Prospect Info: Draft 2025 - Waiting for the Draft Lotto

[CheckingLineCenter]

Unfair as it may be, I can't help but compare prospects to current NHLers when they were prospects. Desnoyers and O'Brien look like Kotikaniemi and Glass doppelgangers to me. Smith reminds me a lot of Broberg as many have said. I worry on Martin, Eklund, Frondell all end up being nothing special depth forwards. I just find this draft appears to have a lot of high floor/low ceiling prospects.

I agree.

I think Martin doesn’t have traditional high “upside” in that he could be a 80 point player. If you get a guy that can flirt with 30 goals every year and is one of the more physical Fs in the league… it’s so unique that I’d call it a pretty high upside.

It’s kind of the same with Mrtka. Prob only a 30 point guy but if he can be a 6’6 stopper 2D that can move the puck himself? That’s high upside IMO even if it’s not materializing as point production.

Upside is absolutely what I worry about with Eklund. But is his upside worse than the alternatives? Idk. I think there is a world where he can become a big time scorer- he has the hard skill. But I do think if hes only a 45-55 pt guy he does a lot to help you win. Puck carrying/entries, winning puck races and battles, grinding behind the cage and on the boards… Jarvis-lite.

That’s kind of why I’m “in” on those 3. They have enough talent/ability/upside to really POP in the next few years and become core pieces/be one of the best players in the class. But if they don’t max out all their possible upside they still have good auxiliary games that are valuable to a winning team.

I do not see that with Desnoyers (I know people say he’s a 200 ft C… idk), OBrien, Smith (even though I like him), Lakovic. Those guys basically gotta max out their upside to be useful NHLers.

Frondell is very hard to get a read on for me though. I don’t feel confident knocking him nor do I feel confident betting on him haha.

 

[SEALBound]

I really like that Desnoyers and Kotkaniemi comparison on paper, and I've said that O'Brien does give me Cody Glass vibes as well. That said, I think Glass really got hurt by having injuries early in his career and could have developed into a good middle-6 center had he stayed healthy.

I don't think it would be really all that surprising for Eklund to turn into Kapanen 2.0. That's still a useful middle-6 forward (well before he fell off), but it wouldn't surprise me if Eklund ends up being another guy on that McGroarty/Koivunen level rather than better than that.

Considering the strength of the draft and where we are drafting, getting a Kotkaniemi, Glass, or Kapanen would be a win for them. This draft (unless we win the 1/2ov) is merely us adding another McGroarty/Koivunen/Pickering level prospect to the system, ideally at center. I would be THRILLED if a pulled a 2C out of this draft and happy if it was a solid 3C. I'm just not expecting much beyond that.

 

[Jared Grayden]

I do not see that with Desnoyers (I know people say he’s a 200 ft C… idk), OBrien, Smith (even though I like him), Lakovic. Those guys basically gotta max out their upside to be useful NHLers.

Frondell is very hard to get a read on for me though. I don’t feel confident knocking him nor do I feel confident betting on him haha.

Desnoyers skill set and physical tools look very vanilla to me. As I have said about J. Staal, I wouldn't draft a defensive specialist center top five personally. O'Brien I am very skeptical on but would probably take #9. I see the skill set upside, but he really needs to transform his play style to play at NHL pace. Regardless, I doubt any of the centers or Mrtka will be available for #9. Centers and RHD always get highly valued. Smith's physical tools are really impressive. Even though he seems to make poor decisions, there are similar dmen in the NHL that have succeeded. Ceci, Provorov, Broberg are some examples I can think of. I can see it being very system dependent on his value though. I haven't seen much of Lakovic to know, but Scouching did say he was another along with O'Brien and Kindel that Clark would like.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Desnoyers skill set and physical tools look very vanilla to me. As I have said about J. Staal, I wouldn't draft a defensive specialist center top five personally. O'Brien I am very skeptical on but would probably take #9. I see the skill set upside, but he really needs to transform his play style to play at NHL pace. Regardless, I doubt any of the centers or Mrtka will be available for #9. Centers and RHD always get highly valued. Smith's physical tools are really impressive. Even though he seems to make poor decisions, there are similar dmen in the NHL that have succeeded. Ceci, Provorov, Broberg are some examples I can think of. I can see it being very system dependent on his value though. I haven't seen much of Lakovic to know, but Scouching did say he was another along with O'Brien and Kindel that Clark would like.

O’Brien absolutely has upside. I just feel like so much has to go right for him to be a valuable NHLer. It’s one thing to stick. It’s another to be a really valuable piece to a contender. Like if he hits the middle of his floor/ceiling —I see him as a Ryan Strome, PP guy but kinda empty calorie player even if he’s “responsible”

I honestly prefer Kindel to him.

Considering the strength of the draft and where we are drafting, getting a Kotkaniemi, Glass, or Kapanen would be a win for them.

Uhhh what?

Kotkaniemi career would be like a C/C- for this pick. Barely passing and no one is thrilled about it. The others would legit be failing grades and mean we made a terrible pick.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think a player ending up like Kapanen minus the rapid decline due to alcoholism would be a fine pick at #9. A 50 point speedster 2nd line winger that has some play driving capabilities is a totally fine pick at #9. But ending up with what Cody Glass turned out would be a complete dud of a pick, even with how weak the draft is.

The pass/fail threshold for their pick this year should be a middle pair defenseman or impact middle-6 forward. If you get a good 3C or a solid but unspectacular middle pair D, fine. Anything less than that is a fail.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

A 50 point speedster 2nd line winger that has some play driving capabilities is a totally fine pick at #9.

Maybe he paced for it but Kap never once was this over a full season, even before his problems.

I agree with the premise though. This is exactly what I said about Eklund above. Even if he doesn’t become “gritty Nylander” or a 60-70 point guy he can still be 40-50 point Seth Jarvis lite. Which isn’t thrilling but fine.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I mean... I think the point being made here is too not get too worked up over a pick like this lol

 

[Empoleon8771]

Maybe he paced for it but Kap never once was this over a full season, even before his problems.

I agree with the premise though. This is exactly what I said about Eklund above. Even if he doesn’t become “gritty Nylander” or a 60-70 point guy he can still be 40-50 point Seth Jarvis lite. Which isn’t thrilling but fine.

Yeah I'm referring to what Kapanen was in like 2018-2019 with the Leafs, where he had 20 goals and 44 points in 78 games without any PP production. If Eklund ends up a consistent player like that, it's a fine pick. It's also a pretty reasonable projection for Eklund's upside.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I mean... I think the point being made here is too not get too worked up over a pick like this lol

I think something people should realize is that unless they win the lottery this year, they're almost definitely not getting a "franchise player" with this pick. It's another McGroarty caliber prospect, which is still good but not a franchise altering piece.

People can say "if they would have lost more down the stretch, they would have gotten someone like that!", but honestly the only players in this draft this year that even have that potential are Schaefer, Misa and Hagens. And Hagens has a both high upside and a high chance of not hitting that upside. The draft after the top-3 is just a bunch of 2nd line or #3D upside players IMO.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I think something people should realize is that unless they win the lottery this year, they're almost definitely not getting a "franchise player" with this pick. It's another McGroarty caliber prospect, which is still good but not a franchise altering piece.

People can say "if they would have lost more down the stretch, they would have gotten someone like that!", but honestly the only players in this draft this year that even have that potential are Schaefer, Misa and Hagens. And Hagens has a both high upside and a high chance of not hitting that upside. The draft after the top-3 is just a bunch of 2nd line or #3D upside players IMO.

I sure HOPE people understand this.

As it sits it's a 9th pick in a trash draft. Even in a good draft you are looking at dropoff right around that spot. This isn't the NFL.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I'm still hoping against hope that Martone or Hagens somehow falls into this team's lap. I highly doubt it happens, but man that'd be f***in' sick. But even a guy like Desnoyers or Frondell is instantly this team's best prospect, I think.

I also think people are blowing out of proportion this "weak draft" stuff. It's become the new "skating issues". It's a weak draft, but there's definitely still gonna be impact NHL talent. We're not talking a draft where there's like two players (Schaefer, Misa) then a buncha Harkins.

-edit- Also, fwiw, I'm not even sure Schaefer or Misa are bonafide franchise building block type guys. They have higher potential to pan out and be significant players at this level than other guys, but there's no real player I've been looking at where I go "Yeah this is a core piece to build a Cup challenging team around".

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'm still hoping against hope that Martone or Hagens somehow falls into this team's lap. I highly doubt it happens, but man that'd be f***in' sick. But even a guy like Desnoyers or Frondell is instantly this team's best prospect, I think.

I also think people are blowing out of proportion this "weak draft" stuff. It's become the new "skating issues". It's a weak draft, but there's definitely still gonna be impact NHL talent. We're not talking a draft where there's like two players (Schaefer, Misa) then a buncha Harkins.

I think it's debatable enough with McGroarty to just show how unimpressive the top of this draft is.

I think there is a debate to be had there for Desnoyers vs McGroarty, but Desnoyers is going to go like #5 overall while McGroarty was picked #14 in his draft.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I think it's debatable enough with McGroarty to just show how unimpressive the top of this draft is.

I think there is a debate to be had there for Desnoyers vs McGroarty, but Desnoyers is going to go like #5 overall while McGroarty was picked #14 in his draft.

Yeah, I dunno. We'll see I guess. I think a Desnoyers or Frondell has a better chance at being a significant addition to this team simply by way of being a center. I'm an unabashed McG fanboy but I think, if everything pans out perfectly, he's this team's version of Landeskog. Not a play or production driver, but brings value to any line he's on with his on ice IQ and sorta facilitator style.

 

[SEALBound]

Uhhh what?

Kotkaniemi career would be like a C/C- for this pick. Barely passing and no one is thrilled about it. The others would legit be failing grades and mean we made a terrible pick.

Kotkaniemi is a 2/3C signed long term that will reliably get your 30-40pts a year playing 14min/night. Kapanen, before he fell off a cliff, potted 30pts in 40gp for us as a top 6 wing. Before that, he was a decent 40pt player. Glass might too tough to say because he was derailed by injuries so early.

While Kot/KK/CG may not have reach their full potential with us or anyone, I think getting a comparable player in a weak draft at 9/10 would be just fine. I think you may be over-rating the quality of player at the position if you are expecting more than that.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Kotkaniemi is a 2/3C signed long term that will reliably get your 30-40pts a year playing 14min/night. Kapanen, before he fell off a cliff, potted 30pts in 40gp for us as a top 6 wing. Before that, he was a decent 40pt player. Glass might too tough to say because he was derailed by injuries so early.

Like I said I’ll call a 30 point C with zero standout traits passing but barely.

I don’t see how getting a guy who you are saying will pretty much wash out of the league by 28 is a win. Or Glass who’s like a 4C.

the last draft everyone called weak was ‘17. Look at who went 9-20 then. We can do fine.

Even in a redraft of 2012, which is like the WOAT modern draft… there are enough good players to get a better career than Kotka, Kap, Glass. Forsberg went 9th that year.

Gloom and doom is so tired. I’m not even saying they’ll get a star but they can absolutely pull a quality NHLer with this pick.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I'm still hoping against hope that Martone or Hagens somehow falls into this team's lap. I highly doubt it happens, but man that'd be f***in' sick. But even a guy like Desnoyers or Frondell is instantly this team's best prospect, I think.

I also think people are blowing out of proportion this "weak draft" stuff. It's become the new "skating issues". It's a weak draft, but there's definitely still gonna be impact NHL talent. We're not talking a draft where there's like two players (Schaefer, Misa) then a buncha Harkins.

-edit- Also, fwiw, I'm not even sure Schaefer or Misa are bonafide franchise building block type guys. They have higher potential to pan out and be significant players at this level than other guys, but there's no real player I've been looking at where I go "Yeah this is a core piece to build a Cup challenging team around".

Yeah I am not happy with having such an uninspiring joke of a year and drafting 9th. It stinks that someone is gonna fall out of the top 4-5 picks and we can’t take advantage and I don’t think it’s the deepest top 10 to choose from. Like its not 2021 where if you were in that top 9 no matter who it was you knew you were getting a prospect with star potential and on a tier equivalent in talent to Power at 1OA. This year I think it’s very similar back half of top 10 to 2023… after Michkov it’s not like Leonard, Dvorsky, Danielson, Benson, etc are all this batch of star power. They all project to be more valuable support players. Couple will be stars I’m sure but a few won’t play at all.

I also think the idea that drafting 9th = picking amongst a bunch of bums who are so crummy that we should be happy to get Kotkaniemi 2.0 is a bit reactionary to some people calling it a “weak” class. I agree it’s not the most inspiring top 10 but it’s getting overused.

I am hoping Dubas can pull a Nylander/Forsberg like pick off but I think it’s a realistic goal to think we can get a top 4 d-man or top 6 forward.

 

[Peat]

I don’t see how getting a guy who you are saying will pretty much wash out of the league by 28 is a win. Or Glass who’s like a 4C.

Is if you trade him quick for a better player while people are full of hopium about what he could be Just need a Kessel-type guy to trade him for now!

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Is if you trade him quick for a better player while people are full of hopium about what he could be Just need a Kessel-type guy to trade him for now!

Hahaha

But actually true lol. Kind of a big part of the rebuild (or any phase of any franchise) is self awareness and knowing what you’ve actually got in the system before the market. And adjusting accordingly.

I love the Yager move for this reason.

 

[JackFr]

Kap and Glass are both waiver-wire players by their mid-20s. Hopefully we can shoot a little higher than that...

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Kap and Glass are both waiver-wire players by their mid-20s. Hopefully we can shoot a little higher than that...

nah bro the hockey news AI generated mock draft said it’s a down year.

 

[Jared Grayden]

Yeah I am not happy with having such an uninspiring joke of a year and drafting 9th. It stinks that someone is gonna fall out of the top 4-5 picks and we can’t take advantage and I don’t think it’s the deepest top 10 to choose from. Like its not 2021 where if you were in that top 9 no matter who it was you knew you were getting a prospect with star potential and on a tier equivalent in talent to Power at 1OA. This year I think it’s very similar back half of top 10 to 2023… after Michkov it’s not like Leonard, Dvorsky, Danielson, Benson, etc are all this batch of star power. They all project to be more valuable support players. Couple will be stars I’m sure but a few won’t play at all.

I also think the idea that drafting 9th = picking amongst a bunch of bums who are so crummy that we should be happy to get Kotkaniemi 2.0 is a bit reactionary to some people calling it a “weak” class. I agree it’s not the most inspiring top 10 but it’s getting overused.

I am hoping Dubas can pull a Nylander/Forsberg like pick off but I think it’s a realistic goal to think we can get a top 4 d-man or top 6 forward.

Could be like the 2006 draft where the prospect quality drops off a cliff after #7.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Could be like the 2006 draft where the prospect quality drops off a cliff after #7.

could always go off the board and get Giroux in that case

 

[Jared Grayden]

could always go off the board and get Giroux in that case

Kindel = Giroux 2.0. After Dubas trades down and collects an additional 2026 1st. Which will be as loaded as the 2015 draft of course.

 

[Empoleon8771]

FWIW, I was just checking out reddit on the Sullivan to NYR rumor, and apparently the same guy that said it's getting close (Mercogliano) also said the Rangers are likely to hand over their 1st to the Penguins this year because they view the draft next year as notably better.

 

[Peat]

Hahaha

But actually true lol. Kind of a big part of the rebuild (or any phase of any franchise) is self awareness and knowing what you’ve actually got in the system before the market. And adjusting accordingly.

I love the Yager move for this reason.

Tbh, now I've said it, I'd love a team to employ a strategy of only drafting guys they think'll be flashy scorers in junior and trading 90% of them before they turn pro. Look at Calen Addison. Was he actually a good draft pick? No. But did he have great trade value for a guy picked in the late 2nd.

I'd say they'd clean up before the rest of the NHL caught on but, well, Vegas kind of already did. And yeah, they gave away Nick Suzuki doing it which an oopsie, but you can't make an omelet without breaking some eggs.