Prospect Info: Draft 2025 - Waiting for the Draft Lotto

[SEALBound]

Don't know who to pick but I do know a big chunk of the boards is gonna be upset because it's not their guy

Almost like you've spent some time here, eh?

They could draft Schaeffer, McKenna, Dupont in the next three drafts and people here would still bitch.

 

[Victor Z]

If Dubas takes Aitcheson at 9OV the next 2 words he should hear is "you're fired". Even at 11OV (not that we're likely to possess that pick), no thanks. There are far better options and we don't need to be taking big home-run (probable swing-and-a-miss) cuts THAT early in the draft.

 

[Ryder71]

Desnoyers, Eklund or JOB if any are there at 9th OA and one of Martin, Kindel or Reschny at 11th 0A if we get that pick. As I stated a few days back at least one needs to be a center.

 

[SEALBound]

I wouldn't take Aitcheson at 9. I'd consider him at 11. I still think the best and most likely combination is one of C/W - in any order, depending on who you get at 9. It can be reversed based on who is available.

For instance, if they go Eklund at 9 - and retain the 11OA, I'd consider Brady Martin with the 2nd choice.

If no good C/W options are around, I'd start considering Aitcheson. But again, I'm probably a much bigger fan of his than a lot of people. Overall, my preference is for that C/W combo.

I would agree with that. I think our desperate need for centers outweighs any slight perception of "better" between the dmen and other centers in that 11-13ov space (IF we get the Rags pick).

I'm sure Smith will be great but Brady Martin or Lynden Lakovic are far greater needs. I don't think the difference between is enough to ignore the holes at center.

 

[Jared Grayden]

If Dubas takes Aitcheson at 9OV the next 2 words he should hear is "you're fired". Even at 11OV (not that we're likely to possess that pick), no thanks. There are far better options and we don't need to be taking big home-run (probable swing-and-a-miss) cuts THAT early in the draft.

My concern is that a player who's heavily dependent on physicality being their defining trait should probably be a lot larger than he is. He strikes me as the type that's going to get injured quickly and often in his career. In fact I can't even think of a defenseman his size that's really effective being dominant physical imposing force. Trouba would be the closest and he broke down quickly.

 

[Victor Z]

My concern is that a player who's heavily dependent on physicality being their defining trait should probably be a lot larger than he is. He strikes me as the type that's going to get injured quickly and often in his career. In fact I can't even think of a defenseman his size that's really effective being dominant physical imposing force. Trouba would be the closest and he broke down quickly.

Agreed. Way too risky for that high a pick.

It's not even a "home run swing" like I originally stated (vs. a possible strikeout; implying high risk but high potential reward). It's more like "bunting with 2 strikes": high risk, and not even a particularly significant reward.

The Pens don't get to pick this high in round 1 very often, though we'll probably have many more picks like this during the rest of the interminable Sullivan Eon. Still, let's treat this 9OV as a novelty anyway -- a precious thing not to be handled stupidly.

 

[Ryder71]

I would agree with that. I think our desperate need for centers outweighs any slight perception of "better" between the dmen and other centers in that 11-13ov space (IF we get the Rags pick).

I'm sure Smith will be great but Brady Martin or Lynden Lakovic are far greater needs. I don't think the difference between is enough to ignore the holes at center.

We need a high end Center in the draft if at all possible. I wouldn't mind Eklund though but if we have two 1sts one really needs to be a center.

As Jesse alluded to a combination of say Eklund and then Martin would be great. Or JOB with one of Martin, Reschny or Kindel would be fantastic as well. Just not Sure if any of Desnoyers, Eklund or JOB will be there at 9TH OA.

 

[Jared Grayden]

Agreed. Way too risky for that high a pick.

It's not even a "home run swing" like I originally stated (vs. a possible strikeout; implying high risk but high potential reward). It's more like "bunting with 2 strikes": high risk, and not even a particularly significant reward.

The Pens don't get to pick this high in round 1 very often, though we'll probably have many more picks like this during the rest of the interminable Sullivan Eon. Still, let's treat this 9OV as a novelty anyway -- a precious thing not to be handled stupidly.

I firmly agree with the concept that if there isn't at least one player in the NHL that closely resembles the prospect's playing style, there's a major reason for it. Either it is a very unique prospect or it is not a player profile that translates to the NHL. The three players Aitcheson reminds me of are Trouba, Lindgren, and Dumba. All three had longevity issues from likely constantly getting and playing injured. Not something I want to risk top 10.

 

[Ryder71]

I firmly agree with the concept that if there isn't at least one player in the NHL that closely resembles the prospect's playing style, there's a major reason for it. Either it is a very unique prospect or it is not a player profile that translates to the NHL. The three players Aitcheson reminds me of are Trouba, Lindgren, and Dumba. All three had longevity issues from likely constantly getting and playing injured. Not something I want to risk top 10.

I seriously doubt they'd take Aitcheson, so why are you concerned? I thought they were eyeing up O'Brien, Eklund and Martin? (Which is great if so)

 

[Jared Grayden]

I seriously doubt they'd take Aitcheson, so why are you concerned? I thought they were eyeing up O'Brien, Eklund and Martin? (Which is great if so)

I doubt they would either. Physicality isn't really something I think Clark/Dubas would prioritize. Those are the three I expect they would prefer. Maybe Lakovic and Smith as two more they would be interested in in their range. I'm not as big on Martin. I think he's likely just a safe depth center which I would prefer to not take top 16. Hopefully the Soo connection isn't as strong as it used to be.

 

[Ryder71]

I doubt they would either. Physicality isn't really something I think Clark/Dubas would prioritize. Those are the three I expect they would prefer. Maybe Lakovic and Smith as two more they would be interested in in their range. I'm not as big on Martin. I think he's likely just a safe depth center which I would prefer to not take top 16. Hopefully the Soo connection isn't as strong as it used to be.

Listen! Martin would be a very solid pick. Have you watched video of him? He's a solid all around player. Heart and soul guy physical, relentless good skill. Took a huge step forward from last year to this. Good leadership skills. If he continues to progress I could see him a very solid 2C. To be clear if Desnoyers, OR Eklund OR JOB are there I take one of them 100%. But if they're gone OR we got one of those guys and the other two are gone before our 2hd pick (if Rags give it up} He'd be at or near the top of my list.

This might sound strange but he strikes me as a cross between Brock Boeser and Bobby Clarke.

 

[Jacob]

If the playoffs are going to weigh any on anyone's value Aitcheson is having a good playoffs. O'Brien not so much.

I could see teams valuing Aitcheson in the top 10. I'm not sure I see Dubas, or a Dubas-led scouting staff doing so though. For me he's kind of middle-of-the-first in terms of just broad value but he's so unique of a player that I think if my scouts rated him like, 21st, and i picked 17th I'd still be considering him, ya know? Just a lot going on there that you can't really put a numerical value on.

He's like if there was a 3rd Tkachuk brother and he played D. Or like Gudas with better straight-line skating and a wicked shot.

 

[Jesse]

Listen! Martin would be a very solid pick. Have you watched video of him? He's a solid all around player. Heart and soul guy physical, relentless good skill. Took a huge step forward from last year to this. Good leadership skills. If he continues to progress I could see him a very solid 2C. To be clear if Desnoyers, OR Eklund OR JOB are there I take one of them 100%. But if they're gone OR we got one of those guys and the other two are gone before our 2hd pick (if Rags give it up} He'd be at or near the top of my list.

This might sound strange but he strikes me as a cross between Brock Boeser and Bobby Clarke.

He's significantly more skilled than I thought he was going into my time watching him. I still think he has periods of excitability where he over-dangles out of a prime scoring area, but his skill set is such that it's a low risk pick with that potential for him to continue to develop offensively and refine his real-time processing to hit a much higher ceiling than anyone thought.

 

[chethejet]

Dubas knows he has to add centers and RW's like he added RD last year. He will address LD in FA or trades. If Rangers give up the 11th pick, Martin is the pick. If O'Brien is the pick at 9, Then add a RW then. I suspect Dubas will use this draft to move Karlsson for a player and pick and one of the forwards for Detroits first. Rust makes the most sense if the pens can get a good RW back in the Karlsson deal. Buffalo needs a PP RD badly and Tuch and a second if Tuch is healthy works for me.

 

[Jared Grayden]

I suspect Dubas will use this draft to move Karlsson for a player and pick and one of the forwards for Detroits first. Rust makes the most sense if the pens can get a good RW back in the Karlsson deal. Buffalo needs a PP RD badly and Tuch and a second if Tuch is healthy works for me.

There is a less than 0% chance Karlsson is waiving for Buffalo.

 

[The Old Master]

There is a less than 0% chance Karlsson is waiving for Buffalo.

after sully, any team is going to look good.

 

[PamBallam]

after sully, any team is going to look good.

Ehhh, Buffalo is a tire fire. Beyond even the Pens. They've been drafting top 5 for like 15 years and have basically nothing to show for it lol

 

[Jared Grayden]

after sully, any team is going to look good.

30 other teams Karlsson can waive for. I'd expect his list to be something like LAK, VGK, EDM, COL, DAL, TOR, CAR. TBL, FLA. According to Dreger and Seravelli, Jones only gave three teams at most in COL, DAL, FLA and he still got a solid return.

 

[eXile3]

I remember when Brunicke was drafted he was described as a 3rd pairing defensive defenseman who needs to work on skating. Then at camp he didn’t look like that at all.

I feel like a lot of internet “scouts” never actually watch any of these players.

 

[SEALBound]

We need a high end Center in the draft if at all possible. I wouldn't mind Eklund though but if we have two 1sts one really needs to be a center.

As Jesse alluded to a combination of say Eklund and then Martin would be great. Or JOB with one of Martin, Reschny or Kindel would be fantastic as well. Just not Sure if any of Desnoyers, Eklund or JOB will be there at 9TH OA.

Yeah, we all know that

I keep toying with draft orders based on who I think goes where, even throwing in a surprise or two. I'm starting to get the point of - I'm not sure we get Eklund, either because he gets taken early or because there are others available.

If he goes before 9, we likely have JOB or McQueen available. If one of them gets taken, we have the other. I do think they take JOB over Eklund so the question might be, what is their opinion on McQueen? If we only have the Pens 1st...I hate to say that I think I lean McQueen or even a reach like Brady Martin. I'm just not sure if we can afford to not take a center. But if you have the Rags 1st at 11ish, yeah, take Eklund and then snag Martin or Lakovic or whoever else might drop.

 

[Jared Grayden]

I remember when Brunicke was drafted he was described as a 3rd pairing defensive defenseman who needs to work on skating. Then at camp he didn’t look like that at all.

I feel like a lot of internet “scouts” never actually watch any of these players.

It's not just internet scouts. NHL teams rarely draft better than any random internet scout's list. Reality is drafting is extremely hard to do better than average. Too many unknown variables to predict accurately. Just reinforces why drafting early and often is so valuable.

 

[MeinerEiner]

Karlsson won’t be traded before July 1st. Teams will wait until his bonus is paid.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

It's not just internet scouts. NHL teams rarely draft better than any random internet scout's list. Reality is drafting is extremely hard to do better than average. Too many unknown variables to predict accurately. Just reinforces why drafting early and often is so valuable.

Yeah. Also just the prospects ages being 17-18. Imagine how different drafts would look if draft years were prospects age 20 season

 

[eXile3]

Yeah. Also just the prospects ages being 17-18. Imagine how different drafts would look if draft years were prospects age 20 season

The NFL is that way and they’re 21-23 years old. The Athletic did an article on it a while ago. No team was any better at predicting what players would be more successful.

The only way to get more success was to aggregate more picks.

 

[SEALBound]

Yeah. Also just the prospects ages being 17-18. Imagine how different drafts would look if draft years were prospects age 20 season

There was an interesting proposal on the main boards awhile back to reduce the draft to like 3-4 rounds. You'd have a ton of kids that don't make in their 18yo draft year but who may continue their NCAA, CHL, or Euro league careers and re-enter the draft in the following years. Personally, I think that would make drafting a bit easier if you are getting a known entity at 20 that you can send to the AHL.