Prospect Info: Draft 2025 - Waiting for the Draft Lotto

[Pancakes]

Hypothetically if we bink the first pick, would you guys want Schaefer or Misa? Personally I’d go with Misa, but landing a cornerstone LD is a big org need so I see that argument.

I'm always leery of d at first overall but people are pretty high on Schaefer.

 

[T1K]

I'm always leery of d at first overall but people are pretty high on Schaefer.

His stats last year weren’t that impressive and he’s missed a lot of time this year. I don’t really get his ranking, but that speaks to his potential. Misa just seems like more of a sure thing to me.

 

[Jesse]

I will be bummed if one of the top 4/2 Swedes is available at #9OA and they don’t take them. Will obv support the player though.

If those 6 are gone I kinda hope it’s Smith or Kindel. But I really don’t care that much either. They could legit take whoever McKenzie ranked from like 8-25 if my top 6 are off the board and I won’t care. Just seems like one blob of similar talent.

I just feel like drafting Jackson Smith is the same as drafting Joe Morrow or Calen Addison.


Call me crazy, I'd much rather have Aitcheson. Gives you a better two-way element, still has growth potential on offense but is obviously willing to be a carrier/distributor, has the big cannon from the point, and is supremely physical.

I don't dislike Smith, I just don't know how good he is defensively, and to quote Mike Lange: "I've seen that fish before."

 

[The Old Master]

I just feel like drafting Jackson Smith is the same as drafting Joe Morrow or Calen Addison.


Call me crazy, I'd much rather have Aitcheson. Gives you a better two-way element, still has growth potential on offense but is obviously willing to be a carrier/distributor, has the big cannon from the point, and is supremely physical.

I don't dislike Smith, I just don't know how good he is defensively, and to quote Mike Lange: "I've seen that fish before."

smith is having a hard playoff.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I just feel like drafting Jackson Smith is the same as drafting Joe Morrow or Calen Addison.


Call me crazy, I'd much rather have Aitcheson. Gives you a better two-way element, still has growth potential on offense but is obviously willing to be a carrier/distributor, has the big cannon from the point, and is supremely physical.

I don't dislike Smith, I just don't know how good he is defensively, and to quote Mike Lange: "I've seen that fish before."

I think anyone that doesn’t love Smith is valid. I don’t love Smith. But after (my) top 6 guys I like the skating/size/athleticism base. I think the elite athleticism

a) enables bad habits at that level
b) gives him a tremendous floor. He’s gonna be a 6/7D at worst.
C) gives him a tremendous ceiling. While it’s unlikely- he has tools to be low end 1D
D) can’t be coached

So I don’t necessarily disagree with you that he’s the classic “ball of clay” d-man that goes high and who tf knows. He has tremendous development runway. Could be Jack Johnson or he could be Morgan Reilly? If he ends up in the middle you have a middle pair cost controlled 6’3 d-man. Not a home run but not the easiest guys to find either.

Honestly think he’s basically a superior, lefty Brunicke.

Where I disagree is Aitcheson. I think he is classic guy that looks great and valuable now but will struggle to win the way he wins in the NHL in junior. I really am not a fan of how he projects. I think he gives up the zone, and gives up time and space extremely easily. I think he doesn’t have the skating base to be an elite hitter in the NHL. He does have a great shot but that is literally the last tool I care about for defenders. I think you look at guys who could be valuable defensive D in the NHL.. I look at how Ben Danford takes away time and space and then I look at Aitcheson. You either need elite skating or elite positioning. Ideally both. Don’t think he has either.

To me the “good outcome” for Aitcheson is physical 4/5D that can score 8-12 goals a year. Pest version of Chiarot. Is there upside for him to be more? Sure. But imo lack of elite tools limits his projection and I don’t think he has elite brain to overcome. Don’t think he’s a terrible prospect but I do think upside is limited. I’m pretty low on him to consensus- he’s a guy I’d take early 2nd.

So agree Aitcheson is the better player now. Think if you draft for who could be better in 5 years it’s Smith.

But like I said. I really don’t feel very strongly about anyone in this class outside my top 6.

smith is having a hard playoff.

I don’t think you’re drafting him for what he is today. If he was awesome all year with his size and skating he’d be going 3rd. I’d love to get him into college.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I have 2 big concerns with Smith:

1. The CHL has been dogshit at outputting good NHL defensemen from all of their junior leagues in the past couple of years. A majority of the top defensemen breaking into the NHL in the past few years seem to be from NCAA, which is bad because I feel like the CHL has had more defensemen taken.

2. Smith's play style looks like it may not translate well to the pros. It's extremely unlikely that he becomes skilled enough to continue to play the way he has in the WHL, which seems to basically be "skate end to end and dangle around the other team" from watching a lot of clips. I am extremely leery of players who dominate juniors solely from athleticism rather than hockey smarts, and a ton of the highlights I see of Smith are giving me those vibes. He tends to skate himself into problems rather than moving the puck quickly, the puck always moves faster with a pass than with someone carrying it.

His skating is so elite that it makes me tempted to overlook those concerns, but those concerns still absolutely exist.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

To me-

it’s so much more straightforward to get an elite athlete to simplify. Or have an elite but underdeveloped player add strength/physical maturity.

Rather than trying to project guys that kinda need multiple different elements to go right

It’s why I prefer guys like Potter, Smith, Kindel to O’Brien, Martin, Aitcheson

Have wanted Oliver Moore (athlete), Gulyayev (athlete), Nazar (athlete), Nick Robertson (elite shot, needed physical maturity), Holloway (athlete) in past.

You basically gotta be Buium or McGroarty (I.e. exceptional unique player) if you don’t do elite stuff for me to want you in your DY.

I’m not saying that’s always right but I am just trying to show who I value.

 

[Jared Grayden]

I have 2 big concerns with Smith:

1. The CHL has been dogshit at outputting good NHL defensemen from all of their junior leagues in the past couple of years. A majority of the top defensemen breaking into the NHL in the past few years seem to be from NCAA, which is bad because I feel like the CHL has had more defensemen taken.

2. Smith's play style looks like it may not translate well to the pros. It's extremely unlikely that he becomes skilled enough to continue to play the way he has in the WHL, which seems to basically be "skate end to end and dangle around the other team" from watching a lot of clips. I am extremely leery of players who dominate juniors solely from athleticism rather than hockey smarts, and a ton of the highlights I see of Smith are giving me those vibes. He tends to skate himself into problems rather than moving the puck quickly, the puck always moves faster with a pass than with someone carrying it.

His skating is so elite that it makes me tempted to overlook those concerns, but those concerns still absolutely exist.

I think these are fair criticisms. Though recent Czech dmen and Q forwards top prospects have been disappointments too. I definitely view Smith as a higher boom bust candidate. Physically he's a specimen, but mentally he needs to get better or it won't matter.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Yeah ultimately I'm not a no on Smith and would be completely content with picking him based on an upside pick, but he probably wouldn't be my #1 option. I'd feel similarly about drafting Smith as I would about drafting Bear with their 1st, it's definitely riskier but it's making more of a HR swing that this team needs to be making.

 

[Ryder71]

smith is having a hard playoff.

Smith shouldn't even be considered with our 1st pick. We have plenty of good D prospects in the system. We need to go Center or at worst forward. Other than Broz who may or may not be a good depth piece the cupboard is bare. We have to start building down the middle upfront. It's been long overdue beyond the fact that the majority of top 10 OA prospects are Centers. So it makes sense on both fronts (positional strength in this draft and our team need)

 

[Andy99]

Hypothetically if we bink the first pick, would you guys want Schaefer or Misa? Personally I’d go with Misa, but landing a cornerstone LD is a big org need so I see that argument.

I think Dubas would definitely take Schaefer if that happened…

 

[The Old Master]

Smith shouldn't even be considered with our 1st pick. We have plenty of good D prospects in the system. We need to go Center or at worst forward. Other than Broz who may or may not be a good depth piece the cupboard is bare. We have to start building down the middle upfront. It's been long overdue beyond the fact that the majority of top 10 OA prospects are Centers. So it makes sense on both fronts (positional strength in this draft and our team need)

he was one of the guys i would be looking at with the rag's pick.

 

[Jesse]

I think anyone that doesn’t love Smith is valid. I don’t love Smith. But after (my) top 6 guys I like the skating/size/athleticism base. I think the elite athleticism

a) enables bad habits at that level
b) gives him a tremendous floor. He’s gonna be a 6/7D at worst.
C) gives him a tremendous ceiling. While it’s unlikely- he has tools to be low end 1D
D) can’t be coached

So I don’t necessarily disagree with you that he’s the classic “ball of clay” d-man that goes high and who tf knows. He has tremendous development runway. Could be Jack Johnson or he could be Morgan Reilly? If he ends up in the middle you have a middle pair cost controlled 6’3 d-man. Not a home run but not the easiest guys to find either.

Honestly think he’s basically a superior, lefty Brunicke.

Where I disagree is Aitcheson. I think he is classic guy that looks great and valuable now but will struggle to win the way he wins in the NHL in junior. I really am not a fan of how he projects. I think he gives up the zone, and gives up time and space extremely easily. I think he doesn’t have the skating base to be an elite hitter in the NHL. He does have a great shot but that is literally the last tool I care about for defenders. I think you look at guys who could be valuable defensive D in the NHL.. I look at how Ben Danford takes away time and space and then I look at Aitcheson. You either need elite skating or elite positioning. Ideally both. Don’t think he has either.

To me the “good outcome” for Aitcheson is physical 4/5D that can score 8-12 goals a year. Pest version of Chiarot. Is there upside for him to be more? Sure. But imo lack of elite tools limits his projection and I don’t think he has elite brain to overcome. Don’t think he’s a terrible prospect but I do think upside is limited. I’m pretty low on him to consensus- he’s a guy I’d take early 2nd.

So agree Aitcheson is the better player now. Think if you draft for who could be better in 5 years it’s Smith.

But like I said. I really don’t feel very strongly about anyone in this class outside my top 6.


I don’t think you’re drafting him for what he is today. If he was awesome all year with his size and skating he’d be going 3rd. I’d love to get him into college.

I think it goes back to the point of outside of Schaefer, I don't love any D in this draft.

With Aitcheson, I am generally probably way higher on his offensive work than most. He's a much better puck mover than he's given credit for and he spends a good bit of time inside of the circles. I think that's going to naturally develop more. Especially with the encouragement of coaching. He's got the feet to be able to be involved a lot more. Brains-wise, I just wish he'd compromise his teammates a bit less with some of his chasing but a lot of people have that problem.

I feel the way you do about him, but more specific to Mrtka. I just don't get the hype outside of "he's big." I struggled putting together offensive highlights for him because they're so scant, especially in the back half of the year.

 

[The Old Master]

I think it goes back to the point of outside of Schaefer, I don't love any D in this draft.

With Aitcheson, I am generally probably way higher on his offensive work than most. He's a much better puck mover than he's given credit for and he spends a good bit of time inside of the circles. I think that's going to naturally develop more. Especially with the encouragement of coaching. He's got the feet to be able to be involved a lot more. Brains-wise, I just wish he'd compromise his teammates a bit less with some of his chasing but a lot of people have that problem.

I feel the way you do about him, but more specific to Mrtka. I just don't get the hype outside of "he's big." I struggled putting together offensive highlights for him because they're so scant, especially in the back half of the year.

love aitcheson, if we can add some more 1st round picks, he would be a guy that i hope falls to wherever we pick.
edit; i think i like him better than smith

 

[Turin]

I hate Smith because an OFD with the name Smith is the least appealing prospect known to mankind

 

[Jared Grayden]

I hate Smith because an OFD with the name Smith is the least appealing prospect known to mankind

He's not really an offensive dman. More like an undefined athlete. I've said it many times, he reminds me of Broberg a lot.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

With Aitcheson, I am generally probably way higher on his offensive work than most. He's a much better puck mover than he's given credit for and he spends a good bit of time inside of the circles. I think that's going to naturally develop more. Especially with the encouragement of coaching. He's got the feet to be able to be involved a lot more. Brains-wise, I just wish he'd compromise his teammates a bit less with some of his chasing but a lot of people have that problem.

Idk. To me — this is OHL year 3. Offensive creativity is still limited and by year 3 it’s getting tougher to say it’ll come. Like how do we feel if you took this guy at 11OA last season and this is his D+1? I’m not sure him playing low and relying on his shot and threat of his shot is necessarily a good thing for his projection either.

I really really really can’t stress enough how little I like the time and room he gives players. He’s also constantly bailing and leaving his feet against odd man rushes. That coupled with his feet (which are average) is what scares me so much with him. I also think the reason he backs off players is because his feet aren’t elite and he’s giving himself time to react and recover.

I do think it’s a similar tier from of 15 guys after my top 6 so im not really hung up on who they take — so if its him fine- but he’s honestly the one guy I kinda hope they avoid. I’m gonna have to agree to disagree on him.

 

[Ryder71]

he was one of the guys i would be looking at with the rag's pick.

I wouldn't even take him then. I'd prefer two forwards with at least one being a center.

 

[Jesse]

Idk. To me — this is OHL year 3. Offensive creativity is still limited and by year 3 it’s getting tougher to say it’ll come. Like how do we feel if you took this guy at 11OA last season and this is his D+1? I’m not sure him playing low and relying on his shot and threat of his shot is necessarily a good thing for his projection either.

I really really really can’t stress enough how little I like the time and room he gives players. He’s also constantly bailing and leaving his feet against odd man rushes. That coupled with his feet (which are average) is what scares me so much with him. I also think the reason he backs off players is because his feet aren’t elite and he’s giving himself time to react and recover.

I do think it’s a similar tier from of 15 guys after my top 6 so im not really hung up on who they take — so if its him fine- but he’s honestly the one guy I kinda hope they avoid. I’m gonna have to agree to disagree on him.

This is the beauty of these discussions. We can all get a sense of a guy but walk away with varying impressions. It'd be boring as hell if we all agreed all the time. Frankly, I find the draft discussions here significantly more nuanced for reasons that your post just laid out than I get anywhere else.

 

[SEALBound]

Honestly, I think we can cool the waters on Smith just a bit by merely looking at organizational needs and available players at 9-11ov. There's just no scenario where we have to say "well...Smith is clearly the BPA...we can't pass on him".

Reading through the last page or so - are you guys talking about guys like Kindel and Aitchenson as if it's someone to be taken with our 9-11ov pick or are we discussing them as a 2nd 1st round pick if NYR give it to us? That changes the discussion a decent amount.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

This is the beauty of these discussions. We can all get a sense of a guy but walk away with varying impressions. It'd be boring as hell if we all agreed all the time. Frankly, I find the draft discussions here significantly more nuanced for reasons that your post just laid out than I get anywhere else.

Completely agree.

There's just no scenario where we have to say "well...Smith is clearly the BPA...we can't pass on him".

Yeah you simply can’t assume that.

I would bet multiple teams have Smith top 5 on their final list. I would also bet multiple teams have him outside the top 12 too.

Big picture he is a big athletic D who can skate. On average NHL teams are gonna value him. Not saying they’re right or wrong- but they will.

 

[Jesse]

Honestly, I think we can cool the waters on Smith just a bit by merely looking at organizational needs and available players at 9-11ov. There's just no scenario where we have to say "well...Smith is clearly the BPA...we can't pass on him".

Reading through the last page or so - are you guys talking about guys like Kindel and Aitchenson as if it's someone to be taken with our 9-11ov pick or are we discussing them as a 2nd 1st round pick if NYR give it to us? That changes the discussion a decent amount.

I wouldn't take Aitcheson at 9. I'd consider him at 11. I still think the best and most likely combination is one of C/W - in any order, depending on who you get at 9. It can be reversed based on who is available.

For instance, if they go Eklund at 9 - and retain the 11OA, I'd consider Brady Martin with the 2nd choice.

If no good C/W options are around, I'd start considering Aitcheson. But again, I'm probably a much bigger fan of his than a lot of people. Overall, my preference is for that C/W combo.

 

[Lust for Life]

Don't know who to pick but I do know a big chunk of the boards is gonna be upset because it's not their guy

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Don't know who to pick but I do know a big chunk of the boards is gonna be upset because it's not their guy

would be hilarious to go WAY off the board (say Logan Hensler and Jack Nesbitt)

This place freaks out

And then in 5 years it turns out we hit home runs lol

 

[Empoleon8771]

Don't know who to pick but I do know a big chunk of the boards is gonna be upset because it's not their guy

You know people are going to point at random mock drafts and say "picking the #14 ranked guy over the #8 ranked guy is a terrible pick by Dubas!", even though this draft is basically a crapshoot after like #2 overall.

I like Eklund, Kindel and O'Brien, I dislike McQueen and am pretty underwhelmed with Desnoyers and Mrtka. But none of those guys are tangibly "better" prospects than anyone else, and the Penguins sure as hell have more time watching these guys than I do.