knows we could use a bit more physicality. And at the end of the day, I'm not overly convinced the overall careers of everyone in that 10-20 range are going to be all that different.

 

[The Old Master]

I go back and forth. I was worried about his heaviness on his feet and skating but man it looks completely fine if not good at the U18. Has really warmed me up.

I will say I love the way he f***ing kills people. Just absolutely demoralizing body checks. So that may be (totally is) clouding my judgement. I love a truly physical power forward. There’s only like 5 of em left.

Will say this about tools— He does have good hands (the most completed dekes in the OHL this year) and a very heavy shot imo. @lokomotiv15 has fairly criticized his efficiency in skill chaining though.

I would be fine with him at 9 given lack of real alternatives for me to pound the table for. I do think the floor is pretty low. But he’s got upside IMO.

it's a lot easier to go around someone that's bracing themselves from getting run over.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Who's the NHL comparable to Martin? Bennett? He was a complete bust for CGY and took years to develop into more than a depth player. And I don't even view him as a power forward now either. I don't understand the hype for Martin from the U-18s except it must be for his physicality. Cam Robinson just said this morning how it is the first U-18s where nobody in the current draft class looks like a top 10 pick. Stenberg has been the most dominant forward and Cootes has been better than Martin so not sure why Martin is getting so much attention.

1) Was obvious for years Bennett would breakout with better usage. He was an animal in the playoffs as a Flame. I also would not act like him breaking out at 24 and becoming a really unique 2C at 25 is wild or makes him a poor pick. No offense but horrible take if you don’t want a unique skillset top 6 playoff performing center on a team that is making runs every year at 9OA.

2) comp for playstyle? None are perfect. Bennett, Backes, someone said Richards above. Prospect board mentioned Neighbors? I can see Bennett take if he sticks at C. Maybe he looks like Oshie a little as a W? But more physical. Maybe like Hayton but killing dudes?

I don’t love comps but IMO his upside is really physical presence, goal scorer who can play on your top 2 lines with stars. I think a middle outcome is 20-20 middle 6er you love having come playoff time, like a Gourde type role.

3) Stenberg looks insane but is a top 3 pick prob next year. Martin looks way better than Cootes so don’t agree at all.

 

[Jared Grayden]

I am really shying away from injury history. That's why I'm a fairly hard no on McQueen. I think there are comparable players to take at those slots that don't have the injury history.

Every single person that speaks to NHL scouts has said McQueen's health is a major concern to NHL teams. Wheeler, Robinson, Scouching, Allen, now today McKenzie. I just can't see how teams would willingly take him top 10. I hope someone does ahead of PIT, but he has Lindstrom 2.0 all over it.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I will say I love the way he f***ing kills people. Just absolutely demoralizing body checks. So that may be (totally is) clouding my judgement. I love a truly physical power forward. There’s only like 5 of em left.

I am also with this, as I love that skill set.

 

[SEALBound]

Who's the NHL comparable to Martin? Bennett? He was a complete bust for CGY and took years to develop into more than a depth player. And I don't even view him as a power forward now either. I don't understand the hype for Martin from the U-18s except it must be for his physicality. Cam Robinson just said this morning how it is the first U-18s where nobody in the current draft class looks like a top 10 pick. Stenberg has been the most dominant forward and Cootes has been better than Martin so not sure why Martin is getting so much attention.

Actually, I do think Bennett is a decent comp for Martin in terms of play style and what ultra-potential reached might look like (looking at Bennett's current impacts). Martin doesn't play a very flashy game, though. He's not a super agile skater, he's not a stick handling magician, while his shot is decent, it's not Laine or Ovi, he's not a speedster. There's just no one particular skill set that truly stands out so it's easy to "miss" him on that front when you are looking for differentiating factors in a draft. But at the same time, I keep a couple of things in mind: 1. World Juniors are a collection of the best junior players so you're regularly comparing best on best so sometimes it's harder to see those stand-out attributes. Think about 4Nations - while the skill level was uber high, a guy like Marner looked like an average player. 2. It speaks to the relative weakness of the draft class which has been mentioned several times. Martin might be ranked "high" and not look great because...there's just not that many better players ahead of him.

I don't think we are getting a 1C out of this draft but I'd love to get a 2C and 3C which if we get JOB and Martin, that's what we could potentially forecast.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Every single person that speaks to NHL scouts has said McQueen's health is a major concern to NHL teams. Wheeler, Robinson, Scouching, Allen, now today McKenzie. I just can't see how teams would willingly take him top 10. I hope someone does ahead of PIT, but he has Lindstrom 2.0 all over it.

Lindstrom didn’t die people. He could still work out. Vilardi worked out great. McQueen may have to retire or he may be good.

McKenzie literally wrote what I’ve been saying - no one knows yet and needs to get their doctor in with him. Top 10 pick of the team doc okays it. If not - he’s gonna drop, probably a lot.

I like Scouch but it was so weird he’s like Wikipedia-ing what he heard McQueen’s injury may be.

But my point is teams will take him top 10 if the medicals clear. And idk why anyone would argue with a doctor who has the actual info vs some dude from their couch/blog

 

[Jared Grayden]

Lindstrom didn’t die people. He could still work out. Vilardi worked out great. McQueen may have to retire or he may be good.

Time frames matter to NHL orgs. If a player takes until age 24+ and their second NHL org. to work out that is not "great." At least not to the NHL org. that invested into them originally.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Time frames matter to NHL orgs. If a player takes until age 24+ and their second NHL org. to work out that is not "great." At least not to the NHL org. that invested into them originally.

First off he was a solid player at age 21. Injuries hit again. But established himself at 23. Not 24+ But dude. Your expectations for an 9th, 10th, 11th pick are legit crazy. Most good players in the league aren’t studs at 19. It takes like 4-5-6 years for talented prospects to establish themselves. Look at literally every roster player on the Pens sans Crosby and Malkin and EK. And it’s not a bad thing either. Leads to some great contracts for those home grown players. You can’t just say Bennett and Vilardi are busts because they weren’t stars as teenagers.

Second. From an actual asset management perspective it worked great for LA. Guy became the centerpiece of the PLD deal (which obviously didn’t go well on the ice). But they landed (perceived at the time) a 1C/2C hybrid type with Vilardi.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Yeah, I feel like they will try and move the #11 to make an upgrade and then go all in for next year. Would be pretty cool if Sullivan immediately asks Drury to acquire Rust or Rakell and the Pens get the Rags picks in 25 and 26

The issue is that the Rangers have effectively no cap space and can’t really do that. They don’t have any big money deals that they can move unless they move Lafreniere.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Also if you think Martin’s upside is a Sam Bennett type of player, you’d be insane to pass on him. He’s the exact kind of heart and soul player every contender wants in their middle-6. Bringing up Bennett as a pro comparable for Martin makes me significantly more inclined to want to take him.

 

[Ugene Magic]

Bennett took 7 years to mold into the player he is. 7....

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Also if you think Martin’s upside is a Sam Bennett type of player, you’d be insane to pass on him. He’s the exact kind of heart and soul player every contender wants in their middle-6. Bringing up Bennett as a pro comparable for Martin makes me significantly more inclined to want to take him.

Nah bro Bennett was underutilized until he was 24 and got traded. It’s totally logical and totally not arbitrary that now applies to Martin or any Bennett comparable in the draft now.

 

[Jared Grayden]

First off he was a solid player at age 21. Injuries hit again. But established himself at 23. Not 24+ But dude. Your expectations for an 9th, 10th, 11th pick are legit crazy. Most good players in the league aren’t studs at 19. It takes like 4-5-6 years for talented prospects to establish themselves. Look at literally every roster player on the Pens sans Crosby and Malkin and EK. And it’s not a bad thing either. Leads to some great contracts for those home grown players. You can’t just say Bennett and Vilardi are busts because they weren’t stars as teenagers.

Second. From an actual asset management perspective it worked great for LA. Guy became the centerpiece of the PLD deal (which obviously didn’t go well on the ice). But they landed (perceived at the time) a 1C/2C hybrid type with Vilardi.

Bennett was 4th overall. He was absolutely a bust for Calgary. Vilardi I agree is debatable, though plenty of Kings fans were happy he was traded away because of the health issues. Reality is most 1st round picks are underwhelming unless you're in a very strong draft year like 2003 or 2015. Because drafting is very difficult. All the more reason to draft as early (tank) and often (sell) as possible to ensure success.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Bennett was 4th overall. He was absolutely a bust for Calgary. Vilardi I agree is debatable, though plenty of Kings fans were happy he was traded away because of the health issues. Reality is most 1st round picks are underwhelming unless you're in a very strong draft year like 2003 or 2015. Because drafting is very difficult. All the more reason to draft as early (tank) and often (sell) as possible to ensure success.

which is calgarys fault for how they used him… or their fault for cutting bait too early. Doesn’t mean they picked the wrong talent.

Regardless— How tf does any of this apply to drafting someone who could stylistically play like Bennett. Makes zero sense to me why any one players development path applies to McQueen, Martin, Buzz Lightyear.

 

[Jared Grayden]

which is calgarys fault for how they used him… or their fault for cutting bait too early. Doesn’t mean they picked the wrong talent.

Regardless— How tf does any of this apply to drafting someone who could stylistically play like Bennett. Makes zero sense to me why any one players development path applies to McQueen, Martin, Buzz Lightyear.

Because if a player's profile doesn't project favorably with current NHLers, there's likely a reason for it. In his case, I would say that his reliance on physicality won't project from juniors to the NHL because his physical tools are so ordinary. And I wouldn't use an 11th overall on a player like that. I'd rather a higher risk/reward prospect, similar to our discussions about O'Brien. And unlike McQueen, I do worry that Clark/Dubas will carry a strong bias on Martin due to the Soo connection. So hopefully some GM takes him before Dubas can.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think people need to adjust their expectations for the timeframe for any prospect they're going to take this year and going forward. Most 1st rounders take 5 years or more to actually hit their upside. I think Broberg is a really good example of this, he was taken at #8 overall in 2019 and wasn't able to really establish himself as a NHLer in Edmonton through 2023-2024. Then in his draft+6 year, suddenly everything clicked together for him as a 23 year old and he blossomed into a top-4 defenseman. How he did it was a bit unusual, most players go from "3rd pair to top-4" rather than "healthy scratch/AHLer to top-4 D", but it wasn't until his draft+6 season that he actually hit his upside.

Using that same draft, McMichael is a good example of a forward who took a long time. He exploded into a 25 goal, 60 point top-6 center this year, but he struggled to stick in the NHL through 2022-2023 and was only okay in 2023-2024. He's another guy that took until his draft+6 year to actually pan out and hit his upside. Holmstrom was picked right behind him and he also took until this year to pan out as a top-6 forward.

It's not impossible to get someone who can have a significant NHL impact as soon as their draft+3 year, this draft had Boldy, Caulfield and Zegras (although he has fallen off a bit) who did exactly that. But most players take longer. Look at McGroarty, he'll be in his draft+4 year next year and I bet he won't be firmly established as a top-6 forward until probably his draft+5 year. That's the timeline that should be expected for these players, that they end up top-6 F or top-4 D caliber by their draft+5 years. For anyone being taken this year, that's 2029-2030.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

Based on previous info I gathered: the majority of forwards are what they are by 22, defenders by 23, and goalies are weird. As always, there's wiggle room/outliers so bump that up by a year and a half for the "max" age.

 

[Malkinstheman]

Also if you think Martin’s upside is a Sam Bennett type of player, you’d be insane to pass on him. He’s the exact kind of heart and soul player every contender wants in their middle-6. Bringing up Bennett as a pro comparable for Martin makes me significantly more inclined to want to take him.

I could see them try and move Kreider's 6.5m. Just like Trouba, some team will consider him positive value rather than a dump. Sullivan might want to coach him first though, so in that case they're pretty screwed cap wise

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Yeah like I said most good picks in our range are gonna need 4-6 years to establish themselves in the league. By establish I mean become a regular and progress to being a 3rd liner, middle 6er middle pair, etc and so on. Not just play games.

Because if a player's profile doesn't project favorably with current NHLers, there's likely a reason for it. In his case, I would say that his reliance on physicality won't project from juniors to the NHL because his physical tools are so ordinary. And I wouldn't use an 11th overall on a player like that. I'd rather a higher risk/reward prospect, similar to our discussions about O'Brien. And unlike McQueen, I do worry that Clark/Dubas will carry a strong bias on Martin due to the Soo connection. So hopefully some GM takes him before Dubas can.

did you read my post about his tools being good?

I’m honestly confused how the Soo connection is bad either. Good intel

 

[Empoleon8771]

Based on previous info I gathered: the majority of forwards are what they are by 22, defenders by 23, and goalies are weird. As always, there's wiggle room/outliers so bump that up by a year and a half for the "max" age.

Are you referring to 1st rounders or forwards in general here? 1st rounders I agree, but that seems young for forwards in general.

For a high round pick (so 1st or 2nd), I think the expected progression should be:

Year 1: juniors/college/Europe
Year 2: juniors/college/Europe
Year 3: AHL/college/Europe
Year 4: NHL regular starting in a depth role (a 3rd liner or a bottom pair D)
Year 5: NHL regular at their upside (a top-6 forward or top-4 D)

I think this would put players as “they are what they are” in year 5, which most would be 23 at that point. For later round picks, basically just add another AHL year after year 3.

 

[Jared Grayden]

did you read my post about his tools being good?

I’m honestly confused how the Soo connection is bad either. Good intel

Yes and we disagree about his upside so it's irrelevant to discuss further. Undoubtedly both of us will be unequivocally wrong on many prospects just like every single person.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Yes and we disagree about his upside so it's irrelevant to discuss further. Undoubtedly both of us will be unequivocally wrong on many prospects just like every single person.

All I’ve ever known is being wrong

 

[Randy Butternubs]

Are you referring to 1st rounders or forwards in general here? 1st rounders I agree, but that seems young for forwards in general.

For a high round pick (so 1st or 2nd), I think the expected progression should be:

Year 1: juniors/college/Europe
Year 2: juniors/college/Europe
Year 3: AHL/college/Europe
Year 4: NHL regular starting in a depth role (a 3rd liner or a bottom pair D)
Year 5: NHL regular at their upside (a top-6 forward or top-4 D)

I think this would put players as “they are what they are” in year 5, which most would be 23 at that point. For later round picks, basically just add another AHL year after year 3.

All forwards (and defenders). Though the higher draft picks tend to be "done" earlier.

 

[Gurglesons]

Because if a player's profile doesn't project favorably with current NHLers, there's likely a reason for it. In his case, I would say that his reliance on physicality won't project from juniors to the NHL because his physical tools are so ordinary. And I wouldn't use an 11th overall on a player like that. I'd rather a higher risk/reward prospect, similar to our discussions about O'Brien. And unlike McQueen, I do worry that Clark/Dubas will carry a strong bias on Martin due to the Soo connection. So hopefully some GM takes him before Dubas can.

If a player like Martin hits he’s a huge reward.