Salary Cap: Dr Dubas Cap Thread: He wants the Nurse

[plaidchuck]

Regardless the team is in an unenviable state.

Holy f***, it's like no one remembers getting absolutely embarrassed in the POs this year or the fact that Carolina is a juggernaut that isn't going anywhere.

At least until Florida is healthy again, then they go back in their hole. They're good but the east was historically bad this year outside of about 3 teams.

 

[plaidchuck]

Bottom line is the 2018-2023 mismanagement of the team really killed it. Now they have to fill the roster with bodies just to keep the lights on, draft well outside of the top ten, and keep 3-4 vets happy at all times.

 

[Koivunsons]

It's also not a full lineup. Murashov/blom will be there. And i bet we sign at least 1 F of the mutli-million kind (Tolvanen, Marchment, Laine, Bjorkstrand) to replace Mantha and at least one D for Shea/Clifton.

There's also other trades than having to take Nurse. Like Wright, one of the D from Anaheim etc.

Yeah, sure. I'm not opposed to adding something like that. But, I'm also not super interested in giving up actual value.

 

[Peat]

Would Pens fans have any interest in Jack Drury or Nic Roy?

Yes although depending on how much both guys actually play C, you might get better offers from teams that don't have their bottom 6Cs cemented into the line up. And we'll probably be cheap about our offers anyway.

The issue with just saying "don't trade for Nurse and instead sign someone in UFA" is that the UFA class is dogshit on LD and you're not going to get anyone on a high AAV, short term deal. Sure, if you had a Mantha equivalent LD in free agency that would sign for 1 year at $7 million, sure sign them instead of trading for Nurse. But there isn't anyone like that.

That's something people keep ignoring despite it being mentioned. Combining every trade board, the available LD are Rielly, Nurse, Byram, Middleton, Lohrei and Zellweger. The best UFA LDs are Shea, Kulak, Stanley, Ferraro, Lauzon and Oleksiak, and a majority of those guys (Stanley, Ferraro and Lauzon especially) are going to get completely braindead contracts in UFA. There are a couple of RFAs you can speculate shaking away as being available, with Del Mastro, Stastney, Xhekaj and Sebrango feeling like options, but that just feels like more of what they already have (I still want to add Del Mastro though).

People saying "I don't want Nurse because I want to do something better" are ignoring that Nurse is the 2nd best LD available right now, only behind Byram. And considering what Byram would cost in a trade along with the other red flags he has, I'd pretty easily argue that getting paid to take on Nurse is a better option than trading for Byram.

The Pens don't even need to sign or trade for anyone though. Wotherspoon-Girard-Solovyov is hardly impressive but it'll do while waiting for other options if we don't like our current ones.

And you won't persuade anyone who hates the idea of Nurse that waiting isn't better. Sometimes the best trade you make is the one you don't and all of that.

 

[Empoleon8771]

The Pens don't even need to sign or trade for anyone though. Wotherspoon-Girard-Solovyov is hardly impressive but it'll do while waiting for other options if we don't like our current ones.

And you won't persuade anyone who hates the idea of Nurse that waiting isn't better. Sometimes the best trade you make is the one you don't and all of that.

But you're handicapping yourself by having no depth by doing this. One Wotherspoon injury and suddenly you have Graves or Solovyov on your top pair.

Dubas was adamant about wanting to improve the defense this off-season, he's not going to pass up on an upgrade (which Nurse is) just because he has flaws.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

Would Pens fans have any interest in Jack Drury or Nic Roy?

Probably not. We have Blake Lizotte signed for a few more seasons and he will be the fourth-line center. He is probably not as good as either Drury or Roy but none of them should be playing third-line center in an ideal world. Or put another way, offensive teams like Colorado and Pittsburgh should not have any of them as the third-line center.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

But you're handicapping yourself by having no depth by doing this. One Wotherspoon injury and suddenly you have Graves or Solovyov on your top pair.

Dubas was adamant about wanting to improve the defense this off-season, he's not going to pass up on an upgrade (which Nurse is) just because he has flaws.

Sure, but Nurse is nowhere near the only potential left defenseman upgrade we can make. At this point, it seems he is the guy because he played for Sault Ste-Marie and because he was a Team Canada member for the worlds.

This is going to be a bad deal for us unless the Oilers make it worth our while. And if we are to believe Pagnotta that this deal will be finalized at the draft, it probably means that there is at least one pick (if not more) from this year's draft involved.

If that pick(s) is coming our way, cool. If we have to pay for Nurse, I'm sorry but Bowman just evened the score with us.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Sure, but Nurse is nowhere near the only potential left defenseman upgrade we can make. At this point, it seems he is the guy because he played for Sault Ste-Marie and because he was a Team Canada member for the worlds.

This is going to be a bad deal for us unless the Oilers make it worth our while. And if we are to believe Pagnotta that this deal will be finalized at the draft, it probably means that there is at least one pick (if not more) from this year's draft involved.

If that pick(s) is coming our way, cool. If we have to pay for Nurse, I'm sorry but Bowman just evened the score with us.

I already addressed this:

The issue with just saying "don't trade for Nurse and instead sign someone in UFA" is that the UFA class is dogshit on LD and you're not going to get anyone on a high AAV, short term deal. Sure, if you had a Mantha equivalent LD in free agency that would sign for 1 year at $7 million, sure sign them instead of trading for Nurse. But there isn't anyone like that.

That's something people keep ignoring despite it being mentioned. Combining every trade board, the available LD are Rielly, Nurse, Byram, Middleton, Lohrei and Zellweger. The best UFA LDs are Shea, Kulak, Stanley, Ferraro, Lauzon and Oleksiak, and a majority of those guys (Stanley, Ferraro and Lauzon especially) are going to get completely braindead contracts in UFA. There are a couple of RFAs you can speculate shaking away as being available, with Del Mastro, Stastney, Xhekaj and Sebrango feeling like options, but that just feels like more of what they already have (I still want to add Del Mastro though).

People saying "I don't want Nurse because I want to do something better" are ignoring that Nurse is the 2nd best LD available right now, only behind Byram. And considering what Byram would cost in a trade along with the other red flags he has, I'd pretty easily argue that getting paid to take on Nurse is a better option than trading for Byram.

Who are the upgrades? Don't just say "Nurse is nowhere near the only one". What players are out there? Name names.

 

[deakka]

YeahSure, but Nurse is nowhere near the only potential left defenseman upgrade we can make. At this point, it seems he is the guy because he played for Sault Ste-Marie and because he was a Team Canada member for the worlds.

This is going to be a bad deal for us unless the Oilers make it worth our while. And if we are to believe Pagnotta that this deal will be finalized at the draft, it probably means that there is at least one pick (if not more) from this year's draft involved.

If that pick(s) is coming our way, cool. If we have to pay for Nurse, I'm sorry but Bowman just evened the score with us.

Yeah. Us giving up a pick, especially in this draft where we have so few would be miserable.

 

[Peat]

But you're handicapping yourself by having no depth by doing this. One Wotherspoon injury and suddenly you have Graves or Solovyov on your top pair.

Dubas was adamant about wanting to improve the defense this off-season, he's not going to pass up on an upgrade (which Nurse is) just because he has flaws.

Well for one thing, you're not going to persuade people who don't care about a lack of depth because they'll go "oh no, bad things happen, we finally tank, what a shame" to care about a lack of depth.

But in terms of what Dubas wants and will do, Dubas says and wants a lot of things then compromises with reality frequently because he's an opportunist hunting for value. He'll absolutely sail through the offseason doing nothing more than creating bottom pairing competition in the hope of squeezing out more Wotherspoons and Sheas if he doesn't like the price. Doing nothing big now and believing he can tamper with things in season is a real option here. Look at how much last season's defence changed.

And yes, I think there's a strong chance he'll pick up Nurse, and that there's also a chance that when he's done so we'll look at his idea of value and pull a face. But it isn't the only way. It's certainly not the only way for what a lot of people want for the team and it's not the only way for what Dubas wants to accomplish.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Well for one thing, you're not going to persuade people who don't care about a lack of depth because they'll go "oh no, bad things happen, we finally tank, what a shame" to care about a lack of depth.

But in terms of what Dubas wants and will do, Dubas says and wants a lot of things then compromises with reality frequently because he's an opportunist hunting for value. He'll absolutely sail through the offseason doing nothing more than creating bottom pairing competition in the hope of squeezing out more Wotherspoons and Sheas if he doesn't like the price. Doing nothing big now and believing he can tamper with things in season is a real option here. Look at how much last season's defence changed.

And yes, I think there's a strong chance he'll pick up Nurse, and that there's also a chance that when he's done so we'll look at his idea of value and pull a face. But it isn't the only way. It's certainly not the only way for what a lot of people want for the team and it's not the only way for what Dubas wants to accomplish.

At that point, it’s just people being stubborn and refusing to acknowledge the team isn’t tanking

In an ideal world, you have either proven DFD options or semi-proven young DFD that you can either sign or trade for. Think of someone with Zellweger’s track record but a DFD rather than an undersized puck mover. It’s just a crappy situation where there aren’t any of those available. With proven guys, it’s either guys who don’t fit (I’d argue Nurse isn’t a great fit as well) or guys who will be getting stupid UFA contracts. There are a couple of unproven guys I really like, with Del Mastro being the big one, but I can’t see their moves just being adding a Del Mastro or two to the defense. I wouldn’t necessarily mind that, but I’m just skeptical they do it.

The kind of defense I’d like to see is:

DFD or physical TWD-Karlsson
Wotherspoon-Brunicke
Young LD-Letang

For that DFD or physical TWD, your trade options appear to be just Nurse and Middleton. In UFA, you have a few options (like Kulak, Lauzon, Stanley and Ferraro), but I think all of those guys are going to get heinously bad contracts.

 

[Andy99]

At that point, it’s just people being stubborn and refusing to acknowledge the team isn’t tanking

In an ideal world, you have either proven DFD options or semi-proven young DFD that you can either sign or trade for. Think of someone with Zellweger’s track record but a DFD rather than an undersized puck mover. It’s just a crappy situation where there aren’t any of those available. With proven guys, it’s either guys who don’t fit (I’d argue Nurse isn’t a great fit as well) or guys who will be getting stupid UFA contracts. There are a couple of unproven guys I really like, with Del Mastro being the big one, but I can’t see their moves just being adding a Del Mastro or two to the defense. I wouldn’t necessarily mind that, but I’m just skeptical they do it.

The kind of defense I’d like to see is:

DFD or physical TWD-Karlsson
Wotherspoon-Brunicke
Young LD-Letang

For that DFD or physical TWD, your trade options appear to be just Nurse and Middleton. In UFA, you have a few options (like Kulak, Lauzon, Stanley and Ferraro), but I think all of those guys are going to get heinously bad contracts.

If we’re going to pick up a mediocre D man whose team doesn’t want him for cap space, like Dumba last season, at least get one with one or two years left on his shitty contract, not four…no guarantee we’ll be able to move out Nurse in two seasons without a sweetener and turning this into another Graves…we shouldn’t be taking a risk with a contract and player like that for that long

 

[Empoleon8771]

If we’re going to pick up a mediocre D man whose team doesn’t want him for cap space, like Dumba last season, at least get one with one or two years left on his shitty contract, not four…no guarantee we’ll be able to move out Nurse in two seasons without a sweetener and turning this into another Graves…we shouldn’t be taking a risk with a contract and player like that for that long

Why will the Penguins need to move out Nurse in 2 years? I don’t understand how the pro-tankers also suddenly have an issue with getting paid to take on Nurse’s deal. If Nurse sucks in 2 years, that directly benefits the tank.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

I already addressed this:



Who are the upgrades? Don't just say "Nurse is nowhere near the only one". What players are out there? Name names.

Well, you already mentioned Ethan Del Mastro on the main board. He could help us. SEAL has a fetish for Jayden Struble. He could be an option. I like the idea of going the offer sheet route for someone like Arber Xhekaj if the compensation is a third-round pick or second-round pick. Then there are mobile puck movers like Olen Zellweger, Kevin Korchinski and the more expensive Bowen Byram. Maybe an under-the-radar option would be Ryan Johnson in Buffalo. I really like Adam Engstrom in Montreal. That guy can play.

Then there is Braden Schneider, who played both sides last season. He is definitely available and would give us a lot of versatility. And we are only scratching the surface on names.

 

[Andy99]

Why will the Penguins need to move out Nurse in 2 years? I don’t understand how the pro-tankers also suddenly have an issue with getting paid to take on Nurse’s deal. If Nurse sucks in 2 years, that directly benefits the tank.

I’m not a pro-tanker…if Nurse sucks, I want him replaced…I also want us to get younger

 

[PGHPSU99]

We also could trade for an actual good player who’s going to cost a lot on a new contract, you know, like Jason Robertson , instead of trading for some shitty D man…

Not sure about this logic.

We’d rather spend 1sts and a ton of assets and then give a guy a massive contract.

Instead of just adding the 2nd best LHD available on the market for free while also getting picks to do it. Also adding Nurse hardly puts a dent in our cap. You can still make these other moves.

Adding Jason Robertson is crazy for where this team is at right now.

 

[Andy99]

Not sure about this logic.

We’d rather spend 1sts and a ton of assets and then give a guy a massive contract.

Instead of just adding the 2nd best LHD available on the market for free while also getting picks to do it. Also adding Nurse hardly puts a dent in our cap. You can still make these other moves.

Adding Jason Robertson is crazy for where this team is at right now.

I agree on Robertson…he was just an example…but I’d rather spend money getting younger players such as Wright, Bourque, Zell etc than bring on Nurse…I thought that’s what Dubas wanted to do which makes way more sense than Nurse for four years

 

[Jacob]

I just don’t see Graves being involved.

Nurse’s cap hit is 9.25. Graves is 4.5. Nurse plays like a $5-6.5 million dollar d-man, Graves is more like an $850k d-man. If they waive Graves he still eats 3.3 million or so of their cap space. Not much savings for the Oilers, if any. And then they have to replace Nurse.

I see Girard being involved because he kinda replaces Nurse for Edmonton plus some savings and us just keeping Graves because we don’t really need that cap space.

 

[Peat]

In an ideal world, you have either proven DFD options or semi-proven young DFD that you can either sign or trade for. Think of someone with Zellweger’s track record but a DFD rather than an undersized puck mover. It’s just a crappy situation where there aren’t any of those available. With proven guys, it’s either guys who don’t fit (I’d argue Nurse isn’t a great fit as well) or guys who will be getting stupid UFA contracts. There are a couple of unproven guys I really like, with Del Mastro being the big one, but I can’t see their moves just being adding a Del Mastro or two to the defense. I wouldn’t necessarily mind that, but I’m just skeptical they do it.

The kind of defense I’d like to see is:

DFD or physical TWD-Karlsson
Wotherspoon-Brunicke
Young LD-Letang

For that DFD or physical TWD, your trade options appear to be just Nurse and Middleton. In UFA, you have a few options (like Kulak, Lauzon, Stanley and Ferraro), but I think all of those guys are going to get heinously bad contracts.

I want something along those lines too but if the players aren't there, I'd rather they wait than force a square peg into a round hole who is then there blocking things for when they do find the round peg.

And I don't think a Nurse-like guy is a particularly great fit with Karlsson. Nurse's best traits are rushing the puck; but that puck is going to Karlsson at every opportunity. The thing that Karlsson's partner needs most is the savvy to play in his own end vs high end opposition - if Nurse had that, he wouldn't be available.

As such, I'd far rather they stick with Wotherspoon there and look at what makes sense on the other pairings.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I want something along those lines too but if the players aren't there, I'd rather they wait than force a square peg into a round hole who is then there blocking things for when they do find the round peg.

And I don't think a Nurse-like guy is a particularly great fit with Karlsson. Nurse's best traits are rushing the puck; but that puck is going to Karlsson at every opportunity. The thing that Karlsson's partner needs most is the savvy to play in his own end vs high end opposition - if Nurse had that, he wouldn't be available.

As such, I'd far rather they stick with Wotherspoon there and look at what makes sense on the other pairings.

I agree that Nurse isn’t a great fit with Karlsson, or basically any of their defensemen for that matter. I just think him playing with EK is the best way to maximize his value. It’s similar to when Edmonton ran a Nurse-Bouchard pair, the pair doesn’t complement each other that well but the pair was still very successful.

I think the idea partner for Nurse is someone like Marino, a reliable DFD who also moves the puck well. Nurse’s main strengths are his skating, physicality, puck carrying and shooting, while his main weaknesses are his passing (both in transition and playmaking) and defensive awareness. Marino is a pretty good complement for that.

I have no idea if New Jersey would do it, but about the most ideal defense I think you can put together is:

-Trade Rakell to New Jersey for Siegenthaler
-Trade Koivunen to Chicago for Del Mastro

Wotherspoon-Karlsson
Siegenthaler-Brunicke
Del Mastro-Letang
Solovyov, St. Ivany

The issue is I have no idea if New Jersey has any desire to move Siegenthaler, and I figure a couple of people here would complain about trading Rakell for a 29 year old defenseman when he could be sold for younger pieces.

 

[OtherThingsILike]

Would Pens fans have any interest in Jack Drury or Nic Roy?

They're both potentially useful players that we might be interested in, but right now our team needs are on defense, so we're spending more time talking about defensemen than forwards. However, I could see a world where we move a forward (or two) out, in which case Drury or Roy would become desireable.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I just don’t see Graves being involved.

Nurse’s cap hit is 9.25. Graves is 4.5. Nurse plays like a $5-6.5 million dollar d-man, Graves is more like an $850k d-man. If they waive Graves he still eats 3.3 million or so of their cap space. Not much savings for the Oilers, if any. And then they have to replace Nurse.

I see Girard being involved because he kinda replaces Nurse for Edmonton plus some savings and us just keeping Graves because we don’t really need that cap space.

I think Graves is involved because we fans want him to be involved to rid us of his contract. Edmonton probably doesn't want him involved.

However ... they might not have a choice unless they want to sweeten the pot. Including Graves likely means the Oilers might actually get more value for any sort of Nurse deal.

 

[Peat]

I agree that Nurse isn’t a great fit with Karlsson, or basically any of their defensemen for that matter. I just think him playing with EK is the best way to maximize his value. It’s similar to when Edmonton ran a Nurse-Bouchard pair, the pair doesn’t complement each other that well but the pair was still very successful.

Maybe. If memory serves, Bouchard's job is a lot less all situations than Karlsson.

But more to the point, having to arrange the whole blueline around a non-elite guy is a giant red flag. Plus, hell, if we want to maximise guys' values, why isn't Wotherspoon staying on the top pairing? If we're not signing him and might move him, him being a top pairing dman guy two years running makes him hugely valuable.

 

[Empoleon8771]

My guess is that Caleb Jones goes back in the Nurse deal to clear up a spot on LD while they just eat Graves' deal and keep him in WBS.

Maybe. If memory serves, Bouchard's job is a lot less all situations than Karlsson.

But more to the point, having to arrange the whole blueline around a non-elite guy is a giant red flag. Plus, hell, if we want to maximise guys' values, why isn't Wotherspoon staying on the top pairing? If we're not signing him and might move him, him being a top pairing dman guy two years running makes him hugely valuable.

Because you're not maximizing Brunicke by playing Nurse, Girard or someone like that with him. He needs a reliable partner if he's starting in the NHL next year.

The alternative is just having Brunicke start in the AHL next year, which I'm good with. I've mentioned Blankenburg a few times, he's probably the most Wotherspoon-esque guy they can sign in free agency this year. With the Del Mastro for Koivunen swap too, that would give the Penguins:

Wotherspoon-Karlsson
Nurse-Blankenburg
Del Mastro-Letang
Solovyov, St. Ivany

Pickering-Brunicke
Graves-Pietila
Livanavage-Kemp
Laatsch, Harding

Blankenburg has been a reliable but undervalued defenseman in his NHL career so far. He was traded as a rental last year for a 5th and barely played for Colorado. His underlying metrics are very good, it's just that he's 5'9" that makes teams not like him. Coincidentally, that was something very similar to Jordan Spence last off-season too.

 

[Jacob]

I think Brunicke is NHL ready and I think the FO sees it that way as well.