Prospect Info: Draft 2025: Is it too late to tank? Asking for a friend

[Ugene Magic]

If we lose and Buffalo loses to Philly in OT, we are 6th

No. the Pens have row on the Flyers and we would then be 7th with Buffalo having row on us.

Ultimately, the Pens need to lose and whatever happens, happens.

 

[The Old Master]

. You make smart moves last summer this team is probably in the playoffs.

if we made the smart moves, we would be picking 1-3

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I still think it's most likely that they get at least Eklund in the draft if their pick falls to #9, it seems like O'Brien and Mrtka are rising a ton going into the draft and that should push Eklund down. I think Eklund is a prime guy to slide between his size and being a winger, I wouldn't bet on him lasting to the NYR pick but I think it's a reasonable bet he lasts until #9.

Obviously you prefer that they end up sitting at #7 or #8 to have a better chance at getting someone like O'Brien or Martone, but I'm not seeing how #9 is some sort of disaster if that ends up occurring.

Schaefer
Misa
Hagens
Martone
Frondell
Eklund
O'Brien
Desnoyers

That's 8.

 

[The Old Master]

We're not winning the Lottery, don't deal in fables!

we are winning the lottery. and i like fables.

 

[Ugene Magic]

Schaefer
Misa
Hagens
Martone
Frondell
Eklund
O'Brien
Desnoyers

That's 8.

With the lottery they could be 10/11/12.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Schaefer
Misa
Hagens
Martone
Frondell
Eklund
O'Brien
Desnoyers

That's 8.

Mrtka is being projected to be in the top-8 at this point. I'd bet that he goes before Eklund due to his size/Eklund's size plus being a RD.

With the lottery they could be 10/11/12.

This is such an unlikely scenario that it's not even worth discussing.

The odds that 2 teams later than the Penguins win the draft lottery are so low that Tankathon isn't even putting up the odds for that to happen.

 

[Tasty Biscuits]

This is such an unlikely scenario that it's not even worth discussing.

The odds that 2 teams later than the Penguins win the draft lottery are so low that Tankathon isn't even putting up the odds for that to happen.

People were so committed to the silly idea that we'd be 10/11 for so long they're looking for any way for it to still happen.

 

[Epic Neal Time]

We're now solidly in the 7-9 range, with the Rangers pick in the 10-12 range, with the assumption that two of the teams above us win the lottery. My top-12 is

Schaefer
Misa
Martone
Frondell
Hagens
O'Brien
Desnoyers
Eklund
Aitcheson
McQueen
Carbonneau
Mrtka

and it looks pretty likely that we will have the ability to get 1 or 2 of that 6-12 group, depending on the Rangers' decision, and I'm pretty happy about that. I can also see some surprises sneaking into the top-10, like a Brady Martin or a Malcolm Spence.

 

[Empoleon8771]

People were so committed to the silly idea that we'd be 10/11 for so long they're looking for any way for it to still happen.

Yeah the odds that the Penguins win the draft lottery is about 4x greater than 2 teams below them winning the draft lottery. It's a silly thing to even consider as a possibility.

It's like talking about how the Penguins can get the #3 overall pick, which is technically possible (#12 wins the #1 pick lottery but can only move up 10 spots to #2, Penguins win the #2 pick lottery but get pushed to #3 due to the #12 team winning the lottery) but would require something crazily unlikely that it's not even worth considering as a possibility.

#10 is possible, Tankathon has it at a 3.2% chance. But #11 would require the Penguins winning their last game, Anaheim losing and also a 1.7% lottery chance of 2 teams jumping them in the standings. #12 isn't even possible.

 

[Guins71]

No. the Pens have row on the Flyers and we would then be 7th with Buffalo having row on us.

Ultimately, the Pens need to lose and whatever happens, happens.

Ahh I thought it was wins first

 

[Ugene Magic]

Ahh I thought it was wins first

That scenario you purposed had both teams tied with the Pens. RW is the tie breaker.

 

[Ryder71]

I'm watching Jesse's YT of Brady Martin.. Love the way he hits. Not dirty or running around but he really drives through guys.

I don't think he linked it yet, here it is



This guy's hard not to like.

IF we pick twice in round one I WANT HIM! Said so a month ago.

 

[Ryder71]

Too many useless games won down the stretch that will end up hurting us. Dallas, Ottawa and in Jersey, 6 useless points that would have had us right now in the top 4 with 72pts. Boston was the big winner in all of this, they probably walk away with Haggens at the draft!!

The Bruins epic Tank would make any fan base proud if you want to get core piece for the future, So much more respect for them as a result. They have their eye on the future. Our fat pig GM wants to cater to the has been coach and the seen better days, washed up, has been core!

Let them go Kyle! Be a man, make them sit. Stop being a beta!

 

[Ryder71]

if we made the smart moves, we would be picking 1-3

YOU get it! You understand the value of getting core pieces for the next generation, instead of catering to a coach and core who's expiration date has LONG SINCE come and gone.

 

[Ugene Magic]

Yeah the odds that the Penguins win the draft lottery is about 4x greater than 2 teams below them winning the draft lottery. It's a silly thing to even consider as a possibility.

It's like talking about how the Penguins can get the #3 overall pick, which is technically possible (#12 wins the #1 pick lottery but can only move up 10 spots to #2, Penguins win the #2 pick lottery but get pushed to #3 due to the #12 team winning the lottery) but would require something crazily unlikely that it's not even worth considering as a possibility.

#10 is possible, Tankathon has it at a 3.2% chance. But #11 would require the Penguins winning their last game, Anaheim losing and also a 1.7% lottery chance of 2 teams jumping them in the standings. #12 isn't even possible.

You are forgetting there are 16 teams in the lottery and can only move up 10 spots.

That's 7 possible teams that have a chance to push the Pens back 2 spots.

I don't know why I put 12, I might have had the old system on my mind where there was a 3 lottery system.

 

[Empoleon8771]

You are forgetting there are 16 teams in the lottery and can only move up 10 spots.

That's 7 possible teams that have a chance to push the Pens back a spot of 2.

I don't know why I put 12, I might have had the old system on my mind where there was a 3 lottery system.

No I'm not, I'm saying that there is like a 1.5%-3% chance of that actually happening.

Some of you seem like you don't understand probability.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

Pronman has updated his rankings. His Top 11 are considered "top of the lineup players," while his Top 5 are considered all-star caliber.

Those 11 players are:
Schaefer
Misa
Desnoyers
Hagens
Martone
Frondell
O'Brien
Eklund
McQueen
Aitcheson
Smith

NHL Draft 2025 prospects ranking: Matthew Schaefer leads Pronman’s April list, Michael Misa follows

The 2025 NHL Draft picture is becoming clearer, with a stronger forward group but less depth of talent on defense.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Ugene Magic]

No I'm not, I'm saying that there is like a 1.5%-3% chance of that actually happening.

Some of you seem like you don't understand probability.

Probability has nothing to do with the fact it "can" happen.

What is your play if it does? Well, the probability said it couldn't.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Probability has nothing to do with the fact it "can" happen.

What is your play if it does? Well, the probability said it couldn't.

Yeah it can happen, just like the Penguins can win the lottery. And if you look at the probabilities, the Penguins are 4x as likely at finishing #1 or #2 than they are at #10 or #11.

 

[Ryder71]

The core should display some unity here and sit out because Letang cannot play. Sid and Geno should show respect to their fallen friend and sit out as a result.

They should be by his side in these tumultuous times and not worry about a stupid hockey game!

They need to man up and do the right thing.

 

[Zirakzigil]

The core should display some unity here and sit out because Letang cannot play. Sid and Geno should show respect to their fallen friend and sit out as a result.

They should be by his side in these tumultuous times and not worry about a stupid hockey game!

They need to man up and do the right thing.

Sid will never bow down to the Caps

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

Holy f*** did Boston put on a clinic of what to do when you're out of it. Pens totally screwed the pootch on this one.

 

[Ugene Magic]

Sid will never bow down to the Caps

The Caps have a chance to win the season series already up 2-1 and outscoring the Pens 14 to 8 with the last game being an 8-3 beat down.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Mrtka is being projected to be in the top-8 at this point. I'd bet that he goes before Eklund due to his size/Eklund's size plus being a RD.

By some, not by others.

If you're picking 9th, you're crossing your fingers that one of the 8 we targeted drops.

After the season we had, getting Mrtka with our 1st would be a real disappointment. Especially if Martone manages to drop to 6 or something.

 

[Empoleon8771]

By some, not by others.

If you're picking 9th, you're crossing your fingers that one of the 8 we targeted drops.

After the season we had, getting Mrtka with our 1st would be a real disappointment. Especially if Martone manages to drop to 6 or something.

I think you're getting worked up over nothing. It's almost a guarantee that the top-8 that you're referring to won't be the top-8 in the draft. There will be draft surprises and guys rising/falling, it's not going to go exactly like how draft rankings in April say they will go.